I happen to like Tucker and I think his show is very insightful. He brings up some stories that you won't see anywhere else. Yes he's a conservative and he does not try to pretend otherwise.PossumJenkins said:Wayland said:wilmwolf80 said:
If a patient from a congregate facility dies in the hospital, is that death counted on the congregate side?
I believe so. I was under the assumption that that was the case. Again with the caveat of anything reported before April 18, it is likely that some congregate deaths were being attributed to the general population COVID number since before that date they were not reported as separate numbers.
Again, I really wish the DHHS would be more transparent to the hospitalizations. If they are hotelling LTC cases in the hospital instead of sending them back to their facilities that isn't necessarily a bad thing. But if it is inflating the hospital numbers, let's make that clear.
And just come out and say how many patients are ICU vs non-ICU. Why aren't we being transparent with data?
There was a woman on last night talking about that and Cuomo's forcing off covid patients back into nursing homes. Both her in-laws passed and one was taken from the nursing home to the hospital and passed there. It was said that was NOT considered a nursing home death. In full transparency it was on the Tucker Carlson show so certainly fit the narrative and there was no specific rule cited (though I'm sure that would be tough to find anyway)...but just what was said on the show last night.
NY's nursing home deaths while high, do not reflect the same percentage as has shown in most places which would seem odd considering the forcing of covid patients back into them. Would lead me to believe the hospital deaths were not being counted as congregate deaths.
Coronavirus
2,620,648 Views |
20307 Replies |
Last: 5 hrs ago by Werewolf
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242926241.html
Quote:
At least one Charlotte gym says it will file a legal challenge to Gov. Roy Cooper's modified Phase Two coronavirus reopening, effective at 5 p.m. Friday, that keeps gyms and fitness centers closed.
Workout facilities had been expected to be allowed to reopen. But Cooper instead ordered a more "modest" approach that will keep them closed through June 26.
Rob Jenkins, co-owner of Charlotte's Hive Fitness, said his club has a lawyer and hopes to join with other fitness centers to challenge the order within days.
"We just feel like it's a blatant abuse of rights," Jenkins said. "It's not right for a public official to be able to shut down somebody's way of making a living for months on end."
statefan91 said:
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242926241.htmlQuote:
At least one Charlotte gym says it will file a legal challenge to Gov. Roy Cooper's modified Phase Two coronavirus reopening, effective at 5 p.m. Friday, that keeps gyms and fitness centers closed.
Workout facilities had been expected to be allowed to reopen. But Cooper instead ordered a more "modest" approach that will keep them closed through June 26.
Rob Jenkins, co-owner of Charlotte's Hive Fitness, said his club has a lawyer and hopes to join with other fitness centers to challenge the order within days.
"We just feel like it's a blatant abuse of rights," Jenkins said. "It's not right for a public official to be able to shut down somebody's way of making a living for months on end."
My gym in Durham is involved in one of the suits. I expect them to open just like the churches did.
ncsualum05 said:I happen to like Tucker and I think his show is very insightful. He brings up some stories that you won't see anywhere else. Yes he's a conservative and he does not try to pretend otherwise.PossumJenkins said:Wayland said:wilmwolf80 said:
If a patient from a congregate facility dies in the hospital, is that death counted on the congregate side?
I believe so. I was under the assumption that that was the case. Again with the caveat of anything reported before April 18, it is likely that some congregate deaths were being attributed to the general population COVID number since before that date they were not reported as separate numbers.
Again, I really wish the DHHS would be more transparent to the hospitalizations. If they are hotelling LTC cases in the hospital instead of sending them back to their facilities that isn't necessarily a bad thing. But if it is inflating the hospital numbers, let's make that clear.
And just come out and say how many patients are ICU vs non-ICU. Why aren't we being transparent with data?
There was a woman on last night talking about that and Cuomo's forcing off covid patients back into nursing homes. Both her in-laws passed and one was taken from the nursing home to the hospital and passed there. It was said that was NOT considered a nursing home death. In full transparency it was on the Tucker Carlson show so certainly fit the narrative and there was no specific rule cited (though I'm sure that would be tough to find anyway)...but just what was said on the show last night.
NY's nursing home deaths while high, do not reflect the same percentage as has shown in most places which would seem odd considering the forcing of covid patients back into them. Would lead me to believe the hospital deaths were not being counted as congregate deaths.
