Civilized said:
We'll see.
This thread will be awesome to revisit on November 4. Way more fun than scrolling back through game threads.
Yep..someone's gonna be eating crow
Trump Biden Polls
74,434 Views |
810 Replies |
Last: 3 yr ago by Civilized
Yep..someone's gonna be eating crow
I'm not predicting anything. I'm just questioning the belief in these polls.Civilized said:
We'll see.
This thread will be awesome to revisit on November 4. Way more fun than scrolling back through game threads.
Facebook, Comey and Russia are the reason The Donald is President to start with. Never posted on Facebook and never will. They are a fairer company now however.....but I don't forget. Money is still more important than truth....right Mark Zuckerberg?Bas2020 said:Civilized said:Bas2020 said:
Polls are literally right where they were 4 years ago.
No they're not.
Biden has a bigger lead, a bigger share of the popular vote, there are far fewer undecideds, and the undecideds that are out there are leaning more blue than they were in 2016.
The shy/hidden Trump voter effect ain't happening in 2020.
It likely comes down to Florida and PA and Wisconsin. If Trump can carry two of the three, he'll likely win. He's not currently favored to win any of the three.
You are under estimating the 'shy or hidden' voter in this country .
People look at their tv or at their downtowns and see riots & violence . Those same people will feel safe in the voting booth voting against the madness but they don't feel safe telling a pollster , or even their neighbor because of fear of violence or retribution . Heck - I heard on 106.1 in the morning show of caller after caller having signs stolen or crazy messages received for putting up a Trump or Tillis , Forest sign .
I know dozens of people that no longer post publically (Facebook) etc because they are afraid of leftist going after their place of work .
People are scared of the loons , but they won't be scared to vote ... they will be motivated ... and the numbers will shock people . The registration numbers prove this theory but they are being ignored .
Ripper said:If you believe the polls, I have some swamp land in southern Florida to sell you.Civilized said:Bas2020 said:
Polls are literally right where they were 4 years ago.
No they're not.
Biden has a bigger lead, a bigger share of the popular vote, there are far fewer undecideds, and the undecideds that are out there are leaning more blue than they were in 2016.
The shy/hidden Trump voter effect ain't happening in 2020.
It likely comes down to Florida and PA and Wisconsin. If Trump can carry two of the three, he'll likely win. He's not currently favored to win any of the three.
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
I'll just close by saying these are strange times and we don't know who will actually be voting. It's one thing for polls to say a certain number of registered voters prefer Biden. In a a pre 2016 election, that would be gold. In 2020, polling registered voters is just not reliable. They may screw up their mail in ballot or just not show up to the polls this election. Too many variables this year.
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
To summarize the article,ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
LOL, you do realize "Russian Collusion" was a scam perpetrated by Obama, Biden and Clinton with help from the deep state.ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
To still prop up "Russian Collusion" at this point is just LOLOLOLOL hilarious....people are about to go to jail for the hoax.
This has to be the most idiotic post i have seen on this forum. And that's not an easy achievement!Bas2020 said:ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
It will be a lot later than November 4 before we know the results!cowboypack02 said:Civilized said:
We'll see.
This thread will be awesome to revisit on November 4. Way more fun than scrolling back through game threads.
Yep..someone's gonna be eating crow
Bas2020 said:LOL, you do realize "Russian Collusion" was a scam perpetrated by Obama, Biden and Clinton with help from the deep state.ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
To still prop up "Russian Collusion" at this point is just LOLOLOLOL hilarious....people are about to go to jail for the hoax.
"It's still real to me!!"
John Solomon was on Glenn Beck this morning and he said he had some breaking news, hopefully coming out on Monday(he is double checking his sources and making sure it's right) that he says is going to implicate Obama, Biden and the whole bunch of them. He was on at the top of the second hour if you want to listen at Glennbeck.com. Just go to the podcasts and you can find it. Not sure if it's up yet but it will be sometime today.Bas2020 said:LOL, you do realize "Russian Collusion" was a scam perpetrated by Obama, Biden and Clinton with help from the deep state.ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
To still prop up "Russian Collusion" at this point is just LOLOLOLOL hilarious....people are about to go to jail for the hoax.
