GuerrillaPack said:

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The fake polls touted by the far Left Establishment media are deliberately rigged, as a psychological weapon. The aim is to provide the illusion that Democrats are "way ahead", in order to demoralize conservative voters from voting, and also psychological studies have shown that around 6% of people will switch their vote to the perceived winner ("bandwagon effect").

The Left uses fake polls to influence the OUTCOME of elections.

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Let me ask you this......and maybe my opinion is wrong? If Biden is way ahead.....isn't that going to cause his voters to be less likely to vote and those who oppose him, to be more likely to vote? I know in Trump World, that type oxymoronic thinking happens often but to me.......if I wanted people to vote for Biden.....I'd tell them Biden is way behind and we need you to make an effort to vote. I hear Biden telling people every day that some polls may be way off and we need everyone to vote. Oxymoronic?

GuerrillaPack said:

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The fake polls touted by the far Left Establishment media are deliberately rigged, as a psychological weapon. The aim is to provide the illusion that Democrats are "way ahead", in order to demoralize conservative voters from voting, and also psychological studies have shown that around 6% of people will switch their vote to the perceived winner ("bandwagon effect").

The Left uses fake polls to influence the OUTCOME of elections.

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Did the far Left Establishment media forget to rig the highly accurate 2018 mid-term polls?

In 2012 when the polls underestimated Obama's support, what was the goal of the far Left Establishment media in that circumstance?

In 2008 when polls were dead on it, what was the Establishment doing there?

The right has built up 2016 like it was the first election ever, and attributed polling inaccuracies to malice when simple polling error is a much more rational explanation. Polling error exists in every poll that's every been conducted. It's inescapable. In 2016, most of the error can likely be traced to one functional shortcoming, the under-sampling of non-college educated white males in the midwest.

And the sample size is lots bigger than one election, ladies and gentlemen; no need to limit you analysis to one election. Have polls shown consistent partisan bias over time? That answer is unequivocally 'No'.

Polling error has always existed. And it vacillates between parties over time. There's no conspiracy.

"my party is completely screwed up at the moment" - Lindsey Graham

ciscopack said:

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Let me ask you this......and maybe my opinion is wrong? If Biden is way ahead.....isn't that going to cause his voters to be less likely to vote and those who oppose him, to be more likely to vote? I know in Trump World, that type oxymoronic thinking happens often but to me.......if I wanted people to vote for Biden.....I'd tell them Biden is way behind and we need you to make an effort to vote. I hear Biden telling people every day that some polls may be way off and we need everyone to vote. Oxymoronic?

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I think that certainly happens...that the false perception of a "big lead for Biden" will discourage some Biden voters from voting, because they think "I don't even need to vote, Biden will win anyway". But I think the psychological effect to demoralize the perceived "losing" side is bigger -- ie, I think that these fake polls will demoralize even more Trump voters. Also, there is the psychological "bandwagon effect" cited in the video I linked, where about 6% of people will switch their vote to the perceived "winner".

GuerrillaPack said:

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ciscopack said:

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Let me ask you this......and maybe my opinion is wrong? If Biden is way ahead.....isn't that going to cause his voters to be less likely to vote and those who oppose him, to be more likely to vote? I know in Trump World, that type oxymoronic thinking happens often but to me.......if I wanted people to vote for Biden.....I'd tell them Biden is way behind and we need you to make an effort to vote. I hear Biden telling people every day that some polls may be way off and we need everyone to vote. Oxymoronic?

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I think that certainly happens...that the false perception of a "big lead for Biden" will discourage some Biden voters from not voting, because they think "I don't even need to vote, Biden will win anyway". But I think the psychological effect to demoralize the perceived "losing" side is bigger -- ie, I think that these fake polls will demoralize even more Trump voters. Also, there is the psychological "bandwagon effect" cited in the video I linked, where about 6% of people will switch their vote to the perceived "winner".

