ncsualum05 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

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I like Trafalgar but remember even they aren't perfect. I think Trump outperforms that poll in NC, easily OH, MI, and PA and WI will be much better as well. I'm not sure I buy polling that has Trump under +5-+6 in Ohio. But I do like Trafalgar... they actually attempt to understand the electorate and not just push a narrative.

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Going to be interesting over the next 8 (excuse me 17-18 days) given the mail in ballots. Trafalgar's accuracy will depend on how well they judged the Trump "silent" supporters.

ncsualum05 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

I like Trafalgar but remember even they aren't perfect. I think Trump outperforms that poll in NC, easily OH, MI, and PA and WI will be much better as well. I'm not sure I buy polling that has Trump under +5-+6 in Ohio. But I do like Trafalgar... they actually attempt to understand the electorate and not just push a narrative.

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LOL, they push an angle, you just like the angle.

Trafalgar is explicit that they think Republicans are under polled/under-represented and they adjust for this premise (as do some other polls, and as do the good model predictions). They just make adjustments whose amplitude is greater than some other pollsters' adjustments (those that adjust, anyway).

They aren't recognizing something that others pollsters don't recognize, they're just pulling the adjustment lever harder.

82TxPackFan said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

I like Trafalgar but remember even they aren't perfect. I think Trump outperforms that poll in NC, easily OH, MI, and PA and WI will be much better as well. I'm not sure I buy polling that has Trump under +5-+6 in Ohio. But I do like Trafalgar... they actually attempt to understand the electorate and not just push a narrative.

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Going to be interesting over the next 8 (excuse me 17-18 days) given the mail in ballots. Trafalgar's accuracy will depend on how well they judged the Trump "silent" supporters.

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I hope that this is corrected over the next day or two by the Supreme Court.

Election day is on the first Tuesday of November and we we should know who will be the next president that day. All this crazy stuff that state supreme courts have passed over the last few days should be dismissed out of hand.

cowboypack02 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

I like Trafalgar but remember even they aren't perfect. I think Trump outperforms that poll in NC, easily OH, MI, and PA and WI will be much better as well. I'm not sure I buy polling that has Trump under +5-+6 in Ohio. But I do like Trafalgar... they actually attempt to understand the electorate and not just push a narrative.

---

Going to be interesting over the next 8 (excuse me 17-18 days) given the mail in ballots. Trafalgar's accuracy will depend on how well they judged the Trump "silent" supporters.

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I hope that this is corrected over the next day or two by the Supreme Court.

Election day is on the first Tuesday of November and we we should know who will be the next president that day. All this crazy stuff that state supreme courts have passed over the last few days should be dismissed out of hand.

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Absolutely agree, but highly doubt it gets straightened out before November 3rd.

Another poll not showing good news for Joe if it's true. It's hard to know, but here you go. Trump campaign has moved the head guy in Ohio to PA because they think the Buckeye State is a lock.

1 week to go. Who's gonna be right and who's gonna be wrong? Is Trump so confident in Ohio that he moved his guy to PA or is it just a false confidence? If Biden so confident he is going to win that he has decided to take the rest of the election cycle off or is he just worn out? We will find out a lot in 7 days but probably won't know everything for a few weeks afterwards.

A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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1 week to go. Who's gonna be right and who's gonna be wrong? Is Trump so confident in Ohio that he moved his guy to PA or is it just a false confidence? If Biden so confident he is going to win that he has decided to take the rest of the election cycle off or is he just worn out? We will find out a lot in 7 days but probably won't know everything for a few weeks afterwards.

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I can see Trump being confident to a fault because that's who he is.

