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5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

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5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

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5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

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5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755

415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths

511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.

Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

All the lagging congregate deaths.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily total

NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm

All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5

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5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603

446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726

422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)

Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.

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5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645

455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748

788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate

DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.

Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.

Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.

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5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224

459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761

758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate

1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.

Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.

I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.

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5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582

464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775

1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate

DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.

Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.

The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).

Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.

Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.

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5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656

468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths

497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate

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5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960

475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths

742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate

Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).

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5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331

480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths

176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate

Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.

Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.

Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)

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5/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
24,628
NC Deaths**
794
Currently Hospitalized
702 < 92% reporting, yesterday was 72% reporting. Increase partly lagged data
Completed Tests
364,156

497 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

235 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
559 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)

142 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-1)

WRAL is at 819 and NandO is at 831 deaths

488 positive cases over 11825 new tests. 4.1% positive rate

Hospitalization increase likely happened before the weekend and is just being reported now. We still need more insight here into admits/discharges and ICU. Hotelling? Localized outbreaks? Definitely a number to watch and since we have all these contact tracers now, let's get us some context!

cowboypack02 said:

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statefan91 said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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statefan91 said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.

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I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.

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I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.

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I don't think it's political that they wouldn't want to have it. Much of the reason Cooper was elected was due to the negative impacts the State felt from HB2, I don't think he will want to be on the hook for creating a huge revenue loss for the biggest city in the State. I agree, I want the science to dictate it, but I think it's also much different from the beaches where it's outdoors and people are spread out vs. inside an arena for multiple days with 19k packed in.

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I think it is the exact opposite here. Cooper would run on being willing to stand up against the republicans on this.

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Of course he will. That's the whole MO with all of this. Especially now that we are decidedly more and more on the downslope. But unfortunately, it's all about November...

Nobody seems to want to remember the absolute uproar from the national media when the president first wanted to shut down access from certain countries. So much so that he had to compromise with some of those earliest decisions. Same decisions that he now gets blasted for by the way...

Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

TheStorm said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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statefan91 said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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statefan91 said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Yeah, I have really held out hope that the governor isn't making decisions politically, but it sure does look that way in light of the convention talk.

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I live in Charlotte and have no desire to see 20-30k people come from everywhere in the country to visit for the RNC. We can only have 10 people indoors right now, I don't see a feasible way we get to 19k in 3 months.

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I don't have a problem with not having it if the science and numbers dictate that. The problem I see is a political desire to not have it influencing how the numbers are reported and interpreted. And not wanting a bunch of people from all over the country there is a very valid reason, but at the same time, tens of thousands of out of town people were down here at the beaches last weekend, it's hard to keep people away if they want to come.

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I don't think it's political that they wouldn't want to have it. Much of the reason Cooper was elected was due to the negative impacts the State felt from HB2, I don't think he will want to be on the hook for creating a huge revenue loss for the biggest city in the State. I agree, I want the science to dictate it, but I think it's also much different from the beaches where it's outdoors and people are spread out vs. inside an arena for multiple days with 19k packed in.

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I think it is the exact opposite here. Cooper would run on being willing to stand up against the republicans on this.

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Of course he will. That's the whole MO with all of this. Especially now that we are decidedly more and more on the downslope. But unfortunately, it's all about November...

Nobody seems to want to remember the absolute uproar from the national media when the president first wanted to shut down access from certain countries. So much so that he had to compromise with some of those earliest decisions. Same decisions that he now gets blasted for by the way...

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Its unfortunate that we will never have a real accounting of what actually happened vs. who said and did what.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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No. NC provides absolutely no context to what a 'hospitalization' entails. I see a lot of other metrics with other states.

Total individual patients requiring hospitalization. Number of patients in ICU. Number of patients on ventilators. New admits per day. New live discharges per day. Hospitalizations by region. Hotelling of LTC patients?

There are all sorts of data that could be provided, but apparently it is too much to ask during this crisis for someone to do a 5 minute survey and forward it to DHHS and then for DHHS to compile that information. I bet you could get an out of work college student to do it for cheap. Hell, there are a lot of people compiling and analyzing data for free right now.

Having watched all the NC briefings, there is a lack of transparency. They won't acknowledge what the data means when they can provide context. They will barely even acknowledge food processing plants.

If you don't provide any context to your data, you can control the narrative.

Wayland said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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No. NC provides absolutely no context to what a 'hospitalization' entails. I see a lot of other metrics with other states.

