Shame no one in the media would ask these questions. They get too excited about all time highs.wilmwolf80 said:
You can't change the criteria for admitting folks to the hospital and then tweet out that it's the highest day for hospitalizations without providing the context. I'm willing to bet this is going to be used to justify some decision down the line.
Coronavirus
2,007,570 Views |
19855 Replies |
Last: 2 days ago by Werewolf
Through most of this they have only been admitting people with serious symptoms. If you had mild or no symptoms, even with a positive test, you were told to quarantine at home for 14 days and check in with your doctor. They are now admitting people with mild or no symptoms just for observation. I'm not saying it is a written policy, but it is happening.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
5/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331
480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths
176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate
Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.
Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.
Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)
NC Cases*
24,628
NC Deaths**
794
Currently Hospitalized
702 < 92% reporting, yesterday was 72% reporting. Increase partly lagged data
Completed Tests
364,156
497 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
235 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
559 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)
142 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-1)
WRAL is at 819 and NandO is at 831 deaths
488 positive cases over 11825 new tests. 4.1% positive rate
Hospitalization increase likely happened before the weekend and is just being reported now. We still need more insight here into admits/discharges and ICU. Hotelling? Localized outbreaks? Definitely a number to watch and since we have all these contact tracers now, let's get us some context!
NC Cases*
25,412
NC Deaths**
827
Currently Hospitalized
708
Completed Tests
375,192
515 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
64 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
248 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
579 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
146 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 858 (+2) and NandO is at 856 deaths
784 positive cases over 11036 new tests. 7.1% positive rate
By Date of Death, of the deaths added today 2 are from prior to 5/7 (or unaccounted for since then), 1 on 5/9, 1 on 5/10, 1 on 5/14. Each of the last 7 days had at least 2 deaths from today's count.
The last 2 days were the highest 2 days of non-congregate deaths.
Despite the high total of the last two days, the overall death trend is still stable.
NC Cases*
26,488
NC Deaths**
859
Currently Hospitalized
680
Completed Tests
391,231
537 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
69 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
253 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
606 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
149 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 888 (+2) and NandO is at 895 deaths
1076 positive cases over 16039 new tests. 6.7% positive rate
Just like last week, late week testing dump. Unknown and congregate high. Going to take some time to chart date of death. Government should be throwing a lot more resources at congregate facilities because they keep going up up up.
Watching the interviews on WRAL's website, the doctors seem to be confident they are in a good place to handle whatever increase of patients they are getting... I think the UNC system said they had 70ish Covid patients in the entire system, and WakeMed said it was 5% of the patients they were treating hospital wide... Both are ramping up elective surgeries as well... So it sounds like the only ones alarmed are the media who kept trying to pry a "dooms day" scenario from the medical professionals.
These people suck at keeping charts updated. I show more deaths added to the Date of Death chart than added to the total today. Either way 3 of the deaths added were from over two weeks ago. The rest of the deaths are spread over the last 10 days with the majority coming from Tuesday and Wednesday.
JasonNCSU said:
Watching the interviews on WRAL's website, the doctors seem to be confident they are in a good place to handle whatever increase of patients they are getting... I think the UNC system said they had 70ish Covid patients in the entire system, and WakeMed said it was 5% of the patients they were treating hospital wide... Both are ramping up elective surgeries as well... So it sounds like the only ones alarmed are the media who kept trying to pry a "dooms day" scenario from the medical professionals.
I am glad they are being up front about their status. Obviously want to monitor the situation, but the hospitals will be fine.
We need to tracers to monitor the outbreaks as the paths of least resistance get burned and prevent little flare ups from becoming massive fires. And ride this out.
Because we didn't cap out on the front end, our long plateau will wobble a little up and down... it won't be a pretty curve. But it will get there. Maybe this mini peak will give us something to work down from, but until we clear those congregate settings, the toll is going to continue to roll in from there.
Continue to take care and use caution to not spread COVID-19. If you are sick, stay home.
But as a nation, we are on the tail end. Per @EthicalSkeptic we now have fewer people dying weekly nationally than the average of the last 5 years. I thought the the trajectory was about the same watching ILINET and COVIDVIEW but now we enter the long slow burn.
This guy may be out there, but follow his timeline from months ago until now. He has called it close.
But as a nation, we are on the tail end. Per @EthicalSkeptic we now have fewer people dying weekly nationally than the average of the last 5 years. I thought the the trajectory was about the same watching ILINET and COVIDVIEW but now we enter the long slow burn.
This guy may be out there, but follow his timeline from months ago until now. He has called it close.
Huge jump in deaths out of NandO. Up to 919 going into the night. DHHS is now like 60 behind. Are all these congregate facilities outbreaks finally hitting their fatalities. Not going to have 150 outbreaks without consequences.
We are going to get a new peak in deaths.
