GuerrillaPack said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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jkpackfan said:

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I plan on voting for Trump (just to prevent Harris) but I don't think he has much of a chance in winning. Biden has double the lead that Hillary had...just don't see the polls being that wrong.

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Take heart Padawan. The polls are crap. There are only a few you can trust and they don't show up on RCP. There are other types of indicators like the gallup question of are you better off than 4 years ago, enthusiasm for candidate, ground game, and now... we have early voting modeling statistics coming out which aren't perfect but are better than polling. I will not be shocked on election night but a lot of people will be.

---

All real metrics show Trump is winning big. If you just looked at attendance at rallies, for example, Trump is CRUSHING Biden. Trump has about 15,000-20,000 people on average showing up at every rally. Meanwhile, Biden literally only has about 50-75 people show up for each of his.

Another real metric is the viewership of live streams of their rallies over the internet. Trump routinely has around 120,000-150,000 people watching the live streams of his rallies live. Meanwhile, Biden only has around 20,000 on his live streams.

It's been exposed how the Establishment polls are fake. They admittedly over sample Democrats by around 10% on average. But that is faulty methodology, because that does not reflect the electorate. A Gallup poll just showed that Republicans are 28% of the electorate, 27% Dems, and 42% Independent.

---

I will say here that i don't think this is a great metric. There is a huge disparity between how republicans and democrats have treated this whole coronavirus thing with Democrats thinking we're all gonna dine and republicans thinking that its time to get going again.

I think that you really see this in the rallies, where you have people who have the same beliefs as the candidates.


I also believe that for Biden to win there has to be excitement....and he ain't got it

cowboypack02 said:

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GuerrillaPack said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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jkpackfan said:

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I plan on voting for Trump (just to prevent Harris) but I don't think he has much of a chance in winning. Biden has double the lead that Hillary had...just don't see the polls being that wrong.

---

Take heart Padawan. The polls are crap. There are only a few you can trust and they don't show up on RCP. There are other types of indicators like the gallup question of are you better off than 4 years ago, enthusiasm for candidate, ground game, and now... we have early voting modeling statistics coming out which aren't perfect but are better than polling. I will not be shocked on election night but a lot of people will be.

---

All real metrics show Trump is winning big. If you just looked at attendance at rallies, for example, Trump is CRUSHING Biden. Trump has about 15,000-20,000 people on average showing up at every rally. Meanwhile, Biden literally only has about 50-75 people show up for each of his.

Another real metric is the viewership of live streams of their rallies over the internet. Trump routinely has around 120,000-150,000 people watching the live streams of his rallies live. Meanwhile, Biden only has around 20,000 on his live streams.

It's been exposed how the Establishment polls are fake. They admittedly over sample Democrats by around 10% on average. But that is faulty methodology, because that does not reflect the electorate. A Gallup poll just showed that Republicans are 28% of the electorate, 27% Dems, and 42% Independent.

---

I will say here that i don't think this is a great metric. There is a huge disparity between how republicans and democrats have treated this whole coronavirus thing with Democrats thinking we're all gonna dine and republicans thinking that its time to get going again.

I think that you really see this in the rallies, where you have people who have the same beliefs as the candidates.


I also believe that for Biden to win there has to be excitement....and he ain't got it

---

I agree that rallies aren't the best metric but they do measure enthusiasm on the ground. And it is hard to deny. In 2016 they tried to say it didn't matter and they were wrong. And Ronna McDaniel posts interesting info after these rallies.. .apparently they survey the people there. Here is some info from the Gastonia NC rally the other night. Look at how many did not vote before and are not republican.

ncsualum05 said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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GuerrillaPack said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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jkpackfan said:

---

I plan on voting for Trump (just to prevent Harris) but I don't think he has much of a chance in winning. Biden has double the lead that Hillary had...just don't see the polls being that wrong.

