wolf howl said:

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Starwolf said:

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Wayland said:

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3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

Side note . NC has gone from 550 ICU beds available early in the week to 793 now (up about 50 since yesterday)

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Yup. As a medic, it has been eerily quiet for the past few days. I've talked to ER physicians at Duke and Wakemed and they have converted any area with any beds and an Omnicell into COVID triage place. We're expecting major strain on the healthcare system in the next couple of weeks. I'll try to give y'all some more info about it!

Also I heard Florida has set up checkpoints in their state and are turning away people from NY apparently.

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For my business we have folks all over the US, and TX and FL are not necessarily turning people away but making them self quarantine for 14 days at least as of yesterday. Both if you're driving in or flying in. We've had employees stopped as they got off the plane from FL told that and employees driving from LA to TX/FL told that.

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Gotcha! Thank you for the info it definitely makes a lot more sense.

Another interesting charting site for US States. Acknowledges the data is dirty but at least shows some reference graphs.

https://www.uscovidtrends.com/index.html

Finally kicked my fever as of yesterday, which was ongoing since 3/18. Still clearing some crap from my lungs. Test results from 3/22 still not back, but there's zero doubt I've had Covid 19. It's no joke folks - I started getting a little scared after about day 8-9 of constant fever and zero energy, and feeling like I was hit by a bus.

WolfQuacker said:

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Finally kicked my fever as of yesterday, which was ongoing since 3/18. Still clearing some crap from my lungs. Test results from 3/22 still not back, but there's zero doubt I've had Covid 19. It's no joke folks - I started getting a little scared after about day 8-9 of constant fever and zero energy, and feeling like I was hit by a bus.

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What did your fever stay around? Was it high like some have reported or low? Glad you're on the better side of things now

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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WolfQuacker said:

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Finally kicked my fever as of yesterday, which was ongoing since 3/18. Still clearing some crap from my lungs. Test results from 3/22 still not back, but there's zero doubt I've had Covid 19. It's no joke folks - I started getting a little scared after about day 8-9 of constant fever and zero energy, and feeling like I was hit by a bus.

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What did your fever stay around? Was it high like some have reported or low? Glad you're on the better side of things now

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Generally as low as 100.2 in the mornings, and then usually 101-102.5 in the evenings.

WolfQuacker said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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WolfQuacker said:

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Finally kicked my fever as of yesterday, which was ongoing since 3/18. Still clearing some crap from my lungs. Test results from 3/22 still not back, but there's zero doubt I've had Covid 19. It's no joke folks - I started getting a little scared after about day 8-9 of constant fever and zero energy, and feeling like I was hit by a bus.

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What did your fever stay around? Was it high like some have reported or low? Glad you're on the better side of things now

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Generally as low as 100.2 in the mornings, and then usually 101-102.5 in the evenings.

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Good info to know from someone who has experienced it first hand. I've had a "fever" for a few days now of 99-99.5 but never over 99.5. Thinking mine is allergies or just a little bug. No coughing outside of the normal allergy coughing and sneezing a lot lol. Glad you're getting better and thanks for the info.

WolfQuacker said:

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Finally kicked my fever as of yesterday, which was ongoing since 3/18. Still clearing some crap from my lungs. Test results from 3/22 still not back, but there's zero doubt I've had Covid 19. It's no joke folks - I started getting a little scared after about day 8-9 of constant fever and zero energy, and feeling like I was hit by a bus.

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Insane that you are having to wait over a week for test results. Glad you seem to be on the far side of the worst and hope for continued recovery!!

The State really needs to do a better job with getting these testing results pushed through, the volume and time of testing is unacceptable.

Wayland said:

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Another interesting charting site for US States. Acknowledges the data is dirty but at least shows some reference graphs.

https://www.uscovidtrends.com/index.html

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Thanks for posting the link. There is a button you can click on for the graphs, to view them plotted in log format instead of the more linear plot. I would encourage people to look at the graphs in this way. Logarithmic scales have the advantage of showing the data as percent of change. As such, it will give you an indication as to whether the data is increasing or decreasing. For the Coronavirus graphs, I prefer this view, since it tells me if growth is increasing or slowing. The somewhat good news appears to be that increases in the growth of both cases and deaths seems to be slowing. This is much harder to see when you are looking at the data in a linear format.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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Another interesting charting site for US States. Acknowledges the data is dirty but at least shows some reference graphs.

https://www.uscovidtrends.com/index.html

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Thanks for posting the length. There is a button you can click on for the graphs, to view them plotted in log format instead of the more linear plot. I would encourage people to look at the graphs in this way. Logarithmic scales have the advantage of showing the data as percent of change. As such, it will give you an indication as to whether the data is increasing or decreasing. For the Coronavirus graphs, I prefer this view, since it tells me if growth is increasing or slowing. The somewhat good news appears to be that increases in the growth of both cases and deaths seems to be slowing. This is much harder to see when you are looking at the data in a linear format.

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Just found that on worldometers that you can see it in logarithmic form because I read your post. Thanks!