I wasn't stating one way or the other whether i did or didn't like him. Just simply presenting the facts and trying to be transparent unlike most of our media. There is obviously a conservative slant to fox just as there is a liberal slant to...well most of the others. I actually like him most of the time as well.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
For the week ending May 16
New COVIDVIEW Report is up. Shows Region 4 (which I believe is the SE) on a 7 week DECLINE in COVID deaths. With a PIC (Pneumonia, Influenza, COVID) death % of 6.2 which is BELOW what the national baseline for epidemic is (6.5%). I think this is marked incorrectly and the surveillance chart, unless I can find that for some reason Region 4 has a lower epidemic threshold than the other regions.
Nationally we are still at 12% PIC deaths. The national average is being driven by regions 1 (NE) and 2 (NY/NJ) at over 25% PIC deaths and region 3 (Mid-Atlantic) at almost 14%. One out of every 4 deaths in Regions 1 and 2 last week were PIC and 2 weeks ago Region 2 was at 30%!
Still reading the rest of this weeks report. National numbers being so skewed by northeast.
For the week ending May 16
New COVIDVIEW Report is up. Shows Region 4 (which I believe is the SE) on a 7 week DECLINE in COVID deaths. With a PIC (Pneumonia, Influenza, COVID) death % of 6.2 which is BELOW what the national baseline for epidemic is (6.5%). I think this is marked incorrectly and the surveillance chart, unless I can find that for some reason Region 4 has a lower epidemic threshold than the other regions.
Nationally we are still at 12% PIC deaths. The national average is being driven by regions 1 (NE) and 2 (NY/NJ) at over 25% PIC deaths and region 3 (Mid-Atlantic) at almost 14%. One out of every 4 deaths in Regions 1 and 2 last week were PIC and 2 weeks ago Region 2 was at 30%!
Still reading the rest of this weeks report. National numbers being so skewed by northeast.
Looks like breweries got their wish and get to open in phase 2.
https://www.ncbeer.org/docs/05_22_20_EO_141_Guidance_on_Bars.pdf
https://www.ncbeer.org/docs/05_22_20_EO_141_Guidance_on_Bars.pdf
Wayland said:
Looks like breweries got their wish and get to open in phase 2.
https://www.ncbeer.org/docs/05_22_20_EO_141_Guidance_on_Bars.pdf
Shocking the cans and can nots according to the governor. Just ridiculous arbitrary bull*****
Get a solid lobby and/or lawyer, Governor will back off.packgrad said:Wayland said:
Looks like breweries got their wish and get to open in phase 2.
https://www.ncbeer.org/docs/05_22_20_EO_141_Guidance_on_Bars.pdf
Shocking the cans and can nots according to the governor. Just ridiculous arbitrary bull*****
Side note: Going into the evening, DHHS will be almost 50 deaths behind media numbers. Is this all the small counties clearing backlog before the holiday weekend? Worldometers uses the NandO numbers so they have caught up. Even still, less than 30 deaths clearing the backlog.
Interesting study. Bolded for emphasis.
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930610-3
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930610-3
Quote:
SUMMARY Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide 'megapools', circulating SARS-CoV-2specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ~70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike and N proteins each accounted for 11-27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARS-CoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating 'common cold' coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.
5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 740
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,265
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
I saw this report a couple of days ago. It is an interesting idea that definitely warrants additional study. At this point, I have not seen enough to say it is a definite causal link to protection, but there is enough there for further study. We do know kids tend to have more colds due to the fact they are close together daily in school during a period when the cold virus' is more prevalent. So this would help to explain why many kids seem to have better outcomes than adults. Unfortunately, even if it does provide some resistance, human coronavirus' only account for 15-30% of colds yearly in the US. This means 70-85% of people in the US who have had a cold would likely not have T-cells adapted to a coronavirus.Wayland said:
Interesting study. Bolded for emphasis.
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930610-3Quote:
SUMMARY Understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is important for vaccine development, interpreting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis, and calibration of pandemic control measures. Using HLA class I and II predicted peptide 'megapools', circulating SARS-CoV-2specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were identified in ~70% and 100% of COVID-19 convalescent patients, respectively. CD4+T cell responses to spike, the main target of most vaccine efforts, were robust and correlated with the magnitude of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA titers. The M, spike and N proteins each accounted for 11-27% of the total CD4+ response, with additional responses commonly targeting nsp3, nsp4, ORF3a and ORF8, among others. For CD8+ T cells, spike and M were recognized, with at least eight SARS-CoV-2 ORFs targeted. Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating 'common cold' coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.
