Gulfstream4 said:

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Illegal immigrant arrested after stabbing of teen girl at Indiana baseball game

https://www.foxnews.com/us/illegal-immigrant-arrested-stabbing-teen-girl-indiana-baseball-game-police.amp

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Coming to a town near you courtesy of Mrs. Harris.

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5 people are stabbed to death every day in the US. Many more are stabbed but not killed. Hmmmm, I wonder why Fox News decided to make this particular stabbing a headline?

This is how propaganda works.

Gulfstream4 said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Gulfstream4 said:

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Illegal immigrant arrested after stabbing of teen girl at Indiana baseball game

https://www.foxnews.com/us/illegal-immigrant-arrested-stabbing-teen-girl-indiana-baseball-game-police.amp

- - -

Coming to a town near you courtesy of Mrs. Harris.

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5 people are stabbed to death every day in the US. Many more are stabbed but not killed. Hmmmm, I wonder why Fox News decided to make this particular stabbing a headline?

This is how propaganda works.

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Something-something Fox News…

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Tell dumbass that maybe it has something to do with our open borders under Biden / Harris...

TheStorm said:

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Gulfstream4 said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Gulfstream4 said:

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Illegal immigrant arrested after stabbing of teen girl at Indiana baseball game

https://www.foxnews.com/us/illegal-immigrant-arrested-stabbing-teen-girl-indiana-baseball-game-police.amp

- - -

Coming to a town near you courtesy of Mrs. Harris.

---

5 people are stabbed to death every day in the US. Many more are stabbed but not killed. Hmmmm, I wonder why Fox News decided to make this particular stabbing a headline?

This is how propaganda works.

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Something-something Fox News…

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Tell dumbass that maybe it has something to do with our open borders under Biden / Harris...

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Since he's in his safe space, please tell dumbass that 99.9% of the stabbings this year weren't illegal immigrants. Fox News forgot to breathlessly report about them.

P.S. We don't have open borders. We have a broken asylum system that Republicans refuse to fix so that they can run ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE STABBING KIDS VOTE FOR US ads for the rest of your life.

SmaptyWolf said:

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Since he's in his safe space, please tell dumbass that 99.9% of the stabbings this year weren't illegal immigrants. Fox News forgot to breathlessly report about them.

P.S. We don't have open borders. We have a broken asylum system that Republicans refuse to fix so that they can run ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE STABBING KIDS VOTE FOR US ads for the rest of your life.

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"Broken" because the Democrats have exploited every avenue possible to allow ever more illegals to flood in to the country.

Trump supported a policy that required these asylum seekers to remain in Mexico (since they could seek safe haven there). Per international law, asylum seekers should stay in the first country they are able to flee to and have safe haven. These people from south and central America should seek asylum in the first safe nation they can reach. That would not be the United States, for those traveling though Mexico. They should stay in Mexico.

But apparently Biden and the communists did away with that Trump policy, requiring asylum seekers to remain in Mexico.

What exactly do you and Leftists/Democrats propose as a "fix" to the system? Allowing even more asylum seekers to flood into the country than are already coming in?

Are the communist Democrats proposing a lowering of the number of the asylum seekers allowed into the country as a "fix"??

“I just don’t think Kamala Harris has anything invested in the black or Hispanic experience.” pic.twitter.com/M484mslUK8

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) August 30, 2024

Most Black Americans Have No Idea Who Kamala Even Is. Kamala Harris Is NOT One Of Us. She Is NOT Your Sister Girl, Her Ancestors Are NOT Black American Descendants Of Slavery. She Is A Chameleon Who Changes Colors Based On Who Will Win Her Elections. pic.twitter.com/v6tXrY3FCM

— Nas (@nasescobar316) November 8, 2020

LOL, exposed, once again.

Who panders better??👇🤔 pic.twitter.com/5q2El7cRI5

— J.B.Hasenpheffer (@mommapancakess) September 1, 2024

Kamala leading Trump in the polls I see.

🚨KAMALA BLASTED BY CHICAGO WOMEN: SHE ONLY IDENTIFIES AS BLACK FOR VOTES

"She’s terrible... She tries to get the black vote because if you look at her past, she identified as West Indian.