Total individual patients requiring hospitalization. Number of patients in ICU. Number of patients on ventilators. New admits per day. New live discharges per day. Hospitalizations by region. Hotelling of LTC patients?

There are all sorts of data that could be provided, but apparently it is too much to ask during this crisis for someone to do a 5 minute survey and forward it to DHHS and then for DHHS to compile that information. I bet you could get an out of work college student to do it for cheap. Hell, there are a lot of people compiling and analyzing data for free right now.

Having watched all the NC briefings, there is a lack of transparency. They won't acknowledge what the data means when they can provide context. They will barely even acknowledge food processing plants.

If you don't provide any context to your data, you can control the narrative.

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Exactly. I know that Cooper and all his minions are doing this by design. This is about control make no mistake. He's a POS. I'd feel differently if he were making the changes and scaling back by providing back up but no, he can't do it b/c he'd be exposed.

wilmwolf80 said:

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All these people weren't just on the beach. They were in restaurants and stores, etc. but it is different than being in an arena. I don't think it has any chance to happen at full capacity. But if capacity were reduced, and all the other guidelines, followed, I don't see any reason it couldn't take place. Saying outright that it isn't going to happen at this point, I don't approve of that. And it doesn't matter to me which party we are talking about, I would feel the same if it were the dem convention. It's an opportunity for economic recovery that shouldn't be cancelled until all avenues are explored.

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I don't think anyone has said it wouldn't happen outright, at least not that I've seen. I have seen that Governor Cooper won't give them 100% confirmation it will happen which I think is appropriate. I think the RNC needs to come up with a plan that works with the State or County Health Departments to ensure they put in the recommended protocols if they're going to have the event at whatever level they're going to have it.

Also - I can see this is getting uber-political but I'll just say I don't think Cooper would want to get on a soapbox and shout about how he stood up against Republicans. This State is purple, but definitely leans Conservative and I don't think he would want to just throw way those votes for this.

Universities across the country, including NC schools, are opening campuses and dormitories late summer and fall for students who are also from throughout the country. But our governor will not say whether the RNC can have their convention. This governor is governing by the cans and the can nots. If they are essential to him, or he is sued, they are able to open. If they are his political rivals, he is unable to commit to an answer. Not sure I can remember a governor who governed more by putting his toes in the water. Coward.

Edit... don't mean disrespect to you 91, as I know your leaning is different than mine. My frustration is directly with leadership, not those of us trying to figure out our lives based on leadership's decisions.

Fair enough, I just don't think it's advantageous politically for him to flat out say no to RNC coming. Maybe that's what you're saying is that he's being tepid and not saying it but not saying yes either, therefore leaving them in a limbo but trying to shirk responsibility for the decision.

In a perfect world you would think that our total number of confirmed cases would equal the sum of a) deaths, b) current hospitalizations, c) confirmed recoveries and d) those that tested positive that didn't initially need hospitalization and are still within that 14 day isolation period... but the sum of the parts falls way short of that confirmed total for whatever reason.

Seems like a very large number of recoveries just don't get tracked and then later reported...

wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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Yeah, I think very early on you weren't seeing this because there was a concern as to whether we had enough overall beds... not to mention ICU capacities. My feeling is that since those anticipated heaviest spikes never really happened here that they can now be more aggressive in admitting somebody earlier and "getting them a really good look even if it may not be totally necessary" than they felt they could be towards the beginning of the outbreak.

No doubt, I think that's what they are doing as well. My only problem with it is when the number of people hospitalized is then used as justification for extending the orders. Hospitalizing people because we can is fine, but it's not the same as having people near death in intensive care.

As much crap as I have given the DHHS for the reporting numbers, now I'd like the media to be clear on where they get some of the information.

Carteret County lists 3 COVID deaths and only 1 active case. DHHS has them with 3 COVID deaths, NandO has them at 9 deaths. So maybe the gap isn't as big as it seems.

Most of the major counties appear to be up to date. There is a couple missing in the DHHS total in Johnston. Just going through quickly to see if I see anything else that stands out.

TheStorm said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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Yeah, I think very early on you weren't seeing this because there was a concern as to whether we had enough overall beds... not to mention ICU capacities. My feeling is that since those anticipated heaviest spikes never really happened here that they can now be more aggressive in admitting somebody earlier and "getting them a really good look even if it may not be totally necessary" than they felt they could be towards the beginning of the outbreak.

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Which is why knowing the actual COVID ICU number, new admits, and new discharges would allow us to understand what that number means.

I don't care if they are keeping mild cases for additional observation because they have capacity (and need money), just be transparent.

