NC State Bracketology: A Look At The Wolfpack On Selection Sunday

Selection Sunday is finally here! Before the official bracket is announced, we’ll take a look at a handful of bracketology sites to see where they all have NC State slated for the 2026 NCAA tournament.

Here’s a look at teams in the past who have had similar resumes to NC State, and how they did in the tournament that year. 

                   CURRENT PROJECTED SEEDS AND OPPONENTS

NC State’s average seeding among these projections is 9.5. 

According to bracketmatrix.com, out of 120 total brackets, NC State's average seed is 9.99. 

Here’s How NC State Would Match Up with Each Potential Opponent:

UCLA: 

1. Maintain Perimeter Efficiency: UCLA averages 38.3% shooting from three. 
2. Win the Rebounding Battle: Their defensive rebounding is a weakness, ranking 278^th nationally per barttorvik.
3. Pace of Play: UCLA is one of the slowest teams in the country in terms of adjusted tempo rating which ranks 314^th nationally. NC State needs to make shots and stay in transition to keep UCLA on their feet. 

Ohio State: 

1. Attack the Rim (2P% Def: 52.3%, #208): Ohio State's interior defense is a weak point. Ven-Allen Lubin and Quadir Copeland must prioritize high-percentage looks inside to exploit the Buckeyes' #208 ranking in 2-point defense.
2. Pressure Thornton (AdjO: 125.2, #13): Bruce Thornton is the engine of the nation's #13 adjusted offense. Tre Holloman needs to apply constant pressure to disrupt Thornton's rhythm and force the ball toward less efficient secondary options.
3. Capitalize on Open Looks (3P Rafe Def: 40.3%, #215): The Buckeyes allow a high volume of perimeter attempts. Paul McNeil must be ready to punish a defense that ranks #215 in 3P Rate allowed by knocking down open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Georgia: 

1. Crush the Offensive Glass (OR% Def: 34.9%, #337): Georgia is among the nation's worst at defensive rebounding. Ven-Allen Lubin must exploit their #337 rank to generate consistent second-chance points and put their frontcourt in foul trouble.
2. Win the Transition Battle (Adj. Tempo: 72, #11): The Bulldogs play at the 11th fastest pace in D-I. NC State must use Quadir Copeland to attack their retreating defense before they can set up their elite shot-blockers (Block%: 15.1, #10).
3. Disrupt High-Usage Guards (Ast. Rate: 48.4%, #279): Georgia relies on isolation and individual play rather than ball movement. Terrance Arceneaux should apply heavy ball pressure to force their guards into "hero ball" and exploit their tendency to cough up live-ball turnovers (TO%: 18.4).

Clemson:

1. Punish the Perimeter (3P Rate Def: 42.9%, #293): Clemson’s defensive scheme is designed to concede the three-pointer, ranking #293 in 3P Rate allowed. Paul McNeil must capitalize on the high volume of open looks this system naturally gives up.
2. Win the Possession Battle (OR%: 28.1, #264): Clemson is poor at extending possessions on offense (#264 in OR%). NC State must secure the defensive glass to prevent second chances and ignite transition before Clemson’s #328-ranked tempo can slow the game down.
3. Neutralize RJ Godfrey (ORth: 120.4): Godfrey is the most efficient player on the floor. Ven-Allen Lubin must deny him deep post position to force Clemson’s high-usage guards into taking lower-percentage "Far 2s" where their efficiency drops.

Kentucky: 

1. Let Quadir Copeland be Quadir Copeland: When Copeland is at his best he’s nearly unstopable. If he can get guards like Otega Oweh or Collin Chandler into early foul trouble, Copeland could take over the game. 
2. Win the Battle at PF: Darrion Williams needs to out perform F Mouhamed Dioubate. Moreno will have a size advantage over Ven-Allen Lubin, but if Williams has a big game, he can draw Moreno away from Lubin. 
3. 3-Point Defense: In Kentucky’s 13 losses, they averages 25.7% from three and 7.1 threes made/game. 

Saint Mary’s: 

1. Limit Second-Chance Points: Saint Mary’s is 4^th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. 
2. Limit Their Front-Court Scoring: NC State might have to play a bigger line-up with Murauskas at the four, and 7-ft C Andrew McKeever at the five. Those two players combine for an average 27.2ppg and 16.9rpg. 
3. Disrupt Passing Flow: The Gaels have a high assist rate at 58% which ranks 56^th nationally. Limiting PG Joshua Dent’s playmaking ability will be key. Dent averages 5.7 assists/game, and 4.2 assists/game in their five losses. 

My Take: I am not expecting NC State to make it past the second round, and that’s okay. Anything beyond that is just icing on the cake. Remember, this is just year one of the Will Wade era, and making the tournament not really having to worry about the bubble is a great starting point. Use this season as a launching point and build from it.