ncsualum05 said:

---

Repost 1 week out!

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0zXvj"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/0zXvj">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

---

Saw a stat the other day where Baker Mayfield had a 1-in-19,000+ chance of completing those 22 straight passes on Sunday against the Bengals. Astronomically improbable. Your map here reminds me of that.

GuerrillaPack said:

---

---

So dumb. How does saying this help him?

All this does is mobilize Dems.

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

---

So dumb. How does saying this help him?

All this does is mobilize Dems.

---

Nah....the Dems think the Donald is LYING, as always. The Dems believe the lying corrupt communist Lamestream Establishment media, with their fake polls saying that Biden is leading by "14 gazillion" points nationally, or whatever.

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

---

So dumb. How does saying this help him?

All this does is mobilize Dems.

---

Eh - doesn't help or hurt his chances. The Dems were already as mobilized as they are going to get.

You know, I've been thinking...one good thing that may come out of this whole "covid-19" hoax scamdemic is that it probably motivated millions of people to turn against the communist Democrats, who are cheerleading these totalitarian lockdowns. The Left thinks that by perpetuating this "covid" hoax and the lockdowns and hurting the economy, that they are hurting Trump and the Republicans. I think it's going to backfire bigtime.

Trump just started speaking at his rally tonight in Omaha, Nebraska. He announced a crowd of 29,000 people there in person. Over 100,000 people are currently watching just on this live stream -- on the "Right Side Broadcasting Network" YouTube channel, which live streams all of his rallies.

Using 538's polling averages and forecast model as of 10/28 late morning update:

Nationally, Trump 43.1%/Biden 51.7%
Trump wins 12 in 100/Biden wins 88 in 100

In NC, Trump 48.8%/Biden 50.5%
Trump wins 37 in 100/Biden wins 63 in 100

Biden +8.0% in MI
Biden +5.2% in PA
Biden +8.9% in WI
Biden +2.8% in AZ

Tillis 47.7%/Cunningham 50.0%
Tillis wins 37 in 100/Cunningham wins 63 in 100.

...

The theme over the last 1.5 weeks has been that the race remains relatively steady.

Trump has closed nationally slightly, and also in AZ and PA. Biden's lead in WI and MI has grown, significantly so in WI (COVID effect?) Overall this translates to Trump's chances of winning being approximately the same as they were a week and a half ago.

In NC, Trump has gained a little ground although Biden is still a slight favorite to win.

Just like last update, Tillis' projected vote share went up marginally; Cunningham's went down marginally so we saw a nominal increase in Tillis' chance to win re-election. Crazy that the sexting scandal hasn't had more of an effect.

Iowa, Georgia, and Florida appear to be true coin flips right now; can Trump come up heads on all three again?

Big thing this time around is that Trump won three midwestern states in 2016 by the narrowest of margins - under 1% of the popular votes in those states (edit: ...and I think I read by a margin of only around 70k votes total in all three states combined). He probably needs either PA or all of WI, MI, IA, and OH to win. Is he more, or less likely to carry those same states again in 2020?

PackDaddy said:

---

I hope Trump wins just to prove 538 polls wrong. I believe Nate Silver is a scam more so than the rest.

---

Nate Silver is a hack. He's a mouthpiece of the communist Leftist Establishment. Totally wrong in 2016, pushing the fake polls put out by the Establishment, telling us that Hillary had a "99% chance of winning".

He's put out there as if he is the "wizard" or "final authority" on all political polling. Nothing could be further from the truth.

But, yeah, we're supposed to just trust that this goofball looking turd is the "god" of polling.

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

---

So dumb. How does saying this help him?

All this does is mobilize Dems.

---

All we have heard since 2016 is "orange man bad". That's been hammered into our heads daily for almost four years now. If the Dems aren't motivated already , this isn't going to do anything.

ncsualum05 said:

---

PackDaddy said:

---

I hope Trump wins just to prove 538 polls wrong. I believe Nate Silver is a scam more so than the rest.

---

He's a partisan hack and a scam artist. His website is bull***** And he needs to shut up on twitter too. He's saying dangerous things that are encouraging the inevitable cries of cheating from the left after they lose. Hope he is dumbfounded on election night and never taken seriously again. Of course he was completely wrong in 2016 too and that didn't seem to slow down his propaganda.

---

I don't understand why people get angry when polls show something other than what they want them to show. Be angry at the polls, not the people that report or average them.

It's not like Silver runs the polls. He average the polls, reports on trends, and creates a model to forecast elections based on poll data.

If he's a scam artist hack, why did his model do so well in 2008 and 2012 (and did fine in 2016, although it's obvious your head's not in a place to be objective about that).

What is he saying that's dangerous?

Pacfanweb said:

---

Civilized said:

---

GuerrillaPack said:

---

---

So dumb. How does saying this help him?

All this does is mobilize Dems.

---

All we have heard since 2016 is "orange man bad". That's been hammered into our heads daily for almost four years now. If the Dems aren't motivated already , this isn't going to do anything.

---

When a reporter would ask Philip Rivers about another team talking trash and is that going to get you more motivated and play harder. Philip would always say if it takes that to get you motivated then you have been short changing the other games. Is that comment going to make you try harder?

The Dems are motivated out of hatred for Trump, but Trump's supporters are die hard and you can tell that by the numbers at the rallies. They will show up or have already shown up and voted. Now will the antifa thugs and dissidents show up to vote with the same numbers? I doubt that seriously.

ncsualum05 said:

---

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Alright, here is my prediction Biden 306 - Trump 232

NC and Florida are the biggest tossups IMO.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly

Quote:

---

Don't believe the polls -- Trump is winning

10/27/20

We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election and win big.

