Civilized said:
GuerrillaPack said:
The people who run CNN, CBS/ABC/NBC, NY Times, and the rest of the communist Lamestream Establishment media are the REAL kooks. And they are self-promoting, and much more interested in gaining money and power than telling the truth. Do you really think that they have the best interest of the public in mind, and are doing nothing but striving to tell the truth? LMFAO. They have an agenda...a far Left agenda that is beyond obvious.
And their "polls" are PURE GARBAGE.
What percent chance do you give Trump to win?
A very good chance. A lot of historical metrics in his favor. The election polling that is coming out from the likes of Monmouth, PPP, or NBC/ WSJ, ABC, etc. are trash.
1. Primary voting tells you a lot. Northpath model uses his election predictor and odds specifically off of this. He is usually right. But also an unopposed incumbent has never even come close to getting 18 million + votes. This is also 94% of the GOP voters who voted. An incumbent has not lost re election when he has received at least 75% of his parties primary vote. Bush Sr. had 72% in 1992 for reference.
2. Enthusiasm is showing 20% more for Trump on one poll but I've seen others with more. Even more telling on that subject is what's happening on the ground. People are lining up sometimes for a couple of days to see Trump speak at a rally. There's 10s of thousands at each one. Enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts. Biden voters are just enthused to hate Trump but not about Biden.
3. 56% on the gallop poll said they are better off than they were 4 years ago. This is really incredible with a pandemic and more economic issues than we had in the other 3 years of Trump. Those numbers were in the mid 40's by the way for Clinton in 1996 and Bush in 2004... both won re election.
4. Finally... election polling this cycle is pushing a narrative. The samples are purposefully fixed and that's painfully obvious to anyone who has paid attention to polling in previous elections and also seen recent electorates.
People are assuming Trump is finished because of the media polls. No other metric but the polls. That's where the shock is going to come for a lot of people. These polls can't find the shy Trump vote, the person who's never voted before or hasn't voted in a decade, or the rural turnout. They often grab a lot of white liberals, suburban Karens, and Lincoln Project Republicans. They are using D+8-10 in a lot of the polls... ridiculous. And even amongst republicans some of the polls have Trump with 80% support or some low figure like that. It's clear he will break 90% of GOP votes easily.
