Florida is now using the 45 minute test.

Glasswolf said:

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Went to the doctor. I'm good to go

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Great news!

Glasswolf said:

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Went to the doctor. I'm good to go

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Nice, brother!

Glasswolf said:

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Went to the doctor. I'm good to go

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Fantastic news! So happy for you.

Hearing reports today that the expected peak of deaths is supposed to happen around April 15th. Is that for the country or just for places like NY who have the worst situations right now?

Covid19.healthdata.org has peaks in it.

April 15 is nationwide peak of hospital use and fail deaths (15 days).

23 days till NC peak, 9 days till NY resource peak, 10 days till daily death peak.

How can the expected NC peak be in 23 days? Shouldn't our peak happen sooner than that as our state has implemented the stay at home order?

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Hearing reports today that the expected peak of deaths is supposed to happen around April 15th. Is that for the country or just for places like NY who have the worst situations right now?

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It really depends on your source. According to this site:

Peak US - Yes, April 15th
Peak NC - April 22nd
Peak NY - April 10th

The state by state view is interesting. It looks like NY is going to have a very bad time for the next 2 weeks. NC seems to do OK.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Glasswolf said:

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Went to the doctor. I'm good to go

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Good for you.

Glasswolf said:

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Went to the doctor. I'm good to go

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Good news!

King Leary said:

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How can the expected NC peak be in 23 days? Shouldn't our peak happen sooner than that as our state has implemented the stay at home order?

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Just a guess but you still have people who are asymptomatic, who are spreading the disease and who will become sick in the next week or two.

packgrad said:

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New cases per day and new deaths both dropped yesterday. Hopefully the start of a trend.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Its always good to read the fine print on these graphs. The number of cases went up. The notes state the numbers would change because of problems with reporting in NY state. The deaths appear to have gone down but the cases did not.

Wonderful!

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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New cases per day and new deaths both dropped yesterday. Hopefully the start of a trend.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Its always good to read the fine print on these graphs. The number of cases went up. The notes state the numbers would change because of problems with reporting in NY state. The deaths appear to have gone down but the cases did not.

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I would assume cases continue to go up for a long time as they're testing more and more people, right? I wish there was a better measure against population or something that normalized for the number of tests?

The fine print changed between 3:55am and 2:48pm.

statefan91 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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packgrad said:

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New cases per day and new deaths both dropped yesterday. Hopefully the start of a trend.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Its always good to read the fine print on these graphs. The number of cases went up. The notes state the numbers would change because of problems with reporting in NY state. The deaths appear to have gone down but the cases did not.

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I would assume cases continue to go up for a long time as they're testing more and more people, right? I wish there was a better measure against population or something that normalized for the number of tests?

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There is..... IF you have widespread testing. If you can sample the population you have better data. But with most states only testing those who have symptoms and need medical attention, we are not able to test others to get a proper sample

IseWolf22 said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Hearing reports today that the expected peak of deaths is supposed to happen around April 15th. Is that for the country or just for places like NY who have the worst situations right now?

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It really depends on your source. According to this site:

Peak US - Yes, April 15th
Peak NC - April 22nd
Peak NY - April 10th

The state by state view is interesting. It looks like NY is going to have a very bad time for the next 2 weeks. NC seems to do OK.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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This site was kind of trash early on and had a lot of outdated data. They are doing a better job now of tracking some metrics, but still not catching 100% of data (I think they are behind on ICU beds available in NC for example).

But, at least they are starting to put in some effort now, so worth keeping an eye on.

Yeah I guess that's my point - I keep getting emails from Charlotte Observer about rising case counts and I'm just like "of course they're rising if they're only testing the people that have all the symptoms"

packgrad said:

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The fine print changed between 3:55am and 2:48pm.

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It was actually written under the charts at midnight that the numbers would be changing due to NY having troubles getting their numbers together. Regardless, you won't see a drop in number of cases for a while. Maybe you will see a drop in deaths but the numbers are still a couple weeks away from starring to drop.

It appears the test that determine COVID19 will be out and being used this week. If true, that would.be huge. The numbers are increasing, as expected, but the number of test is as well, at a pretty decent clip right now. Still not enough but much better. I will be interested in watching this week, each days numbers as compared to test completed. If by next Monday, we start seeing a little more leveling out, that would be a good sign.

Deaths and total cases up on March 30th

This is a 57 minute Youtube vid of questions and answers and it could save your life, your family and friends lives and mine. Watch it if you can! Keep your hands clean and don't touch you face!

