Harris 2024

177,622 Views | 2654 Replies | Last: 8 min ago by packgrad
ncsupack1
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El Lobo Loco said:

ncsupack1 said:

Just saw on the news that BLM is now upset for some reason? Going to be watching this one.
Apparently they feel that the Democrats should hold a virtual primary rather than allowing the delegates to anoint the nominee.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/black-lives-matter-demands-dnc-host-virtual-primary-2024-07-23/

BLM said that while President Joe Biden wasn't the organization's preferred candidate, the Democratic Party's actions surrounding his candidacy and dropping out were "troubling."

"Following the primary where millions of Black voters weighed in, after one poor debate performance, the DNC Party elites and billionaire donors bullied Joe Biden out of the race," the group noted.
Thanks for posting. The guy on tv made some good points.
Gulfstream4
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wolfbreath said:

ncsupack1 said:

Just saw on the news that BLM is now upset for some reason? Going to be watching this one. Edit, the man for BLM has a good point. Working on a link.
How long before the left starts labeling people racist if they don't vote for Kamala?


You know it's coming.
GuerrillaPack
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Rat-faced demon spawn are super excited for Kamala!!

https://instagr.am/p/C9xhKdPOTeO
Gulfstream4
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GuerrillaPack said:

Rat-faced demon spawn are super excited for Kamala!!

https://instagr.am/p/C9xhKdPOTeO


Cringe
GuerrillaPack
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Skylitdrive
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Gulfstream4 said:

wolfbreath said:

ncsupack1 said:

Just saw on the news that BLM is now upset for some reason? Going to be watching this one. Edit, the man for BLM has a good point. Working on a link.
How long before the left starts labeling people racist if they don't vote for Kamala?


You know it's coming.


Not long. Remember my black friends, you're only black if you vote for Joe. Democrats- the party of racism.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13663669/amp/msnbc-joy-reid-vote-kamala-harris-president-campaign.html
caryking
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Isn't this interesting?


DrummerboyWolf
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caryking said:

Isn't this interesting?



Cary, sorry a little off base and I don't have email on this site, but Bryson and Trump did a breaking 50 video and I posted that in the Trump 2024 thread if you are interested. A lot of Stitch time on there.

Sorry for the interruption.
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
Oldsouljer
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Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!
caryking
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DrummerboyWolf said:

caryking said:

Isn't this interesting?



Cary, sorry a little off base and I don't have email on this site, but Bryson and Trump did a breaking 50 video and I posted that in the Trump 2024 thread if you are interested. A lot of Stitch time on there.

Sorry for the interruption.
Thanks for that. We knew about it for some time. Trump used to wear only Stitch shirts (the white shirt) however, that one he had on, in that video, doesn't appear to be a Stitch…
Ncsufist
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I thought we were told dems didn't want to ban guns and that confiscation was not something they wanted to do.
dogplasma
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GuerrillaPack said:

dogplasma said:

I know this is getting WAY off topic, but you bring up the 70 gender thing a LOT. Can you please list them?
They've added more. It's now over 80 per this.
I wish you hadn't looked at the answer sheet. A passing score on a closed book test is 80%. No liberal membership card for you today.
dogplasma
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I don't think polls mean much of anything right now. Too much happening and everything changing. Plus, three months is an eternity in poll world, especially with a debate still floating around out there.
GuerrillaPack
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https://instagr.am/p/C9xMuIdMiQ7
Civilized
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Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
hokiewolf
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Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary
Civilized
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hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.
ncsupack1
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Civilized said:

hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.


Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.
Werewolf
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#Devolution #Expand Your Thinking #Eye of The Storm #TheGreatAwakening
Wufpack17
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wolfbreath said:

ncsupack1 said:

Just saw on the news that BLM is now upset for some reason? Going to be watching this one. Edit, the man for BLM has a good point. Working on a link.
How long before the left starts labeling people racist if they don't vote for Kamala?


That started 2 weeks ago…

And it's the same broken record that we heard with Hillary. Much like 16, people will vote for Trump just to spite the left.
TheStorm
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The only thing going on with Kamala and BLM, is that now there is new meat so to speak at the top, and all the different factions that make up their "coalition of misfits" and readying to line up with their hands stuck out...

I'm like 110% sure that she'll be willing to play ball with them (and all the others as they get lined up as well), but that will happen more quietly behind the scenes.

