My question is - it's great if NC is trending in a good direction, however there is still mostly free travel from state to state so how does any state prevent outbreaks due to pass throughs and people like that?

statefan91 said:

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My question is - it's great if NC is trending in a good direction, however there is still mostly free travel from state to state so how does any state prevent outbreaks due to pass throughs and people like that?

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By actually being proactive about testing and tracing, but unfortunately the state seems content to sit on their hands and wait.

Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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packgrad said:

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NC continues to be below the lower limit on the model that Davie was tracking. The lower limit for yesterday was 20 deaths. We were at 18. We had 3 deaths in the state yesterday. Hope we continue to trend lower than the model.

Edit... did not mean this as a reply to a poster. Just a reply all.

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NC seems to be outperforming some of our peer states. Knock on wood and hope this continues.

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I am waiting for NC to release their official numbers later this morning (typically around 11am), before I update my spreadsheet. I have seen conflicting numbers this morning on media reports (saw 18 and 20), which is why I always wait for the mid-day update. Some media reports include people traveling through NC that are not residents of the state and some do not, which is why I prefer to wait for the official number.

You can see the official numbers at the following site. There is also good information on the numbers for ICU beds and ventilators and ICU beds available.

NCDHHS Covid-19 Website

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I had posted those numbers on this thread the last three days. I know WRAL includes the pass-throughs on their numbers since higher numbers = higher ratings.

I am still optimistic the NC is in a good place because our higher density counties were pro-active. Again, it is interesting to me that NC deaths seem to be trending to the lesser pop density and more rural counties and the fatality rate right now is much lower in cities.... of course all skewed by lack of testing.

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I'd guess that's due to higher %s of elderly people in rural communities.

King Leary said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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packgrad said:

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NC continues to be below the lower limit on the model that Davie was tracking. The lower limit for yesterday was 20 deaths. We were at 18. We had 3 deaths in the state yesterday. Hope we continue to trend lower than the model.

Edit... did not mean this as a reply to a poster. Just a reply all.

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NC seems to be outperforming some of our peer states. Knock on wood and hope this continues.

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I am waiting for NC to release their official numbers later this morning (typically around 11am), before I update my spreadsheet. I have seen conflicting numbers this morning on media reports (saw 18 and 20), which is why I always wait for the mid-day update. Some media reports include people traveling through NC that are not residents of the state and some do not, which is why I prefer to wait for the official number.

You can see the official numbers at the following site. There is also good information on the numbers for ICU beds and ventilators and ICU beds available.

NCDHHS Covid-19 Website

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I had posted those numbers on this thread the last three days. I know WRAL includes the pass-throughs on their numbers since higher numbers = higher ratings.

I am still optimistic the NC is in a good place because our higher density counties were pro-active. Again, it is interesting to me that NC deaths seem to be trending to the lesser pop density and more rural counties and the fatality rate right now is much lower in cities.... of course all skewed by lack of testing.

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I'd guess that's due to higher %s of elderly people in rural communities.

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That and no county in the state has more than one death. There is no trend in regards to counties.

I think when this is over, we are going to find a really high mortality rates in rural areas.

The medical care capacity is really low in these areas, as well as social support structure.

packgrad said:

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King Leary said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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packgrad said:

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NC continues to be below the lower limit on the model that Davie was tracking. The lower limit for yesterday was 20 deaths. We were at 18. We had 3 deaths in the state yesterday. Hope we continue to trend lower than the model.

Edit... did not mean this as a reply to a poster. Just a reply all.

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NC seems to be outperforming some of our peer states. Knock on wood and hope this continues.

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I am waiting for NC to release their official numbers later this morning (typically around 11am), before I update my spreadsheet. I have seen conflicting numbers this morning on media reports (saw 18 and 20), which is why I always wait for the mid-day update. Some media reports include people traveling through NC that are not residents of the state and some do not, which is why I prefer to wait for the official number.

You can see the official numbers at the following site. There is also good information on the numbers for ICU beds and ventilators and ICU beds available.