Where will the deaths come from. Friday Congregate data? Some outliers going into the weekend for this jump
Guilford +9 deaths (65 total)
Robeson +8 deaths (21 total)
Rowan +10 deaths (37 total) <- Rowan was also +10 in cases. Wonder if this was backlog?
Cumberland +5 deaths (23 total)
Union +3 deaths (20 total)
Harnett +3 deaths (27 total)
I guess we will see where they all shake out. I think it is somewhere between a Friday data dump and a bad day. These jumps aren't evenly distributed, but rather heavily clustered. But I doubt all those counties had those deaths today.
Looking at today's congregate report. Rowan has at least 33 congregate deaths, so that explains most of their increase.
We are going to get a new peak in deaths.
Where will the deaths come from. Friday Congregate data? Some outliers going into the weekend for this jump
Guilford +9 deaths (65 total)
Robeson +8 deaths (21 total)
Rowan +10 deaths (37 total) <- Rowan was also +10 in cases. Wonder if this was backlog?
Cumberland +5 deaths (23 total)
Union +3 deaths (20 total)
Harnett +3 deaths (27 total)
I guess we will see where they all shake out. I think it is somewhere between a Friday data dump and a bad day. These jumps aren't evenly distributed, but rather heavily clustered. But I doubt all those counties had those deaths today.
Looking at today's congregate report. Rowan has at least 33 congregate deaths, so that explains most of their increase.
5/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331
480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths
176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate
Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.
Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.
Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)
NC Cases*
24,628
NC Deaths**
794
Currently Hospitalized
702 < 92% reporting, yesterday was 72% reporting. Increase partly lagged data
Completed Tests
364,156
497 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
235 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
559 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)
142 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-1)
WRAL is at 819 and NandO is at 831 deaths
488 positive cases over 11825 new tests. 4.1% positive rate
Hospitalization increase likely happened before the weekend and is just being reported now. We still need more insight here into admits/discharges and ICU. Hotelling? Localized outbreaks? Definitely a number to watch and since we have all these contact tracers now, let's get us some context!
NC Cases*
25,412
NC Deaths**
827
Currently Hospitalized
708
Completed Tests
375,192
515 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
64 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
248 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
579 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
146 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 858 (+2) and NandO is at 856 deaths
784 positive cases over 11036 new tests. 7.1% positive rate
By Date of Death, of the deaths added today 2 are from prior to 5/7 (or unaccounted for since then), 1 on 5/9, 1 on 5/10, 1 on 5/14. Each of the last 7 days had at least 2 deaths from today's count.
The last 2 days were the highest 2 days of non-congregate deaths.
Despite the high total of the last two days, the overall death trend is still stable.
NC Cases*
26,488
NC Deaths**
859
Currently Hospitalized
680
Completed Tests
391,231
537 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
69 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
253 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
606 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
149 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 888 (+2) and NandO is at 895 deaths
1076 positive cases over 16039 new tests. 6.7% positive rate
Just like last week, late week testing dump. Unknown and congregate high. Going to take some time to chart date of death. Government should be throwing a lot more resources at congregate facilities because they keep going up up up.
NC Cases*
27,673
NC Deaths**
877
Currently Hospitalized
638
Completed Tests
404,157
554 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
68 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
264 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
613 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
158 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
WRAL is at 912 (+2) and NandO is at 929 deaths
1185 positive cases over 12926 new tests. 9.1% positive rate
I can't see how DHHS can trail 40 behind the media in deaths unless there is some kind of probable deaths that are being added at the county level and not state? Or we are missing a whole ton of congregate deaths that need to be added to the total Lag is getting worse and worse.
Hospitalizations way down. Wonder if someone got their hand caught in the cookie jar.
Really, at least NINE additional congregate outbreaks??? We are two and a half months into this, where is the accountability?
wilmwolf80 said:
Through most of this they have only been admitting people with serious symptoms. If you had mild or no symptoms, even with a positive test, you were told to quarantine at home for 14 days and check in with your doctor. They are now admitting people with mild or no symptoms just for observation. I'm not saying it is a written policy, but it is happening.
Hmm, I'm not so sure about this. How do you know this exactly?
Nm
Mormad said:wilmwolf80 said:
Through most of this they have only been admitting people with serious symptoms. If you had mild or no symptoms, even with a positive test, you were told to quarantine at home for 14 days and check in with your doctor. They are now admitting people with mild or no symptoms just for observation. I'm not saying it is a written policy, but it is happening.
Hmm, I'm not so sure about this. How do you know this exactly?
Beyond anecdotally?
Look at the weekly NC CLI surveillance report and deduce.
Theoretically, the same percentage of infected people are going to require critical care. The ratio of critical, to non-critical, to non-hospitalized care should be roughly the same regardless of number of cases, if your conditions for treatment remain the same.
In the NC PHE network over the last 5 weeks, they have admitted roughly the same number of ICU COVID patients a week (~40-50) but they have doubled the amount of weekly non-ICU COVID admits in that same time.
