Trump Biden Polls
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Last: 3 yr ago by Civilized
^You can add that probably 5% of the ECU fans are also UNC basketball fans, so really just UNC fans. Same with the other "UNC*" fans.
You can't assume that all will vote on either side, but if you are a registered Republican you can pretty much assume that 85-90% will vote with their party. Still too early to call, but Trump is looking good in Florida.RunsWithWolves26 said:Bas2020 said:
This means Trump has 6 hours of voting to add to his lead.
You can already "call" Florida for Trump now.
So you're assuming all the R's voted Trump correct?
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
RunsWithWolves26 said:Bas2020 said:
This means Trump has 6 hours of voting to add to his lead.
You can already "call" Florida for Trump now.
So you're assuming all the R's voted Trump correct?
I think there are as many D's voting R as there would be R's voting D... so its a wash.
Certainly your not going to see 250,000 R's vote D in one state.
Again, if your "hope" is for DT to suddenly lose 10% or R support your delusional.
With the supreme court picks, economy projections and Biden/Harris corruption and Socialism plans your not going to see many R's jump ship. Also most Rs are still pissed off about Brett Kavanaugh and the phony impeachment.
IF thats the Ds hope.... then they got nothing.
Those "other polls" have been wrong the whole time. They have tried to shape public opinion and not reflect public opinion.RunsWithWolves26 said:TheStorm said:I don't know why anybody expected anything different.Bas2020 said:
If and I say IF this actually happens and it's called early, those other polls are going to be very suspect considering most had biden +2-4 in florida.
Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!
I sure hope you're right.DrummerboyWolf said:Those "other polls" have been wrong the whole time. They have tried to shape public opinion and not reflect public opinion.RunsWithWolves26 said:TheStorm said:I don't know why anybody expected anything different.Bas2020 said:
If and I say IF this actually happens and it's called early, those other polls are going to be very suspect considering most had biden +2-4 in florida.
DrummerboyWolf said:You can't assume that all will vote on either side, but if you are a registered Republican you can pretty much assume that 85-90% will vote with their party. Still too early to call, but Trump is looking good in Florida.RunsWithWolves26 said:Bas2020 said:
This means Trump has 6 hours of voting to add to his lead.
You can already "call" Florida for Trump now.
So you're assuming all the R's voted Trump correct?
Voter turnout this election is expected to be at least 20% higher than in 2016.
In Florida, that translates to over 1MM more voters, roughly half of which would be pubs. So ~520,000 more pubs AND the same number of additional dems would be voting in this election in Florida than in 2016.
You can't tell **** from these early numbers based on turnout.
Civilized said:DrummerboyWolf said:You can't assume that all will vote on either side, but if you are a registered Republican you can pretty much assume that 85-90% will vote with their party. Still too early to call, but Trump is looking good in Florida.RunsWithWolves26 said:Bas2020 said:
This means Trump has 6 hours of voting to add to his lead.
You can already "call" Florida for Trump now.
So you're assuming all the R's voted Trump correct?
Voter turnout this election is expected to be at least 20% higher than in 2016.
In Florida, that translates to over 1MM more voters, roughly half of which would be pubs. So ~520,000 more pubs AND the same number of additional dems would be voting in this election in Florida than in 2016.
You can't tell **** from these early numbers based on turnout.
But you may be able to tell **** if Trump carries florida +3-4 when the polls and the ones doing it knew the turnout would be high and still had biden +2-4 couldn't you?
Here it comes.
RunsWithWolves26 said:Civilized said:DrummerboyWolf said:You can't assume that all will vote on either side, but if you are a registered Republican you can pretty much assume that 85-90% will vote with their party. Still too early to call, but Trump is looking good in Florida.RunsWithWolves26 said:Bas2020 said:
This means Trump has 6 hours of voting to add to his lead.
You can already "call" Florida for Trump now.
So you're assuming all the R's voted Trump correct?
Voter turnout this election is expected to be at least 20% higher than in 2016.
In Florida, that translates to over 1MM more voters, roughly half of which would be pubs. So ~520,000 more pubs AND the same number of additional dems would be voting in this election in Florida than in 2016.
You can't tell **** from these early numbers based on turnout.
But you may be able to tell **** if Trump carries florida +3-4 when the polls and the ones doing it knew the turnout would be high and still had biden +2-4 couldn't you?