RE: Recoveries. On a state level, it is just a calculated estimate. Some individual counties actually do track resolved cases though.

ncsualum05 said:

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Wayland said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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No. NC provides absolutely no context to what a 'hospitalization' entails. I see a lot of other metrics with other states.

Total individual patients requiring hospitalization. Number of patients in ICU. Number of patients on ventilators. New admits per day. New live discharges per day. Hospitalizations by region. Hotelling of LTC patients?

There are all sorts of data that could be provided, but apparently it is too much to ask during this crisis for someone to do a 5 minute survey and forward it to DHHS and then for DHHS to compile that information. I bet you could get an out of work college student to do it for cheap. Hell, there are a lot of people compiling and analyzing data for free right now.

Having watched all the NC briefings, there is a lack of transparency. They won't acknowledge what the data means when they can provide context. They will barely even acknowledge food processing plants.

If you don't provide any context to your data, you can control the narrative.

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Exactly. I know that Cooper and all his minions are doing this by design. This is about control make no mistake. He's a POS. I'd feel differently if he were making the changes and scaling back by providing back up but no, he can't do it b/c he'd be exposed.

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This is where I am. If Cooper was showing actual data as far as why we were doing what we were doing, how it compared to other states, and where we were at in the process i would feel better.

Instead what we have is the DHHS and media reporting different numbers. A bunch of numbers that no one has any idea how to process and numbers that don't make any sense.

We have no idea how any of the decisions are being made or how the numbers work in terms of defining the different phases.

I'd be OK with the process if there was transparency, but there isn't any. All I can see is what we are doing in comparison other states in the SE that have opened such as Georgia, SC, Tenn. or Florida.

We are supposed to be believing the science, but who knows what the science is for the steps we are taking at this point?

Things just don't make any sense. We can have players on campus in the facilities, but not in gyms. Bars aren't allowed to be open, but restaurants, ABC stores, and taprooms can be. We are being told that the Republican National Convention may not be allowed in Charlotte on August 24th, but NC State and UNC are going to be opening up campus and having people move into dorms on August 3rd and starting classes on August 10th (per N&O).

I just need someone to explain it to me.......is that too much to ask?

What "Because Science!" isn't sufficient? /s

TheStorm said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Anecdotally, I know a person whose husband tested positive this week. He was showing cold-like symptoms, but nothing serious. He was admitted to the hospital for observation after the positive test. Are they breaking down patients that are in intensive care from those that are just under observation?

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Yeah, I think very early on you weren't seeing this because there was a concern as to whether we had enough overall beds... not to mention ICU capacities. My feeling is that since those anticipated heaviest spikes never really happened here that they can now be more aggressive in admitting somebody earlier and "getting them a really good look even if it may not be totally necessary" than they felt they could be towards the beginning of the outbreak.

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I also think they're much more likely to admit someone with a positive covid test + lesser symptoms to the hospital since they're not overrun.

Wayland said:

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What "Because Science!" isn't sufficient? /s

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Haha. And by "science" they mean they are flawed statistics. The "science" as they say is really the microbiologist and epidemiologist that are researching the virus. The people working on treatments and vaccines.

And of course the "science" is really in hypothesis and trial and error phases so science isn't there yet anyway.

Wayland said:

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As much crap as I have given the DHHS for the reporting numbers, now I'd like the media to be clear on where they get some of the information.

Carteret County lists 3 COVID deaths and only 1 active case. DHHS has them with 3 COVID deaths, NandO has them at 9 deaths. So maybe the gap isn't as big as it seems.

Most of the major counties appear to be up to date. There is a couple missing in the DHHS total in Johnston. Just going through quickly to see if I see anything else that stands out.

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I wonder if the media are still mining their own data and counting people who died "with" Covid as those who died "from" Covid. They admitted to doing this in the past - counting a "with" Covid as a "from" Covid" as a Covid death. The NCDHHS death calculations come from the county health departments and are based on coroner determinations of deaths. Unless the media are licensed coroners, I will defer to NCDHHS numbers.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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As much crap as I have given the DHHS for the reporting numbers, now I'd like the media to be clear on where they get some of the information.

Carteret County lists 3 COVID deaths and only 1 active case. DHHS has them with 3 COVID deaths, NandO has them at 9 deaths. So maybe the gap isn't as big as it seems.

Most of the major counties appear to be up to date. There is a couple missing in the DHHS total in Johnston. Just going through quickly to see if I see anything else that stands out.

