RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

If Trump gets 20% of the black vote, I will never post here again.

---

I've enjoyed your posts; will miss you.

Civilized said:

---

California Dems skew the national numbers.

This race is going to come down to six or seven key states. The national numbers are relatively meaningless.

---

Will someone 'splain this to Hillary?

Civilized said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

Why do you think the race tightening is a poll conspiracy, and not just that, you know, the race is tightening?

---

Sorry I didn't see this earlier. Because the polls were so far out of whack that it was obviously phony. The samples, methodology, the Nate Silver articles. It was like watching MSNBC and they were telling their audience what they wanted to hear. If the race is tightening than I guarantee you it's not tightening 10 damn points over the last couple weeks. I saw polls all summer long that had 39% D, 24% R and a bunch of independents. There were polls were Trump was getting like 75% R vote or 80% R vote. Or Trump would be down by 20 pts to I's. If you study elections and look at the last couple cycles you know those numbers are fake. Then you cross reference that with non election polls... like polls on approval rating, enthusiasm, and more recently that big one from Gallup which is reputable (are you better off than 4 yrs ago). Than you look at the ground game GOP had. Dems had none. The rallies that Trump is having. The R registrations in key battlegrounds are through the roof. A lot of key states Trump won close the R's have cut registration deficits to D's by hundreds of thousands in some cases.

There's so much to look at. But I would go back and look at exit polls from 2016. You can also reference 2018 but that was with no president and mid terms tend to be a little different. Even then you didn't get the kind of swings some of these media polls were talking about.

---

Trump has an electoral college advantage though, so it doesn't need to close nearly 10 points nationally for it to essentially become a tossup.

California Dems skew the national numbers.

This race is going to come down to six or seven key states. The national numbers are relatively meaningless.

---

Yep.
Looking at the national numbers (popular vote) is like looking at a 7 game playoff series where the team that lost 4-3 won 2 of their games in blowouts, while the rest were close. Doesn't matter if you ran up the score in those games....it matters only if you won, not by how much.

Exactly why the electoral college was invented.

And remember, Trump said last time when it was pointed out that he lost the popular vote: "I'd have won if it was popular vote because we would have campaigned differently"

He's probably right. He basically conceded California. So the Dems won overwhelmingly due to 2-3 counties, and Pubs didn't bother because they knew he wouldn't win anyway.
But if it was popular vote: He'd work Cali pretty hard. He doesn't need to win it, just lose by a good bit less, which is very plausible. Same with other Dem strongholds.
Whereas Hillary worked places like Arizona a good bit, trying to make some headway in traditional Republican states.

Trump just started speaking at his rally tonight in Pensacola, Florida. This YouTube channel live streams all of his rallies. There are currently over 105,000 people watching the stream:

Thanks for sharing that.

You bring a lot of great resources to this board.

Pacfanweb said:

---

Civilized said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Civilized said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Polls finally starting to adjust to what I've been saying for weeks now. This is how they spare their reputation and live to push propaganda for the next cycle. It's that final 2 week adjustment.

---

Why do you think the race tightening is a poll conspiracy, and not just that, you know, the race is tightening?

---

Sorry I didn't see this earlier. Because the polls were so far out of whack that it was obviously phony. The samples, methodology, the Nate Silver articles. It was like watching MSNBC and they were telling their audience what they wanted to hear. If the race is tightening than I guarantee you it's not tightening 10 damn points over the last couple weeks. I saw polls all summer long that had 39% D, 24% R and a bunch of independents. There were polls were Trump was getting like 75% R vote or 80% R vote. Or Trump would be down by 20 pts to I's. If you study elections and look at the last couple cycles you know those numbers are fake. Then you cross reference that with non election polls... like polls on approval rating, enthusiasm, and more recently that big one from Gallup which is reputable (are you better off than 4 yrs ago). Than you look at the ground game GOP had. Dems had none. The rallies that Trump is having. The R registrations in key battlegrounds are through the roof. A lot of key states Trump won close the R's have cut registration deficits to D's by hundreds of thousands in some cases.

There's so much to look at. But I would go back and look at exit polls from 2016. You can also reference 2018 but that was with no president and mid terms tend to be a little different. Even then you didn't get the kind of swings some of these media polls were talking about.

---

Trump has an electoral college advantage though, so it doesn't need to close nearly 10 points nationally for it to essentially become a tossup.

California Dems skew the national numbers.

This race is going to come down to six or seven key states. The national numbers are relatively meaningless.