Again, I am not faulting them for doing so. They need the money, people need care. Win-win. But be transparent about what is going on when policies are being made based on the 'numbers'. The hospitals know they are not overwhelmed, are not concerned about the numbers when asked. Because they have the capacity and are housing a couple more patients to earn a few bucks.
Originally they were telling people to stay home unless they were so sick they couldn't breathe. Maybe they're admitting people for care now before they get critical?
Again, I am not saying there is anything wrong with admitting more people for care. The number of cases identified by testing is only a fraction of total cases anyways.
What I am saying is don't be disingenuous with the numbers. Be clear and say "Hey, hospital numbers are way up right now, but we are admitting a lot more non-critical cases in order to make sure we can give the proper care. We have plenty of capacity and our capacity has never been tested"
Don't say: "Wow, hospitalizations are way up. We are not sure what is going on. We are hitting record numbers. <Any justification to fit whatever narrative policy decision is on given day.>"
I get why we are slow to open, there are a lot of people afraid. But be honest about what your are doing. Don't feign ignorance to having any context to the data that you provide. Not everyone has the time or inclination to look beyond the raw numbers. But if you do, the story the media and government are making doesn't align to what the reality is or will be.
3 months ago it was obvious the major issue was going to be congregate facilities and here TODAY we added NINE outbreaks in NC. That is and was always the real crisis.
All I ask now, is don't lie to me.
What I am saying is don't be disingenuous with the numbers. Be clear and say "Hey, hospital numbers are way up right now, but we are admitting a lot more non-critical cases in order to make sure we can give the proper care. We have plenty of capacity and our capacity has never been tested"
Don't say: "Wow, hospitalizations are way up. We are not sure what is going on. We are hitting record numbers. <Any justification to fit whatever narrative policy decision is on given day.>"
I get why we are slow to open, there are a lot of people afraid. But be honest about what your are doing. Don't feign ignorance to having any context to the data that you provide. Not everyone has the time or inclination to look beyond the raw numbers. But if you do, the story the media and government are making doesn't align to what the reality is or will be.
3 months ago it was obvious the major issue was going to be congregate facilities and here TODAY we added NINE outbreaks in NC. That is and was always the real crisis.
All I ask now, is don't lie to me.
Wayland said:Mormad said:wilmwolf80 said:
Through most of this they have only been admitting people with serious symptoms. If you had mild or no symptoms, even with a positive test, you were told to quarantine at home for 14 days and check in with your doctor. They are now admitting people with mild or no symptoms just for observation. I'm not saying it is a written policy, but it is happening.
Hmm, I'm not so sure about this. How do you know this exactly?
Beyond anecdotally?
Look at the weekly NC CLI surveillance report and deduce.
Theoretically, the same percentage of infected people are going to require critical care. The ratio of critical, to non-critical, to non-hospitalized care should be roughly the same regardless of number of cases, if your conditions for treatment remain the same.
In the NC PHE network over the last 5 weeks, they have admitted roughly the same number of ICU COVID patients a week (~40-50) but they have doubled the amount of weekly non-ICU COVID admits in that same time.
Again, I am not faulting them for doing so. They need the money, people need care. Win-win. But be transparent about what is going on when policies are being made based on the 'numbers'. The hospitals know they are not overwhelmed, are not concerned about the numbers when asked. Because they have the capacity and are housing a couple more patients to earn a few bucks.
Question for clarification purposes only. Is the 40-50 ICU number theoretical or is that information that the NC PHE network reported? Not questioning you, just for my own info because I've been trying not to follow this as much. Thanks in advance.
It is the information in the NC PHE network reported as part of the weekly NC COVID-19 surveillance.packgrad said:Wayland said:Mormad said:wilmwolf80 said:
Through most of this they have only been admitting people with serious symptoms. If you had mild or no symptoms, even with a positive test, you were told to quarantine at home for 14 days and check in with your doctor. They are now admitting people with mild or no symptoms just for observation. I'm not saying it is a written policy, but it is happening.
Hmm, I'm not so sure about this. How do you know this exactly?
Beyond anecdotally?
Look at the weekly NC CLI surveillance report and deduce.
Theoretically, the same percentage of infected people are going to require critical care. The ratio of critical, to non-critical, to non-hospitalized care should be roughly the same regardless of number of cases, if your conditions for treatment remain the same.
In the NC PHE network over the last 5 weeks, they have admitted roughly the same number of ICU COVID patients a week (~40-50) but they have doubled the amount of weekly non-ICU COVID admits in that same time.
Again, I am not faulting them for doing so. They need the money, people need care. Win-win. But be transparent about what is going on when policies are being made based on the 'numbers'. The hospitals know they are not overwhelmed, are not concerned about the numbers when asked. Because they have the capacity and are housing a couple more patients to earn a few bucks.
Question for clarification purposes only. Is the 40-50 ICU number theoretical or is that information that the NC PHE network reported? Not questioning you, just for my own info because I've been trying not to follow this as much. Thanks in advance.