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I wonder if the media are still mining their own data and counting people who died "with" Covid as those who died "from" Covid. They admitted to doing this in the past - counting a "with" Covid as a "from" Covid" as a Covid death. The NCDHHS death calculations come from the county health departments and are based on coroner determinations of deaths. Unless the media are licensed coroners, I will defer to NCDHHS numbers.

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While there continues to be some lag. There is certainly a possibility over time that the media had picked up a couple cases that ended up getting attributed elsewhere or eventually deemed not COVID and they have never gone back to reconcile.

Still expect another big day tomorrow as the state continues to catch up from the holiday weekend lull.

I thought it was just the little guys clearing the backlog, but Mecklenburg county is going a day over day death count of +13. I guess when you have that many congregate settings affected, it is going to hit eventually. They are also the highest on the daily case count as well.

Going to be interesting to see where all these shake out.

Looks like Mecklenburg might come in day over day with +13 deaths and ~+130 cases in tomorrow's count. Looks like not just the small guys clearing backlog.

With only two other counties trending to have over and additional 30 cases on the day (Guilford +51, Duplin +37), DHHS better send those tracers down to Charlotte to figure out what is going on.

Going to be another interesting day in the media.

Wayland said:

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Looks like Mecklenburg might come in day over day with +13 deaths and ~+130 cases in tomorrow's count. Looks like not just the small guys clearing backlog.

With only two other counties trending to have over and additional 30 cases on the day (Guilford +51, Duplin +37), DHHS better send those tracers down to Charlotte to figure out what is going on.

Going to be another interesting day in the media.

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Looks like I may be posting my charts showing when the actual cases and deaths occurred, instead of just lumping them on the day they were reported to the media. The media are so lazy and I am tired of WRAL talking about their "data trackers." I have not seen any reporting from them that indicates they have a basic understanding of how to track and report statistics. The only thing they typically do is repeat the numbers posted on the NCDHHS website and have no idea (or do not care) how to present the context of the numbers. The context requires you to actually do some work and try to look inside the numbers.

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5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

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5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

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5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

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5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755

415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths

511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.

Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

All the lagging congregate deaths.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily total

NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm

All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5

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5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603

446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726

422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)

Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.

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5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645

455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748

788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate

DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.

Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.

Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.

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5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224

459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761

758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate

1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.

Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.

I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.

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5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582

464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775

1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate

DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.

Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.

The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).

Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.

Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.

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5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656

468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths

497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate

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5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960

475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths

742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate

Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).

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5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331

480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths

176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate

Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.

Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.

Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)

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5/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
24,628
NC Deaths**
794
Currently Hospitalized
702 < 92% reporting, yesterday was 72% reporting. Increase partly lagged data
Completed Tests
364,156

497 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

235 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
559 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)

142 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-1)

WRAL is at 819 and NandO is at 831 deaths

488 positive cases over 11825 new tests. 4.1% positive rate

Hospitalization increase likely happened before the weekend and is just being reported now. We still need more insight here into admits/discharges and ICU. Hotelling? Localized outbreaks? Definitely a number to watch and since we have all these contact tracers now, let's get us some context!

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5/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
25,412
NC Deaths**
827
Currently Hospitalized
708
Completed Tests
375,192

515 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
64 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

248 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
579 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

146 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 858 (+2) and NandO is at 856 deaths

784 positive cases over 11036 new tests. 7.1% positive rate

By Date of Death, of the deaths added today 2 are from prior to 5/7 (or unaccounted for since then), 1 on 5/9, 1 on 5/10, 1 on 5/14. Each of the last 7 days had at least 2 deaths from today's count.

The last 2 days were the highest 2 days of non-congregate deaths.

Despite the high total of the last two days, the overall death trend is still stable.

With the number of congregate outbreaks continuing to increase, it seems odd that non-congregate deaths would have their highest days, unless they are changing how they count congregate deaths.

wilmwolf80 said:

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With the number of congregate outbreaks continuing to increase, it seems odd that non-congregate deaths would have their highest days, unless they are changing how they count congregate deaths.

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Well considering that they have 64 people that they don't know if they were in a LTC facility or not, it doesn't really give you a whole lot of faith in the numbers. It shouldn't be too hard to ask where these people came from.

And I would tend to agree. Some of the reporting on congregate cases is suspect out of a number of counties.

I am curious to see where some of the tests get assigned today, may have to drill down DHHS some. Usually you can see them being added to the county totals, but the county total reports are still below what the state reported today, which is a little backwards.

