Coronavirus

2,011,888 Views | 19855 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Werewolf
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

Any links to what she said in a news article? I couldn't find anything.

I wonder what we'll see as a result of the protests and gatherings in terms of the virus spreading
https://www.unctv.org/coronavirus/

At about 30 minutes in (Latest Emergency Briefing) while not completely answering the Forsyth question. You can't acknowledge that you are 'hot spot chasing' and then pretend stats are representative of the entire population. It comes again back to the apples vs oranges in that you have changed your data collection parameters.

Had an interaction last night with one of the guys doing hardcore analysis of this and he picked up NC's hot spot chasing weeks ago.

And again, not saying it isn't good to try and chase the hot spots and put out any fires, but NC has done a horrible job providing context to data when asked directly. The only response is ever 'Look at the dashboard'. Are they hiding something or do they just not understand context?
Wayland
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Wayland said:

6/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908

559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths

674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.

3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.
6/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
29,889
NC Deaths**
921
Currently Hospitalized
716
Completed Tests
434,921

574 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
76 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

271 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
650 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 933 (+2) and NandO is at 961 deaths

626 positive cases over 13,013 new tests. 4.8% positive rate.

DHHS is now releasing updates at noon instead of 11am. Apparently they need an extra hour to process increased testing data. Tough decisions on what data to release on what day to support narratives.

There is that jump back in hospitalizations I called yesterday now that most of them are reporting again.

5 of the deaths reported today occurred over a week ago. The remaining 17 all fall between 5/27-6/1.
statefan91
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+66 on hospitalizations seems like a lot. Definitely would like to understand more about how people are being admitted, the level of care needed, etc.
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

+66 on hospitalizations seems like a lot. Definitely would like to understand more about how people are being admitted, the level of care needed, etc.
It is just weekend lag. Over the weekend reporting was down to 75%. It is now back to 89%. The highest I think I have ever seen was 92%.

So far all intents and purposes, I would call hospitalizations stable over the last week.

I would LOVE to know new admits, recovered/released, average length of stay, origin of patient (LTC vs general), hotel LTC, location of hospitalizations, ICU vs non-critical. But the state of NC puts no value on these things as public knowledge.

The Mass daily report lists hospitals and their actual patient counts in each hospital. NY and NJ both say how many NEW patients are coming in each day and how many RECOVERED are leaving.

NC provides just a raw number and even then doesn't even REQUIRE hospitals to report and everybody is ok with it. Media hasn't called them out on their gaps.
Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

+66 on hospitalizations seems like a lot. Definitely would like to understand more about how people are being admitted, the level of care needed, etc.
It is just weekend lag. Over the weekend reporting was down to 75%. It is now back to 89%. The highest I think I have ever seen was 92%.

So far all intents and purposes, I would call hospitalizations stable over the last week.

I would LOVE to know new admits, recovered/released, average length of stay, origin of patient (LTC vs general), hotel LTC, location of hospitalizations, ICU vs non-critical. But the state of NC puts no value on these things as public knowledge.

The Mass daily report lists hospitals and their actual patient counts in each hospital. NY and NJ both say how many NEW patients are coming in each day and how many RECOVERED are leaving.

NC provides just a raw number and even then doesn't even REQUIRE hospitals to report and everybody is ok with it. Media hasn't called them out on their gaps.
I just tweeted back at WRAL with regards to their hospitalizations headline, pointing out that the percentage of hospitals reporting increased by 14% from yesterday to today. I have 94% as the highest percentage of hospitals reporting and this was on 5/15.

WRAL also wrongly reported on the news this morning in the 6:30am segment that hospitalizations are increasing by an average of 600+ (I can not remember their exact number used) patients a day, which is an out-right lie. They also used the very tired "cases increased in a 24 hour" period phrase when trying to report the case increases from yesterday. They have never (to my knowledge) pointed out the "dumping" of data practiced daily by NCDHHS in their dashboard. At this point, I believe they are being deliberately manipulative in their reporting. If not, they are dumber than I ever imagined.