---

Take heart Padawan. The polls are crap. There are only a few you can trust and they don't show up on RCP. There are other types of indicators like the gallup question of are you better off than 4 years ago, enthusiasm for candidate, ground game, and now... we have early voting modeling statistics coming out which aren't perfect but are better than polling. I will not be shocked on election night but a lot of people will be.

---

All real metrics show Trump is winning big. If you just looked at attendance at rallies, for example, Trump is CRUSHING Biden. Trump has about 15,000-20,000 people on average showing up at every rally. Meanwhile, Biden literally only has about 50-75 people show up for each of his.

Another real metric is the viewership of live streams of their rallies over the internet. Trump routinely has around 120,000-150,000 people watching the live streams of his rallies live. Meanwhile, Biden only has around 20,000 on his live streams.

It's been exposed how the Establishment polls are fake. They admittedly over sample Democrats by around 10% on average. But that is faulty methodology, because that does not reflect the electorate. A Gallup poll just showed that Republicans are 28% of the electorate, 27% Dems, and 42% Independent.

---

I will say here that i don't think this is a great metric. There is a huge disparity between how republicans and democrats have treated this whole coronavirus thing with Democrats thinking we're all gonna dine and republicans thinking that its time to get going again.

I think that you really see this in the rallies, where you have people who have the same beliefs as the candidates.


I also believe that for Biden to win there has to be excitement....and he ain't got it

---

I agree that rallies aren't the best metric but they do measure enthusiasm on the ground. And it is hard to deny. In 2016 they tried to say it didn't matter and they were wrong. And Ronna McDaniel posts interesting info after these rallies.. .apparently they survey the people there. Here is some info from the Gastonia NC rally the other night. Look at how many did not vote before and are not republican.

---

They have been surveying all the rallies across the country and there is usually 20-25% Democrats at each one and may who did not vote in 2016. I believe these metrics to be accurate and if Trump does well with the Hispanic and Black vote which appear to be heading up, then it's over no matter how much the Dems try to cheat with the mail in ballots.

cowboypack02 said:

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GuerrillaPack said:

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All real metrics show Trump is winning big. If you just looked at attendance at rallies, for example, Trump is CRUSHING Biden. Trump has about 15,000-20,000 people on average showing up at every rally. Meanwhile, Biden literally only has about 50-75 people show up for each of his.

Another real metric is the viewership of live streams of their rallies over the internet. Trump routinely has around 120,000-150,000 people watching the live streams of his rallies live. Meanwhile, Biden only has around 20,000 on his live streams.

It's been exposed how the Establishment polls are fake. They admittedly over sample Democrats by around 10% on average. But that is faulty methodology, because that does not reflect the electorate. A Gallup poll just showed that Republicans are 28% of the electorate, 27% Dems, and 42% Independent.

---

I will say here that i don't think this is a great metric. There is a huge disparity between how republicans and democrats have treated this whole coronavirus thing with Democrats thinking we're all gonna dine and republicans thinking that its time to get going again.

I think that you really see this in the rallies, where you have people who have the same beliefs as the candidates.

I also believe that for Biden to win there has to be excitement....and he ain't got it

---

I do love a good meal; even better if it's bipartisan.

cowboypack02 said:

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Civilized said:

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1MANWOLFPAK said:

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Sure let's pretend like Democrat's aren't out in cities every night looting, vandalizing and destroying without repercussions. They commit felonies every night and don't appear to be afraid of consequences in the least. Every American adult citizen should have a drivers license or some form of government identification. I think we can all agree on that. Help me understand why is requiring those adults wanting to vote to bring ID such a pain point for you dems? Please Help me understand that.

Civilized said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Or going back and voting in somebody's name of a person who was registered, but has died? Lots of dead people still on voter rolls. Yep no chance that can't be used for fraud.

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Can you explain why this drumbeat started so significantly this cycle? Y'all act like voting like this is a new thing for Americans.

Many of these processes and procedures have been in place for multiple presidential elections (or longer), with both Pubs and Dems getting elected with no evidence of consequential voter or election fraud.