---

Yep.
Looking at the national numbers (popular vote) is like looking at a 7 game playoff series where the team that lost 4-3 won 2 of their games in blowouts, while the rest were close. Doesn't matter if you ran up the score in those games....it matters only if you won, not by how much.

Exactly why the electoral college was invented.

And remember, Trump said last time when it was pointed out that he lost the popular vote: "I'd have won if it was popular vote because we would have campaigned differently"

He's probably right. He basically conceded California. So the Dems won overwhelmingly due to 2-3 counties, and Pubs didn't bother because they knew he wouldn't win anyway.
But if it was popular vote: He'd work Cali pretty hard. He doesn't need to win it, just lose by a good bit less, which is very plausible. Same with other Dem strongholds.
Whereas Hillary worked places like Arizona a good bit, trying to make some headway in traditional Republican states.

---

It's not that simple, because Democrats would also campaign differently. They don't invest much in places like California either and they could pump votes up there as well as Republicans. Both candidates would have to compete in all 50 states.

Far more Trump supporters than Biden supporters show up at Biden rally in Pennsylvania:

GuerrillaPack said:

---

Far more Trump supporters than Biden supporters show up at Biden rally in Pennsylvania:

---

The Trump people started honking and Joe didn't take it too kindly.

GuerrillaPack said:

---

Far more Trump supporters than Biden supporters show up at Biden rally in Pennsylvania:

---

Why would Trump supporters show up at a Biden rally? What does that accomplish?

With willingness this year, during COVID, to attend in-person rallies breaking along party lines what does this even show?

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

Far more Trump supporters than Biden supporters show up at Biden rally in Pennsylvania:

---

Why would Trump supporters show up at a Biden rally? ...

---

maybe they aren't . . . . . . . . . civilized?

bigeric said:

---

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

Far more Trump supporters than Biden supporters show up at Biden rally in Pennsylvania:

---

Why would Trump supporters show up at a Biden rally? ...

---

maybe they aren't . . . . . . . . . civilized?

---

Hahaha...touche!

Trump is questioned by reporters on how his campaign is doing. Trump responds that "a red wave is coming", citing early results and latest polls showing him doing well in Florida, NC, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan.

Using 538's polling averages and forecast model as of 10/25 late morning update:

Nationally, Trump 42.9%/Biden 52.0%
Trump wins 12 in 100/Biden wins 87 in 100

In NC, Trump 46.5%/Biden 49.4%
Trump wins 33 in 100/Biden wins 67 in 100

Biden +7.6% in MI
Biden +5.7% in PA
Biden +6.7% in WI
Biden +2.6% in AZ

Tillis 47.6%/Cunningham 50.0%
Tillis wins 36 in 100/Cunningham wins 64 in 100.

...

Biden's national lead is nominally decreased from midweek (now down to around 9 points) but Biden's chances of winning remain steady, again due to there being less time for Trump to make up ground and also Biden's relative stability in key battleground states.

Races in PA, AZ, MI, and WI have all seen nominal tightening, around half a point except for AZ where Trump's deficit decreased by more than a full point.

In NC, Trump and Biden again both showed upticks in voter share so Biden's chances of winning shifted minimally, from 68 in 100 to 67 in 100.

Just like last update, Tillis' projected vote share went up marginally; Cunningham's went down marginally so we saw a nominal increase in Tillis' chance to win re-election.

Trump and Tillis are both closing some, as expected. Can they close enough?

Two reasons we're not seeing the model forecast change much despite some closing is that there is less time for Trump to make up ground, and the 538 model also baked in anticipated closing.

Silver said two weeks ago (Biden's national lead was nearly 11 points at the time) that the model assumed the national margin would close to around 8 points by election day, with state races closing correspondingly.

Will be fascinating to deconstruct these polls, polling averages, and model results after the results are known.

A new Halloween political ad. It's pretty funny.

DrummerboyWolf said:

---

A new Halloween political ad. It's pretty funny.

---

LOLOL. That's well done.

Apparently, Sleepy Pedo Joe has announced he's putting a "lid" on his campaign, with no more in-person events until election day.

No one was coming to their rallies anyway, except for Trump supporters...so why not.

Good grief. Can't they get anyone to come out to hear them lie?

Biden must be feeling pretty confident if he's packing it in until Election Day.

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

---

In 2016 Trump had 306 electoral votes with 270 needed to clinch election. If Trump were to lose PA (20) & Wisconsin (10) he would have 276 electoral votes.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

---

Trump.