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
I hope your wrong....the longer it takes for us to know who won the election the more likely people are going to think that there is cheating going on....82TxPackFan said:It will be a lot later than November 4 before we know the results!cowboypack02 said:Civilized said:
We'll see.
This thread will be awesome to revisit on November 4. Way more fun than scrolling back through game threads.
Yep..someone's gonna be eating crow
As I said last week....
IF Trump wins FL, NC, AZ as expected then the ENTIRE race comes down to the Rust Belt.
Trump wins OH.
All Trump needs is PA.
Even if he loses PA, he could still snag just one of Wisconsin, Minnesota & Michigan and still WIN.
IF Trump wins FL, NC, AZ as expected then the ENTIRE race comes down to the Rust Belt.
Trump wins OH.
All Trump needs is PA.
Even if he loses PA, he could still snag just one of Wisconsin, Minnesota & Michigan and still WIN.
I think there's a lot of Trump voters who choose to withhold that information from pollsters and social media. These days it seems like you are automatically a racist, homophobe, etc. if you even have the slightest conservative leanings.
For every 2 polls you find in favor of your candidate, there are 2 more in favor of the other. Just depends on who you like which decides what poll you believe.
RunsWithWolves26 said:
For every 2 polls you find in favor of your candidate, there are 2 more in favor of the other. Just depends on who you like which decides what poll you believe.
Right. So, use poll aggregators that average a bunch of polls.
This. And also, who the heck answers a polling call?Sierrawolf said:
I think there's a lot of Trump voters who choose to withhold that information from pollsters and social media. These days it seems like you are automatically a racist, homophobe, etc. if you even have the slightest conservative leanings.
Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:Ripper said:If you believe the polls, I have some swamp land in southern Florida to sell you.Civilized said:Bas2020 said:
Polls are literally right where they were 4 years ago.
No they're not.
Biden has a bigger lead, a bigger share of the popular vote, there are far fewer undecideds, and the undecideds that are out there are leaning more blue than they were in 2016.
The shy/hidden Trump voter effect ain't happening in 2020.
It likely comes down to Florida and PA and Wisconsin. If Trump can carry two of the three, he'll likely win. He's not currently favored to win any of the three.
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
How is that any different from what I said?Cthepack said:Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
If Trump has a 16% chance of winning as forecast right now, and this same election plays out a million times, he wins one out of every six of those elections.
Point being that forecasts that picked Hillary to win in 2016, giving her a 71% chance of winning, weren't 'wrong' just because Trump won. Using that forecast, you'd predict that Trump would win 3 out of every 10 elections with the same inputs going into the election. It's not probable he'll win but it's not incredibly unlikely either.
Similarly, Trump won't be favored to win this election but it won't be some crazy outcome if he does. He'll likely have a one in five chance, or better, of winning.
Civilized said:How is that any different from what I said?Cthepack said:Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
If Trump has a 16% chance of winning as forecast right now, and this same election plays out a million times, he wins one out of every six of those elections.
Point being that forecasts that picked Hillary to win in 2016, giving her a 71% chance of winning, weren't 'wrong' just because Trump won. Using that forecast, you'd predict that Trump would win 3 out of every 10 elections with the same inputs going into the election. It's not probable he'll win but it's not incredibly unlikely either.
Similarly, Trump won't be favored to win this election but it won't be some crazy outcome if he does. He'll likely have a one in five chance, or better, of winning.
I think people are conflating the popular vote with the EC.
Biden will most likely win the popular vote, but lose the EC.
That's why the "polls" are idiotic. Who the hell cares what polling says in New York or California. Its irrelevant but those people are still being included in polls.
