Can't get your link to work for me
Wayland said:
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204
About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.
We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!
And the healthdata site has NC at 12. But I'll take the NC DHHS numbers over media numbers. Those deaths may likely be added to the official numbers over time. WRAL has consistently been adding a couple deaths to their running total over what NC DHHS has reported. More deaths equal more eyes.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204
About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.
We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!
According to worldometers, deaths are at 10 now
PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Wayland said:And the healthdata site has NC at 12. But I'll take the NC DHHS numbers over media numbers. Those deaths may likely be added to the official numbers over time. WRAL has consistently been adding a couple deaths to their running total over what NC DHHS has reported. More deaths equal more eyes.RunsWithWolves26 said:Wayland said:
3/31/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1,498
NC Deaths**
8
Currently Hospitalized
157
4/1/2020 Morning DHHS update
NC Cases*
1584
NC Deaths**
9
Currently Hospitalized
204
About 3000 tests were done in NC in yesterdays numbers, with only about 90 positives. Great numbers.
We are also up to 856 ICU beds empty. An increase of 300 this week!
According to worldometers, deaths are at 10 now
I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
This article isn't specific to NC, but it highlights the issue with the testing backlog.acslater1344 said:
I wish NC would put out a number of "pending tests" as we know from our own posters that it takes several days to get results back. Do we know if the "completed tests" figure includes those pending tests? Seems like a really important piece of the puzzle here. If the 26.2k completed tests doesn't include pending results, it'd be great to have at least an idea of how large the testing backlog is.
In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.ciscopack said:I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Daviewolf83 said:In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.ciscopack said:I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.
Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.
I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):
" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."
There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.
There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.
It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.
It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.ciscopack said:Daviewolf83 said:In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.ciscopack said:I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.
Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.
I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):
" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."
There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.
There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.
King Leary said:
I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.
My understanding is that total deaths from the start to the end of the "curve". So that would be over a span going into summer/ fall I guess. The peak is supposed to be in 2 weeks which is the most number of deaths in a day. The rate of death/day is increasing. They hope that by mid-April the death rate per day will start to decrease. You could days coming up where you have several thousand deaths/ day.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
It is interesting -- out of the big population states, seems NC is disproportionally low in terms of cases (a good thing). W/o checking, I"m assuming our biggest cities are still very suburban driven, and not high density cities like in NE or have had major events like Mardi Gras?King Leary said:
I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Is anyone shocked by this? There's no telling how many cases/deaths they've had.PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
ncsualum05 said:My understanding is that total deaths from the start to the end of the "curve". So that would be over a span going into summer/ fall I guess. The peak is supposed to be in 2 weeks which is the most number of deaths in a day. The rate of death/day is increasing. They hope that by mid-April the death rate per day will start to decrease. You could days coming up where you have several thousand deaths/ day.RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
wilmwolf80 said:
All sorts of deaths could potentially drop due to the social distancing measures being taken. I don't think it's outside the scope of the thread to talk about that. I've seen data that suggests hospitalizations and deaths from the flu may be down as a result of this. When it's all over it will be interesting to see those numbers
The trade war was a great idea and going so well until.....yea maybe we shouldn't f*** with China?Steve Williams said:
Man, the cynical, conspiracy theory, black helicopter side of me can't help but at least ponder the possibility this entire virus, ensuing chaos and impending economic collapse was concocted in a Chinese government office somewhere.
Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?Daviewolf83 said:Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
statefan91 said:Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?Daviewolf83 said:Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
I was just looking through the pictures....on Jan, 24, they are going to build a 1000 bed hospital and they have 27 excavators and 6 bulldozers in the picture......the excavators are so close they don't have to move. They were wearing masks too. Group wearing masks on the 23rd, security spraying alcohol, people at the market with masks. The video I saw...everyone was wearing masks and people were checking temperatures with those no touch therms. near the forehead. 1st case in US Jan. 21. Medical staff in hazmat suits and with goggles and gloves on Jan. 17......I saw that on video too....some of the first from Jan. 11-17 going to hospital.ciscopack said:It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.ciscopack said:Daviewolf83 said:In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.ciscopack said:I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.
Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.
I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):
" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."
There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.
There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.