I was watching a weekly update from a Wake Forest School of Medicine epidemiologist this week and he said the asymptomatic cases are interesting to study. There is a thought that some people testing as asymptomatic are not actually infected. The theory is many asymptomatic people have the virus present in their nasal passages, but they do not have enough concentration to generate an immune response (ie, not infected). So they test positive (ie., have virus present), but they never really get sick and show symptoms (currently called asymptomatic). This would help explain why the anti-body tests they have started conducting in the Triad region are only finding about 2% of people to have been infected. The epidemiologists expected a much higher number, based on the estimated percentage of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases, but the anti-body test is finding a much lower percentage than expected. This is why they are starting to think not all asymptomatic people are actually infected.This theory should be able to be tested, by testing people who were asymptomatic at a later date to see if they have anti-bodies. If they tested asymptomatic, but do not develop anti-bodies, they were likely never infected.
Counting the last 9 days, day over day, tests executed I get 110,315
Counting the DHHS last 9 days reported, tests executed I get 93,635.
That is 16,680 tests unaccounted for in the last 9 days. That isn't insignificant. If you are reporting a lag that high you need to say something.
Counting the DHHS last 9 days reported, tests executed I get 93,635.
That is 16,680 tests unaccounted for in the last 9 days. That isn't insignificant. If you are reporting a lag that high you need to say something.
Wayland said:
Counting the last 9 days, day over day, tests executed I get 110,315
Counting the DHHS last 9 days reported, tests executed I get 93,635.
That is 16,680 tests unaccounted for in the last 9 days. That isn't insignificant. If you are reporting a lag that high you need to say something.
I went back all the way to 4/21 and found another 258 cases that are missing. Bringing the total since then to 16,938 tests run that aren't being accounted for.
It is unfortunate that policy decisions are being based almost exclusively on numbers, when so much uncertainty surrounds those numbers. I'd wager that there is a lot of human error in the entry of the data, which is understandable to a degree, but unfortunate given the importance that is being placed on these numbers.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,265
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
With regards to the large number of cases reported today (1,000+), it appears the majority of those cases are from tests run on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. These cases are not all from testing in one day and I pointed it out to Brian Murphy in response to his Tweet linked above. I have included a chart for today that shows the origin (specimen date) for the cases reported today. I also included a chart showing cases by specimen date and reporting date, so you can see the lag/lumpiness in the data reporting.
Also, NC continues to lump reporting on deaths, so I have attached a chart showing the date of death by the reporting date. As you can see, of the 9 deaths reported today, they are spread over three days. Additionally, I have included Pie Charts for Cases and Deaths, to show the breakdown of where in the population these are originating. As you can see, the bulk of cases are from the general public, but the vast majority of deaths are from Congregate facilities.
What you can not see is the distribution of cases inclusive of foot processing and other manufacturing facilities. Based on the nature of these facilities, their cases and deaths should be treated more like Congregate facilities and they should not be considered "community spread" cases. I do know the Federal government looks at these separate from "community spread", so I am not sure why NC does not break these out separately.
Cases by Specimen Date for 5/23 Reporting:
Cases by Specimen Date by Reporting Date
Deaths by Date by Reporting Date
Cases by Population Source
Deaths by Population Source
Also, NC continues to lump reporting on deaths, so I have attached a chart showing the date of death by the reporting date. As you can see, of the 9 deaths reported today, they are spread over three days. Additionally, I have included Pie Charts for Cases and Deaths, to show the breakdown of where in the population these are originating. As you can see, the bulk of cases are from the general public, but the vast majority of deaths are from Congregate facilities.
What you can not see is the distribution of cases inclusive of foot processing and other manufacturing facilities. Based on the nature of these facilities, their cases and deaths should be treated more like Congregate facilities and they should not be considered "community spread" cases. I do know the Federal government looks at these separate from "community spread", so I am not sure why NC does not break these out separately.