You said Trump wins 1 out of every 6 similar elections. That is not the case. If election 1 to 5 happens and Trump has not won the way you put it he would win election number 6. That is not true. Each election trump has a 1 in 6 chance of winning. He does not win 1 out of every 6, he has a 1 in 6 chance to win each similar election.Civilized said:How is that any different from what I said?Cthepack said:Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
If Trump has a 16% chance of winning as forecast right now, and this same election plays out a million times, he wins one out of every six of those elections.
Point being that forecasts that picked Hillary to win in 2016, giving her a 71% chance of winning, weren't 'wrong' just because Trump won. Using that forecast, you'd predict that Trump would win 3 out of every 10 elections with the same inputs going into the election. It's not probable he'll win but it's not incredibly unlikely either.
Similarly, Trump won't be favored to win this election but it won't be some crazy outcome if he does. He'll likely have a one in five chance, or better, of winning.
This is not correct at all. There are about 2-3 polls I trust and they are scoffed at or not even included in aggregates on websites like RCP. I think Trafalgar might be included on RCP but none of the others are that I look at. They are not "mainstream polls". About 90% of the polls are lined up with an agenda against Trump and GOP. Just down the list on RCP or 270towin. Go to CNN or Fox. All their websites acknowledge crazy polls with Trump so far down it'd be a bigger loss than Mondale in 1984. It is every bit as skewed as the mainstream media itself.RunsWithWolves26 said:
For every 2 polls you find in favor of your candidate, there are 2 more in favor of the other. Just depends on who you like which decides what poll you believe.
There was a poll the other day by Rasmussen Reports that showed Biden with a big lead. The first metric on the page that they were using said they thought 76% of Republicans would vote for Trump. He got 88% last time and I am living proof of a Republican who didn't vote for him but will vote for him. There are lots of people in the same boat, so the metric is completely false. Steve Deace on the Blaze network is a polling junkie. He also didn't vote for Trump and neither did Beck. Deace said as soon as he saw that first bullet point of the poll, he knew it was junk.Bas2020 said:Civilized said:How is that any different from what I said?Cthepack said:Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
If Trump has a 16% chance of winning as forecast right now, and this same election plays out a million times, he wins one out of every six of those elections.
Point being that forecasts that picked Hillary to win in 2016, giving her a 71% chance of winning, weren't 'wrong' just because Trump won. Using that forecast, you'd predict that Trump would win 3 out of every 10 elections with the same inputs going into the election. It's not probable he'll win but it's not incredibly unlikely either.
Similarly, Trump won't be favored to win this election but it won't be some crazy outcome if he does. He'll likely have a one in five chance, or better, of winning.
I think people are conflating the popular vote with the EC.
Biden will most likely win the popular vote, but lose the EC.
That's why the "polls" are idiotic. Who the hell cares what polling says in New York or California. Its irrelevant but those people are still being included in polls.
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
Here's my prediction right now. I could be off a rust belt or 2. But this is my best guess.
Projected states under 5%: FL- Trump +2, NC-Trump +4, AZ- Trump +2, NH- Trump +.5, PA- Trump +2, WI- Trump +1, MN- Trump +1, NE02- Trump +3
<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/xmJnv"><img src="
" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="
" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/xmJnv">270toWin.com</a></small></div>Where is it forecast that Trump has a 16% chance of winning? From a series of flawed polls that over sample Democrats. These polls are also sampling Republicans, mainly in less solid Republican areas, like certain suburbs. And in these areas they are also sampling with more women. Pollsters are very tricky. So even the Republican responses are more watered down than reality.Civilized said:How is that any different from what I said?Cthepack said:Not sure if that is how statistics really work. But not sure you meant it to be about statistics. Trump would have a 1 in 6 chance each time you run the same race. Its like in baseball a .300 hitter that has gone 0 for 7 does not have a higher chance of getting a hit the next 3 at bats. Each time his chance is 30%.Civilized said:
I 'believe' the polls, especially poll aggregators.
Too many people thought 'believing' the polls in 2016 meant Hillary was a shoe-in. Believing those models actually meant she had an almost 30% chance of losing, which she did.