For Biden I just don't think that he can keep up and keep his wits about him. My guess is that the people who are running his campaign have thought about it and decided that they will fair better with Joe not having the chance to absolutely stick his foot in his mount on the campaign trail for the next week and a half

AlleyPack said:

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A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

---

The Supreme Court has already ruled on several states for ballots. They ruled on Wisconsin yesterday. Votes have to be in by a certain time on election day and not several days after. They tied on PA last week and that went back to the Circuit Court. John Roberts for some reason voted differently than he did yesterday. That one might come back. NC will be filing and I imagine with ACB there, Cooper and the NC Board of Elections 9 day grace period will not survive. The legislature decides election laws and not the Governor.

Most states ratify their election results through the Secretary of State and after election day they have a certain time frame to get their final results in. It's a process like that and may be different in each state.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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AlleyPack said:

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A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

---

The Supreme Court has already ruled on several states for ballots. They ruled on Wisconsin yesterday. Votes have to be in by a certain time on election day and not several days after. They tied on PA last week and that went back to the Circuit Court. John Roberts for some reason voted differently than he did yesterday. That one might come back. NC will be filing and I imagine with ACB there, Cooper and the NC Board of Elections 9 day grace period will not survive. The legislature decides election laws and not the Governor.

Most states ratify their election results through the Secretary of State and after election day they have a certain time frame to get their final results in. It's a process like that and may be different in each state.

---

Thanks.

Has there been an honest (non-partisan) opinion/assessment of when we'll REALLY know who won the election?
Meaning... is there a chance that it will actually be known on the night of 11/3... or is there zero chance of that, and it won't be until 11/4, or 11/5, or much later, etc.?

Has any official, non-partisan statement on this topic been made by anyone? (I honestly don't know, b/c I haven't been following any of the main media entities.)

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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1 week to go. Who's gonna be right and who's gonna be wrong? Is Trump so confident in Ohio that he moved his guy to PA or is it just a false confidence? If Biden so confident he is going to win that he has decided to take the rest of the election cycle off or is he just worn out? We will find out a lot in 7 days but probably won't know everything for a few weeks afterwards.

---

I doubt it's as much 'so confident' in OH as PA likely being the tipping point and just being incredibly important.

If Trump loses PA, his chances don't dive to zero, but it's not far off.

AlleyPack said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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AlleyPack said:

---

A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

---

The Supreme Court has already ruled on several states for ballots. They ruled on Wisconsin yesterday. Votes have to be in by a certain time on election day and not several days after. They tied on PA last week and that went back to the Circuit Court. John Roberts for some reason voted differently than he did yesterday. That one might come back. NC will be filing and I imagine with ACB there, Cooper and the NC Board of Elections 9 day grace period will not survive. The legislature decides election laws and not the Governor.

Most states ratify their election results through the Secretary of State and after election day they have a certain time frame to get their final results in. It's a process like that and may be different in each state.

---

Thanks.

Has there been an honest (non-partisan) opinion/assessment of when we'll REALLY know who won the election?
Meaning... is there a chance that it will actually be known on the night of 11/3... or is there zero chance of that, and it won't be until 11/4, or 11/5, or much later, etc.?

Has any official, non-partisan statement on this topic been made by anyone? (I honestly don't know, b/c I haven't been following any of the main media entities.)

---

No one can say for sure because it depends on who does what in which states.

The sun belt states like AZ, FL, and NC are allegedly in a position to announce results more quickly. If Biden wins one or multiple sun belt states, the horse race is basically over.

Bit if Biden does poorly in the sun belt, it may push results out 1-2 weeks or more because the midwest's systems are not set up to return results as quickly (different mail-in procedures, etc.)

AlleyPack said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

---

AlleyPack said:

---

A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

---

The Supreme Court has already ruled on several states for ballots. They ruled on Wisconsin yesterday. Votes have to be in by a certain time on election day and not several days after. They tied on PA last week and that went back to the Circuit Court. John Roberts for some reason voted differently than he did yesterday. That one might come back. NC will be filing and I imagine with ACB there, Cooper and the NC Board of Elections 9 day grace period will not survive. The legislature decides election laws and not the Governor.

Most states ratify their election results through the Secretary of State and after election day they have a certain time frame to get their final results in. It's a process like that and may be different in each state.