NCDHHS Covid-19 Website

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I had posted those numbers on this thread the last three days. I know WRAL includes the pass-throughs on their numbers since higher numbers = higher ratings.

I am still optimistic the NC is in a good place because our higher density counties were pro-active. Again, it is interesting to me that NC deaths seem to be trending to the lesser pop density and more rural counties and the fatality rate right now is much lower in cities.... of course all skewed by lack of testing.

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I'd guess that's due to higher %s of elderly people in rural communities.

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That and no county in the state has more than one death. There is no trend in regards to counties.

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Sorry, are you saying there is no county in NC reporting more than one death?

Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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King Leary said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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packgrad said:

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NC continues to be below the lower limit on the model that Davie was tracking. The lower limit for yesterday was 20 deaths. We were at 18. We had 3 deaths in the state yesterday. Hope we continue to trend lower than the model.

Edit... did not mean this as a reply to a poster. Just a reply all.

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NC seems to be outperforming some of our peer states. Knock on wood and hope this continues.

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I am waiting for NC to release their official numbers later this morning (typically around 11am), before I update my spreadsheet. I have seen conflicting numbers this morning on media reports (saw 18 and 20), which is why I always wait for the mid-day update. Some media reports include people traveling through NC that are not residents of the state and some do not, which is why I prefer to wait for the official number.

You can see the official numbers at the following site. There is also good information on the numbers for ICU beds and ventilators and ICU beds available.

NCDHHS Covid-19 Website

---

I had posted those numbers on this thread the last three days. I know WRAL includes the pass-throughs on their numbers since higher numbers = higher ratings.

I am still optimistic the NC is in a good place because our higher density counties were pro-active. Again, it is interesting to me that NC deaths seem to be trending to the lesser pop density and more rural counties and the fatality rate right now is much lower in cities.... of course all skewed by lack of testing.

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I'd guess that's due to higher %s of elderly people in rural communities.

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That and no county in the state has more than one death. There is no trend in regards to counties.

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Sorry, are you saying there is no county in NC reporting more than one death?

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As of yesterday, yes. I believe Meck will have multiple in today's numbers.

Wayland said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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King Leary said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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packgrad said:

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NC continues to be below the lower limit on the model that Davie was tracking. The lower limit for yesterday was 20 deaths. We were at 18. We had 3 deaths in the state yesterday. Hope we continue to trend lower than the model.

Edit... did not mean this as a reply to a poster. Just a reply all.

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NC seems to be outperforming some of our peer states. Knock on wood and hope this continues.

---

I am waiting for NC to release their official numbers later this morning (typically around 11am), before I update my spreadsheet. I have seen conflicting numbers this morning on media reports (saw 18 and 20), which is why I always wait for the mid-day update. Some media reports include people traveling through NC that are not residents of the state and some do not, which is why I prefer to wait for the official number.

You can see the official numbers at the following site. There is also good information on the numbers for ICU beds and ventilators and ICU beds available.

NCDHHS Covid-19 Website

---

I had posted those numbers on this thread the last three days. I know WRAL includes the pass-throughs on their numbers since higher numbers = higher ratings.

I am still optimistic the NC is in a good place because our higher density counties were pro-active. Again, it is interesting to me that NC deaths seem to be trending to the lesser pop density and more rural counties and the fatality rate right now is much lower in cities.... of course all skewed by lack of testing.

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I'd guess that's due to higher %s of elderly people in rural communities.

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That and no county in the state has more than one death. There is no trend in regards to counties.

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Sorry, are you saying there is no county in NC reporting more than one death?

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As of yesterday, yes. I believe Meck will have multiple in today's numbers.

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The numbers are not accurate because of a delay in reporting. Guilford has had 2 deaths as of 2 days ago, and expected 2 more by the day's end yesterday. This week (really the next 3 weeks as reporting catches up) will be very telling IMHO.

If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

Ground_Chuck said:

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I think when this is over, we are going to find a really high mortality rates in rural areas.