Being able to imagine ways to commit a felony doesn't mean that felony is likely to be committed on a meaningful scale.

---

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Don't listen to me, listen to the State Supreme Court. They gave you the answer to your question. Voter ID laws were put on the books with racially discriminatory intent (the Court's words, not mine).

Now, stop being mad and answer my question.

When has election fraud been an actual, and not an imaginary, problem in this country?

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I'm curious....can you explain how voter ID laws are racially discriminatory?

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I'm confident the Court did a fine job explaining their ruling, why don't you hit the googles and do some reading.

Civilized said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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Civilized said:

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1MANWOLFPAK said:

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Sure let's pretend like Democrat's aren't out in cities every night looting, vandalizing and destroying without repercussions. They commit felonies every night and don't appear to be afraid of consequences in the least. Every American adult citizen should have a drivers license or some form of government identification. I think we can all agree on that. Help me understand why is requiring those adults wanting to vote to bring ID such a pain point for you dems? Please Help me understand that.

Civilized said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Or going back and voting in somebody's name of a person who was registered, but has died? Lots of dead people still on voter rolls. Yep no chance that can't be used for fraud.

---

Can you explain why this drumbeat started so significantly this cycle? Y'all act like voting like this is a new thing for Americans.

Many of these processes and procedures have been in place for multiple presidential elections (or longer), with both Pubs and Dems getting elected with no evidence of consequential voter or election fraud.

Being able to imagine ways to commit a felony doesn't mean that felony is likely to be committed on a meaningful scale.

---

---

Don't listen to me, listen to the State Supreme Court. They gave you the answer to your question. Voter ID laws were put on the books with racially discriminatory intent (the Court's words, not mine).

Now, stop being mad and answer my question.

When has election fraud been an actual, and not an imaginary, problem in this country?

---

I'm curious....can you explain how voter ID laws are racially discriminatory?

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I'm confident the Court did a fine job explaining their ruling, why don't you hit the googles and do some reading.

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Depends on how the particular law is written.

One that simply requires a photo ID to vote is not discriminatory in the least.

Indiana has one that was ruled on by the SC and was upheld.

"Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, 553 U.S. 181 (2008), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that an Indiana law requiring voters to provide photographic identification did not violate the United States Constitution.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crawford_v._Marion_County_Election_Board#cite_note-1][1][/url]"

There's no imaginable legitimate argument that can be made against simply requiring voters to have a gov't issued ID. None. It's ridiculous that we don't have that nationwide.

Can I get Medicare with no ID? Can I get Social Security with no ID? Can I open a bank account with no ID? Cash a check? Etc?

Then why the hell can I vote?

If you knew me and knew where I lived, you could go vote for me. All the ask currently is your name, and address. If you know that, you get a ballot. That's BS.

Bas2020 said:

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New Ras Poll .

Trump by 4 in Florida 50-46.

They are coming out with a new N.C. senate poll at 1pm today fwiw

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not sure if this post makes me more excited than a recruiting 1pm update?!?! So conflicted right now, sports or politics!

WPNfamily said:

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Bas2020 said:

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New Ras Poll .

Trump by 4 in Florida 50-46.

They are coming out with a new N.C. senate poll at 1pm today fwiw

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not sure if this post makes me more excited than a recruiting 1pm update?!?! So conflicted right now, sports or politics!

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Oh I won't forget to respect voters decisions 100%

Pacfanweb said:

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Civilized said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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Civilized said:

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1MANWOLFPAK said:

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Sure let's pretend like Democrat's aren't out in cities every night looting, vandalizing and destroying without repercussions. They commit felonies every night and don't appear to be afraid of consequences in the least. Every American adult citizen should have a drivers license or some form of government identification. I think we can all agree on that. Help me understand why is requiring those adults wanting to vote to bring ID such a pain point for you dems? Please Help me understand that.

Civilized said:

---

DrummerboyWolf said:

---

Or going back and voting in somebody's name of a person who was registered, but has died? Lots of dead people still on voter rolls. Yep no chance that can't be used for fraud.

