ncsupack1 said:
Civilized said:
hokiewolf said:
Civilized said:
Oldsouljer said:
Civilized said:
Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.
There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.
And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.
The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.
We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.
I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!
I don't even know what this means.
All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.
The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary
Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.
What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?
And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.
Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.
I'm really interested to see this evolve.
Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.
Saying the letter hurt her badly and probably lost her the election isn't just a subjective observation.
Poll aggregators had her at a six or seven point lead around the time the letter dropped. A week later, only days before the election, that lead had dipped sharply to around 3%, with the swing states pulling into a dead heat. She never recovered.
My broader point is that we can talk about all these strategic or electoral flaws Hillary had, how unlikable she was, whatever, but even when you bake all that in she had a six or seven point lead a couple of weeks before election day and right up until that letter came out.
The country didn't push back on Hillary's politics or handling of Trump, or else she wouldn't have had a 6.5 point lead a couple of weeks before the election. The October surprise swung that election for Trump.