This NY Doctor is calm and saving lives

Day one of the state wide shutdown. New Hanover county where I reside enacted a slightly more restrictive version of the governor's order. I would guess there were about 1/3 the normal cars on the road this morning in my area. Still lots of people out and about. Long lines at the Starbucks and Chickfil-A. As my business is an essential one, I'm continuing to work.

Healthcare worker here, I think Dr. Mike Varshavski does a really good job on explaining what's going on in the hospitals and actually just recently did a video with Dr. Fauci of where he was doing a Q and A with him.

Wayland said:

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3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

Side note . NC has gone from 550 ICU beds available early in the week to 793 now (up about 50 since yesterday)

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Yup. As a medic, it has been eerily quiet for the past few days. I've talked to ER physicians at Duke and Wakemed and they have converted any area with any beds and an Omnicell into COVID triage place. We're expecting major strain on the healthcare system in the next couple of weeks. I'll try to give y'all some more info about it!

Also I heard Florida has set up checkpoints in their state and are turning away people from NY apparently.

Starwolf said:

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Wayland said:

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3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

Side note . NC has gone from 550 ICU beds available early in the week to 793 now (up about 50 since yesterday)

---

Yup. As a medic, it has been eerily quiet for the past few days. I've talked to ER physicians at Duke and Wakemed and they have converted any area with any beds and an Omnicell into COVID triage place. We're expecting major strain on the healthcare system in the next couple of weeks. I'll try to give y'all some more info about it!

Also I heard Florida has set up checkpoints in their state and are turning away people from NY apparently.

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Florida has the best chance of being the next trainwreck.

I am tracking the daily actual deaths in NC, compared to one of the key models that lead to the shut-down extension on Sunday (3/29). Below are the total deaths projected by day for the next seven days. Currently, NC is tracking to the lower confidence limit of the curve.

Date, Actual Deaths, Lower Limit, Mean, Upper Limit
3/30, 9, 9, 9.835, 10,
3/31, , 12, 13.361, 14,
4/1, , 16, 17.899, 19,
4/2, , 20, 23.638, 26,
4/3, , 25, 30.827, 35,
4/4, , 31, 39.68, 47,
4/5, , 38, 50.465, 61

Of course, staying on the lower limits is good, since it means we could begin opening back up in mid-May (with lots more testing required). If we are on the upper side, opening up gets pushed to June. The curve of estimated deaths goes effectively flat on June 1, when looking at the mean deaths projection. It is effectively flat in mid-May when looking at the lower limit, which is why I suggest a mid-May opening up if NC stays on the lower limit.

You can see the curves yourself at the following link (used drop-down to see NC view): https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

^ it looks like that model is being updated daily as well. Sunday it was projecting NC deaths through 8/4 of ~2k, yesterday ~1.7k and today back up to ~2.5k.

acslater1344 said:

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^ it looks like that model is being updated daily as well. Sunday it was projecting NC deaths through 8/4 of ~2k, yesterday ~1.7k and today back up to ~2.5k.

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It is, but I decided to track it as of the day they made the decision to extend the lock-down to the end of April. I am interested in seeing how good the model did. They will definitely move the goalposts as new information comes in and hopefully, we will stay on the lower end of the model. The peak seems to have remained in the third week of April and flat-lining of total deaths in the mid-May to early June time-frame (depending on if you look at the lower versus mean projections).

Thanks for doing that. Very interested in the results.

acslater1344 said:

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^ it looks like that model is being updated daily as well. Sunday it was projecting NC deaths through 8/4 of ~2k, yesterday ~1.7k and today back up to ~2.5k.

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I'll also be interested in what flu deaths end up being too. Not that I mean I want David to track this as well.

The last 4 years I could find combine flu pneumonia

2017- 2076
2016- 1896
2015- 2116
2014- 1874

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/northcarolina/northcarolina.htm

Starwolf said:

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Wayland said:

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3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157

Side note . NC has gone from 550 ICU beds available early in the week to 793 now (up about 50 since yesterday)

---

Yup. As a medic, it has been eerily quiet for the past few days. I've talked to ER physicians at Duke and Wakemed and they have converted any area with any beds and an Omnicell into COVID triage place. We're expecting major strain on the healthcare system in the next couple of weeks. I'll try to give y'all some more info about it!

Also I heard Florida has set up checkpoints in their state and are turning away people from NY apparently.

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For my business we have folks all over the US, and TX and FL are not necessarily turning people away but making them self quarantine for 14 days at least as of yesterday. Both if you're driving in or flying in. We've had employees stopped as they got off the plane from FL told that and employees driving from LA to TX/FL told that.