The graph isn't the easiest to read off of the PDF, and that link will update weekly on with the current weeks surveillance report.
That's an interesting take, but I think it's wrong. From what I see here, and talking to my buds across the state, nobody wants these people in the hospital. They aren't exactly money makers, and the more that are admitted, the further the hospitals are from doing what makes them money. And they submit their staff to unnecessary risks. It's a lose-lose actually. I just don't see unnecessary admissions happening. The docs admitting are typically salaried, and the hospitals want to make money and reduce exposure. I'd look deeper for an explanation for the numbers, but unnecessary admissions is a losing game IMHO.
Mormad said:
That's an interesting take, but I think it's wrong. From what I see here, and talking to my buds across the state, nobody wants these people in the hospital. They aren't exactly money makers, and the more that are admitted, the further the hospitals are from doing what makes them money. And they submit their staff to unnecessary risks. It's a lose-lose actually. I just don't see unnecessary admissions happening. The docs admitting are typically salaried, and the hospitals want to make money and reduce exposure. I'd look deeper for an explanation for the numbers, but unnecessary admissions is a losing game IMHO.
Fair enough, but then it is up to DHHS to provide context to their numbers other than "I don't know." It should be their job to know, track, and ask questions.
I respect that you have some inside insight but unless those in charge care to explain, I am left to come to my own (wrong?) conclusions.
We should never have a day where 100% of the hospitals don't report their statistics. Either this is a pandemic and all hands are on deck or it isn't. And if the hospitals and DHHS don't care to spend a few extra minutes gathering, analyzing, and explaining stats, then stop trying to sell me a crisis.
Not saying it isn't a crap situation that there is a new virus and it is decimating a failing LTC structure. And we should do our absolute best to protect the most vulnerable. But if 10 weeks in we pick up 9 new congregate outbreaks in one day, what are we even doing here anymore.
The state has half-assed their way through this but still want us to buy what they are selling.
Get up there, EXPLAIN the numbers you provide, and if you can't then hit the pavement and start asking A LOT of questions. Every hospital that fails to provide daily should be listed.
And just like that, the media is back to not talking about covid19.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
wilmwolf80 said:
And just like that, the media is back to not talking about covid19.
Yep. Guess rioting and looting was the cure
It's as if it never existed on GMA. Strange.
Nope. You've been following the numbers in great detail, you know exactly what they mean... all other major indicators - except hospitalizations - are steadily trending downward - and have been for quite a while now (despite a daily blip here and there).Wayland said:Mormad said:
That's an interesting take, but I think it's wrong. From what I see here, and talking to my buds across the state, nobody wants these people in the hospital. They aren't exactly money makers, and the more that are admitted, the further the hospitals are from doing what makes them money. And they submit their staff to unnecessary risks. It's a lose-lose actually. I just don't see unnecessary admissions happening. The docs admitting are typically salaried, and the hospitals want to make money and reduce exposure. I'd look deeper for an explanation for the numbers, but unnecessary admissions is a losing game IMHO.
Fair enough, but then it is up to DHHS to provide context to their numbers other than "I don't know." It should be their job to know, track, and ask questions.
I respect that you have some inside insight but unless those in charge care to explain, I am left to come to my own (wrong?) conclusions.
We should never have a day where 100% of the hospitals don't report their statistics. Either this is a pandemic and all hands are on deck or it isn't. And if the hospitals and DHHS don't care to spend a few extra minutes gathering, analyzing, and explaining stats, then stop trying to sell me a crisis.
Not saying it isn't a crap situation that there is a new virus and it is decimating a failing LTC structure. And we should do our absolute best to protect the most vulnerable. But if 10 weeks in we pick up 9 new congregate outbreaks in one day, what are we even doing here anymore.
The state has half-assed their way through this but still want us to buy what they are selling.
Get up there, EXPLAIN the numbers you provide, and if you can't then hit the pavement and start asking A LOT of questions. Every hospital that fails to provide daily should be listed.
Hospitals are definitely admitting a different "level of symptom" positive than they were previously.
And yes - when you can't make money doing all the various elective surgeries that you would normally like, at the levels that you would like - you must find other ways to make "some" money temporarily using those same "assets". Same as any other business.
Yeah, ok. I'll ask around this week but I still think you're wrong. I appreciate you guys and the effort you make, and in many instances you may be right, but I think you have to see the irony in anger over what you perceive as lies or purposed misinformation or lack of information and then statements like "it's happening," "definitely," and "know."