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You may be right about a bandwagon-er but it's really hard to believe one whom is voting is a bandwagon-er..."in this election". You see it as night and day and I certainly do as well. The man and his wife when interviewed on TV last week at their 24th or 27th Trump rally....are not bandwagon.

I have been to 1 short Presidential rally of about 2000 people when Clinton and Gore made a quick stop at Carolina Mudcat Stadium and I got a call 30 minutes earlier to go. Shook both of their hands and bought some badge pins. It's hard to believe the stadium was there in 1992.....'91 I guess it was. I think a famed Wolfpack student at a basketball game; his dad made the thing happen in a rush? I know his dad and granddad used to own that land.

Most of the people I hang with are TRUMPets. I don't try to convince any of them to change their thinking....if/when I do, it inflames them and many of them think Trump is an idiot. I'm not here to change 1 person's mind, I know that ain't happening; I'm here to make the Water Cooler a Democracy and not a Dictatorship.

Trump will be speaking at a rally in Hickory, North Carolina here shortly. I am watching the live stream here, and they say that there is already an estimated crowd of over 25,000 people there.

Over 108k watching on this youtube channel. Pretty impressive!

T- 1 day and the polls still show Biden winning nationally by a lot. Don't take that as me saying the national polls have it right but do they? Is this race going to be called early tomorrow night? Will the 98% of polls showing Biden with a 2-6% lead in most swing states be right? Will the 2-3 polls showing Trump with leads in most swing states be right? Me personally, I wouldn't be shocked if the race was called tomorrow and we end up with a bush/gore scenerio. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if this drug on for a week or so. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting night. Lord help us all.

Based on some quick Googling (and I'm just going to assume the numbers are fairly accurate):

-- Approximately 139 million people voted in 2016.
-- Over 93 million people have cast early votes so far in 2020.

So given the above info, exactly what are most of the polls basing their data on?
Actually speaking to people who have cast their early votes, or rather just random phone polls?

And then a follow-up question to those two above sets of numbers:
-- How many MORE people are expected to vote on Tuesday?
-- How many mail-in ballots will there be, nationwide?
(sub question) -- If some mail-in ballots have already been received by their respective states, have they counted towards that 93 mil "early voter" number?

I just don't see how ANY of these polls can have a truly firm grasp on what's going on, either way.
It seems way more "wishful thinking" and "intuition" than anything that's based on a full picture of the data.

Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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T- 1 day and the polls still show Biden winning nationally by a lot. Don't take that as me saying the national polls have it right but do they? Is this race going to be called early tomorrow night? Will the 98% of polls showing Biden with a 2-6% lead in most swing states be right? Will the 2-3 polls showing Trump with leads in most swing states be right? Me personally, I wouldn't be shocked if the race was called tomorrow and we end up with a bush/gore scenerio. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if this drug on for a week or so. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting night. Lord help us all.

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Setting up for at least several hours of high drama tomorrow and quite possibly for a couple of weeks after.

Biden's lead in most battleground states is smaller than the polling error in those states in 2016. The election outcome is not nearly as assured as an 8.5% national lead would seem to indicate.

From a polling accuracy standpoint, it's set up as Trafalgar and Rasmussen versus pretty much everybody else. Even if they are more accurate than 'the field', is it a case of a broken clock being right twice a day given the very specific electoral environment surrounding Trump, or is there something insightful or superior about their polling methodology that other polls need to learn from?

Will be fascinating to examine.

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We disagree on a lot but this is a good post. I guess even now, 36 hours away from first polls closing, I still can't get a good feel on how things will go. Trump's rally numbers are just crazy high. Approximately 57,000 at a rally in PA, not to mention the other 2/3 he held the same day in that state. That's a crazy amount of people. Biden can't seem to get a school bus load to his but the polls just keep saying he is ahead. I can't figure this out and won't be able to until the election is over. Tomorrow and the days after are going to be crazy. What would.be really crazy is if Trump or Biden locked it up before 2am Wednesday morning. Don't know if that would be helpful or hurtful for the country either way.

Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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T- 1 day and the polls still show Biden winning nationally by a lot. Don't take that as me saying the national polls have it right but do they? Is this race going to be called early tomorrow night? Will the 98% of polls showing Biden with a 2-6% lead in most swing states be right? Will the 2-3 polls showing Trump with leads in most swing states be right? Me personally, I wouldn't be shocked if the race was called tomorrow and we end up with a bush/gore scenerio. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if this drug on for a week or so. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting night. Lord help us all.

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Setting up for at least several hours of high drama tomorrow and quite possibly for a couple of weeks after.

Biden's lead in most battleground states is smaller than the polling error in those states in 2016. The election outcome is not nearly as assured as an 8.5% national lead would seem to indicate.

From a polling accuracy standpoint, it's set up as Trafalgar and Rasmussen versus pretty much everybody else. Even if they are more accurate than 'the field', is it a case of a broken clock being right twice a day given the very specific electoral environment surrounding Trump, or is there something insightful or superior about their polling methodology that other polls need to learn from?

Will be fascinating to examine.

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Or it's blatant propaganda by biased media organizations trying to use polls to shape public opinion .

Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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T- 1 day and the polls still show Biden winning nationally by a lot. Don't take that as me saying the national polls have it right but do they? Is this race going to be called early tomorrow night? Will the 98% of polls showing Biden with a 2-6% lead in most swing states be right? Will the 2-3 polls showing Trump with leads in most swing states be right? Me personally, I wouldn't be shocked if the race was called tomorrow and we end up with a bush/gore scenerio. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if this drug on for a week or so. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting night. Lord help us all.

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Setting up for at least several hours of high drama tomorrow and quite possibly for a couple of weeks after.

Biden's lead in most battleground states is smaller than the polling error in those states in 2016. The election outcome is not nearly as assured as an 8.5% national lead would seem to indicate.

From a polling accuracy standpoint, it's set up as Trafalgar and Rasmussen versus pretty much everybody else. Even if they are more accurate than 'the field', is it a case of a broken clock being right twice a day given the very specific electoral environment surrounding Trump, or is there something insightful or superior about their polling methodology that other polls need to learn from?

Will be fascinating to examine.

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Some polls will be right and some will be wrong.

They'll all claim to have some extra edge next time around that they learned from this election. And they'll be no more accurate then, either.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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T- 1 day and the polls still show Biden winning nationally by a lot. Don't take that as me saying the national polls have it right but do they? Is this race going to be called early tomorrow night? Will the 98% of polls showing Biden with a 2-6% lead in most swing states be right? Will the 2-3 polls showing Trump with leads in most swing states be right? Me personally, I wouldn't be shocked if the race was called tomorrow and we end up with a bush/gore scenerio. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if this drug on for a week or so. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting night. Lord help us all.

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Setting up for at least several hours of high drama tomorrow and quite possibly for a couple of weeks after.

Biden's lead in most battleground states is smaller than the polling error in those states in 2016. The election outcome is not nearly as assured as an 8.5% national lead would seem to indicate.

From a polling accuracy standpoint, it's set up as Trafalgar and Rasmussen versus pretty much everybody else. Even if they are more accurate than 'the field', is it a case of a broken clock being right twice a day given the very specific electoral environment surrounding Trump, or is there something insightful or superior about their polling methodology that other polls need to learn from?

Will be fascinating to examine.

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We disagree on a lot but this is a good post. I guess even now, 36 hours away from first polls closing, I still can't get a good feel on how things will go. Trump's rally numbers are just crazy high. Approximately 57,000 at a rally in PA, not to mention the other 2/3 he held the same day in that state. That's a crazy amount of people. Biden can't seem to get a school bus load to his but the polls just keep saying he is ahead. I can't figure this out and won't be able to until the election is over. Tomorrow and the days after are going to be crazy. What would.be really crazy is if Trump or Biden locked it up before 2am Wednesday morning. Don't know if that would be helpful or hurtful for the country either way.