But there's a really big disparity in this MI number and those I've seen; most averages have Biden as +7.0 or better in Michigan.

If these results play out but Biden wins Michigan, Biden wins.

PA is much more iffy for Biden than MI right now. If Biden wins MI and loses PA, Trump also wins that scenario.

In order from most likely to least likely for Trump to take based on current polling averages:

1. NC
2. FL
3. AZ
4. PA
5. WI
6. NV
7. MN
8. MI

82TxPackFan said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

---

In 2016 Trump had 306 electoral votes with 270 needed to clinch election. If Trump were to lose PA (20) & Wisconsin (10) he would have 276 electoral votes.

---

But there is a near-100% likelihood that Trump doesn't carry all the states he carried in 2016.

Of those states Trump carried, Biden is currently favored (albeit in some cases by slim margins) in AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI, and PA. Biden ain't winning all those but winning some changes things dramatically compared to 2016. Also, Trump is unlikely to carry all the states he's a small favorite in too, which would also change things.

Trump is a very small favorite in IA, GA, OH, and TX.

Civilized said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

---

In 2016 Trump had 306 electoral votes with 270 needed to clinch election. If Trump were to lose PA (20) & Wisconsin (10) he would have 276 electoral votes.

---

But there is a near-100% likelihood that Trump doesn't carry all the states he carried in 2016.

Of those states Trump carried, Biden is currently favored (albeit in some cases by slim margins) in AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI, and PA. Biden ain't winning all those but winning some changes things dramatically compared to 2016. Also, Trump is unlikely to carry all the states he's a small favorite in too, which would also change things.

Trump is a very small favorite in IA, GA, OH, and TX.

---

The information is based on Trafalgar poll which correctly predicted the result in 2016. The 2020 prediction shows he loses PA & WI.

82TxPackFan said:

---

Civilized said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

Most recent Trafalgar October battleground polling numbers i have seen:

NC Trump +2.8
FL Trump +2.3
OH Trump +3.7
MI Trump +0.6
AZ Trump +2.4

PA Biden +2.3
WI Biden +1.3

---

So who wins if that happens to pan out?

---

In 2016 Trump had 306 electoral votes with 270 needed to clinch election. If Trump were to lose PA (20) & Wisconsin (10) he would have 276 electoral votes.

---

But there is a near-100% likelihood that Trump doesn't carry all the states he carried in 2016.

Of those states Trump carried, Biden is currently favored (albeit in some cases by slim margins) in AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI, and PA. Biden ain't winning all those but winning some changes things dramatically compared to 2016. Also, Trump is unlikely to carry all the states he's a small favorite in too, which would also change things.

Trump is a very small favorite in IA, GA, OH, and TX.

---

The information is based on Trafalgar poll which correctly predicted the result in 2016. The 2020 prediction shows he loses PA & WI.

---

Will be so interesting to see which models and polls are most accurate.

Huge difference between polls in MI especially. Trafalgar is way, way more bullish on Trump in MI than any other poll (and of course generally more bullish on him everywhere than almost any other poll).

https://instagr.am/p/CGoCHwVDawR

Boy there's gonna be some confused people in 8 days. Rasmussen hasn't had the greatest of track records recently so I sort of ignore them.

Nate Silver tweeting about the Trafalgar polls today. It's going to be really interesting to see how results compare after all of this.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

---

Boy there's gonna be some confused people in 8 days. Rasmussen hasn't had the greatest of track records recently so I sort of ignore them.

---

Hahaha, yeah there are!

People's love for Rasmussen and Trafalgar seem to be just from saying "but they were correct in 2016!"

They're right-leaning, and polling error correlates, so polling error from 2016 (driven by multiple factors but resulting in polls erring to the left in that election) makes people think that Rasmussen and Trafalgar just more accurate.

In reality they're going to look good in elections that swing to the right compared to polling averages; in elections where polls are close or that swing to the left Rasmussen and Trafalgar are going to be much too far right.

Silver has the most to lose IMO. He's passed on as this beacon of objectivity in his polling results. Certainly will be interesting.

packgrad said:

---

Silver has the most to lose IMO. He's passed on as this beacon of objectivity in his polling results. Certainly will be interesting.

---

Polling is what it is; he's got nothing to do with polling. He just assembles and reports polling averages from polls, both low-quality and high-quality. (and including polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar).

You're probably talking about his forecast model. It uses an algorithm to try to predict winners based on polling average results.