---

Thanks.

Has there been an honest (non-partisan) opinion/assessment of when we'll REALLY know who won the election?
Meaning... is there a chance that it will actually be known on the night of 11/3... or is there zero chance of that, and it won't be until 11/4, or 11/5, or much later, etc.?

Has any official, non-partisan statement on this topic been made by anyone? (I honestly don't know, b/c I haven't been following any of the main media entities.)

---

The media and the Democrats have been saying for weeks, look for a Trump landslide on Election night, but then it will turn into a Biden victory later. I don't think the people will stand for that to happen, but who knows. There are going to be riots in the streets if Trump wins. That has been guaranteed by the left. Nobody knows what is going to happen.

AlleyPack said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

---

AlleyPack said:

---

A question regarding election night:

Will some states be able to be "called" even considering that some mail-in votes haven't been counted yet?
Meaning... will it be known heading into election night that, for example, N.C. has 500k mail-in votes to be counted?
So if one of the candidates is leading in N.C. by more than 500k votes once the in-person polls close, can the state be called?

So the first question would be: do mail-in ballots have to be officially requested? Which could make the official number of still-to-be-counted votes known.
And if so, will those numbers be known on election night?

(hopefully that all makes sense)

---

The Supreme Court has already ruled on several states for ballots. They ruled on Wisconsin yesterday. Votes have to be in by a certain time on election day and not several days after. They tied on PA last week and that went back to the Circuit Court. John Roberts for some reason voted differently than he did yesterday. That one might come back. NC will be filing and I imagine with ACB there, Cooper and the NC Board of Elections 9 day grace period will not survive. The legislature decides election laws and not the Governor.

Most states ratify their election results through the Secretary of State and after election day they have a certain time frame to get their final results in. It's a process like that and may be different in each state.

---

Thanks.

Has there been an honest (non-partisan) opinion/assessment of when we'll REALLY know who won the election?
Meaning... is there a chance that it will actually be known on the night of 11/3... or is there zero chance of that, and it won't be until 11/4, or 11/5, or much later, etc.?

Has any official, non-partisan statement on this topic been made by anyone? (I honestly don't know, b/c I haven't been following any of the main media entities.)

---

It could be anything from election night to several weeks after. It all depends on the margins in the battleground states.

Most states that are safe Red/Blue will be called on election night. Regardless of mail in voting, margins will be high enough that the states can be called.

Battleground states could be called called on election night, or could take a couple days. If we see razor thin margins, there may be a delay. Personally I think we will have 45+ states called by election night, with 0-5 outstanding. In this scenario, you could have several states outstanding, but still have enough ready to declare a winner.

Now if there are controversies on some states with small margins, and the overall EC count is close, you could see court cases that drag on for a couple weeks. This is the worst scenario for everyone. I expect the losing party, whoever it is, to cry foul on the election results.

The Electoral College meets, Monday, December 12, 2020.
Congress meets Jan. 6 to certify the Electoral votes, and declare the winner.
It gets a little sticky if there is no winner in the Electoral College,

Repost 1 week out!

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Also Trump might even win popular vote. I think it's around 1% possibly Biden's way but close.

Senate stays GOP 52-48. McSally might actually pull off a late stunner in AZ though. If that happens 53-47 but I'll stick to 52-48 for now

Don't know about house.. .I'll assume Dems keep by slimmer majority but you never know with the Trump base out there.

And I believe that Roy Cooper will lose re election but this race is so tight thats not high confidence.

ncsualum05 said:

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Don't know how you are so confident but I gotta hand it to you. You've been consistent this entire time. Either riding the wave or going down with the ship. Only time will tell.

Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

You know, it's going to be a complete #### show trying to figure out who won this. We might not know until Christmas.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

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I would be surprised if Georgia is all that close. I dont think Texas will be this year, but it absolutely will be in 2024. As everyone with a functioning brain is leaving California, they have to go ruin somewhere else now.