I saw it in video but here are several stills.... (Jan. 27)
click the arrow
Maybe if we began manufacturing healthcare supplies back in January instead of waiting until now we would be in a little better shape, just a thought! I'm not in the blame China camp, and that's not saying they didn't withhold information. We can't tout ourselves as the biggest baddest country on earth, beat on our mighty chest, and then blame another country when things go south.ciscopack said:I was just looking through the pictures....on Jan, 24, they are going to build a 1000 bed hospital and they have 27 excavators and 6 bulldozers in the picture......the excavators are so close they don't have to move. They were wearing masks too. Group wearing masks on the 23rd, security spraying alcohol, people at the market with masks. The video I saw...everyone was wearing masks and people were checking temperatures with those no touch therms. near the forehead. 1st case in US Jan. 21. Medical staff in hazmat suits and with goggles and gloves on Jan. 17......I saw that on video too....some of the first from Jan. 11-17 going to hospital.ciscopack said:It was late January when I saw it on the news...not early Jan.ciscopack said:Daviewolf83 said:In early January, the data indicated it was a SARS like outbreak in China. It had not gotten to South Korea yet. Even in China, the Chinese New Year went on as normal. It was while they were out of the offices on vacation during this time that the Chinese government started to lock things down. This was in late January/early February (that's the period of Chinese New Year). I know this very well, since I work for a Chinese-based company and speak with people in China almost daily. During Chinese New Year, the streets in China were far from empty. In most places in China, celebrations for the New Year went on as normal.ciscopack said:I don't doubt they concealed information at all.Steve Videtich said:PossumJenkins said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Sorry...try this
Let me put on my shocked face!
I remember sitting in my cousin's man cave with 2 TVs in January as we soaked a few brews. The news was on and showing empty streets in China and S. Korea. In other places the picture showed EVERYONE in view and they all had masks on and many had gloves and glasses. In other views they showed guys with backpack sprayers dressed in hazmat and they were spraying everything......everything inc. inside buses and trains. The pictures were telling the story. I told my cousin when it gets here and it will get here, we will not be able to hang with anything like that. Those people do stuff like that like machines. We're to carefree to buckle down with a predicted Pandemic. Now most of us are doing fairly well and some are not. That does not work as well for sure!
Following the Chinese New Year holiday (where people spread out throughout China on vacation), the government decided to extend business shutdowns by one to two weeks (depending on the area of the country) as a way to contain the growing virus. People in our company were working from home (like I have been doing for over 3 weeks) during this period and our manufacturing facilities were shutdown briefly. Our factories in China started to open back up in mid to late February with small staffs and continued to ramp up to full production in March.
Starting in late January, any employee traveling from China was required to quarantine at home or in a hotel for two weeks, before they were allowed to come to the office. This policy was instituted a few days prior to President Trump issuing a travel ban for people coming from China. Two and a half weeks ago, our company began shutting down the offices here in the US, many days before any "stay-at-home" policies from the government were instituted. Only necessary personnel (a very small number) were allowed to go to the office. My last day in the office was on March 10.
I believe the following quote from Dr. Birx (from yesterday's press briefing) is very interesting with regards to timing of the government actions. When asked about the models leading to a lock-down, she said the following (I bolded the important portion):
" And these weren't in the models and I think when you talk about could we have known something different. I think all of us, I mean I was overseas when this happened in Africa and I think when you look at the China data originally and you said, "Oh, well there's 80 million people or 20 million people in Wuhan and 80 million people in Hebei and they come up with a number of 50,000 you start thinking of this more like SARS than you do this kind of global pandemic."
There will be a lot of revisionist history in the coming days and weeks, as people look for someone to blame. I believe the US hoped to contain the spread of the virus to the US by instituting the travel ban in late January and in actuality, it probably helped. This was done immediately after the WHO finally warned that the virus had the potential to be a global pandemic. Up to this point, the WHO had down-played the risk - likely due to the bad data they were getting (see my first comment). I think alarm bells really started to go off in early March, when the dire reports started to come in from Europe.
There will be time when this is over to look back on what we knew, did not know, what we could have done, and what we did not do (based on data). The time to do this is not when you are in the middle of the crisis. The focus and energy at this time should be solely on getting control of the virus and minimizing deaths as much as possible. When we are able to take a breath and step back (likely 6 months or more), it will be appropriate to do a lessons-learned study of what we should have done. I have done this for many, many years in business. After every major product launch or launch of a new IT system, we hold lessons-learned sessions to identify what went well and what did not go well. For those things that did not go well, we develop action plans to try to mitigate those issues in the future. This is exactly what the US should do, after this is all behind us.
I saw it in video but here are several stills.... (Jan. 27)
click the arrow
I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.statefan91 said:Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?Daviewolf83 said:Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
ciscopack said:I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.statefan91 said:Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?Daviewolf83 said:Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
My brother has a place in Hatteras; no one can get on the island without proving ownership there. I know the locals are suffering. They live off tourists and most never go out to eat when things are doing well.RunsWithWolves26 said:ciscopack said:I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.statefan91 said:Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?Daviewolf83 said:Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.Ground_Chuck said:RunsWithWolves26 said:
Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??
Deaths don't end at the peak.
Seeing a lot of that at the beaches. It's like a ghost town down there right now.