I really don't think "it's happening," at least not here or Charlotte or Raleigh, but even I'm not sure. I just don't see it, and I don't see the justification for it. Admitting those patients is more risk than reward for hospitals, it delays money making activity further for them, the docs are salaried so they don't get anything but risk for themselves and their families from it, and unless you're well versed in a particular hospital's financials and whether these inappropriate admissions would even receive authorized payments from insurance companies, then you really are simply guessing about financial incentive. If the decisions were being made on a financial basis, they'd open things up to electives. And since we see hospitals opening up at different times, who do you think is making the decision about when they can make some money? Do you really think hospitals are holding back info and losing money hand over fist and admitting those who don't need it and exposing their vital staff just to make it seem like some crisis so the masses can remain scared and they can just keep losing money? No, these administrators want to make money, and right now they're not, and any perceived uptick in covid simply prolongs their suffering. They don't make money on covid, and insurance won't pay unjustified claims. They want the heart center and OR open, and admitting covid pts who don't need it isn't getting them there.
I really don't think "it's happening," at least not here or Charlotte or Raleigh, but even I'm not sure. I just don't see it, and I don't see the justification for it. Admitting those patients is more risk than reward for hospitals, it delays money making activity further for them, the docs are salaried so they don't get anything but risk for themselves and their families from it, and unless you're well versed in a particular hospital's financials and whether these inappropriate admissions would even receive authorized payments from insurance companies, then you really are simply guessing about financial incentive. If the decisions were being made on a financial basis, they'd open things up to electives. And since we see hospitals opening up at different times, who do you think is making the decision about when they can make some money? Do you really think hospitals are holding back info and losing money hand over fist and admitting those who don't need it and exposing their vital staff just to make it seem like some crisis so the masses can remain scared and they can just keep losing money? No, these administrators want to make money, and right now they're not, and any perceived uptick in covid simply prolongs their suffering. They don't make money on covid, and insurance won't pay unjustified claims. They want the heart center and OR open, and admitting covid pts who don't need it isn't getting them there.
I can say with one hundred percent certainty that at least one patient in Columbus county was admitted to the hospital with no major symptoms "for observation". His wife is a nurse and when he had cold like symptoms, she encouraged him to be tested just because he was around his elderly father. He was admitted after the positive test, and according to her he has been in the hospital for several days without having any serious symptoms.. Is there more to the story that I don't know that may explain his hospitalization? Maybe. It is at best anecdotal, but the greater numbers do seem to show an uptick in hospitalization rate, which doesn't particularly make sense with the other information we have available to us. I agree that admitting more people doesn't necessarily make sense, but there's a whole lot that has gone on here that doesn't make a lot of sense.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
I hear you, big man, but I suspect that's the exception and not the norm. Like I said, I'll ask around, but I also suspect if that were happening often I'd know about it. We have like 35 neurosurgeons in my practice between Greensboro and Charlotte biting at the bit to open things up and getting daily updates from CMC, presby, rock Hill, balentine, northeast, and the cone system with several docs tied into the administrations, and if this were the norm we'd be throwing tantrums like 10 yr olds. It's what we're best at, believe me. I'm no different from you guys...I WANT and NEED things to open up in an intelligent, cautious, and science-based manner.
I am not privy to inside knowledge of NC hospitals. I do have a connection with someone with access to the board and financials of UPMC and know how much they were losing through all of this. I haven't touched base on this with him in a few weeks, but the frustration of the lack of both corona patients AND electives were driving them nuts. I know UPMC needed money badly, I can only assume the same is true of NC hospitals.
I am not even saying it is wrong or inappropriate. They have COVID, you have capacity. I am saying it is a change in behavior. Be up front with that and not sell a false spike.
I am not even saying it is a grand conspiracy. But if every hospital is adding just a couple patients here and there it adds up. And all of a sudden we have an accidental spike in hospitalizations. Which then allows Roy/DHHS to drive a policy narrative.
So what is an alternative explanation to the below as to why mild hospitalizations of COVID doubled while ICU admits remained stable?
There are over 100 hospitals in NC. That have been running well below capacity for over 2 months. What if, each of them just added 1 or 2 mild cases a day. Nothing big, nothing sinister, just nothing going on in the hospital. Electives aren't back in force. There has always been PLENTY of capacity. All of a sudden you have accidentally caused a spike of 100-300 cases. It may not have been a grand conspiracy. But if you don't provide context and clarity to numbers, we can't know what them mean.
That is why the data should be presented clearly and DHHS should look at their own numbers and ask.... "Hey why are ICU admits stable but we are doubling the amount of non-critical patients?" And then tell us the answer.
I am not even saying it is wrong or inappropriate. They have COVID, you have capacity. I am saying it is a change in behavior. Be up front with that and not sell a false spike.
I am not even saying it is a grand conspiracy. But if every hospital is adding just a couple patients here and there it adds up. And all of a sudden we have an accidental spike in hospitalizations. Which then allows Roy/DHHS to drive a policy narrative.
So what is an alternative explanation to the below as to why mild hospitalizations of COVID doubled while ICU admits remained stable?
There are over 100 hospitals in NC. That have been running well below capacity for over 2 months. What if, each of them just added 1 or 2 mild cases a day. Nothing big, nothing sinister, just nothing going on in the hospital. Electives aren't back in force. There has always been PLENTY of capacity. All of a sudden you have accidentally caused a spike of 100-300 cases. It may not have been a grand conspiracy. But if you don't provide context and clarity to numbers, we can't know what them mean.