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it's close, those polls suffer from at least three problems.

[...]

---

Alright this guys weighs in on the election. He has his facts down and I hope he is right!!!

ncsualum05 said:

---

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

I hope you're celebrating like it's 1999 in a week or so!

82TxPackFan said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

I hope you're celebrating like it's 1999 in a week or so!

---

Obviously accurately gauging Trump support is critical to accurate polling.

Not much evidence of shy Trump voters though.

https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

2,400 voters polled, half via live phone interviews and half online.

"Shy Trump" effect only gave Trump a +1% bump.

I think the bigger issue in 2016 was undersampling of non-college-educated white men. Did pollsters correct for that polling bias in 2020? We'll see in a few days.

IseWolf22 said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Alright, here is my prediction Biden 306 - Trump 232

NC and Florida are the biggest tossups IMO.

---

Things just got interesting! I will crown one of you "Winner of picking the worst case candidate" when this is all over with!!

82TxPackFan said:

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

---

Biden's chances of victory depends on the Establishment media's fake polls where they oversample Democrats by at least 10 points on average.

Civilized said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

I hope you're celebrating like it's 1999 in a week or so!

---

Obviously accurately gauging Trump support is critical to accurate polling.

Not much evidence of shy Trump voters though.

https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

2,400 voters polled, half via live phone interviews and half online.

"Shy Trump" effect only gave Trump a +1% bump.

I think the bigger issue in 2016 was undersampling of non-college-educated white men. Did pollsters correct for that polling bias in 2020? We'll see in a few days.

---

LOL at the "poll" to identify the amount of silent Trump voters. Will likely be more than a few days before we know the results given the legal challenges that will be brought forward.

82TxPackFan said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

<div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/N2E0d">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

I hope you're celebrating like it's 1999 in a week or so!

---

I go off more than Trafalgar but they are certainly a good poll and are getting more attention lately.

77% of conservatives are afraid to share their political views.....they aren't going to be honest when asked is they support Trump.

https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#liberals-are-divided-political-expression

cowboypack02 said:

---

77% of conservatives are afraid to share their political views.....they aren't going to be honest when asked is they support Trump.

https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#liberals-are-divided-political-expression

---

Are they afraid to submit their views in an anonymous online survey though? Does that make sense?

82TxPackFan said:

---

Civilized said:

---

82TxPackFan said:

---

ncsualum05 said:

---

Will be reposting daily until election. I'm owning it for better or worse.

---

Whether you are celebrating, or eating crow, likely depends on Trafalgar's estimates of "shy" Trump voters. It's obvious that most polls don't include this adjustment in their numbers,

I hope you're celebrating like it's 1999 in a week or so!

---

Obviously accurately gauging Trump support is critical to accurate polling.

Not much evidence of shy Trump voters though.

https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

2,400 voters polled, half via live phone interviews and half online.

"Shy Trump" effect only gave Trump a +1% bump.

I think the bigger issue in 2016 was undersampling of non-college-educated white men. Did pollsters correct for that polling bias in 2020? We'll see in a few days.

---

LOL at the "poll" to identify the amount of silent Trump voters. Will likely be more than a few days before we know the results given the legal challenges that will be brought forward.

---

What's wrong with that poll?

Civilized said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

77% of conservatives are afraid to share their political views.....they aren't going to be honest when asked is they support Trump.

https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#liberals-are-divided-political-expression

---

Are they afraid to submit their views in an anonymous online survey though? Does that make sense?

---

Yes, it does. If people are afraid to share their views, a polling company promising anonymity isn't going to change that.

AlleyPack said:

---

I'm an independent, but I'll tell you right now that I have a couple of close friends who are going to vote for Trump -- but in no way are they broadcasting that fact. (lots of people do make it well known, sure, but I'm just saying that I think lots DO NOT)

And the reason why each of them said they're choosing to stay quiet?
They don't want to get blasted/attacked/demonized by people they know who are radical leftists.

(another caveat -- not all liberals are "radical leftists"... but there are definitely a lot who will quickly call someone a racists/sexist/whatever-ist if they find out that person is voting for Trump)

One guy -- his wife's whole extended family is Liberal. He said it's just not worth the hassle and headache, and when one of them cornered him he told them he's voting for Jorgensen. (which even that has caused him some of the "you might as well vote for Trump!" grief, LOL)

I think a lot of voters simply don't want to deal with the insanity of that radical faction, and thus they keep quiet.
To co-workers, to random pollsters, to whomever.
Again -- this is based on several very direct anecdotes I've personally observed.

---

"I'm voting for Jorgensen" is the ultimate comeback. Nobody knows *** to do with that information.

Very disarming.

packgrad said:

---

Civilized said:

---

cowboypack02 said:

---

77% of conservatives are afraid to share their political views.....they aren't going to be honest when asked is they support Trump.

https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#liberals-are-divided-political-expression

---

Are they afraid to submit their views in an anonymous online survey though? Does that make sense?

---

Yes, it does. If people are afraid to share their views, a polling company promising anonymity isn't going to change that.

---

I think if you're that afraid to share your views, you're not engaging with a random polling company anyway.

You're hanging up or never picking up, not engaging with them and then lying to them about who you'll vote for.

WPNfamily said:

---

My sister is Trump all the way. She is my business partner and knows why Trumps policies are right for our business. Her husband is a die hard liberal. She told him she voted for Biden just to keep home front happy. She is a great example of a closet Trump voter. There are a lot more closet Trump voters out there because of the lefts intolerance. The term silent majority didn't come to be for no reason.

---

She lied to her husband about who she voted for?