Coronavirus

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statefan91
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Can't get your link to work for me
PossumJenkins
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this
Wayland
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3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204

About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.

We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!
RunsWithWolves26
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Wayland said:

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204

About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.

We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!


According to worldometers, deaths are at 10 now
packgrad
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For reference, the model Davie used had us at 16 on the low end, 19 on the high end. See where we end up.
Wayland
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Wayland said:

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204

About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.

We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!


According to worldometers, deaths are at 10 now
And the healthdata site has NC at 12. But I'll take the NC DHHS numbers over media numbers. Those deaths may likely be added to the official numbers over time. WRAL has consistently been adding a couple deaths to their running total over what NC DHHS has reported. More deaths equal more eyes.
Steve Videtich
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PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
acslater1344
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I wish NC would put out a number of "pending tests" as we know from our own posters that it takes several days to get results back. Do we know if the "completed tests" figure includes those pending tests? Seems like a really important piece of the puzzle here. If the 26.2k completed tests doesn't include pending results, it'd be great to have at least an idea of how large the testing backlog is.
acslater1344
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Wayland said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Wayland said:

3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204

About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.

We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!


According to worldometers, deaths are at 10 now
And the healthdata site has NC at 12. But I'll take the NC DHHS numbers over media numbers. Those deaths may likely be added to the official numbers over time. WRAL has consistently been adding a couple deaths to their running total over what NC DHHS has reported. More deaths equal more eyes.

Most of the media sites are including daily updates from individual counties in their interim daily numbers. NC DHHS site only updates once per day.
ciscopack
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Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Steve Videtich
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I personally believe this has been in the US as early as Oct/Nov. My wife is a school teacher and she remembers having many cases in the school of kids being sick, but testing negative for flu and strep. That's why we need a test to see who's had it, and if that keeps them immune to it going forward.
IseWolf22
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acslater1344 said:

I wish NC would put out a number of "pending tests" as we know from our own posters that it takes several days to get results back. Do we know if the "completed tests" figure includes those pending tests? Seems like a really important piece of the puzzle here. If the 26.2k completed tests doesn't include pending results, it'd be great to have at least an idea of how large the testing backlog is.
This article isn't specific to NC, but it highlights the issue with the testing backlog.

Quick Points:
- Private lab companies have taken on more contracts than they can process, leading to delays in results
- Results are Last in First Out so older tests continue to be delayed
- Illinois (1 example) takes 4-7 days on avg or up to 10 for a result
- California, Texas, Georgia (among others) have performed few tests per capita
- California has 57,000 tests pending (and haven't performed a lot of testing per capita)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/
Daviewolf83
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ciscopack said:

Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.

Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.

I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):

" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."

There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.

There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.
ciscopack
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Daviewolf83 said:

ciscopack said:

Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.

Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.

I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):

" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."

There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.

There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.

It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.
ciscopack
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ciscopack said:

Daviewolf83 said:

ciscopack said:

Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.

Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.

I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):

" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."

There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.

There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.



It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.

I saw it in video but here are several stills.... (Jan. 27)

click the arrow
Colonel Armstrong
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I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.
RunsWithWolves26
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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
RunsWithWolves26
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King Leary said:

I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.


Auto deaths ain't got **** to do with this thread or this virus. If you want to keep posting that, start another thread. Has ZERO to do with this.
ncsualum05
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
My understanding is that total deaths from the start to the end of the "curve". So that would be over a span going into summer/ fall I guess. The peak is supposed to be in 2 weeks which is the most number of deaths in a day. The rate of death/day is increasing. They hope that by mid-April the death rate per day will start to decrease. You could days coming up where you have several thousand deaths/ day.
Packchem91
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King Leary said:

I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.
It is interesting -- out of the big population states, seems NC is disproportionally low in terms of cases (a good thing). W/o checking, I"m assuming our biggest cities are still very suburban driven, and not high density cities like in NE or have had major events like Mardi Gras?
One time it is good not to have been a huge vacation destination for spring break?

Or, is it a matter of not having enough tests to know?
Ground_Chuck
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak. We won't see the end of third digit death days till mid June.
jkpackfan
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PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this
Is anyone shocked by this? There's no telling how many cases/deaths they've had.
RunsWithWolves26
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ncsualum05 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
My understanding is that total deaths from the start to the end of the "curve". So that would be over a span going into summer/ fall I guess. The peak is supposed to be in 2 weeks which is the most number of deaths in a day. The rate of death/day is increasing. They hope that by mid-April the death rate per day will start to decrease. You could days coming up where you have several thousand deaths/ day.