---

Can you explain why this drumbeat started so significantly this cycle? Y'all act like voting like this is a new thing for Americans.

Many of these processes and procedures have been in place for multiple presidential elections (or longer), with both Pubs and Dems getting elected with no evidence of consequential voter or election fraud.

Being able to imagine ways to commit a felony doesn't mean that felony is likely to be committed on a meaningful scale.

---

---

Don't listen to me, listen to the State Supreme Court. They gave you the answer to your question. Voter ID laws were put on the books with racially discriminatory intent (the Court's words, not mine).

Now, stop being mad and answer my question.

When has election fraud been an actual, and not an imaginary, problem in this country?

---

I'm curious....can you explain how voter ID laws are racially discriminatory?

---

I'm confident the Court did a fine job explaining their ruling, why don't you hit the googles and do some reading.

---

Depends on how the particular law is written.

One that simply requires a photo ID to vote is not discriminatory in the least.

Indiana has one that was ruled on by the SC and was upheld.

"Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, 553 U.S. 181 (2008), was a United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that an Indiana law requiring voters to provide photographic identification did not violate the United States Constitution.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crawford_v._Marion_County_Election_Board#cite_note-1][1][/url]"

There's no imaginable legitimate argument that can be made against simply requiring voters to have a gov't issued ID. None. It's ridiculous that we don't have that nationwide.

Can I get Medicare with no ID? Can I get Social Security with no ID? Can I open a bank account with no ID? Cash a check? Etc?

Then why the hell can I vote?

If you knew me and knew where I lived, you could go vote for me. All the ask currently is your name, and address. If you know that, you get a ballot. That's BS.

---

If...then...could...

Imaginary problems.

Many poor people don't have photo ID. That's an actual problem, not an imaginary problem.

ncsualum05 said:

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Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

we shall see in 11 days

Cheatin' Cal and Tillis in a dead heat.


I see this as Tillis +3 once the vote comes in. There are still alot of low information voters (house moms) that are just now learning of the multiple affairs on tv and radio ads.

Bas2020 said:

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Cheatin' Cal and Tillis in a dead heat.


I see this as Tillis +3 once the vote comes in. There are still alot of low information voters (house moms) that are just now learning of the multiple affairs on tv and radio ads.

---

Yep, this one is gonna go down to the wire.

Did y'all see where rapper 50 Cent came out a few days ago and said he was voting for Trump?

That might have a lot to do with this...

Here's 50 Cent's post on Instagram with him saying "WHAT THE F*CK! (VOTE ForTRUMP) IM OUT, **** NEW YORK The KNICKS never win anyway. I don't care Trump doesn't like black people 62% are you out of ya ****ing mind"

https://instagr.am/p/CGiai3nHu9f

Bas2020 said:

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Cal Cunningham is OUT of money also.

He has next to nothing left. Tillis has saved some for the home stretch.

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Here i thought he was hiding to avoid any questions....

Bas2020 said:

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why dont they ever include how many registered independents voted?

Keep in mind most of these polls are "rolling". They are anywhere from 3 days old to 3 weeks old at the tail end.


Ever since the Pence- Harris debate its been a pretty good rise of good Trump news and Negative news for Biden. That debate was 2 weeks ago.


The "polls" that come out next week closer to Oct 28/29/30 will be very very interesting to see.

ncsualum05 said:

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Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

Why do you think the race tightening is a poll conspiracy, and not just that, you know, the race is tightening?

As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

---

There was that one time you thought you were wrong and really wasn't

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

---

Is this some sort of reverse mojo black magic spell you're trying to cast over the election?

It's not going to take much of a shift for Trump to win again. It's going to be like coming up '6' on a six-sided die. Maybe more like coming up '5' or '6'. Are we really surprised when we hit a 6?

I think he's going to win FL so PA becomes colossally important.