I'm saying turnout is expected to be much higher than 2016 on both sides so early turnout numbers compared to 2016 for one side, alone, are not assured to be predictive or decisive.
If it turns out after all the votes are counted that 30% more pubs vote in this election in FL than in 2016, and only 20% or 25% more dems vote than in 2016, THAT final turnout difference will mean something for sure.
How does that reporter have access to such specific vote counts?
My completely uneducated guess is they are going off the party registration of the voters, not the actual tallied votes. No idea how it works in FL, but when I worked the polls as a volunteer in high school, we didn't tally votes until the end of the night (about an hour after closing if memory serves).Andrew4343 said:
How does that reporter have access to such specific vote counts?
They are open to the public. Florida and I believe Arizona, Nevada etc updates basically in "real time". North Carolina does not. I dont think PA does either, and PA is having all sorts of issues. That State sounds supper corrupt... entire Counties are "down".Andrew4343 said:
How does that reporter have access to such specific vote counts?
Pacfanweb said:Bas2020 said:
He's conveniently leaving out that some counties have not reported anything yet. So maybe some counties have and these are the right numbers, but there's a lot left to go
Your missing that the "panhandle" is Trump country. They are always an hour behind and thats why you always see a huge R surge later in the day.
The R lead is just going to grow and grow....
Trump started the day in a 80K hole in Nevada. He seems to be gaining by about 5-6K votes per hour.
That will put him very very close at the end of the day but still likely 10-15K votes short and Biden would likely win Nevada.
IF its that close you'll probably see a recount or lawyers involved. Clark County is notorious for having some shady stuff going on... its Vegas after all.
Regardless.. its becoming clear that Biden is performing worse than Hillary thus far.
That will put him very very close at the end of the day but still likely 10-15K votes short and Biden would likely win Nevada.
IF its that close you'll probably see a recount or lawyers involved. Clark County is notorious for having some shady stuff going on... its Vegas after all.
Regardless.. its becoming clear that Biden is performing worse than Hillary thus far.
Bas2020 said:
Trump started the day in a 80K hole in Nevada. He seems to be gaining by about 5-6K votes per hour.
That will put him very very close at the end of the day but still likely 10-15K votes short and Biden would likely win Nevada.
IF its that close you'll probably see a recount or lawyers involved. Clark County is notorious for having some shady stuff going on... its Vegas after all.
Regardless.. its becoming clear that Biden is performing worse than Hillary thus far.
The polls would have that right then.
Are you factoring in the fact that many registered Democrats will be voting for Trump? Or how many Independents may break for Trump?Bas2020 said:
Trump started the day in a 80K hole in Nevada. He seems to be gaining by about 5-6K votes per hour.
That will put him very very close at the end of the day but still likely 10-15K votes short and Biden would likely win Nevada.
IF its that close you'll probably see a recount or lawyers involved. Clark County is notorious for having some shady stuff going on... its Vegas after all.
Regardless.. its becoming clear that Biden is performing worse than Hillary thus far.
At many of Trump's rallies nationwide, they polled the attendees, and sometimes around 20% of the people at the rally were registered Democrats who are supporting Trump.
And look at Pennsylvania in 2016, as an example. Registered Democrats far outnumbered registered Republicans in PA, and yet Trump won PA in 2016. How? Because a HUGE number of Democrats supported Trump.
GuerrillaPack said:Are you factoring in the fact that many registered Democrats will be voting for Trump? Or how many Independents may break for Trump?Bas2020 said:
Trump started the day in a 80K hole in Nevada. He seems to be gaining by about 5-6K votes per hour.
That will put him very very close at the end of the day but still likely 10-15K votes short and Biden would likely win Nevada.
IF its that close you'll probably see a recount or lawyers involved. Clark County is notorious for having some shady stuff going on... its Vegas after all.
Regardless.. its becoming clear that Biden is performing worse than Hillary thus far.
At many of Trump's rallies nationwide, they polled the attendees, and sometimes around 20% of the people at the rally were registered Democrats who are supporting Trump.
And look at Pennsylvania in 2016, as an example. Registered Democrats far outnumbered registered Republicans in PA, and yet Trump won PA in 2016. How? Because a HUGE number of Democrats supported Trump.
True. Clark Co is just a different animal though. Its not like NC. Clark Co is 65% of the entire state. One County controls the whole State. No state is quite like Nevada, but yeah its going to be very very close.