That is why the data should be presented clearly and DHHS should look at their own numbers and ask.... "Hey why are ICU admits stable but we are doubling the amount of non-critical patients?" And then tell us the answer.
The easy answer is they simply may not know the answer. If your scenario is correct, something so small and spread between hospitals that isn't sinister may be hard to detect and may take more time. I think you guys understand that so much of this is unknown, unchartered territory that EVERYBODY is trying to feel their way through. There are very few black and white answers.
I still can't get my head around the balance and interaction between hospital admin wanting to make some money and admitting pts that are potential money losers and exposing staff and using PPE and the actual admitting doctor who has absolutely no incentive to admit. Do you really feel the admin sits down with admitting docs (of which there are 100s) and says, "hey, nothing sinister, but we're hurting so let's admit just 2 or 3 pts that really don't need it. Oh, and doctor the chart to make it seem legit so we actually get paid. Wink wink." Do you think they are contacted by the doc or stand over their shoulder and urge them to admit? Do you think they are part of any of the process of a single admission? I have never once in my 20 year career had an administrator tell me who to admit and who not to, call me during an admission, and nor have I called them. Now insurance companies are a different animal, but they certainly aren't paying for admissions when they don't have to. Hell, they're driving the ship much more often than docs and admin.
I still can't get my head around the balance and interaction between hospital admin wanting to make some money and admitting pts that are potential money losers and exposing staff and using PPE and the actual admitting doctor who has absolutely no incentive to admit. Do you really feel the admin sits down with admitting docs (of which there are 100s) and says, "hey, nothing sinister, but we're hurting so let's admit just 2 or 3 pts that really don't need it. Oh, and doctor the chart to make it seem legit so we actually get paid. Wink wink." Do you think they are contacted by the doc or stand over their shoulder and urge them to admit? Do you think they are part of any of the process of a single admission? I have never once in my 20 year career had an administrator tell me who to admit and who not to, call me during an admission, and nor have I called them. Now insurance companies are a different animal, but they certainly aren't paying for admissions when they don't have to. Hell, they're driving the ship much more often than docs and admin.
5/31/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
NC Cases*
20,122
NC Deaths**
702
Currently Hospitalized
554
Completed Tests
277,603
446 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
200 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
502 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
135 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 718 (+2) and NandO is at 726
422 positive cases over 12,595 new tests. 3.6% positive rate. (The change to the total day over day is is 12,595 but State lists 10,122 tests today. In fact the whole number of tests reported each day by day is now completely different on their site)
Not sure there is much more reason for this anymore with the improvements in the dashboard. For me it is now just an exercise I do to digest the daily data.
NC Cases*
20,910 (updated at 1:50 to remove 50 cases and post 20,860)
NC Deaths**
716
Currently Hospitalized
578
Completed Tests
290,645
455 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
205 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
511 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
140 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 735 (+2) and NandO is at 748
788 positive cases over 13,042 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
DHHS is still doing all kinds of playing with their test data so I will just show the delta day over day, and let them throw it against a wall and see where in the calendar it falls.
Congregate facilities continue to spike upwards that should be everyone's concern, not playgrounds.
Regarding death lag today. Of the deaths reported today 2 occurred on May 12. The remaining 12 were spread across the last 5 days.
NC Cases*
21,618
NC Deaths**
728
Currently Hospitalized
568
Completed Tests
303,224
459 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
211 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
517 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 741 (+2) and NandO is at 761
758 positive cases over 12579 new tests. 6.0% positive rate
1 death reported today is from 5/15, 1 from 5/16. The remainder are from the last 3 days.
Ridiculous how many congregate facilities continue to outbreak. DHHS is lagging far behind media this week, I guess verification takes time. Over 30 deaths behind. Some of the biggest lag to date.
I really want a deeper look into what the hospitalizations mean and if hospitals are hotelling LTC patients and what the ICU breakdown is.
NC Cases*
22,725
NC Deaths**
737
Currently Hospitalized
589
Completed Tests
329,582
464 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
58 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
215 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
522 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 752 (+2) and NandO is at 775
1107 positive cases over 26,358 new tests. 4.2% positive rate
DHHS only shows 8,077 of the tests are from today. So as I predicted before the holiday weekend, a MASSIVE data dump and the state has done a crap job reconciling these tests. For some reason, the state is still unable to track deaths which means there is a massive lag of congregate deaths that aren't accounted for in DHHS totals.
Media is going to **** themselves over the 1107 number even though it makes the positive rate drop.
The DHHS site has a rolling average for positive new cases that is 1-2% higher than the 7 day rolling average of the positive new cases calculated each day (going back to the beginning of May).
Which means they aren't presenting data correctly.
Maybe Davie can help out with the case count, but I can't figure out how some of these tests couldn't be from April even with the high recent case count. There is just too many extra tests there.