Now she identifies as African American just for votes."https://t.co/P6Ql5FptPM pic.twitter.com/WkbIceYxSS

— Jen (@jenhsdracing) August 20, 2024

SmaptyWolf said:

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TheStorm said:

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Gulfstream4 said:

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SmaptyWolf said:

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Gulfstream4 said:

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Illegal immigrant arrested after stabbing of teen girl at Indiana baseball game

https://www.foxnews.com/us/illegal-immigrant-arrested-stabbing-teen-girl-indiana-baseball-game-police.amp

- - -

Coming to a town near you courtesy of Mrs. Harris.

---

5 people are stabbed to death every day in the US. Many more are stabbed but not killed. Hmmmm, I wonder why Fox News decided to make this particular stabbing a headline?

This is how propaganda works.

---

Something-something Fox News…

---

Tell dumbass that maybe it has something to do with our open borders under Biden / Harris...

---

Since he's in his safe space, please tell dumbass that 99.9% of the stabbings this year weren't illegal immigrants. Fox News forgot to breathlessly report about them.

P.S. We don't have open borders. We have a broken asylum system that Republicans refuse to fix so that they can run ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE STABBING KIDS VOTE FOR US ads for the rest of your life.

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This.

I've posted this before, but this is a great breakdown of why we are where we are, and why efforts to pin the current state of immigration largely on Biden while ignoring Trump's role (and past administrations' roles) is inaccurate and dumb.

CATO's David Bier explains to Congress Trump's harmful dismantling of immigration policies

Werewolf said:

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Love a good movie, especially a comedy. How bout you, #Sieve?

Kamala says she cleaned her collard greens in a bathtub. Really? Washing food where others wash off their behind? That's beyond belief and plain insulting. Are we supposed to ignore such obvious pandering? pic.twitter.com/2eR69590YK

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) September 1, 2024

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It worked for Kramer on Seinfeld.

This may be a part of what's coming......but almost as a distraction to much greater more damaging occurrences.

BREAKING: 32 Venezuelan gang members reportedly overran an apartment complex in Chicago.

911 audio of the emergency has been released.

"6124 S King: caller says 32 Venezuelans are trespassing in the building, they are showing guns in the courtyard and they have motorcycles in… pic.twitter.com/2zKr1KkW0T

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) September 3, 2024

Civilized said:

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Bas2020 said:

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Kamala has had a terrible last week .

Losing in the betting markets , poll numbers in the Rust Belt were awful . Walz brother comes out against him. Hostage murdered . Bombed the lone CNN interview . Harris campaign going down hill fast .

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LOLOLOL

Keep dreaming.

Harris did fine in the interview, Walz's estranged brother has been a huge MAGA guy for years, and her polling numbers are basically unchanged over the last few weeks.



This thing is going to be a tossup going into Election Day unless Pubs can find some criticism of her and Walz that moderates and undecideds actually care about.

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#Sieve, I gotta hand it to ya, #Kamala is very presidential. Check this out, impressive ending ;-)

THIS IS SO EMBARRASSING 😭 pic.twitter.com/OAv4Lmg6WF

— Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) September 2, 2024

Bas2020 said:

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Civilized said:

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Bas2020 said:

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Kamala has had a terrible last week .

Losing in the betting markets , poll numbers in the Rust Belt were awful . Walz brother comes out against him. Hostage murdered . Bombed the lone CNN interview . Harris campaign going down hill fast .

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LOLOLOL

Keep dreaming.

Harris did fine in the interview, Walz's estranged brother has been a huge MAGA guy for years, and her polling numbers are basically unchanged over the last few weeks.

This thing is going to be a tossup going into Election Day unless Pubs can find some criticism of her and Walz that moderates and undecideds actually care about.

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Hate to sound like a broken record... but you are wrong yet again.

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Nice try. Clearly you have no idea what the difference is between polling averages and model predictions.

You're posting breathless tweets reposting and celebrating Silver's model prediction.

Model predictions aren't polls. They're forward-looking and try to guess what the election outcome will be based on poling but also on a host of other electoral, economic, political, judicial, foreign policy, and other events and trends that may impact the election.

Go look at the polling average I posted and try to identify when Harris' Rust Belt polling numbers turned "awful".