Same old, same old.
Werewolf
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Nothing to come of this, just a short paragraph to the story.
#Devolution #Expand Your Thinking #Eye of The Storm #TheGreatAwakening
packgrad
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lol at Trump looking old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris. Talk about TDS. Blinded by his scream at the sky rage. Harris is generally disliked even within her own party. We all know that most Dems are sheep like civ so they will line up behind her and spout whatever propaganda they are told. Harris will get beaten worse than Biden would have though. Especially the more she speaks.
TheStorm
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Werewolf said:

Nothing to come of this, just a short paragraph to the story.

Stupid. Like our country really needs more of this dumb **** .
Oldsouljer
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Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
These are simple numbers. If you can comprehend Kamala's word salads, this should be easy.
caryking
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packgrad said:

lol at Trump looking old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris. Talk about TDS. Blinded by his scream at the sky rage. Harris is generally disliked even within her own party. We all know that most Dems are sheep like civ so they will line up behind her and spout whatever propaganda they are told. Harris will get beaten worse than Biden would have though. Especially the more she speaks.
Not really. She was liked for years as she worked her way up, in politics…. Willie Brown
DrummerboyWolf
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packgrad said:

lol at Trump looking old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris. Talk about TDS. Blinded by his scream at the sky rage. Harris is generally disliked even within her own party. We all know that most Dems are sheep like civ so they will line up behind her and spout whatever propaganda they are told. Harris will get beaten worse than Biden would have though. Especially the more she speaks.
She has lost 92% of her staff since becoming VP. Nobody likes her. Nobody except for maybe Montel and Willie Brown or others who have gotten the booty call.

https://thefederalist.com/2024/07/23/92-percent-of-kamala-harris-staff-left-in-her-first-three-years-as-vp/
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
ncsupack1
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TheStorm said:

Werewolf said:

Nothing to come of this, just a short paragraph to the story.

Stupid. Like our country really needs more of this dumb **** .


Stupid indeed.
Civilized
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ncsupack1 said:

Civilized said:

hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.


Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.

Saying the letter hurt her badly and probably lost her the election isn't just a subjective observation.

Poll aggregators had her at a six or seven point lead around the time the letter dropped. A week later, only days before the election, that lead had dipped sharply to around 3%, with the swing states pulling into a dead heat. She never recovered.

My broader point is that we can talk about all these strategic or electoral flaws Hillary had, how unlikable she was, whatever, but even when you bake all that in she had a six or seven point lead a couple of weeks before election day and right up until that letter came out.

The country didn't push back on Hillary's politics or handling of Trump, or else she wouldn't have had a 6.5 point lead a couple of weeks before the election. The October surprise swung that election for Trump.
TheStorm
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Civilized said:

ncsupack1 said:

Civilized said:

hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.


Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.

Saying the letter hurt her badly and probably lost her the election isn't just a subjective observation.

Poll aggregators had her at a six or seven point lead around the time the letter dropped. A week later, only days before the election, that lead had dipped sharply to around 3%, with the swing states pulling into a dead heat. She never recovered.

My broader point is that we can talk about all these strategic or electoral flaws Hillary had, how unlikable she was, whatever, but even when you bake all that in she had a six or seven point lead a couple of weeks before election day and right up until that letter came out.

The country didn't push back on Hillary's politics or handling of Trump, or else she wouldn't have had a 6.5 point lead a couple of weeks before the election. The October surprise swung that election for Trump.
Was the October surprise factual?
packgrad
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I look forward to the gaslighting from the usuals that Kamala wasn't the "border czar" for the Biden admin. I see it has already started on X.
Wufpack17
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https://apnews.com/general-news-3400f56255e000547d1ca3ce1aa6b8e9

" President Joe Biden has tapped Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the White House effort to tackle the migration challenge at the U.S. southern border and work with Central American nations to address root causes of the problem."

"In delegating the matter to Harris, Biden is seeking to replicate a dynamic that played out when he served as President Barack Obama's vice president. Obama turned to Biden in his first term to lead the White House effort to draw down U.S. troops in Iraq and oversee implementation of stimulus in response to the Great Recession."

