TRUMP 2024

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Civilized
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Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Bas2020 said:

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings


That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.
Oldsouljer
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Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Bas2020 said:

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings


That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.
A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.
Civilized
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Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Bas2020 said:

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings


That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.
A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.

I've been a big poll aggregator guy since 2012 or prior.

Our convo a year or so ago had to have some nuance. Were we discussing that polls that far out had little value because they were sure to change so much over the next year maybe?

Polls are just an interesting data point. It's information. They're like forecasting the weather. It's a lot more info than you'd have without them but they're obviously not completely predictive. Observing their trends is interesting though.

The thing I feel strongest about is that I don't think there is any widespread manipulation of polls for political purposes. Pollster's reputational interests are better served being seen as accurate and sound than as being partisan.
Oldsouljer
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Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Oldsouljer said:

Civilized said:

Bas2020 said:

95% of the media leans left.

Id say about 80% of the pollster community leans left as they are producing some of their own polls. The same media that has lied over and over and over again the last 15 years.

Once you figure that out, you know which polls are correct and which are just lib propaganda,

No, you know which polls are correct by going back and looking at which polls were correct over the years.

You act like you can't grade pollsters based on their actual performance, or using a large data set, which 538 does.

It doesn't matter a bit what political lean they are. Their results are their results. Numbers don't lie.

And why are you looking at just 2020 when most of these pollsters have been around for years or decades beyond that? Some of the pollsters in the 538 ratings have over a thousand polls in their data set.

And LOL at Trafalgar. They're one of the least-accurate pollsters out of the 300+ pollsters rated. Them being more right than some pollsters in 2020 is just an example of a broken clock being right twice a day. Their results are horrid when you grow the sample size beyond that one data point.

538 Pollster Ratings


That's a startling conclusion. Numbers are whatever their proponents say they are.

Yeah but if your poll is chronically off by more than most other polls (Trafalgar) there's no way to interpret that other than your poll is not as accurate as other polls.

Likewise, if your poll is consistently tighter to the actual election result it's fair to say your methods are likely superior and your results more reliable relative to other pollsters.
A year ago when Biden's numbers were in the sewer, you and I seemed to agree that public polls in general, were not to be taken especially seriously. The closer to election time, your opinion seems to have evolved. Whether a poll is an outlier or not, doesn't much matter in my opinion, if a poll serves as little more than someone's opinion, even if it's an "expert" opinion.

I've been a big poll aggregator guy since 2012 or prior.

Our convo a year or so ago had to have some nuance. Were we discussing that polls that far out had little value because they were sure to change so much over the next year maybe?

Polls are just an interesting data point. It's information. They're like forecasting the weather. It's a lot more info than you'd have without them but they're obviously not completely predictive. Observing their trends is interesting though.

The thing I feel strongest about is that I don't think there is any widespread manipulation of polls for political purposes. Pollster's reputational interests are better served being seen as accurate and sound than as being partisan.
Not if they're being well compensated to be partisan. And to that, the public would never be the wiser.
Werewolf
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Civilized said:

Bas2020 said:




"Not just are they eating animals, but they're eating humans. There's cannibalism in Haiti going on all the time. I have literally videos on my phone of people eating and sacrificing other people"

"The culture in Haiti, that people eat animals and sacrifice animals. You have a big voodoo culture in Haiti that's just rampant."

Democrats are importing these people by the tens of thousands for their votes

LOLOLOL

Cool story bro
#Sieve, I agree with your contention that Trump is causing DIVISION. #Sieve, you've been shown plenty of evidence, you have not excuse you didn't know.

caryking
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We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...

ncsupack1
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caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
caryking
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ncsupack1 said:

caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
I guess you didn't know... Yes... Stitch Golf
ncsupack1
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caryking said:

ncsupack1 said:

caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
I guess you didn't know... Yes... Stitch Golf
I didn't know, btw looks good.
Civilized
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caryking said:

ncsupack1 said:

caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
I guess you didn't know... Yes... Stitch Golf

Nice work Cary! You know the slogan ain't my personal favorite but it's a really nice looking bag!
caryking
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Civilized said:

caryking said:

ncsupack1 said:

caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
I guess you didn't know... Yes... Stitch Golf

Nice work Cary! You know the slogan ain't my personal favorite but it's a really nice looking bag!
I know everyone isn't going to like it; however, in business, you take these deals when you get them. Hey, we did stuff for Obama as well, when he was President...

Those type of deals are an honor, no matter the political party...
Civilized
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caryking said:

Civilized said:

caryking said:

ncsupack1 said:

caryking said:

We were commissioned to create this for Trump International Golf Club. This is where the second assasination attempt happened...


Sorry for asking, you in the golfing business I assume?
I guess you didn't know... Yes... Stitch Golf

Nice work Cary! You know the slogan ain't my personal favorite but it's a really nice looking bag!
I know everyone isn't going to like it; however, in business, you take these deals when you get them. Hey, we did stuff for Obama as well, when he was President...

Those type of deals are an honor, no matter the political party...

Completely agree. Huge to get that deal.
Werewolf
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Carolina says, "Make America Great Again".

caryking
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Werewolf
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All the way back in 2012............remember this.......way back in 2012.

........and what's EO 13818?



Werewolf
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naaaah, couldn't be............just another conspiracy theory ;-) ...........and the #sheeple sleep



Werewolf
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75% immediately with the goal to be 90% by Year 4.

GuerrillaPack
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The new talking point hot off the presses from the communist Democrat scum is that "Trump us just in it for himself" - insinuating that he is just running for President in order to clear himself from all their lawfare kangaroo court charges.