The medical care capacity is really low in these areas, as well as social support structure.

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The flip side is that transmission rates will be lower due to natural spacing. Poor urban areas are the biggest risk IMO. NYs initial response wasn't terrible compared to the rest of the nation but their crazy population density was a huge factor in spread.

packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age (20% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 50-64 age (28% of positive cases)
2 deaths between 25-49 age (43% of positive cases)

2919 additional completed tests, 236 positive results for a 8.1% positive test rate day to day.

Wayland said:

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https://www.ncdhhs.gov/covid-19-case-count-nc

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
10
Currently Hospitalized
204


4/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
1857
NC Deaths**
16
Currently Hospitalized
184

4/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:25am)

NC Cases*
2093
NC Deaths**
19
Currently Hospitalized
259

Guilford now shows 3 deaths and Mecklenburg 2.

15 deaths > 65 age
2 deaths between 50-64 age
2 deaths between 25-49 age

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I just want to say that I, for one, and very thankful that you post this daily. I truly mean that. Makes it easier to follow the state itself. Thanks!

Cuomo just said he will have the National Guard go and take ventilator's from places that don't need them "right now." Said that is not considered seizing anything. That is exactly what that is considered.

His point to explain this was that they need them in NYC and the other people don't. So if hospital X has 20 ventilator's and are only using 10 right now, Cuomo basically says that he will have the National Guard take 8 of those leaving hospital X with 2 remaining free. His resonating is Hospital X doesn't there them now. So what happens if tomorrow, hospital X has 7 people show up the next day needing a ventilator? I guess for Cuomo, it's ok because damnit, NYC needed them. I guess this is where we get to the part of this virus that others have mentioned. Who do we save and who do we not save?

packgrad said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

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I was just playing with you anyway. That's why I put the winky in there. Believe me, I'm no huge fanboy of the hospitals.

Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

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I was just playing with you anyway. That's why I put the winky in there. Believe me, I'm no huge fanboy of the hospitals.

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10 4 man. Stay healthy.

Duke just got raided of their stash. That's happening more than we know.

Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

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I was just playing with you anyway. That's why I put the winky in there. Believe me, I'm no huge fanboy of the hospitals.

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Data collection in hospitals is a whole ClusterF@#k of it's own, even without CV-19

IseWolf22 said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

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I was just playing with you anyway. That's why I put the winky in there. Believe me, I'm no huge fanboy of the hospitals.

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Data collection in hospitals is a whole ClusterF@#k of it's own, even without CV-19

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True. Dat.

Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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Mormad said:

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packgrad said:

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If hospitals can't keep up with reporting fatalities now, god help us if we do ever hit the peak.

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You should show them how to do it

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Nm. Not helpful. Deleted.

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I was just playing with you anyway. That's why I put the winky in there. Believe me, I'm no huge fanboy of the hospitals.

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And WRAL is reporting that last Guilford death. Looks like you will get your wish and they will be in tomorrows' numbers.

And what do you know, when you look at the NY Times social distancing article, Guilford County comes in 4th place NATIONWIDE where people were still travelling the most (in counties over 500,000) last Friday. Maybe they should have been taking it more seriously while the rest of the NC metros had shut it down.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

Yup

Ground_Chuck said:

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I think when this is over, we are going to find a really high mortality rates in rural areas.

The medical care capacity is really low in these areas, as well as social support structure.

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Yes, rural NYC versus the metropolis' in WNC are proving your point.

When are we going to make the correlation between population density and the mortality of this virus? Is it not obvious by now that the more condensed the population, the worse this is? NYC, NOLA, Detroit, Madrid, Lomardia, etc, are the driving forces behind the overall severity of the virus. Rural lifestyles like my own tend to lend itself to social distancing by nature, with or without a pandemic.

Wayland - thanks for posting the daily update and I have updated my spreadsheet to reflect 19 deaths.