Mormad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

---

There was that one time you thought you were wrong and really wasn't

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He was misinformed

Pacfanweb said:

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Mormad said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

---

There was that one time you thought you were wrong and really wasn't

---

He was misinformed

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Nope. You both were wrong!

Civilized said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

Why do you think the race tightening is a poll conspiracy, and not just that, you know, the race is tightening?

---

Sorry I didn't see this earlier. Because the polls were so far out of whack that it was obviously phony. The samples, methodology, the Nate Silver articles. It was like watching MSNBC and they were telling their audience what they wanted to hear. If the race is tightening than I guarantee you it's not tightening 10 damn points over the last couple weeks. I saw polls all summer long that had 39% D, 24% R and a bunch of independents. There were polls were Trump was getting like 75% R vote or 80% R vote. Or Trump would be down by 20 pts to I's. If you study elections and look at the last couple cycles you know those numbers are fake. Then you cross reference that with non election polls... like polls on approval rating, enthusiasm, and more recently that big one from Gallup which is reputable (are you better off than 4 yrs ago). Than you look at the ground game GOP had. Dems had none. The rallies that Trump is having. The R registrations in key battlegrounds are through the roof. A lot of key states Trump won close the R's have cut registration deficits to D's by hundreds of thousands in some cases.

There's so much to look at. But I would go back and look at exit polls from 2016. You can also reference 2018 but that was with no president and mid terms tend to be a little different. Even then you didn't get the kind of swings some of these media polls were talking about.

cowboypack02 said:

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I will say here that i don't think this is a great metric. There is a huge disparity between how republicans and democrats have treated this whole coronavirus thing with Democrats thinking we're all gonna dine and republicans thinking that its time to get going again.

I think that you really see this in the rallies, where you have people who have the same beliefs as the candidates.


I also believe that for Biden to win there has to be excitement....and he ain't got it

---

I had to chuckle about the above given that New York is finally starting to let some of the restaurants open as of today.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Civilized said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

As much as I don't like either candidate, I just don't see Trump winning this thing. I don't see how he can with as much stuff that is happening. Before covid, yea I could see it. Maybe I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong many times in my life.

---

Is this some sort of reverse mojo black magic spell you're trying to cast over the election?

It's not going to take much of a shift for Trump to win again. It's going to be like coming up '6' on a six-sided die. Maybe more like coming up '5' or '6'. Are we really surprised when we hit a 6?

I think he's going to win FL so PA becomes colossally important.

---

If I could do black magic mojo, we'd have 2 much better candidates then we have now!

---

Completely agree brother!

ncsualum05 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

Why do you think the race tightening is a poll conspiracy, and not just that, you know, the race is tightening?

---

Sorry I didn't see this earlier. Because the polls were so far out of whack that it was obviously phony. The samples, methodology, the Nate Silver articles. It was like watching MSNBC and they were telling their audience what they wanted to hear. If the race is tightening than I guarantee you it's not tightening 10 damn points over the last couple weeks. I saw polls all summer long that had 39% D, 24% R and a bunch of independents. There were polls were Trump was getting like 75% R vote or 80% R vote. Or Trump would be down by 20 pts to I's. If you study elections and look at the last couple cycles you know those numbers are fake. Then you cross reference that with non election polls... like polls on approval rating, enthusiasm, and more recently that big one from Gallup which is reputable (are you better off than 4 yrs ago). Than you look at the ground game GOP had. Dems had none. The rallies that Trump is having. The R registrations in key battlegrounds are through the roof. A lot of key states Trump won close the R's have cut registration deficits to D's by hundreds of thousands in some cases.

There's so much to look at. But I would go back and look at exit polls from 2016. You can also reference 2018 but that was with no president and mid terms tend to be a little different. Even then you didn't get the kind of swings some of these media polls were talking about.

---

Trump has an electoral college advantage though, so it doesn't need to close nearly 10 points nationally for it to essentially become a tossup.

California Dems skew the national numbers.

This race is going to come down to six or seven key states. The national numbers are relatively meaningless.