Cases by Specimen Date for 5/23 Reporting:
Cases by Specimen Date by Reporting Date
Deaths by Date by Reporting Date
Cases by Population Source
Deaths by Population Source
5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331
480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths
176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate
Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.
Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.
Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,265
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
They also did not report any deaths on the deaths by date chart for 5/25. The last date reported is on 5/24. They did report cases by specimen date for 5/25, so not sure what is going on with the deaths by date graph. I suspect tomorrow will be like a normal Tuesday and we will get a big data adjustment. If so, I predict the media will ignore the data dump (as they typically do) and report it as a cause of concern if the cases jump up.Wayland said:5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331
480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths
176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate
Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.
Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.
Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)
Like you, I would like to see more details on hospitalizations. There seems to be something strange going on with the numbers, since they have not been below 400 for over a month.
I know it is French data, but since Davie (I believe) mentioned the Hong Kong flu. It was interesting to see the curve similarities of excess deaths for H3N2 and COVID-19. The yellow curve is the 2003 heat wave in Europe.
Yep. The national news had a field day with our May 23 numbers... and it fit just perfectly with their intended "Memorial weekend carelessness is going to spark another wave" slant to their reporting.
While I'm not as sophisticated as you guys (I use the DHHS numbers because that's what I started with at the onset) any idiot should be able to see that our "record" single day jump of 1,107 new reported cases also came on a day where we reported a "record" 26,358 new tests (about double the normal "high" day of any recent week).
Result for that day was 4.1% of new reported cases out of new reported tests.
From the date I started tracking the DHHS numbers we had a "high" running average of 8.51% total cases out of total tests on 4/20 and we have been steadily decreasing ever since. Yesterday brought my running average (from close to two months of data) down to 6.84% of total cases out of total tests.
There was discussion about one of the national parties convention that is currently scheduled for late August in Charlotte that came out that same day - so I guess it was somebody's job to cherry pick a number to try to push back on those comments. It's gets sickening after a while.
I've not criticized our governor to anybody up until this point, but the length of time that he indicates he is committing to stay within Phase 2 just seems like it is overly unnecessary (and certainly not in keeping with most of what he has done previously)... but then he comes out and he says it shouldn't "be political" in his response.
Well, is it or isn't it? The numbers suggest that it probably now is...
While I'm not as sophisticated as you guys (I use the DHHS numbers because that's what I started with at the onset) any idiot should be able to see that our "record" single day jump of 1,107 new reported cases also came on a day where we reported a "record" 26,358 new tests (about double the normal "high" day of any recent week).
Result for that day was 4.1% of new reported cases out of new reported tests.
From the date I started tracking the DHHS numbers we had a "high" running average of 8.51% total cases out of total tests on 4/20 and we have been steadily decreasing ever since. Yesterday brought my running average (from close to two months of data) down to 6.84% of total cases out of total tests.
There was discussion about one of the national parties convention that is currently scheduled for late August in Charlotte that came out that same day - so I guess it was somebody's job to cherry pick a number to try to push back on those comments. It's gets sickening after a while.
I've not criticized our governor to anybody up until this point, but the length of time that he indicates he is committing to stay within Phase 2 just seems like it is overly unnecessary (and certainly not in keeping with most of what he has done previously)... but then he comes out and he says it shouldn't "be political" in his response.
Well, is it or isn't it? The numbers suggest that it probably now is...
100% political. Just like his tweet "Wearing a mask shows you care" or something along those lines.
And with regards to data. Get ready for the media to freak over whatever death totals DHHS releases today or tomorrow. They are so far behind in their lagging data that they are due for a big artificial dump day that will contain deaths from over the course of the last few weeks.
DHHS definitely does strange things with how they package their dailies stats updates. Whether intentional or not. At least they do provide now date of sample collection and actual date of death so you have some context to the data. But the media focuses a lot on the 'daily' number which is all really lagged information anyways.
Remember that as you consume national data, that death and case trend data is really telling you what might have happened up to a week ago or maybe more.
I have seen enough examples of what is going on around the world that I am not concerned. Will NC see some spikes, probably, because we didn't kill everyone like NY or NJ or UK or Italy. So our curve isn't going to be as pretty coming down. But even with hospitalizations increasing and a data dump coming we still haven't beaten our peak deaths from 4/15-4/18. We are going to see the spikes because we didn't get as close to the necessary seroprevalence needed (which is likely as low as 5-10% based on other contributing factors).