FlossyDFlynt said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

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I would be surprised if Georgia is all that close. I dont think Texas will be this year, but it absolutely will be in 2024. As everyone with a functioning brain is leaving California, they have to go ruin somewhere else now.

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It would be a twist to see Texas in play because everyone leaving California and then California being in play because everyone went to Texas

cowboypack02 said:

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FlossyDFlynt said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

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I would be surprised if Georgia is all that close. I dont think Texas will be this year, but it absolutely will be in 2024. As everyone with a functioning brain is leaving California, they have to go ruin somewhere else now.

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It would be a twist to see Texas in play because everyone leaving California and then California being in play because everyone went to Texas

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It would be a disaster. The Republicans would never win again.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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FlossyDFlynt said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

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I would be surprised if Georgia is all that close. I dont think Texas will be this year, but it absolutely will be in 2024. As everyone with a functioning brain is leaving California, they have to go ruin somewhere else now.

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It would be a twist to see Texas in play because everyone leaving California and then California being in play because everyone went to Texas

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It would be a disaster. The Republicans would never win again.

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From an electoral college standpoint I would take the 55 votes from California over the 38 votes for m Texas in a heartbeat...but I agree that if Texas goes blue the Republicans will be irrelevant on a national level

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

---

After he got backed into a corner by Trump in the debate regarding the oil industry, my immediate thought was "There goes Texas for Biden."

If TX is even remotely still in play, that's a clear indication just how bad the orange man really is to people.

cowboypack02 said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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FlossyDFlynt said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

---

I would be surprised if Georgia is all that close. I dont think Texas will be this year, but it absolutely will be in 2024. As everyone with a functioning brain is leaving California, they have to go ruin somewhere else now.

---

It would be a twist to see Texas in play because everyone leaving California and then California being in play because everyone went to Texas

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It would be a disaster. The Republicans would never win again.

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From an electoral college standpoint I would take the 55 votes from California over the 38 votes for m Texas in a heartbeat...but I agree that if Texas goes blue the Republicans will be irrelevant on a national level

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I did not read your post correctly about them flipping. I don't think California is anywhere near in play this year. California used to be a a fairly reliable Republican state. Not anymore. If California keeps losing people then their electoral college numbers will start going down. Hopefully it's conservative leaning voters moving out of the cesspool.

Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

---

After he got backed into a corner by Trump in the debate regarding the oil industry, my immediate thought was "There goes Texas for Biden."

If TX is even remotely still in play, that's a clear indication just how bad the orange man really is to people.

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This is my thought as well. Ill be shocked if Texas is close this election. I wouldnt be surprised to see somewhat of a shift moving forward as people continue to bail on the west coast

Civilized said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Noticed some talk about texas and georgia being in play. That would be interesting. Also, noticed a couple of articles about the polls potentially not being right but that could help biden. Found that line of thinking somewhat odd. Do the national people know something the regulars don't? Are they setting up the people to not be shocked by results? Interesting times we are living in. Regardless nothing will shock me on election night. I got all I shock I could ever need 4 years ago.

---

After he got backed into a corner by Trump in the debate regarding the oil industry, my immediate thought was "There goes Texas for Biden."

If TX is even remotely still in play, that's a clear indication just how bad the orange man really is to people.

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I'm really not sure that comment hurt Biden with anyone not already voting against him. If anyone has seen any articles with actual data either way, I'd love to see it.

Funny, I asked last week who actually participated in polls, and for the first time in my adult life, someone just knocked on my door to ask if I would be willing to participate on a survey for the election. I politely declined, but I guess I can check that box off.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Don't know how you are so confident but I gotta hand it to you. You've been consistent this entire time. Either riding the wave or going down with the ship. Only time will tell.

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I've just looked at a lot of different factors that I want go into here and I've also thrown a little gut and faith to it. I am putting myself out there completely this time. I'll either look really stupid or everyone will be wanting to know my predictions for the next election. I am confident.