I will continue to call them out on Twitter when they lie and mislead the general public.
Wayland
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Which is why we need more insight into just what is a hospitalization.

Things like that drive me nuts. I cringed when Cohen said yesterday that we just had our highest day of cases on Saturday. No we didn't, we had it last Tuesday, but the (majority of the) cases were not reported until Saturday mixed in with some reporting from other days.

The state is being deliberately opaque in how data is presented so that the narrative can be controlled. Alluding to food processing and congregate outbreaks, but not straight out saying when they occur. I honestly think admitting to 'hot spot chasing' yesterday was a bit of a slip. Unfortunately, the media is not bright enough to understand how that can skew underlying data.

"BIG NUMBER BAD, LOW NUMBER GOOD." Is about all they understand.

While I am just ranting, I understand the lag going from County -> State data, but I would love more insight into the reverse lag. Odd statistical outliers like NC reporting 300 more cases of COVID-19 in Mecklenburg than Mecklenburg does on their site. It is not significant in the grand scheme, but it just makes me curious why you have a gap going the wrong way if data is going from County -> State what is the source of the data discrepancy. Also Meck has 18 Congregate outbreaks.....
GuerrillaPack
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Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.
"Ye are not of the world, but I have chosen you out of the world, therefore the world hateth you." - John 15:19
RunsWithWolves26
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GuerrillaPack said:

Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Of course it is. According to you, COVID19 is fake. Just like the moon landing, the earth being round, all protesters are antifa and not other groups as well and on and on you go.
wilmwolf
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You know RWW, you could just not respond to him.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
TheStorm
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Wayland said:

Which is why we need more insight into just what is a hospitalization.

Things like that drive me nuts. I cringed when Cohen said yesterday that we just had our highest day of cases on Saturday. No we didn't, we had it last Tuesday, but the (majority of the) cases were not reported until Saturday mixed in with some reporting from other days.

The state is being deliberately opaque in how data is presented so that the narrative can be controlled. Alluding to food processing and congregate outbreaks, but not straight out saying when they occur. I honestly think admitting to 'hot spot chasing' yesterday was a bit of a slip. Unfortunately, the media is not bright enough to understand how that can skew underlying data.

"BIG NUMBER BAD, LOW NUMBER GOOD." Is about all they understand.

While I am just ranting, I understand the lag going from County -> State data, but I would love more insight into the reverse lag. Odd statistical outliers like NC reporting 300 more cases of COVID-19 in Mecklenburg than Mecklenburg does on their site. It is not significant in the grand scheme, but it just makes me curious why you have a gap going the wrong way if data is going from County -> State what is the source of the data discrepancy. Also Meck has 18 Congregate outbreaks.....
I've been less and less and less impressed with Cohen as time has gone by... she seems to try very, very hard every single day now to sensationalize things - even though her overall numbers are still on the wane in general...

Even with these recent spikes in some portions of the data my ongoing tracking of the running total of cases as a percentage of tests is lower today than it was after our RECORD DAY OF NEW CASES on May 23 when we headlined the national news (LOL)... Deaths as a percentage of Tests continues to drop - and Deaths as a percentage of Cases continues to drop as well.

But it's COMPLETELY OK for for people to riot, destroy property and loot in NC now in groups of hundreds and or even thousands (depending on the town or city)... but it's still not OK for a bar or gym to be open. Go figure?
TheStorm
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

GuerrillaPack said:

Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Of course it is. According to you, COVID19 is fake. Just like the moon landing, the earth being round, all protesters are antifa and not other groups as well and on and on you go.
Man, first of all I learned a pretty long time ago not to even read one of Guerrilla's posts here... and I was all with you on your response until you stuck your head up your ass with the Antifa comment. But whatever...
RunsWithWolves26
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TheStorm said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

GuerrillaPack said:

Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Of course it is. According to you, COVID19 is fake. Just like the moon landing, the earth being round, all protesters are antifa and not other groups as well and on and on you go.
Man, first of all I learned a pretty long time ago not to even read one of Guerrilla's posts here... and I was all with you on your response until you stuck your head up your ass with the Antifa comment. But whatever...


