Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

---

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings

---

That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

---

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.

Civilized said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

---

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings

---

That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

---

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.

---

A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.

Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

---

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings

---

That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

---

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.

---

A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.

---

I've been a big poll aggregator guy since 2012 or prior.

Our convo a year or so ago had to have some nuance. Were we discussing that polls that far out had little value because they were sure to change so much over the next year maybe?

Polls are just an interesting data point. It's information. They're like forecasting the weather. It's a lot more info than you'd have without them but they're obviously not completely predictive. Observing their trends is interesting though.

The thing I feel strongest about is that I don't think there is any widespread manipulation of polls for political purposes. Pollster's reputational interests are better served being seen as accurate and sound than as being partisan.

Civilized said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Oldsouljer said:

---

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

---

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings

---

That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

---

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.

---

A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.

---

I've been a big poll aggregator guy since 2012 or prior.

Our convo a year or so ago had to have some nuance. Were we discussing that polls that far out had little value because they were sure to change so much over the next year maybe?

Polls are just an interesting data point. It's information. They're like forecasting the weather. It's a lot more info than you'd have without them but they're obviously not completely predictive. Observing their trends is interesting though.

The thing I feel strongest about is that I don't think there is any widespread manipulation of polls for political purposes. Pollster's reputational interests are better served being seen as accurate and sound than as being partisan.

---

Not if they're being well compensated to be partisan. And to that, the public would never be the wiser.

Civilized said:

---

Bas2020 said:

---

Jack Brewer, who has worked in Haiti for 15 years confirms eating wild animals and cannibalism

🚨 “Not just are they eating animals, but they're eating humans. There's cannibalism in Haiti going on all the time. I have literally videos on my phone of people eating and… pic.twitter.com/okn5JWQm4X

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 18, 2024

"Not just are they eating animals, but they're eating humans. There's cannibalism in Haiti going on all the time. I have literally videos on my phone of people eating and sacrificing other people"

"The culture in Haiti, that people eat animals and sacrifice animals. You have a big voodoo culture in Haiti that's just rampant."

Democrats are importing these people by the tens of thousands for their votes

---

LOLOLOL

Cool story bro

---

#Sieve, I agree with your contention that Trump is causing DIVISION. #Sieve, you've been shown plenty of evidence, you have not excuse you didn't know.

This right here! I’ve heard this before if you are a Christian, then you cannot vote Democrat. They are the party of evil. Although I don’t think Trump is causing division, I think it’s the Democrats, but I digress. Listen to this guys speech https://t.co/ODHiUuJ1PK

— Shellie- #FaithisAction! (@Shellieh98) September 20, 2024