She had narrow leads in several key battleground states and those polls all skewed In the same direction. It only took a small deviation to have outsize electoral implications.
In those same states Biden's leads are larger this go-round and there are far fewer undecideds.
Still, Trump has a 15%-20% chance of winning right now and number likely goes up between now and November 3. That's not 0, or really even close. If you run this same race a million times he wins one out of every six.
If Trump has a 16% chance of winning as forecast right now, and this same election plays out a million times, he wins one out of every six of those elections.
Point being that forecasts that picked Hillary to win in 2016, giving her a 71% chance of winning, weren't 'wrong' just because Trump won. Using that forecast, you'd predict that Trump would win 3 out of every 10 elections with the same inputs going into the election. It's not probable he'll win but it's not incredibly unlikely either.
Similarly, Trump won't be favored to win this election but it won't be some crazy outcome if he does. He'll likely have a one in five chance, or better, of winning.
82TxPackFan said:This has to be the most idiotic post i have seen on this forum. And that's not an easy achievement!Bas2020 said:ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
Tom Nichols -
GOP representatives in the people's house sneer at concepts such as oversight and the separation of powers. Rather than demand accountability from the executive branch on COVID-19, on the Hatch Act, on the Postal Service on anything, really they either repose in sullen silence or they take up the lance for the president and overwhelm committee hearings with Trumpian word salad.
In the long term, sensible conservatives who believe in limited government and the prudent, constitutional stewardship of national power and resources might feel safe to run for national office as Republicans again. Those at the local level who were bullied into silence by their state organizations might be able to come out of hiding and challenge the people who led them to disaster.
Reconstructing the GOP or any center-right party that might one day replace itwill take a long time, and the process will be painful. The remaining opportunists in the GOP will try to avert any kind of reform by making a last-ditch lunge to the right to fill the vacuum left by Trump's culture warring and race-baiting. In the short term, the party might become smaller and more extreme, even as it loses seats. So be it. The hardening of the GOP into a toxic conglomeration of hucksters, quislings, racists, theocrats, and cultists is already happening. The party gladly accepted support from white supremacists and the Russian secret services, and now welcomes QAnon kooks into its caucus. Conservatives must learn that the only way out of "the wilderness" is first to vanquish those who led them there.
No person should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution. Trump has brought the United States to the brink of civil catastrophe, and the Republican Party has protected him from the consequences of all his immoral and illegal actions more ably than even Fred Trump did. Conservatives need to put the current Republican Party out of its and our misery."
Wrong thread.ciscopack said:82TxPackFan said:This has to be the most idiotic post i have seen on this forum. And that's not an easy achievement!Bas2020 said:ciscopack said:
"...Republicans are the party of "American carnage" and Russian collusion, of scams, plots, and weapons-grade contempt for the rule of law. The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level..."
No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.
Tom Nichols -
GOP representatives in the people's house sneer at concepts such as oversight and the separation of powers. Rather than demand accountability from the executive branch on COVID-19, on the Hatch Act, on the Postal Service on anything, really they either repose in sullen silence or they take up the lance for the president and overwhelm committee hearings with Trumpian word salad.
In the long term, sensible conservatives who believe in limited government and the prudent, constitutional stewardship of national power and resources might feel safe to run for national office as Republicans again. Those at the local level who were bullied into silence by their state organizations might be able to come out of hiding and challenge the people who led them to disaster.
Reconstructing the GOP or any center-right party that might one day replace itwill take a long time, and the process will be painful. The remaining opportunists in the GOP will try to avert any kind of reform by making a last-ditch lunge to the right to fill the vacuum left by Trump's culture warring and race-baiting. In the short term, the party might become smaller and more extreme, even as it loses seats. So be it. The hardening of the GOP into a toxic conglomeration of hucksters, quislings, racists, theocrats, and cultists is already happening. The party gladly accepted support from white supremacists and the Russian secret services, and now welcomes QAnon kooks into its caucus. Conservatives must learn that the only way out of "the wilderness" is first to vanquish those who led them there.