Stuck my head up my ass? You really believe that every one of these looters/rioters is antifa? You really believe they are the only group behind this crap? If I've got my head up my ass for seeing that it's multiple groups doing this, then so be it. But whatever.
TheStorm
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

TheStorm said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

GuerrillaPack said:

Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Of course it is. According to you, COVID19 is fake. Just like the moon landing, the earth being round, all protesters are antifa and not other groups as well and on and on you go.
Man, first of all I learned a pretty long time ago not to even read one of Guerrilla's posts here... and I was all with you on your response until you stuck your head up your ass with the Antifa comment. But whatever...


Stuck my head up my ass? You really believe that every one of these looters/rioters is antifa? You really believe they are the only group behind this crap? If I've got my head up my ass for seeing that it's multiple groups doing this, then so be it. But whatever.
There is a big difference between your "every one" and who is organizing and orchestrating these riots, looting and destruction of personal property across an entire country (none of which has anything to do with George Floyd, by the way). We just went through this 3 years ago or so. When it got to Charlotte, 90% of those people were from other states. They came in on ****ing busses. Glad that you were paying attention as normal.
RunsWithWolves26
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TheStorm said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

TheStorm said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

GuerrillaPack said:

Sorry if this was posted earlier, but the CDC admits that the death rate for "Covid-19" is less than 0.40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-says-35percent-of-coronavirus-infections-are-asymptomatic/ar-BB14r1Ii

Quote:

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic

[...]

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
So...if 0.40% death rate is for those that show symptoms, and 35% of infections do not show symptoms...then by my math that means that around 1.5 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms..and the overall death rate would be 0.26% according to those numbers.

That 35% number seems like an extremely low estimate to me. Probably more like 5-10 times as many people have been infected as have shown symptoms.

The death rate for the seasonal flu is right around 0.20%. So this thing is probably less deadly than the seasonal flu.


Of course it is. According to you, COVID19 is fake. Just like the moon landing, the earth being round, all protesters are antifa and not other groups as well and on and on you go.
Man, first of all I learned a pretty long time ago not to even read one of Guerrilla's posts here... and I was all with you on your response until you stuck your head up your ass with the Antifa comment. But whatever...


Stuck my head up my ass? You really believe that every one of these looters/rioters is antifa? You really believe they are the only group behind this crap? If I've got my head up my ass for seeing that it's multiple groups doing this, then so be it. But whatever.
There is a big difference between your "every one" and who is organizing and orchestrating these riots, looting and destruction of personal property across an entire country (none of which has anything to do with George Floyd, by the way). We just went through this 3 years ago or so. When it got to Charlotte, 90% of those people were from other states. They came in on ****ing busses. Glad that you were paying attention as normal.


So you're saying they are all antifa? That all these riots are being orcastrated by one group? That's what you're saying correct? Also, glad to see you bolded part of your post this time. You didn't on the last one so I thought you were going out of character.
bigeric
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They are George Soros funded acolytes (employees), under many names.
Like I said, if you cant get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
Steve Williams
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Staff
This isn't a thread about George Soros, Antifa, etc. It's been my go-to for info on Covid so please don't screw it up. Thanks to you guys that have presented factual info daily.
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

6/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908

559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths

674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.

3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.
6/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
29,889
NC Deaths**
921
Currently Hospitalized
716
Completed Tests
434,921

574 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
76 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

271 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
650 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 933 (+2) and NandO is at 961 deaths

626 positive cases over 13,013 new tests. 4.8% positive rate.

DHHS is now releasing updates at noon instead of 11am. Apparently they need an extra hour to process increased testing data. Tough decisions on what data to release on what day to support narratives.

There is that jump back in hospitalizations I called yesterday now that most of them are reporting again.

5 of the deaths reported today occurred over a week ago. The remaining 17 all fall between 5/27-6/1.
6/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
30,777
NC Deaths**
939
Currently Hospitalized
684
Completed Tests
449,263

585 Deaths are now Congregate (+11)
80 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

274 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
665 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 952 (+2) and NandO is at 980 deaths

888 positive cases over 14342 new tests. 6.2% positive rate.