Media needs to stop freaking out over small things, look outside NC and around the world and see the truth of what is real. Or maybe NC is the unicorn that sees a completely different trajectory of the virus than literally anywhere else in the world.
DHHS definitely does strange things with how they package their dailies stats updates. Whether intentional or not. At least they do provide now date of sample collection and actual date of death so you have some context to the data. But the media focuses a lot on the 'daily' number which is all really lagged information anyways.
Remember that as you consume national data, that death and case trend data is really telling you what might have happened up to a week ago or maybe more.
I have seen enough examples of what is going on around the world that I am not concerned. Will NC see some spikes, probably, because we didn't kill everyone like NY or NJ or UK or Italy. So our curve isn't going to be as pretty coming down. But even with hospitalizations increasing and a data dump coming we still haven't beaten our peak deaths from 4/15-4/18. We are going to see the spikes because we didn't get as close to the necessary seroprevalence needed (which is likely as low as 5-10% based on other contributing factors).
Media needs to stop freaking out over small things, look outside NC and around the world and see the truth of what is real. Or maybe NC is the unicorn that sees a completely different trajectory of the virus than literally anywhere else in the world.
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
It's hard not to look at it like that. The same thing happened in Virginia where the primaries were originally on June 9th, but then the governor decided to issue an executive order where they couldn't be held on that date. Of course that would help the party that is in power, which in this case would be the governor's partywilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,265
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
You may have missed my chart on the 1,000+ case day, but it was definitely due to a data dump and not a sudden "spike" in cases. The majority of the cases reported on the "single day" spanned five days of sampling and were not due a single day of cases as the news media is misleadingly reporting.TheStorm said:
Yep. The national news had a field day with our May 23 numbers... and it fit just perfectly with their intended "Memorial weekend carelessness is going to spark another wave" slant to their reporting.
While I'm not as sophisticated as you guys (I use the DHHS numbers because that's what I started with at the onset) any idiot should be able to see that our "record" single day jump of 1,107 new reported cases also came on a day where we reported a "record" 26,358 new tests (about double the normal "high" day of any recent week).
Result for that day was 4.1% of new reported cases out of new reported tests.
From the date I started tracking the DHHS numbers we had a "high" running average of 8.51% total cases out of total tests on 4/20 and we have been steadily decreasing ever since. Yesterday brought my running average (from close to two months of data) down to 6.84% of total cases out of total tests.
There was discussion about one of the national parties convention that is currently scheduled for late August in Charlotte that came out that same day - so I guess it was somebody's job to cherry pick a number to try to push back on those comments. It's gets sickening after a while.
I've not criticized our governor to anybody up until this point, but the length of time that he indicates he is committing to stay within Phase 2 just seems like it is overly unnecessary (and certainly not in keeping with most of what he has done previously)... but then he comes out and he says it shouldn't "be political" in his response.
Well, is it or isn't it? The numbers suggest that it probably now is...
Yep --- CNN ran an article yesterday about GA, a month after crucifying it for reopening. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.htmlTheStorm said:
Yep. The national news had a field day with our May 23 numbers... and it fit just perfectly with their intended "Memorial weekend carelessness is going to spark another wave" slant to their reporting.
Couple of notes....
article opens with this paras: A month since Georgia took some of the earliest and most extensive steps to reopen parts of its economy, Covid-19 cases have largely flattened in the state, albeit with a slight recent uptick.
"The bad news is we are not seeing a reduction in transmission, but I don't see a spike in transmission," said Dr. Gerardo Chowell, professor of mathematical epidemiology at Georgia State University's School of Public Health.
well....i wonder if there is any driver for why it has not gone down?
Then couple of paragraphs later....
Some health experts worried that the reopening, combined with the state's limited testing capability, could lead to an increase in cases that could overwhelm hospitals, such as happened in Albany, Georgia, in the early days of the pandemic.
So far, that fear has not been borne out. The preliminary data suggests that reopening has not led to a spike in cases -- but the virus has continued to steadily infect people and shows no signs of waning.
For the bold part, CNN conveniently leaves out that it too roasted Kemp and the people of GA, painting every type of bad scenario of wreckless leadership. And again points out that cases are continuing (did anyone ever suggest they would not)?