Maybe just reporting to DHHS before updating individual sites. But still odd how data lags backwards sometimes.

Here are a couple of charts that shows the case increases for today, by the specimen date and the deaths by date of death. I expect the media to report NC saw it's highest number of one day deaths today, which may or may not be the case. Based on current reporting, the date of 4/16 has been the highest single day with 26 deaths on this date. Also, today's reported deaths include deaths that occurred as far back as 5/9. The deaths chart shows you the lag in reporting. Each color represents a different reporting day and the dates along the bottom indicate the actual date of death reported.

Cases Reported on 5/28, by Specimen Date (ie., the day the sample was taken)




Deaths by Actual Date of Death and Reporting Date

Just a quick question on 5/26. I have it going from 3 deaths on the May 27 report to 10 on May 28.

Now, I expect it to go higher still tomorrow with all the outstanding deaths right now, but do you have it high early, or more info already? Is the state aware of 10 more deaths that they held off this mornings dashboard in order to level data?

Wayland said:

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Just a quick question on 5/26. I have it going from 3 deaths on the May 27 report to 10 on May 28.

Now, I expect it to go higher still tomorrow with all the outstanding deaths right now, but do you have it high early, or more info already? Is the state aware of 10 more deaths that they held off this mornings dashboard in order to level data?

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Thanks for noticing the issue. It appears I had a typo for 5/26 for the data I entered today. I have made the adjustment and the updated chart is below.

Interesting. This weeks COVID surveillance for NC is out and some info on hospitalizations.

Quote:

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The number of people admitted to hospitals in the Public Health Epidemiologist network for COVID-19 went up, while the percentage of people who were admitted to the ICU went down.

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Week over week, not only did the percentage of people admitted to ICU go down, but the raw number of people admitted to the ICU for COVID in the PHE network DECREASED the week ending May 23 (when compared to the week ending May 16).

Hospitals are admitting more and more non-critical COVID patients over the last few weeks. Are the LTC hotelling patients or are they just trying to make a few bucks?

Would be nice if NC providing information about admits, recoveries, ICU usage, and hospital location. Many other states do this. The Mass daily report has a census of COVID patient in individual hospitals and their ICU status in that hospital. NC data reporting is lazy.

https://files.nc.gov/ncdhhs/documents/files/covid-19/Weekly-COVID19-Surveillance.pdf

Also, NC is the furthest behind of any state in reporting data to the CDC. Why is it acceptable for NC to be almost 2 months behind in data reporting?

"Also, NC is the furthest behind of any state in reporting data to the CDC. Why is it acceptable for NC to be almost 2 months behind in data reporting? "

That is one of the least surprising things I've read.

wilmwolf80 said:

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"Also, NC is the furthest behind of any state in reporting data to the CDC. Why is it acceptable for NC to be almost 2 months behind in data reporting? "

That is one of the least surprising things I've read.

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For the CDC National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, NC is considered 100% current for the week ending MARCH 21 (week 12) and 80% current for the week ending MARCH 28 (week 13).

Contrast that with a neighboring state, Virginia is at 99.3% complete for the week ending May 9 (week 19) and I would expect completes that this week. Someone should ask why they can't report data.

This is something I've started to think with hospitalizations. I think they're probably admitting more people that wouldn't have been admitted previously, in part because they have a positive COVID test. Say you had symptoms but not terrible and no test, you're not going to the hospital. Say now you have a test with positive result and symptoms, they're going to put you in the hospital for observation now.

statefan91 said:

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This is something I've started to think with hospitalizations. I think they're probably admitting more people that wouldn't have been admitted previously, in part because they have a positive COVID test. Say you had symptoms but not terrible and no test, you're not going to the hospital. Say now you have a test with positive result and symptoms, they're going to put you in the hospital for observation now.

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Especially since patients with COVID are a government guaranteed payday.

Rough estimates reading a crappy bar graph.

~Percentage ICU admit vs total admits in PHE network for COVID

Week of
35% 25-Apr
50% 2-May
33% 9-May
28%16-May
22% 23-May

The number of ICU admits in the PHE network has been relatively stable the 5 weeks ending 25-Apr to 22-May at somewhere between 40-50 ICU admits a week. The weeks ending 25-Apr and 22-May had about the same number of ICU admits at about 40. But Apr 25 had ~120 total admits vs May 23 having ~180 total admits.

You can't change the criteria for admitting folks to the hospital and then tweet out that it's the highest day for hospitalizations without providing the context. I'm willing to bet this is going to be used to justify some decision down the line.