No person should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution. Trump has brought the United States to the brink of civil catastrophe, and the Republican Party has protected him from the consequences of all his immoral and illegal actions more ably than even Fred Trump did. Conservatives need to put the current Republican Party out of its and our misery."
ncsualum05 said:This is not correct at all. There are about 2-3 polls I trust and they are scoffed at or not even included in aggregates on websites like RCP. I think Trafalgar might be included on RCP but none of the others are that I look at. They are not "mainstream polls". About 90% of the polls are lined up with an agenda against Trump and GOP. Just down the list on RCP or 270towin. Go to CNN or Fox. All their websites acknowledge crazy polls with Trump so far down it'd be a bigger loss than Mondale in 1984. It is every bit as skewed as the mainstream media itself.RunsWithWolves26 said:
For every 2 polls you find in favor of your candidate, there are 2 more in favor of the other. Just depends on who you like which decides what poll you believe.
Polls are as Fake as the Media that covers and creates them. The polls are used to "shape public perception".
Then during the last week, specially the last two days they will "tighten".
So if Poll X, has Biden ahead 52-42 right now, the poll will tighten to 50-48 a day or two before the election.
Then if Trump wins they say "Ohhh the late deciders went to Trump"... we had no way of projecting that etc.
Hate to quote myself, but here is Steve Deace explaining the polls. There is a story plus a video at the bottom.DrummerboyWolf said:There was a poll the other day by Rasmussen Reports that showed Biden with a big lead. The first metric on the page that they were using said they thought 76% of Republicans would vote for Trump. He got 88% last time and I am living proof of a Republican who didn't vote for him but will vote for him. There are lots of people in the same boat, so the metric is completely false. Steve Deace on the Blaze network is a polling junkie. He also didn't vote for Trump and neither did Beck. Deace said as soon as he saw that first bullet point of the poll, he knew it was junk.Bas2020 said:
That's why the "polls" are idiotic. Who the hell cares what polling says in New York or California. Its irrelevant but those people are still being included in polls.
https://www.theblaze.com/steve-deace/polls?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
I think that happened in 2016. I don't even think they care this year. I think these pollsters are digging in and ready to die on the hill. They'll get plenty of media cover and be right back at it for 2022. Reputation be damned.Bas2020 said:ncsualum05 said:This is not correct at all. There are about 2-3 polls I trust and they are scoffed at or not even included in aggregates on websites like RCP. I think Trafalgar might be included on RCP but none of the others are that I look at. They are not "mainstream polls". About 90% of the polls are lined up with an agenda against Trump and GOP. Just down the list on RCP or 270towin. Go to CNN or Fox. All their websites acknowledge crazy polls with Trump so far down it'd be a bigger loss than Mondale in 1984. It is every bit as skewed as the mainstream media itself.RunsWithWolves26 said:
For every 2 polls you find in favor of your candidate, there are 2 more in favor of the other. Just depends on who you like which decides what poll you believe.
Polls are as Fake as the Media that covers and creates them. The polls are used to "shape public perception".
Then during the last week, specially the last two days they will "tighten".
So if Poll X, has Biden ahead 52-42 right now, the poll will tighten to 50-48 a day or two before the election.
Then if Trump wins they say "Ohhh the late deciders went to Trump"... we had no way of projecting that etc.
Good models account for what you're describing already. It's why Trump had a 30% chance to win in 2016 despite Hillary having a 4-5% popular vote lead heading into election day.
I think that happened moreso with MSM talking heads in 2016. They made it sound like Hillary's chances were all but assured.
I think that happened moreso with MSM talking heads in 2016. They made it sound like Hillary's chances were all but assured.
Featured Stories
See All
Jayden Taylor Excited About The Upcoming Season
by James Henderson
IPS ZOOM CALL ALERT: Zoom Call Announcement at 5PM!
by James Henderson
IPS INTEL: 2025 DL Board 1.0
by Steve Williams
IPS IN 5: Injuries Mounting For NC State
by James Henderson