A nation state attempting to operate under the strict construction of the Constitution will fail. I think perhaps we have reached the point in the relationship where we should split up into three to five smaller nation states and operate more like the European Union, sharing just a military, a common currency, Corps of Engineers, and open boarders.
The new Confederacy could consist of Northern Florida, Bama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Western NC, SW Va, West Va., Kentucky and Tennessee.
They could attempt to follow strict construction, They could devolve State's rights so that they disenfranchise their poorer people. They could not provide Medicare, etc., etc. The key would be that visitors to their sub nation form the rest of the former US would retain their home sub nation rights on a visit. It would be a low tax, low service world.
The class caste system will become severe as it was in the past. I suspect that a lot of black folks, especially in Atlanta would migrate away.
California, Washington State, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado could run a very European economic and social system. They would offer a high tax, high service world.
New England, Middle Atlantic to include Eastern Va and Eastern NC, plus South Florida, PR, and VI could probably operate a moderate tax, high service environment, closer maybe to Germany or Switzerland and they would get a lot in migration from Atlanta.
In Texas and Western Oklahoma, every child can be given a gun at birth.
The Midwest and Upper Plains could run like most any developed nation in Stage 5 Demographic Transition.
As long as you don't turn over the military to Nashville, or Sacramento, or Dallas, it could work.
I like the athletic type