Ok. That's what I was wondering. Thought I had misunderstood that but wanted to make sure. Thanks for the clarification on that my friend!
RunsWithWolves26
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Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.


You don't say?!?! As I said, if I heard right. The response before yours was actually very helpful.
wilmwolf
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All sorts of deaths could potentially drop due to the social distancing measures being taken. I don't think it's outside the scope of the thread to talk about that. I've seen data that suggests hospitalizations and deaths from the flu may be down as a result of this. When it's all over it will be interesting to see those numbers
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Daviewolf83
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Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
RunsWithWolves26
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wilmwolf80 said:

All sorts of deaths could potentially drop due to the social distancing measures being taken. I don't think it's outside the scope of the thread to talk about that. I've seen data that suggests hospitalizations and deaths from the flu may be down as a result of this. When it's all over it will be interesting to see those numbers


This thread was started with the title Coronavirus. It ain't about less auto deaths. I get what you are staying but the last thing I want to see is this thread go off the rails again. Mainly want it focused on info about COVID19, what the experts, government, etc are saying. Things that pertain strictly to COVID19
wolfpackin24
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Steve Williams said:

Man, the cynical, conspiracy theory, black helicopter side of me can't help but at least ponder the possibility this entire virus, ensuing chaos and impending economic collapse was concocted in a Chinese government office somewhere.
The trade war was a great idea and going so well until.....yea maybe we shouldn't f*** with China?
statefan91
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Daviewolf83 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?
RunsWithWolves26
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statefan91 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?


I find it pretty interesting that states which moves quickly to shut things down have kept their numbers down. To somewhat piggyback on your question. Could we see a scenerio where most of the country can get back in track quicker then the states like NY, NJ, etc that didn't do things sooner and are admittedly curving the numbers nation wide?
ciscopack
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ciscopack said:

ciscopack said:

Daviewolf83 said:

ciscopack said:

Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.

Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.

I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):

" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."

There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.

There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.



It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.

I saw it in video but here are several stills.... (Jan. 27)

click the arrow

I was just looking through the pictures....on Jan, 24, they are going to build a 1000 bed hospital and they have 27 excavators and 6 bulldozers in the picture......the excavators are so close they don't have to move. They were wearing masks too. Group wearing masks on the 23rd, security spraying alcohol, people at the market with masks. The video I saw...everyone was wearing masks and people were checking temperatures with those no touch therms. near the forehead. 1st case in US Jan. 21. Medical staff in hazmat suits and with goggles and gloves on Jan. 17......I saw that on video too....some of the first from Jan. 11-17 going to hospital.
wolfpackin24
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ciscopack said:

ciscopack said:

ciscopack said:

Daviewolf83 said:

ciscopack said:

Steve Videtich said:

PossumJenkins said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Sorry...try this


Let me put on my shocked face!
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.

I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.

Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.

I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):

" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."

There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.

There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.



It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.

I saw it in video but here are several stills.... (Jan. 27)

click the arrow

I was just looking through the pictures....on Jan, 24, they are going to build a 1000 bed hospital and they have 27 excavators and 6 bulldozers in the picture......the excavators are so close they don't have to move. They were wearing masks too. Group wearing masks on the 23rd, security spraying alcohol, people at the market with masks. The video I saw...everyone was wearing masks and people were checking temperatures with those no touch therms. near the forehead. 1st case in US Jan. 21. Medical staff in hazmat suits and with goggles and gloves on Jan. 17......I saw that on video too....some of the first from Jan. 11-17 going to hospital.
Maybe if we began manufacturing healthcare supplies back in January instead of waiting until now we would be in a little better shape, just a thought! I'm not in the blame China camp, and that's not saying they didn't withhold information. We can't tout ourselves as the biggest baddest country on earth, beat on our mighty chest, and then blame another country when things go south.
ciscopack
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statefan91 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?
I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.
RunsWithWolves26
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ciscopack said:

statefan91 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?
I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.


Seeing a lot of that at the beaches. It's like a ghost town down there right now.
ciscopack
How long do you want to ignore this user?
RunsWithWolves26 said:

ciscopack said:

statefan91 said:

Daviewolf83 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??


Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?
I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.


Seeing a lot of that at the beaches. It's like a ghost town down there right now.
My brother has a place in Hatteras; no one can get on the island without proving ownership there. I know the locals are suffering. They live off tourists and most never go out to eat when things are doing well.
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