News flash: they never did. She's being hurt by a mild downtick in polling in Pennsylvania last week, not some Rust Belt bloodbath like you're trying to make it sound.

Here's her "awful" swing state/Rust Belt polling:



Silver explains the differences between polling averages and forecasts here:

Public polls are basically crap, because they're tools for manipulation, not information. Internal looks are painting a less rosy picture as pollsters for both campaigns have revealed. It is for that reason, I'm coming to think Harris might do anything to get out of the debate as the rules are currently defined. And why shouldn't she? She's already self-aware of her communication limitations even in the friendliest of media environments. The problem for the rest of us is that the shadowy figures in government seem to have invested deeply in her, and she simply can't crap the bed like Biden did. If they think that's inevitable, Trump better hope he has a real guardian angel watching over him, and the nation as well.

Oldsouljer said:

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Public polls are basically crap, because they're tools for manipulation, not information. Internal looks are painting a less rosy picture as pollsters for both campaigns have revealed. It is for that reason, I'm coming to think Harris might do anything to get out of the debate as the rules are currently defined. And why shouldn't she? She's already self-aware of her communication limitations even in the friendliest of media environments. The problem for the rest of us is that the shadowy figures in government seem to have invested deeply in her, and she simply can't crap the bed like Biden did. If they think that's inevitable, Trump better hope he has a real guardian angel watching over him, and the nation as well.

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Actually, "manipulation" is pretending that you can't actually judge pollsters based on how accurate they were last time and the time before.

And LOL, "shadowy figures". They must not be that shadowy if the Twitter patriots at PleaseBuyMyCrappyPillows.com are on to them.

#daSieve grasping for straws (polls). We each should take our own poll of those around us. Family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, our adult children and their friends. It's easy to see. In my orbit, it's on the order of 80-20 with the 20 most often made up of young women and low-info flakes. #daSieve is gonna own this at some point.

hokiewolf said:

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I've got news for you Civ, polls are also forward projecting.

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No they're not.

They're a snapshot of sentiment at the time of the poll.

By definition they don't project anything.

Modelers, of course, incorporate them into their model, and modelers and everyone else extrapolate from them.

But a poll by itself doesn't project anything.

Polls are like taking a temperature reading. If I tell you it's 68 outside right now, that doesn't tell you what temperature it's going to be five minutes from now or at 2 PM or tomorrow. Snapshots aren't projections.

If your broader point is that polling trends matter and that from polling trends, you can derive some sense of how a candidate's electoral chances change over time, that's obviously true but it's so obvious as to not even be worth mentioning.

The distinction to be made between polls and models/projections Is that very small differences in swing state polling can lead to more outsize model projection differences that fluctuate significantly over time.

Silver's analogy regarding win probability for basketball teams is a great one. Team A scoring a bucket at the buzzer right before halftime may swing the win probability for that team from 47% before the bucket was made to 53% after the bucket, without changing the game's fundamentals or the observation that the game is still effectively a coin flip.

That's Kamala and PA. Her polling there and in all the other Rust Belt states didn't broadly get "much worse" like Bas is hoping/cheerleading for. The change in model prediction over the last week was almost entirely from a small shift in polling in Pennsylvania.

You are inferring with poll results that is how voters are going to vote in November in your response to a model.

hokiewolf said:

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You are inferring with poll results that is how voters are going to vote in November in your response to a model.

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What?

Civilized said:

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hokiewolf said:

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You are inferring with poll results that is how voters are going to vote in November in your response to a model.

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What?

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The fact you don't understand that confirms what we already know about you.

You will vote "D" if they ran a dead fish and you have, at best, a middle school level of intelligence. That is proven daily with your nonsensical posts.

When you are proven wrong you run and hide for a few days then come back like it didn't happen.

Your lack of substance and character speaks volumes of a beta male that has zero backbone.

Maybe that's why you enjoy being the unc guy's cuckboy.

Tell your wife I said "hello."

🚨 JUST IN - Trump holds a NATIONAL lead over Harris, new poll finds

🔴 Trump: 49% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟢 Other: 2%
⚪️ Undecided: 3%

Democracy Institute / Aug. 28-29 / n=1,200LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 4, 2024