Finally....in the 11th para, the article finally quotes the same professor acknowledging that the increase in counts are almost surely tied to significant increase in testing.
Dr. Chowell told CNN the recent increase in cases was likely due more to expanded testing in the state rather than the reopening. He said he expected the current transmission rate to remain steady through the summer.
My question is....if this is an article about how GA is now doing...shouldn't that be the lead of the story? That it has seen an increase, but it has also increased testing, which likely justifies it, not that it is some kind of bad scenario?
Since many people never read past the headline, and few read past the first couple of paragraphs, the story sure seems slanted a bit. But surely CNN wouldn't do that?
I mean, they wouldn't run banners blaring "states reopen as covid case counts increase" continually streaming along w/o any reference to test increases would they? Or skip over asking Gov Cuomo about his retirement center early policy that led to increased deaths, or how that state, despite that decision, has a far lower % of nursing home reported deaths than other states....which, to me, seems like needs to be researched a bit to confirm...surely CNN is all over that, right?
statefan91 said:wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
That's part of it, isn't it? You can only have 10 people indoors right now as dictated by "the experts" that have been wrong every step of the process. And to take it a step further, the models our governor have used have been even worse. The Mecklenburg County commissioners barely voted to accept $50M in funding, that the residents would have paid via taxes, for the convention because they are hyper political, and incredibly stupid. They can continue to say decisions are made based on science, and not politics, but when do we finally tell them their science sucks?
statefan91 said:wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
I don't think it's political that they wouldn't want to have it. Much of the reason Cooper was elected was due to the negative impacts the State felt from HB2, I don't think he will want to be on the hook for creating a huge revenue loss for the biggest city in the State. I agree, I want the science to dictate it, but I think it's also much different from the beaches where it's outdoors and people are spread out vs. inside an arena for multiple days with 19k packed in.wilmwolf80 said:statefan91 said:wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.
All these people weren't just on the beach. They were in restaurants and stores, etc. but it is different than being in an arena. I don't think it has any chance to happen at full capacity. But if capacity were reduced, and all the other guidelines, followed, I don't see any reason it couldn't take place. Saying outright that it isn't going to happen at this point, I don't approve of that. And it doesn't matter to me which party we are talking about, I would feel the same if it were the dem convention. It's an opportunity for economic recovery that shouldn't be cancelled until all avenues are explored.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001 will probably respond to this because he isn't smart enough to understand how ignore works.
I think it is the exact opposite here. Cooper would run on being willing to stand up against the republicans on this.statefan91 said:I don't think it's political that they wouldn't want to have it. Much of the reason Cooper was elected was due to the negative impacts the State felt from HB2, I don't think he will want to be on the hook for creating a huge revenue loss for the biggest city in the State. I agree, I want the science to dictate it, but I think it's also much different from the beaches where it's outdoors and people are spread out vs. inside an arena for multiple days with 19k packed in.wilmwolf80 said:statefan91 said:wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.
Last weekend? I live in Surf City and right around the second week after the cancellation of all the sporting events we had an enormous influx of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maryland license plates that this area hasn't seen even on the biggest rental weeks of the summer. These were all RENTAL PROPERTY owners (most of which never even stay at their own property once during a normal year). Technically, they shouldn't have been allowed to come here like that, but they did anyway. Same exact timeframe as the Rhode Island thing - after New York exploded...wilmwolf80 said:statefan91 said:wilmwolf80 said:
Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.
I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.
I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.
I don't even want to hear about Charlotte being worried about a convention that's not even scheduled until three (3) months from now... that's ridiculous!
*Hey, and I have no problem wearing a mask (I have one around my neck anytime I leave the house in fact) because I see that as just common courtesy to others - but if everything COVID action-related is political - why am I not seeing at least 50% of the general population then wearing a mask? Maybe because it has absolutely nothing to do with partisan politics despite the media trying to make it as such?
Featured Stories
See All
IPS FILM ROOM: Why Is NC State Shooting So Many Mid Range Shots?
by Jake McSwain
8:43
18h ago
495
THE WALK THROUGH VAULT: What Went Wrong On The Safety
by Phillip Danford
2027 INTRO: OL Carter Jones
by P.J. Williams
GAME PHOTOS: NC State's 82-70 Home Win Over Coastal Carolina
by Steve Murphy
IPS INTEL: Coaches On The Road
by Steve Williams