NC Cases*
23,222
NC Deaths**
744
Currently Hospitalized
587
Completed Tests
336,656
468 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
59 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
217 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
527 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 768 (+2) and NandO is at 784 deaths
497 positive cases over 7074 new tests. 7.0% positive rate
NC Cases*
23,964
NC Deaths**
754
Currently Hospitalized
627
Completed Tests
344,960
475 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
61 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
218 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
536 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 776 (+2) and NandO is at 790 deaths
742 positive cases over 8034 new tests. 9.2% positive rate
Highest hospitalization rate. DHHS really needs to start breaking down that number further into admits vs released. ICU vs non ICU. And length of stay (are there LTC hotel patients).
NC Cases*
24,140
NC Deaths**
766
Currently Hospitalized
621
Completed Tests
352,331
480 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
224 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
542 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
143 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
WRAL is at 783 (+2) and NandO is at 797 deaths
176 positive cases over 7371 new tests. 2.3% positive rate
Strange thing with NC case totals still they are missing almost 4000 tests in their COMPLETED TESTS graph, to add to the over 16,000 missing from last week.
Deaths still lagging 30 behind media numbers.
Of new new DHHS deaths reported today. 1 was from 5/11, 1 was from 5/14, 3 from 5/19, the rest within the last week. Although, unless they did not update their graph for recent days, 3 of the reported deaths today occurred BEFORE 5/7. I have only been charting daily death changes since 5/7. And I can't account for what day 3 of the day over day death changes are on. (Maybe should have been today and not added?)
NC Cases*
24,628
NC Deaths**
794
Currently Hospitalized
702 < 92% reporting, yesterday was 72% reporting. Increase partly lagged data
Completed Tests
364,156
497 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
62 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
235 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
559 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+17)
142 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-1)
WRAL is at 819 and NandO is at 831 deaths
488 positive cases over 11825 new tests. 4.1% positive rate
Hospitalization increase likely happened before the weekend and is just being reported now. We still need more insight here into admits/discharges and ICU. Hotelling? Localized outbreaks? Definitely a number to watch and since we have all these contact tracers now, let's get us some context!
NC Cases*
25,412
NC Deaths**
827
Currently Hospitalized
708
Completed Tests
375,192
515 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
64 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+33 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
248 Deaths assumed General Population (+13)
579 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
146 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)
WRAL is at 858 (+2) and NandO is at 856 deaths
784 positive cases over 11036 new tests. 7.1% positive rate
By Date of Death, of the deaths added today 2 are from prior to 5/7 (or unaccounted for since then), 1 on 5/9, 1 on 5/10, 1 on 5/14. Each of the last 7 days had at least 2 deaths from today's count.
The last 2 days were the highest 2 days of non-congregate deaths.
Despite the high total of the last two days, the overall death trend is still stable.
NC Cases*
26,488
NC Deaths**
859
Currently Hospitalized
680
Completed Tests
391,231
537 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
69 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+32 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
253 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
606 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
149 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 888 (+2) and NandO is at 895 deaths
1076 positive cases over 16039 new tests. 6.7% positive rate
Just like last week, late week testing dump. Unknown and congregate high. Going to take some time to chart date of death. Government should be throwing a lot more resources at congregate facilities because they keep going up up up.
NC Cases*
27,673
NC Deaths**
877
Currently Hospitalized
638
Completed Tests
404,157
545 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
68 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
264 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
613 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
158 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+9)
WRAL is at 912 (+2) and NandO is at 929 deaths
1185 positive cases over 12926 new tests. 9.1% positive rate
I can't see how DHHS can trail 40 behind the media in deaths unless there is some kind of probable deaths that are being added at the county level and not state? Or we are missing a whole ton of congregate deaths that need to be added to the total Lag is getting worse and worse.
Hospitalizations way down. Wonder if someone got their hand caught in the cookie jar.
Really, at least NINE additional congregate outbreaks??? We are two and a half months into this, where is the accountability?
NC Cases*
28,589
NC Deaths**
886
Currently Hospitalized
649
Completed Tests
416,289
552 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
71 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
263 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
623 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
160 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 913 (+2) and NandO is at 929 deaths
916 positive cases over 12132 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
In an amazing feat of record keeping and/or magic, deaths in the general public actually DECREASED by 1 today.
Observation report from the past several days.....took the family to Hilton Head from TH - SU, staying in a condo near Harbour Town. Weather was, surprisingly, near perfect, with almost no rain, so people who were there, were able to be out and about
* Least amount of traffic ever getting there, or getting around, at this time of year. Small crowds at normally high traffic areas like the Harbour Town marina.
* Some restaurants and businesses were still closed, but most were open and following strict access-restrictions (ie, only 4 people in store at a time) or appointment-based shopping.
* We only did take out, and while some places still only allowed take out, a number of restaurants had sit-down, just with more space between tables. Saw a number of places where restaurants had figured out how to use outdoor space that would not normally have been used....created more seats for them.