I've now heard this exact same talking point 3 times today.

https://instagr.am/p/DATzj1_yqF6

"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
CoachCase
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And Republicans are a threat to democracy!?! Blatant example again of how Democrats view government and their lust for control. Scary times to think that so many Americans are supporting this radical left movement without a clue that they are the puppets on a string.
GuerrillaPack
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CoachCase said:

And Republicans are a threat to democracy!?! Blatant example again of how Democrats view government and their lust for control. Scary times to think that so many Americans are supporting this radical left movement without a clue that they are the puppets on a string.
It's all the Saul Alinsky tactic of accusing their ideological opponents of what they (the Left) are actually doing.

The communist Democrats are the true threat to our Constitution, Bill of Rights, and nation/republic. They are the ones waging open war on the 1st and 2nd Amendments, and now talking about criminalizing the speech of their political opponents. They are the ones persecuting their political opponents (eg, Donald Trump) with lawfare and trying to imprison them on sham charges in kangaroo courts so that they cannot run for office. They are the ones trying to keep their political opponents (Donald Trump) off of the ballot, blatantly denying people the right to democratically vote for and elect their leaders.
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
CoachCase
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Oh, I agree. I really try to keep an open mind, but it has become apparent the doctrine as well as the tactics of the Dems is a movement that if successful will dramatically change the fabric and future of this country that will all but have wiped out what the Founding Fathers tried to establish. I'll be the first to admit that Pubs have flaws that should be noted, but the leadership of the Dems obviously has a socialist state on their radar and many Americans are blind to it. I hope they see before it is too late!
Civilized
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CoachCase said:

Oh, I agree. I really try to keep an open mind, but it has become apparent the doctrine as well as the tactics of the Dems is a movement that if successful will dramatically change the fabric and future of this country that will all but have wiped out what the Founding Fathers tried to establish. I'll be the first to admit that Pubs have flaws that should be noted, but the leadership of the Dems obviously has a socialist state on their radar and many Americans are blind to it. I hope they see before it is too late!

What legislation did Biden spearhead that you'd consider socialist and/or harmful to the fabric of the country?
GuerrillaPack
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Civilized said:

CoachCase said:

Oh, I agree. I really try to keep an open mind, but it has become apparent the doctrine as well as the tactics of the Dems is a movement that if successful will dramatically change the fabric and future of this country that will all but have wiped out what the Founding Fathers tried to establish. I'll be the first to admit that Pubs have flaws that should be noted, but the leadership of the Dems obviously has a socialist state on their radar and many Americans are blind to it. I hope they see before it is too late!

What legislation did Biden spearhead that you'd consider socialist and/or harmful to the fabric of the country?
Oh, I don't know.....openly waging war on the Second Amendment every day, fanatically pushing to ban guns like all Communist Regimes do...foaming at the mouth and red-faced screaming nearly every day in speeches to ban semi-automatic rifles.

Engaging in suppression of the freedom of speech of his political enemies, colluding with Big Tech to censor and ban speech he was opposed to -- for example, those who opposed the official narrative on the covid scamdemic.

Pushing the "Infrastructure" and "Inflation Reduction" acts, which even he has admitted had absolutely nothing to do with infrastructure or reducing inflation and everything to do with the communist "climate change" scam.
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Werewolf
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CoachCase
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Well GP gave some examples, but my post was directed primarily at the Democratic philosophy as a whole. Examples include the Woke movement, DEI, etc. Dems think that everything can be solved by government handouts which creates more dependence on the government and ultimately costs the taxpayers more. I could go on and on. Democrats always use racism and abortion as their mainstay. They are the ones which create division because they cannot run on the issues. And, when they do, they lie. I'm 59 years old and was born a Democrat. Twenty years ago the Democratic Party left me. There are many more like me,
Werewolf
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Sieve won't be able to watch his FAV show "as da Sieve's matrix turns" much longer. He'll join the rest of us to witness "as the New Republic returns". Getcha a big bag of popcorn, Sieve.

GuerrillaPack
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Founder of the "Walk Away" campaign explains what transformed him from someone who voted for Hillary in 2016 and literally cried tears when Trump won, to abandoning the Democrat party and becoming a Trump supporter…

It was discovering all the deliberate lies that the Leftist Establishment media tells/told about Trump, conservatives, Republicans.

"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
GuerrillaPack
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https://instagr.am/p/DAYmcHMq-zk
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Werewolf
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Sieve sucked this one up with his straw. Nappy hit the replay button for more.
Werewolf
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Looking like Kevin Corke is MAGA, seeing some indications. Also, he may be about to get a new gig!!! #FoxNewsisFlipping

Werewolf
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If you hadn't started paying close attention 9-10 years ago............

GuerrillaPack
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https://instagr.am/p/DAZffRhqdvl
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
Gulfstream4
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Civilized said:

CoachCase said:

Oh, I agree. I really try to keep an open mind, but it has become apparent the doctrine as well as the tactics of the Dems is a movement that if successful will dramatically change the fabric and future of this country that will all but have wiped out what the Founding Fathers tried to establish. I'll be the first to admit that Pubs have flaws that should be noted, but the leadership of the Dems obviously has a socialist state on their radar and many Americans are blind to it. I hope they see before it is too late!

What legislation did Biden spearhead that you'd consider socialist and/or harmful to the fabric of the country?


I don't know….maybe letting 10 million illegals into the country and not doing anything about it?
Werewolf
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will be closer to 20.........on top of the 20+ mil that were already here.
grantwolf
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Werewolf said:

will be closer to 20.........on top of the 20+ mil that were already here.
But no problem with Trump stopping a bi-partisan border bill because it would hurt him politically? Oh...right....the GOP only uses the border as a wedge issue and doesn't actually give a #### about it.
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