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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Another interesting charting site for US States. Acknowledges the data is dirty but at least shows some reference graphs.

https://www.uscovidtrends.com/index.html

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Thanks for posting the length. There is a button you can click on for the graphs, to view them plotted in log format instead of the more linear plot. I would encourage people to look at the graphs in this way. Logarithmic scales have the advantage of showing the data as percent of change. As such, it will give you an indication as to whether the data is increasing or decreasing. For the Coronavirus graphs, I prefer this view, since it tells me if growth is increasing or slowing. The somewhat good news appears to be that increases in the growth of both cases and deaths seems to be slowing. This is much harder to see when you are looking at the data in a linear format.

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Ya, this was one of the first sites that I have found that also was providing companion log graphs, so wanted to pass it along since I found it interesting.

Johns Hopkins COVID-19 global cases

Still a lots of lack in testing but if you zoom in on the map you see Wilson, Nashville, Durham, Shawtown, west of Pittsboro, Hillsborough, Franklinton, Asheboro.... are included.

If I just saw the graph correctly, Italy's numbers are going down which is a great thing. I honestly feel like if we could just get a handle on NY, things would start going much better. With that said, the number of new cases and deaths went up today from yesterday so we still have to sit back and wait for that climb to stop. NY makes the numbers look worse then they are but hopefully things will change soon up that way.

1.1 million test have been performed at this time. Wish that number was 5x that.

Italy's new cases have been going down the last 8-10 days. They are trending downward.

packgrad said:

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Italy's new cases have been going down the last 8-10 days. They are trending downward.

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New cases have actually gone down 3 days in a row but regardless, that's a good sign for them

Regardless???

Really good to hear from Dr. Berx and Dr. Fauci so much in this press conference. Trump had to jump in and say what about this or that as he usually does but for the most part, so far, it's been a good press conference. Such a totally different feeling when Dr. Berx and Dr. Fauci do the majority of the talking and explaining. Straight forward, to the point, educated and informed.

packgrad said:

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Yes, the graph for Italy shows the new cases down the past 3 days.

Oh, ok. I thought you were unsure if you had read the graph correctly. Yes, they have been trending downward since their peak over a week ago.

wilmwolf80 said:

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In my job, I come in contact with a lot of people in a lot of places every day. I try always, and in particular during flu season, to avoid shaking hands and things like that, and using sanitizer if I do. Reading about this thing, I don't know if there are any precautions we can really take that will do anything. I can't bunker down in my house until it's over, I have to continue to work, so at this point I'm just keeping a watchful eye on information as it comes out.

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During the press conference, Dr. Birx said the best thing we all can do is practice social (I prefer physical) distancing of 6 feet or more. If you get close than this, you and the people you deal with are at risk. She said this is the single best thing we can do to control the spread.

Yep - social distancing seems to be making a significant difference in most places.

"Expert" models are based on a lot of guesswork.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Yes, that is normal and expected, especially when there is incomplete data. That's why we have confidence intervals.

IseWolf22 said:

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Yes, that is normal and expected, especially when there is incomplete data. That's why we have confidence intervals.

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It will be interesting see how accurate their guessing confidence intervals end up.

packgrad said:

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"Expert" models are based on a lot of guesswork.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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If you watched the press conference yesterday, it was repeated multiple times that the models would be updated almost daily and new data was put into the models each day.

Ok?????

Changes nothing about the article.

I'm ok with the models and projections adjusting as more data comes in. That's science. The thing I don't quite get is why folks are making concrete decisions for so far in the future with the models ever changing. I don't understand the purpose of extending lock downs until the end of April, May, or even June in places right now. Why put a hard and fast date on it? Why not just say, until further notice, or we'll evaluate again in two weeks. I don't see the harm in that.

Completely agree.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I'm ok with the models and projections adjusting as more data comes in. That's science. The thing I don't quite get is why folks are making concrete decisions for so far in the future with the models ever changing. I don't understand the purpose of extending lock downs until the end of April, May, or even June in places right now. Why put a hard and fast date on it? Why not just say, until further notice, or we'll evaluate again in two weeks. I don't see the harm in that.

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Just a guess but I feel like the majority of people do better with a concrete "deadline" or concrete "goal" to work towards. I feel like if they came out and said u til further notice or something to that affect, it could cause people to panic more then they already are, simply because they don't have anything somewhat concrete to work towards. Again, just my opinion.

I can see that. I do think some people are going to panic no matter what you do. I guess I just feel that if you give people hope that it might be better than expected, it would calm some of the fears and stop the hoarding/shortages. Saying you'll reassess every two weeks at least keeps open the hope that in two weeks, it might be better. I look for positives in every situation. I see the numbers, and I see positives and hope for the best outcome, but not everyone is wired that way.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I'm ok with the models and projections adjusting as more data comes in. That's science. The thing I don't quite get is why folks are making concrete decisions for so far in the future with the models ever changing. I don't understand the purpose of extending lock downs until the end of April, May, or even June in places right now. Why put a hard and fast date on it? Why not just say, until further notice, or we'll evaluate again in two weeks. I don't see the harm in that.

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Agree - I heard Virginia has something in place until June 10th

That's just crazy.

Edit to add... I have heard that the governors can back the time down, but like you both have said, I'd prefer gradual steps, evaluate, move on.

https://apple.news/AS3sc6KddSR-j6JDM-Ryjog

Not shocking....but bs