* Several of the restaurants from which we ordered had some safety procedures I had not yet seen in the Charlotte area --- like clean pens to sign, with a bucket to place "dirty" pens. Sanitizer dispensers everywhere.
* In Harris Teeter, everyone had on masks (nearly everyone).
* In outdoor areas -- when riding bikes/walking, at the beach, walking around Harbour Town or South Beach areas....almost no one had on masks.
* We went to the beach at the Sea Pines Beach Club access...and on TH afternoon, it was more crowded than I'd ever seen it (I think the weather had sucked up until then, and everyone went to beach when sun came out). Friday and Saturday were less crowded. But people were spread out -- HHI is nothing like the mass of hi-rises like you see at Myrtle, so people can actually get away from each other, even when there are larger crowds there.
* Business owners I spoke to were thankful to be able to reopen, restrictions or no.
In total.....I felt safe. The only time I felt crowded was in line at the convenience store on the way home when some guy insisted on standing right behind me.....
* Least amount of traffic ever getting there, or getting around, at this time of year. Small crowds at normally high traffic areas like the Harbour Town marina.
* Some restaurants and businesses were still closed, but most were open and following strict access-restrictions (ie, only 4 people in store at a time) or appointment-based shopping.
* We only did take out, and while some places still only allowed take out, a number of restaurants had sit-down, just with more space between tables. Saw a number of places where restaurants had figured out how to use outdoor space that would not normally have been used....created more seats for them.
* Several of the restaurants from which we ordered had some safety procedures I had not yet seen in the Charlotte area --- like clean pens to sign, with a bucket to place "dirty" pens. Sanitizer dispensers everywhere.
* In Harris Teeter, everyone had on masks (nearly everyone).
* In outdoor areas -- when riding bikes/walking, at the beach, walking around Harbour Town or South Beach areas....almost no one had on masks.
* We went to the beach at the Sea Pines Beach Club access...and on TH afternoon, it was more crowded than I'd ever seen it (I think the weather had sucked up until then, and everyone went to beach when sun came out). Friday and Saturday were less crowded. But people were spread out -- HHI is nothing like the mass of hi-rises like you see at Myrtle, so people can actually get away from each other, even when there are larger crowds there.
* Business owners I spoke to were thankful to be able to reopen, restrictions or no.
In total.....I felt safe. The only time I felt crowded was in line at the convenience store on the way home when some guy insisted on standing right behind me.....
"In an amazing feat of record keeping and/or magic, deaths in the general public actually DECREASED by 1 today. "
A resurrection perhaps?
A resurrection perhaps?
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
6/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908
559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)
162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths
674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.
3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.
NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908
559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)
162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths
674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.
3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.
Not that media would come out and give high cases numbers (or even an uptick in percent positive) context.
But DHHS Secretary Cohen finally said out loud why NC has some of the upticks it has. They are essentially doing a high number of hot spot testing of congregate facilities, food processing plants, etc. The exact kind of places you would expect to find high concentrations of cases if present.
This is not a bad thing, but it doesn't reflect what the 'true' population numbers would look like and would skew positive rates higher. Remember that testing is only capturing a fraction of the real number of infections.
This is why raw numbers should always be provided context. Don't let the media scare you because they are unable to discern context.
But DHHS Secretary Cohen finally said out loud why NC has some of the upticks it has. They are essentially doing a high number of hot spot testing of congregate facilities, food processing plants, etc. The exact kind of places you would expect to find high concentrations of cases if present.
This is not a bad thing, but it doesn't reflect what the 'true' population numbers would look like and would skew positive rates higher. Remember that testing is only capturing a fraction of the real number of infections.
This is why raw numbers should always be provided context. Don't let the media scare you because they are unable to discern context.
Any links to what she said in a news article? I couldn't find anything.
I wonder what we'll see as a result of the protests and gatherings in terms of the virus spreading
I wonder what we'll see as a result of the protests and gatherings in terms of the virus spreading
It will be interesting to watch. I was already going to see if memorial day celebrations had any impact like the Ozark party in Missouri. Now we have all this street rioting. If in 2 weeks we aren't seeing major spikes then I think that will reveal quite a bit about where this virus is in potency. I saw an italian doctor is now seeing it getting weaker in Italy. Don't have the link.statefan91 said:
Any links to what she said in a news article? I couldn't find anything.
I wonder what we'll see as a result of the protests and gatherings in terms of the virus spreading
Featured Stories
See All
COMMIT ALERT: All-MAC Guard Marcus Hill Picks NC State
by James Henderson
Cam Riley Decommits From NC State
by James Henderson
IPS ZOOM CALL ALERT: Zoom Call Announcement at 6PM!
by James Henderson
25:09
10h ago
600
WATCH: Wolfpack Launches Inaugural Victory Over Cancer Game
by Daniel Wilson
IPS TAKE: Mike James Transfer Decision
by James Henderson