"Harris is tasked with overseeing diplomatic efforts to deal with issues spurring migration in the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, as well as pressing them to strengthen enforcement on their own borders, administration officials said. She's also tasked with developing and implementing a long-term strategy that gets at the root causes of migration from those countries."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, with all of those FACTS being shared back in 2021? USA Today dropped this yesterday. A "fact check", which is entirely false.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/07/23/kamala-harris-not-border-czar-of-biden-administration-fact-check/74498717007/
"Harris' border work was on 'root causes' of migration; she wasn't in charge | Fact check"
Wufpack17
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Civilized said:

ncsupack1 said:

Civilized said:

hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.


Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.

Saying the letter hurt her badly and probably lost her the election isn't just a subjective observation.

Poll aggregators had her at a six or seven point lead around the time the letter dropped. A week later, only days before the election, that lead had dipped sharply to around 3%, with the swing states pulling into a dead heat. She never recovered.

My broader point is that we can talk about all these strategic or electoral flaws Hillary had, how unlikable she was, whatever, but even when you bake all that in she had a six or seven point lead a couple of weeks before election day and right up until that letter came out.

The country didn't push back on Hillary's politics or handling of Trump, or else she wouldn't have had a 6.5 point lead a couple of weeks before the election. The October surprise swung that election for Trump.
Trump didn't win because of some letter. He won because he campaigned in places that Hillary wouldn't. The pollsters were either fudging data or weren't trying to gather the best information.

Needless to say, the polls were wildly incorrect.
Civilized
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Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
These are simple numbers. If you can comprehend Kamala's word salads, this should be easy.

What do the numbers tell you? That more Democrats were polled? Pollsters weight data to account for that.
ncsupack1
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Civilized said:

ncsupack1 said:

Civilized said:

hokiewolf said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Y'all are seeing what you want to see if you think "the polls" are showing Harris underperforming. Underperforming, relative to what? Polls and betting markets both have her outpacing Biden, which is all the Dems thought they would get. There's no ace in the hole that's going to all of a sudden start whooping Trump.

There are few high quality polls since she became the presumptive nominee.

And Reuters is one of the few. It has swung towards Harris from Biden by 6 points since last week. She's now leading Trump in the popular. Even if this was accurate she probably still loses given the Pubs' electoral college advantage but if her fundraising and party support keeps up, who knows what happens.



The polls we all want to see are the swing state polls. They mean a lot more electorally than the general.

We should all wait a week and then start talking about polls again.
Reuters one of the more reputable? Here's their numbers…. sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

I can see why it's a dead heat. The numbers manipulators are back!

I don't even know what this means.

All pollsters weight the political composition of their respondents but regardless it's the relative shift (week over week) that's interesting.

The next couple weeks of data will be interesting. Kamala will absolutely get a fresh face bump relative to Biden and it will be interesting to see how durable it is.
it won't be durable because shell layout her politics and attack Trump aggressively and that will cost her the race just like it did with Hillary

Hillary wins in 2016 but for the Comey letter.

What demographics is Harris going to fare worse with than Clinton?

And since then there's been what's viewed as an attack on reproductive rights by the right, and Trump is more susceptible now than in 2016 when he had much less negative pub to campaign against. The left is more unified against Trump than they were then.

Trump is going to look old, angry, and bumbling next to Harris.

I'm really interested to see this evolve.


Not sure about the letter? I think people in general are and were tired of the Clintons. She was also a poor candidate. Side note, not that this means much, but I work with a few young people who that was their first national election, and all of them voted for Trump. And every one of them said that it was due to a Clinton. Now, these same folks just hate politics and say they aren't voting at all this time. BTW, the letter didn't help her.

Saying the letter hurt her badly and probably lost her the election isn't just a subjective observation.

Poll aggregators had her at a six or seven point lead around the time the letter dropped. A week later, only days before the election, that lead had dipped sharply to around 3%, with the swing states pulling into a dead heat. She never recovered.

My broader point is that we can talk about all these strategic or electoral flaws Hillary had, how unlikable she was, whatever, but even when you bake all that in she had a six or seven point lead a couple of weeks before election day and right up until that letter came out.

The country didn't push back on Hillary's politics or handling of Trump, or else she wouldn't have had a 6.5 point lead a couple of weeks before the election. The October surprise swung that election for Trump.


I agree that there was more to it. But I also don't put a lot of stock in polls and campaign rallies.
 
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