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I think there will be a consensus by 2:00 AM Wednesday. I'm going to guess that 1-3 states are too close to call, but that 270 has already been reached without those states.
Definitely not a sure thing though

Which way do you think it will go? Let's say PA, OH, and FL aren't called, do you still see the 270 being reached by 2am?

AlleyPack said:

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Based on some quick Googling (and I'm just going to assume the numbers are fairly accurate):

-- Approximately 139 million people voted in 2016.
-- Over 93 million people have cast early votes so far in 2020.

So given the above info, exactly what are most of the polls basing their data on?
Actually speaking to people who have cast their early votes, or rather just random phone polls?

And then a follow-up question to those two above sets of numbers:
-- How many MORE people are expected to vote on Tuesday?
-- How many mail-in ballots will there be, nationwide?
(sub question) -- If some mail-in ballots have already been received by their respective states, have they counted towards that 93 mil "early voter" number?

I just don't see how ANY of these polls can have a truly firm grasp on what's going on, either way.
It seems way more "wishful thinking" and "intuition" than anything that's based on a full picture of the data.

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Professional pollsters are just relying on wishful thinking and intuition? Their work would be borderline useless if that were the case. These unknowns that you're asking about are calculable.

The highest-quality polls historically are live caller phone polls. Pollsters are asking people who they're going to vote for and how likely they are to vote (or if they've already voted, who they've already voted for).

Voters that they reach that have not voted are assigned a probability of voting based on how sure they say they are that they'll vote. Voters that have already voted are normally assigned a probability of 1 to account for their vote already having been cast.

And regarding how firm their grasp is, it depends on what you mean by "truly firm." Their results are not ironclad, that's why there's always polling error.

Historically they're accurate enough that for presidential elections they're within +/- ~3%. In 2016, that was true nationally but at the state level several key states had polling error above 5% which played a key role in picking the likely winner. Trump went on to win several states he was a very small underdog in by less than 1% of the popular vote in those states. Basically that 5% error in several states swung the election his way.

Most of that error was attributable to very few state pollsters adjusting for education level and Trump being disproportionately popular with non-college-educated white men.

Supposedly, many/most state polls have tried to correct for that source of inaccuracy this time around.

We'll see if they did, or if some other source of polling error creeps in this go-round. This is the constant challenge for pollsters; if they could detect and correct for all potential sources of error in advance, there wouldn't be polling error.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Which way do you think it will go? Let's say PA, OH, and FL aren't called, do you still see the 270 being reached by 2am?

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May depend on how NC and GA fall in that scenario.

While still perhaps not technically being in a place where the race can be called, it's hard to fathom a scenario where Biden takes GA and/or NC but loses PA.

PA
Trump 47.8%
Biden 45.9%

10/30-31
Trafalgar

WPNfamily said:

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Absolute best case for our country is this is wrapped up at 2 am Wednesday morning. Any scenario that drags out is not good for the country.

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Even if Trump wins in a landslide, there will be riots. There might even be riots if Biden wins. Everyone should be prepared for civil unrest. If you are not, then you are definitely not paying attention.

WPNfamily said:

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Absolute best case for our country is this is wrapped up at 2 am Wednesday morning. Any scenario that drags out is not good for the country.

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Agree very much.

Why are cities boarding up and preparing for more riots if, as the commie Establishment media would have us believe, there is a "99% chance" that Biden will win -- per their fake polls???

GuerrillaPack said:

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Why are cities boarding up and preparing for more riots if, as the commie Establishment media would have us believe, there is a "99% chance" that Biden will win -- per their fake polls???

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Who is saying Biden has a 99% chance of winning?

Trump's got a chance to win the election that's much greater than 1 in 100.

The only thing there's a near 100% chance of is that Trump will say the election is #RIGGED if he loses. If he wins though, the election is fine.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-polls-matter-point-victory-131012572.html