The best thing to take away from it is Biden is doing worse than Hilary. Just like in Florida.
Bas2020 said:Pacfanweb said:Bas2020 said:
He's conveniently leaving out that some counties have not reported anything yet. So maybe some counties have and these are the right numbers, but there's a lot left to go
Your missing that the "panhandle" is Trump country. They are always an hour behind and thats why you always see a huge R surge later in the day.
The R lead is just going to grow and grow....
What concerns me is, how do we know the Republicans have the lead? All these numbers are saying is that a lot of Republicans are voting. They aren't saying anything about how many Democrats are voting. You would assume most Republicans vote R and most Democrats vote D. But how many of each are voting?
Yeah I think people are confusing voter counts (by party registration) and vote counts here.Pacfanweb said:Bas2020 said:Pacfanweb said:
He's conveniently leaving out that some counties have not reported anything yet. So maybe some counties have and these are the right numbers, but there's a lot left to go
Your missing that the "panhandle" is Trump country. They are always an hour behind and thats why you always see a huge R surge later in the day.
The R lead is just going to grow and grow....
What concerns me is, how do we know the Republicans have the lead? All these numbers are saying is that a lot of Republicans are voting. They aren't saying anything about how many Democrats are voting. You would assume most Republicans vote R and most Democrats vote D. But how many of each are voting?
Like you say, it's way more important to know who people vote for than the voting tally by party registration.
Turnout numbers tell us nothing about how many Republicans are voting for Biden, Dems for Trump, or Independents for either.
Civilized said:Yeah I think people are confusing voter counts (by party registration) and vote counts here.Pacfanweb said:Bas2020 said:Pacfanweb said:
He's conveniently leaving out that some counties have not reported anything yet. So maybe some counties have and these are the right numbers, but there's a lot left to go
Your missing that the "panhandle" is Trump country. They are always an hour behind and thats why you always see a huge R surge later in the day.
The R lead is just going to grow and grow....
What concerns me is, how do we know the Republicans have the lead? All these numbers are saying is that a lot of Republicans are voting. They aren't saying anything about how many Democrats are voting. You would assume most Republicans vote R and most Democrats vote D. But how many of each are voting?
Like you say, it's way more important to know who people vote for than the voting tally by party registration.
Turnout numbers tell us nothing about how many Republicans are voting for Biden, Dems for Trump, or Independents for either.
On the same hand, if R's are voting in higher numbers this time then in 2016 and we know 95% vote for Trump, would that not mean that trump's numbers will be higher then in 2016 regardless of what the other 5% do?
RunsWithWolves26 said:Civilized said:Yeah I think people are confusing voter counts (by party registration) and vote counts here.Pacfanweb said:Bas2020 said:Pacfanweb said:
He's conveniently leaving out that some counties have not reported anything yet. So maybe some counties have and these are the right numbers, but there's a lot left to go
Your missing that the "panhandle" is Trump country. They are always an hour behind and thats why you always see a huge R surge later in the day.
The R lead is just going to grow and grow....
What concerns me is, how do we know the Republicans have the lead? All these numbers are saying is that a lot of Republicans are voting. They aren't saying anything about how many Democrats are voting. You would assume most Republicans vote R and most Democrats vote D. But how many of each are voting?
Like you say, it's way more important to know who people vote for than the voting tally by party registration.
Turnout numbers tell us nothing about how many Republicans are voting for Biden, Dems for Trump, or Independents for either.
On the same hand, if R's are voting in higher numbers this time then in 2016 and we know 95% vote for Trump, would that not mean that trump's numbers will be higher then in 2016 regardless of what the other 5% do?
Republicans will certainly be voting in greater numbers than 2016.
But, Democrats will be too. And independents.
All I'm saying is voter turnout is a loose proxy for how the vote will fall but it's pretty imprecise and in states like Florida that Trump only won by 1% in 2016, imprecision will matter.
North Carolina will be very very very close.
I think Biden has a better shot in NC than most think because of all the Yankees moving to Raleigh an Charlotte.
These people escape the North because of taxes and bad policy and then they vote for the same bad policy here. Makes total sense lol.
I think Biden has a better shot in NC than most think because of all the Yankees moving to Raleigh an Charlotte.
These people escape the North because of taxes and bad policy and then they vote for the same bad policy here. Makes total sense lol.
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