Looks like cases and deaths are getting close to yesterday's numbers. Will be interested to see where they end up at. Yesterday was 3,000 more cases and close to 400 more deaths then the day before. Don't want to see that continuing to happen.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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King Leary said:

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I think you're going to see NC come out of this relatively unscathed. Factor in reduced automobile deaths and we will probably be positive on deaths.

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Auto deaths ain't got **** to do with this thread or this virus. If you want to keep posting that, start another thread. Has ZERO to do with this.

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NM

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??

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Deaths don't end at the peak.

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You don't say?!?! As I said, if I heard right. The response before yours was actually very helpful.

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You didn't seem to have a grasp on it in your original post.

Why else would you take total deaths and divide by days till peak and asked how can we possibly average that number?

Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??

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Deaths don't end at the peak.

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You don't say?!?! As I said, if I heard right. The response before yours was actually very helpful.

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You didn't seem to have a grasp on it in your original post.

Why else would you take total deaths and divide by days till peak and asked how can we possibly average that number?

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I ask if my math was right. My understanding was that the total deaths would be that by April 15th which is why I ask the question that I ask. As was explained, I was misunderstanding what was said and the poster above you, clarified that for me, which was a huge help and huge relief.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??

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Deaths don't end at the peak.

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You don't say?!?! As I said, if I heard right. The response before yours was actually very helpful.

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You didn't seem to have a grasp on it in your original post.

Why else would you take total deaths and divide by days till peak and asked how can we possibly average that number?

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I ask if my math was right. My understanding was that the total deaths would be that by April 15th which is why I ask the question that I ask. As was explained, I was misunderstanding what was said and the poster above you, clarified that for me, which was a huge help and huge relief.

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You thought total deaths would be reached by peak. I succinctly replied that deaths don't end at peak. Sorry you didn't find by response helpful. Glad another was able to help.

Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??

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Deaths don't end at the peak.

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You don't say?!?! As I said, if I heard right. The response before yours was actually very helpful.

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You didn't seem to have a grasp on it in your original post.

Why else would you take total deaths and divide by days till peak and asked how can we possibly average that number?

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I ask if my math was right. My understanding was that the total deaths would be that by April 15th which is why I ask the question that I ask. As was explained, I was misunderstanding what was said and the poster above you, clarified that for me, which was a huge help and huge relief.

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You thought total deaths would be reached by peak. I succinctly replied that deaths don't end at peak. Sorry you didn't find by response helpful. Glad another was able to help.

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Im just glad I misunderstood. Can't even begin to imagine what that death total would have done mentally to people!

ciscopack said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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ciscopack said:

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statefan91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Ground_Chuck said:

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RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Someone please check my math. If I heard right yesterday, they said it was possible that it was POSSIBLE 200,000 people could die from this by its peak around April 15th. If that is correct, that would mean 13,000 would have to die per day from now until April 15th. That can't be right, can it??

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Deaths don't end at the peak.

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Correct, it is 200,000 in total, not by the time of the peak. They keep saying by first of August, but when I look at the models, most go flat the first of July. Hopefully, we will be on the lower side of the curve and come out below 100,000 deaths. The mean in the model I am watching is 93,000 deaths and the curve goes fairly flat in mid-June.

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Shelter-in-place until June is going to be rough. Do you anticipate that's what it will take or do you foresee a point where things can realistically start opening back up?

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I don't know but I want to be living....Job#1. Everyone x 4 at the condo has cancelled for April, 3 of 4 booked cancelled for May and the 4th has been in touch and a lady who has rented 3 times from me cancelled for the 2nd week of June.

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Seeing a lot of that at the beaches. It's like a ghost town down there right now.

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My brother has a place in Hatteras; no one can get on the island without proving ownership there. I know the locals are suffering. They live off tourists and most never go out to eat when things are doing well.

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My family trip to IoP for Easter week was cancelled -- the island shut down for rentals thru at least end of April. I hate it (I would have been content to social distance myself from the world on the back porch overlooking the waves), but I understand the potential risks.
But the local economy....sheesh, you know it kills them

Here's some key dates that I find interesting:

1. December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province.
2. On January 7, 2020, Chinese health authorities confirmed that this cluster was associated with a novel coronavirus.
3. China reports its first coronavirus death. I suspect this was a lie.
4. On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever.
5. January 20, Japan, South Korea and Thailand report their first cases of coronavirus.
6. January 23, Chinese authorities close of Wuhan - allowing no travel to or from the city. Other parts of the country were not affected.
6. As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries. Also, on this date the WHO declared a global health emergency.
7. On January 31, President Trump issues travel "restrictions" on people traveling from China. It temporarily barred entry by foreign nationals who had traveled in China within the previous 14 days, with exceptions for the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Americans returning from China were allowed back after enhanced screening at select ports of entry and for 14 days afterward.
8. February 2, the first death was reported outside of China - a 44 year old man in the Phillipines.
9. February 5, a cruise ship is quarantined in Japan.
10. February 7, one of the doctors who tried to raise alarms dies. At one point, he was reprimanded and he was forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor.
11. February 13, they reported an additional 14,000 cases in Hubei province.
12. February 14, the first death in France is reported. This was an 80-year old Chinese tourist.
13. February 19, the passengers on the quarantined cruise ship are allowed to leave the ship.
14. February 21, at least 200 cases in South Korea, many associated with a secretive church are found to have the virus. This is when South Korea shut down thousands of kindergartens, nursing homes and community centers, and put a stop to political rallies in Seoul. On this same date, a case was reported in Iran, but no source of the infection was provided.
15. February 23, Italy saw a major surge in cases. As has been reported, much of the surge was due the Chinese textile workers returning to Italy from China. The epicenter in Italy was originally around Milan, which makes sense, given the number of Chinese nationals living in this area in support of the textile industry.
16. February 24, President Trump asks Congress for $1.25 Billion to help fight the virus. Also, on this date Iran emerges as another virus hotspot.
17. February 26, Brazil reports its first coronavirus case.
18. February 27, the number of cases in Europe spikes.
19. February 29, President Trump extended travel restrictions to Iran. Also on this date, America sees its first coronavirus death.
20. March 3, the US begins widespread coronavirus testing.
21. March 11, President Trump extends travel restrictions to continental Europe.
22. March 13, President Trump declares a national emergency.
23. March 15, the CDC recommends no meetings of 50 or more people.
24. March 16, President Trump recommends limiting meeting to no more than 10 people at most. Also, on this date NYC announces closure of all its schools.
25. March 17, France issues a nationwide lockdown.
26. March 21, companies in the US begin producing medical supplies.
27. March 26, UK is put on a nationwide lockdown. Also, on this date the US leads the world with the most coronavirus cases.
28. March 27, President Trump signs the coronavirus stimulus bill.
29. March 29, President Trump extends the advisory to stay at home through the end of April.

Really good info! Thanks for taking the time to do it!

John Roberts from fox news just ask a very good question. What happens to those that don't have insurance and get COVID19. Pence said it would be taken care of but never fully addressed the question. That is a huge problem with this virus. I believe me and Statefan had this discussion many pages back and I will say, he was dead on right about this very topic. I was under the impression some insurance companies would be covering that. I am now under the impression that they will not be. That's a problem.

Cases are up compared to yesterday and as of right now, deaths are about 175 less

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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John Roberts from fox news just ask a very good question. What happens to those that don't have insurance and get COVID19. Pence said it would be taken care of but never fully addressed the question. That is a huge problem with this virus. I believe me and Statefan had this discussion many pages back and I will say, he was dead on right about this very topic. I was under the impression some insurance companies would be covering that. I am now under the impression that they will not be. That's a problem.

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On a related note

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/31/trump-obamacare-coronavirus-157788

Apparently we have our first case in Chowan County

Japan, along with USA administration, considers the WHO nothing more than a propaganda firm for China after pandemic.

Total deaths over 1,000 today.

packgrad said:

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Japan, along with USA administration, considers the WHO nothing more than a propaganda firm for China after pandemic.

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I think that's kinda fair at this point

cowboypack02 said:

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packgrad said:

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Japan, along with USA administration, considers the WHO nothing more than a propaganda firm for China after pandemic.

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I think that's kinda fair at this point

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Does this matter at this point? Does it impact us at all?

Yes. They misrepresented and continue to misrepresent the situation.

Ground_Chuck said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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packgrad said:

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Japan, along with USA administration, considers the WHO nothing more than a propaganda firm for China after pandemic.

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I think that's kinda fair at this point

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Does this matter at this point? Does it impact us at all?

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Absolutely. If the World Health Organization is not doing their job correctly then it absolutely impacts us

packgrad said:

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Yes. They misrepresented and continue to misrepresent the situation.

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Misrepresent the situation within the US?

The role of the WHO

https://www.who.int/about/role/en/

packgrad said:

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The role of the WHO

https://www.who.int/about/role/en/

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I used who the WHO and what they do. I'm just not sure how they are impacting the situation in the US.

Respectfully, I don't think you do understand their role. if you are saying that it does not matter that they are a propaganda bullhorn for China.