Every day for the last 8 days contains at least 1 death reported in today's total.

26 of the deaths reported by the media but not reported by DHHS are coming from three counties.
Carteret - DHHS 3, NandO 9, County - 3
Robeson - DHHS 14, NandO 26, County - 22
Alamance - DHHS 20, NandO 28, County - 23

Media reporting that unfortunately, NC has had its first death of a minor due to COVID-19 complications.

PackMom
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There was talk earlier that some cases were attributed to Alamance County because the tests were run at LabCorp and there was no address given. I don't know how that might or might not apply to deaths.

In addition, I have been told that Alamance County COVID19 patients are all sent to the Cone facility in Greensboro. Could there be some delay/confusion about reporting where they die versus where their address was?
statefan91
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Have you been able to discern where the "Unknown" settings usually end up being for the deaths? The congregate deaths are staggering when compared to general pop, and then adding unknown makes it even more concerning.
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

Have you been able to discern where the "Unknown" settings usually end up being for the deaths? The congregate deaths are staggering when compared to general pop, and then adding unknown makes it even more concerning.
To me, "Unknown" is more likely a congregate death than not and I still think congregate deaths were being under counted early. Unknown deaths typically aren't being reassigned or if they are it is being clouded by the fact that additional Unknown deaths are being added on the same days as reassignment.

And the number of Unknown deaths continues to be an increasing trend (reassignment or not). I

t seems odd to me that DHHS is having that hard a time tracking these down. When it gets to 80 cases, now you have a backlog. But these are only coming in a couple a day, make some calls.
Wayland
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Along the hospitalization front. NC doesn't publish any data but other states post a ton. I saw a big headline today that Arizona has hit their record high hospitalizations (over 1000), but lets look at their cases by Date of Hospitalization from the Arizona Dashboard. (source: https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php)



Even allowing for some delay, there certainly isn't any noticeable spike. Based on other's analysis, people examining hospital resource usage are leaning towards hospitals are lengthening patient stays and hoteling patients.

I would guess something similar is occurring in NC, but without any insight into NC data, I have to make guesses based on comparable trends elsewhere.
Daviewolf83
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I posted the following response on Twitter to the latest tweet by WRAL with regards to NC passing 30,000 cases -just to provide some perspective to their tweet.

NCDHHS estimates 18,860 have recovered from the virus, meaning more people in NC have recovered from the virus than remain infected with the virus (11,917). Of the 888 new cases reported today, 290 are from samples taken on Monday and 278 are from Saturday/Sunday samples.


Daviewolf83
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Wayland said:

Along the hospitalization front. NC doesn't publish any data but other states post a ton. I saw a big headline today that Arizona has hit their record high hospitalizations (over 1000), but lets look at their cases by Date of Hospitalization from the Arizona Dashboard. (source: https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php)



Even allowing for some delay, there certainly isn't any noticeable spike. Based on other's analysis, people examining hospital resource usage are leaning towards hospitals are lengthening patient stays and hoteling patients.

I would guess something similar is occurring in NC, but without any insight into NC data, I have to make guesses based on comparable trends elsewhere.
Thanks Wayland. I wish NC provided this type of information. I did noticed a footnote indicating that 38% of their cases reported lack hospitalization status.

I found more detail on their site that showed the following:

Total cases discharged from hospital: 5,075
Current Covid Patients in ICU: 379 (35% of patients)
Ventilators in Use for Covid: 239 (22% of patients)
Current Covid Patients Hospitalized: 1,092

All the data is self-reported by the hospitals and it is summarized every morning. They do include a disclaimer at the bottom of the page that says the following:

"Large decreases or increases may be due to differences in self reporting"
TheStorm
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Steve Williams said:

This isn't a thread about George Soros, Antifa, etc. It's been my go-to for info on Covid so please don't screw it up. Thanks to you guys that have presented factual info daily.
I agree fully.

Shouldn't have allowed myself to get goaded into it here. Not the place for it, thankfully.
TheStorm
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PackMom said:

There was talk earlier that some cases were attributed to Alamance County because the tests were run at LabCorp and there was no address given. I don't know how that might or might not apply to deaths.