As it compares to the model I am tracking (IHME Model from 3/30/2020), the total of 19 deaths is one less than the lower limit projected for this date. Hopefully, deaths stay on the lower side of the confidence interval for the model. The bad news is by the end of the weekend, the lower confidence interval projects a total of 38 deaths in North Carolina. Let's all hope we stay below this number.

As I mentioned before, I picked the 3/30 model projections to track, since this is one of the key models used by the Federal Coronavirus Taskforce to recommend the extension of the lockdown to the end of April.

One piece of bad news that should serve as a reminder to us all. I have looked at the the curve showing total new daily cases for North Carolina and it is not good news. It shows that the number of daily cases reported is still increasing. As an example, yesterday may have been 250 new cases and today there are 300 new cases. Please realize these numbers are not the real numbers, they are only for illustration purposes. This is bad and until I see the growth in the number of daily new cases flatten out, I am worried. The curve does appear to be curving slightly, but it is still not flat. One good thing, when I look at this curve for New York, it is flattening out. So New York is making progress and even though they are in much worse shape in the total number of cases and deaths, they do have some things trending in their favor now.

The fact the number of daily new cases continues to grow in size for North Carolina could be bad news. There are two key reasons this could be happening:
1. The amount of testing is growing, but the percentage of positive tests is constant. I have not tracked the numbers daily, but on average 5.5% of people tested are positive for the virus in NC. I have looked at this number for the past three days and it has held constant in the 5-6% range.
2. The controls we put in place two weeks ago to flatten the curve are not as effective as they need to be. This would be bad, since we need to have the controls work to eventually reverse the trends of infection and death.

Hopefully, the reason is number 1 and not number 2. If it is number 2, we really need people to continue to take the guidelines seriously, avoid going out and coming in contact with others (ie., getting closer than 6 feet), and potentially start wearing a face-mask when in public. I think most people are really trying to follow the guidelines, but it really does take everyone.

The test numbers are lagged across a number of days, so it is tough to get a true sense of the data since it includes tests from basically every day this week.

Of the new positive cases date of specimen collection could have been any time in the last two weeks.

94-95% of people tested don't have it. We are mostly only testing people with symptoms. To me, that is good news.

You guys rock with the info you bring. Some of you must spend plenty of time following this thing really closely. Much appreciated.

packgrad said:

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94-95% of people tested don't have it. We are mostly only testing people with symptoms. To me, that is good news.

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I think that's really good news too. Hopefully we see a continuous increase in that %

Tracking total cases is less meaningful when large counties such as Wake decide to only test at-risk patients with serious symptoms.

NC deaths and hospitalizations will be the key metrics going forward.

packgrad said:

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94-95% of people tested don't have it. We are mostly only testing people with symptoms. To me, that is good news.

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Totally agree. Gotta be a good thing right? I don't really know the false negative rate, but I still find that stat encouraging in a world where we're searching for any and every encouraging sign with this relative unknown.

Mormad said:

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You guys rock with the info you bring. Some of you must spend plenty of time following this thing really closely. Much appreciated.

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I'll admit my actual real work product has suffered with the amount of time I have looked over numbers, stats, and graphs the last few weeks.

acslater1344 said:

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Tracking total cases is less meaningful when large counties such as Wake decide to only test at-risk patients with serious symptoms.

NC deaths and hospitalizations will be the key metrics going forward.

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I wish there were better public localized data on hospitalizations and ICU/vent usage, so we could better understand NC hot spots.

But I agree, positive test cases while interesting, doesn't have a whole lot of merit. I would LOVE for the state government to take initiative and do some legit population sampling.

Right. I think the total cases are much higher. Plenty of people with minor symptoms don't seek testing, and those in the ER or office that don't need to be admitted are often sent home to self isolate without being tested, and I guess 5% of those would be positive based on grad's numbers. So the actual number of cases should be quite a bit higher in reality I assume. There are reasons not to test I guess, but we can't really know the true incidence and prevalence without it.

Bas2020 said:

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As of today.

1 death per 300 people losing their jobs.

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Damn