Maybe you're just thread policing though. Who knows what is allowed to talk about on this thread anymore? Can't talk about deaths as they are related to traffic accidents, but can talk about condo rentals. The world health organization is now irrelevant, but early in the thread they were who we are supposed to listen to. Who knows?

Looks like the the field hospitals in NYC are seeing their first COVID19 patients. I can only hope the peak gets here sooner then expected and it isn't near as bad as the predictions say it could be.

packgrad said:

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Respectfully, I don't think you do understand their role. if you are saying that it does not matter that they are a propaganda bullhorn for China.

Maybe you're just thread policing though. Who knows what is allowed to talk about on this thread anymore? Can't talk about deaths as they are related to traffic accidents, but can talk about condo rentals. The world health organization is now irrelevant, but early in the thread they were who we are supposed to listen to. Who knows?

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Maybe I don't understand their role, or maybe I don't understand your interpretation of their role.

I agree with your last comment. They are irrelevant now to US decisions. That was the point I was kind of getting at. Does it matter what the WHO is saying now?

packgrad said:

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Yes. They misrepresented and continue to misrepresent the situation.

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The situation in the US or are you speaking specifically of the situation in China.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Total deaths over 1,000 today.

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We did hit 1,000 deaths in a single day yesterday and this is very much in line with the model predictions. When I look at the graph of total deaths (currently over 5,000) and extrapolate out a few days, it appears the number of total deaths will double to 10,000 over the weekend. This is a number people need to prepare themselves for, along with another doubling of that number approximately four days later (to roughly 20,000).

With this said, I do see some small signs that do give me some encouragement. While the number of deaths is on a trajectory to double every 3 to 4 days, the logarithmic curve for new cases appears to curving which means the percentage growth in new cases is starting to slow and approach a leveling off. It appears it could roughly level off toward the end of the weekend or early next week. I believe this is mostly attributable to the physical (I don't like the term social) distancing measures in place through most of the country. If these distancing measures continue, I am certain we will begin to see a decrease in the rate of new cases in about a week to a week and a half (fifteen days from the peak).

Unfortunately, deaths are a lagging indicator in the tracking of the virus. Even if new cases do start to level off or decline, deaths will likely lag this indicator by 10 to 14 days. Given a gradual reduction in new cases (based on the latest model projections and curves), I expect it will be end of April before we begin to see the rate of deaths start to level off and beginning to decline. As such, I believe the physical distancing measures will need to be in effect until mid-May at best.

I am optimistic that starting in mid to late May, some of the extreme physical distancing measures we are currently experiencing will begin to be loosened. We will still need to practice physical distancing measures when we are out and likely the wearing of face-masks will be strongly encouraged. I also believe that in late June to early July, things such as colleges can begin to open back up, gyms could begin opening, and the economy return to some levels approaching normal. Most the models I look at show total deaths leveling off in late June/early July.

Pense saying things could start improving by memorial day. Dang!

I noticed the total deaths went up by 3,000-4,000 a day each of the past 2 days. Hoping to see that total increase each day decline soon. For some reason, j don't see total cases leveling off until around next weekend. Sure hope I am wrong

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Pense saying things could start improving by memorial day. Dang!

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If by "improving" he means we are on the downhill side of the daily number of deaths curve, the daily new cases curve is starting to flatten toward zero, and business are starting to reopen, I would agree with this assessment.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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I noticed the total deaths went up by 3,000-4,000 a day each of the past 2 days. Hoping to see that total increase each day decline soon. For some reason, j don't see total cases leveling off until around next weekend. Sure hope I am wrong

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Did you mean cases and not deaths? I am not seeing total deaths increasing by 3-4,000 a day. As you pointed out and as confirmed in the Worldometer tracking, new deaths increased by 1,049 yesterday.

What are the chances I will be able to go to my honeymoon in Jamaica at the end of May?

metcalfmafia said:

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What are the chances I will be able to go to my honeymoon in Jamaica at the end of May?

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By end of May - unlikely would be my guess. If you said late June, you might have a small chance and by late July, I would say a good chance you could go.

6.6 million new unemployment claims...not sure it matters if it's late April, mid May or whenever. There's not going to be anything to come back to...

PossumJenkins said:

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6.6 million new unemployment claims...not sure it matters if it's late April, mid May or whenever. There's not going to be anything to come back to...

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Was coming here to post that - there has to be a balance struck earlier than end of May. We added 3MM jobless claims to the already record 3MM last week. I know it will slow down but 10MM+ unemployment doesn't seem like a stretch at this point.