In addition, I have been told that Alamance County COVID19 patients are all sent to the Cone facility in Greensboro. Could there be some delay/confusion about reporting where they die versus where their address was?
Do you live in Alamance County? Or are you from there originally? Seems like we knew some of the same people in past conversation...
Daviewolf83
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PackMom said:

There was talk earlier that some cases were attributed to Alamance County because the tests were run at LabCorp and there was no address given. I don't know how that might or might not apply to deaths.

In addition, I have been told that Alamance County COVID19 patients are all sent to the Cone facility in Greensboro. Could there be some delay/confusion about reporting where they die versus where their address was?
For cases, it is up to each county health department. I would assume the labs (like LabCorp) are reporting cases by the patient's permanent address, but I do not know this for sure. I can see where it could get confusing. As an example, I know someone who was just tested this week for Covid as part of a contact tracing initiative. A coworker's girlfriend tested positive for Covid, so they advised my friend and his coworker to get tested. My friend lives in Winston-Salem, but works in Concord. The testing was done in Concord, so I am not sure if his test will be reported for Forsyth County or for Cabarrus County. He had to wait 3 hours to get tested, but he got the results back in 30 minutes. The good news, both he and his coworker tested negative for the virus.

The reporting for deaths is supposed to be based on the current permanent address of the deceased and this should be listed on the death certificate. It is possible there is some delay in getting death certificates returned to the appropriate county, but I do not know the full process for this to happen.
PackMom
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TheStorm said:

PackMom said:

There was talk earlier that some cases were attributed to Alamance County because the tests were run at LabCorp and there was no address given. I don't know how that might or might not apply to deaths.

In addition, I have been told that Alamance County COVID19 patients are all sent to the Cone facility in Greensboro. Could there be some delay/confusion about reporting where they die versus where their address was?
Do you live in Alamance County? Or are you from there originally? Seems like we knew some of the same people in past conversation...
I grew up in Alamance County and still have family there.
TheStorm
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Wayland said:

statefan91 said:

Have you been able to discern where the "Unknown" settings usually end up being for the deaths? The congregate deaths are staggering when compared to general pop, and then adding unknown makes it even more concerning.
To me, "Unknown" is more likely a congregate death than not and I still think congregate deaths were being under counted early. Unknown deaths typically aren't being reassigned or if they are it is being clouded by the fact that additional Unknown deaths are being added on the same days as reassignment.

And the number of Unknown deaths continues to be an increasing trend (reassignment or not). I

t seems odd to me that DHHS is having that hard a time tracking these down. When it gets to 80 cases, now you have a backlog. But these are only coming in a couple a day, make some calls.
The strangest part about all of this recent "getting cute with the numbers", "but Mandy Cohen says", etc. - and your well-stated, fully legitimate questions are, in that even if I just look at my personal (highly unsophisticated) tracking of the NCDHHS data (entered only as it is reported to me that one single day and not adjusted - ie. I'm completely using their numbers)... we are still D O W N the following from THE DAY BEFORE our HUGE May 23rd SPIKE:

Running Averages (From 5/22 through today):
% CONFIRMED CASES as of the number of Completed Tests - (Down 3.91% from 5/22 running average)
% DEATHS as of the number of Completed Tests - (Down 12.92% from 5/22 running average)
% DEATHS as of the number of Confirmed Cases - (Down 9.41% from 5/22 running average)

Nothing here suggests to me that this is getting worse...


Wayland
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Big midweek death dump coming out of NandO, they used to hold on to data until after DHHS updated, but now they are pushing right away.

NandO has 999 deaths listed already and +500 cases already going into the evening. Which is a +29 on the day. Looks like Wednesday is when everyone clears their ledger.

Deaths look pretty spaced out but Alamance +3, Robeson +3, Guilford +6 (one of the hardest hit areas), No one else has more than 2 delta over morning numbers. Considering the Congregate Outbreak report still only has Guilford with 21 congregate deaths, some focus really needs to be put there (of course pending the report update).
bigeric
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TheStorm said:

Steve Williams said:

This isn't a thread about George Soros, Antifa, etc. It's been my go-to for info on Covid so please don't screw it up. Thanks to you guys that have presented factual info daily.
I agree fully.

