More sophisticated polls will give you different numbers based on turnout. There were polls out there in the battleground states Clinton lost to show that at middle to low turnout she could be in trouble, but people focused on national polls. National polls always skew Democratic because there are more of them, but they are concentrated in urban areas which are penalized by the Electoral College system.
In these current battle ground polls Trump is significantly behind in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pa, and Minnesota. He has to get to at least 47% in those states to have a chance. If a State has a gubernatorial or Senate race check those numbers. Cooper and Cunningham are running 3-6 ahead of Forest and Tillis when the Presidential poll shows it even or Biden up 2-3.
If turnout is above 2016, Trump and a lot of Republicans likely get beat.
If turnout is more akin to 2008 or sets a records, Trump and a lot of Republicans get killed.
For this time around each 1% of turnout will be near 1,4 million votes.
2008 - @57%
2012 - @55%
2016 - @56%
From the standpoint of actually winning the presidency, fewer or extra votes only matter in states that can flip. An extra 500,000 votes in NY or California for the Democrat means nothing. And extra 50,000 votes in Bama, Mississippi or Tennessee mean nothing for Republicans.
Marginal votes in NC, Florida, Pa, Michigan, Whisky, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas really "matter". Biden wins with any 3 of these States. Trump needs 6 of the 9 if my math is correct.
My guess is Biden takes Arizona, Pa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. NC, Florida, and Ohio can;t be predicted, I think Trump keeps Georgia and Texas.
I like the athletic type