Shouldn't have allowed myself to get goaded into it here. Not the place for it, thankfully.
Mea culpa

Apologize.
Like I said, if you cant get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
Wayland
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Wayland said:

Wayland said:

Wayland said:

6/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
29,263
NC Deaths**
898
Currently Hospitalized
650
Completed Tests
421,908

559 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
72 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

267 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
631 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

162 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 923 (+2) and NandO is at 944 deaths

674 positive cases over 5619 new tests. 12.0% positive rate.

3 of the deaths reported by DHHS today are over 10 days old. Expect a spike in hospitalizations tomorrow, hospitals have been slack in reporting on the weekends.
6/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
29,889
NC Deaths**
921
Currently Hospitalized
716
Completed Tests
434,921

574 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
76 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

271 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
650 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 933 (+2) and NandO is at 961 deaths

626 positive cases over 13,013 new tests. 4.8% positive rate.

DHHS is now releasing updates at noon instead of 11am. Apparently they need an extra hour to process increased testing data. Tough decisions on what data to release on what day to support narratives.

There is that jump back in hospitalizations I called yesterday now that most of them are reporting again.

5 of the deaths reported today occurred over a week ago. The remaining 17 all fall between 5/27-6/1.
6/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
30,777
NC Deaths**
939
Currently Hospitalized
684
Completed Tests
449,263

585 Deaths are now Congregate (+11)
80 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

274 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
665 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

163 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)

WRAL is at 952 (+2) and NandO is at 980 deaths

888 positive cases over 14342 new tests. 6.2% positive rate.

Every day for the last 8 days contains at least 1 death reported in today's total.

26 of the deaths reported by the media but not reported by DHHS are coming from three counties.
Carteret - DHHS 3, NandO 9, County - 3
Robeson - DHHS 14, NandO 26, County - 22
Alamance - DHHS 20, NandO 28, County - 23

Media reporting that unfortunately, NC has had its first death of a minor due to COVID-19 complications.


6/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases*
31,966
NC Deaths**
960
Currently Hospitalized
659
Completed Tests
468,302

598 Deaths are now Congregate (+13)
79 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

283 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
665 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

167 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+4)

WRAL is at 963 (+2) and NandO is at 997 deaths

1189 positive cases over 19039 new tests. 6.2% positive rate.

Big case day, massive number of tests. Hospitalizations down (85% reporting vs 88% yesterday). Most of the cases are from Monday, maybe they are getting a little quicker at reporting.

Based on my daily tracking of deaths by date starting 5/7. Three of the death reported today either were not added to the DHHS graph or occurred greater than a month ago. 1 is from 5/21 and the remainder are from within the last week.
statefan91
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There's so much variability in the # of tests and results day to day, it's hard to understand them.
Wayland
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statefan91 said:

There's so much variability in the # of tests and results day to day, it's hard to understand them.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of that new prison testing was in there, but not much you can tell by the case numbers. Other than I wouldn't let the spikes scare you too much (despite white Cuomo might be trying to sell in his pressers. He called out NC today).

And of course WRAL's BREAKING headline is "NC reports highest single day of new coronavirus cases." They live for big numbers, no context.

Not sure their data expert they roll out even knows how to read graphs.

Will be interesting to see what the PHE Network hospitalization admit numbers looks like in the surveillance this afternoon. Thursdays and Fridays are always fun datawise as that is when CDC does their weekly compilation.
statefan91
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Agree on most of what you said.

Definitely not scared, actually took the kids back to daycare this week.
cowboypack02
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statefan91 said:

Agree on most of what you said.

Definitely not scared, actually took the kids back to daycare this week.
Why should any of us be scared at this point? The same people who have been telling us to socially distance and stay home are telling us its OK to go out in large crowds and protest.

Most of the folks (looking at you Cooper) only believed it until something better came along they thought they could make their political points off of.
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