Wayland said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Wayland said:

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Cooper feeling heat?

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I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

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I knew he was being painted into a corner with the gym thing, I was curious (and still am) at how he will react.

Now, either way he looks weak and 'not following his science'. What will his new arbitrary rules be?

Does anything have to do with football and the Panthers pressuring ole Coop?

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I disagree with you to some degree here. We are seeing sustained leveling and decline, save the spike from colleges, across most metrics. Hospitalizations are at their lowest in a couple months, positivity had been trending down solidly, etc. I feel like there is a clear difference in our numbers now vs. when the mask mandate was put into effect but that's off the top of my head.

I think he's probably feeling some heat with the Federal unemployment no longer supplementing the State unemployment. I think that combined with improving numbers has made it a clear story to open additional things up that have been closed up until this point. Personally I'm keeping my fingers crossed for movie theaters...

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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statefan91 said:

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Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up

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The daily percent is mostly a factor of the weekend. Works itself out.

Overall COVID Hospitalizations/COVID ICU continue the slow decline.

But an interesting stat today.

Since COVID ICU has been reported (6/4/20), the COVID ICU population makes up its lowest percent of total COVID hospitalizations with 26.4% Even if overall hospitalizations are slower to decline, the fact that less of them are ICU cases is a positive.

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Decreasing ICU census should be reflected in declining deaths. The following graph shows deaths by date of death versus the daily ICU census. I have included 7-day rolling average trend lines, since the hospital reporting percentages have such daily variation. The fit of these two data points is not good (statistically speaking). It seems there is a lag in deaths from the daily reported ICU census, based on the difference the timing of the curve peaks. If you assume the patients with the worst prospects are in ICU, you could expect them to more closely align.

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My question surrounding things like this is LTC and extraordinary measures. I have seen a better break down of this in some European countries where a lot of the LTC deaths never made it to the ICU.

Those deaths from nursing home patients that are already super frail are never going to really show in the ICU numbers. It is how (besides never ever being able to recover from COVID) that Massachusetts continues to have ~15 deaths a day despite a total ICU census of 60. If all those cases filtered through the ICU, that would be clearing it out every 4 days. Which obviously they don't, so that must mean a lot of these LTC cases never make it that far.

That being said, outside of that, declining ICU is a positive and hopefully leads to a decline in the death curve outside for the general population.

Everpack said:

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How's everyone's kids doing with their school? Our county has started the year all virtual. Thanks to some nerd who hit our county school system with a ransom ware attack last week on the official first day, today was finally the first true day of instruction. My wife teaches 4th grade and is expected to do her virtual teaching from her classroom. We've got a 6th grader and a 2nd grader. 6th grader hit the ground running because technology is second nature to her. The 2nd grader has been in tears most of the day in my wife's classroom because she has no idea what to do or how to do it, and my teacher wife has to be a teacher to her 21 virtual 4th graders instead of helping out our lost 2nd grader. 511 total cases of the virus in my county of about 60,000 people. 25 deaths that to my knowledge all came out of one LTC facility. Following the science is a winning formula.

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Honestly, last week went better than expected for my middle schooler (at a charter school). I still want him back and in person, but his school has done a pretty good job breaking down the day into class periods and the teachers are doing a MUCH better job this fall with being prepared and holding ACTUAL classes.

Everpack said:

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How's everyone's kids doing with their school? Our county has started the year all virtual. Thanks to some nerd who hit our county school system with a ransom ware attack last week on the official first day, today was finally the first true day of instruction. My wife teaches 4th grade and is expected to do her virtual teaching from her classroom. We've got a 6th grader and a 2nd grader. 6th grader hit the ground running because technology is second nature to her. The 2nd grader has been in tears most of the day in my wife's classroom because she has no idea what to do or how to do it, and my teacher wife has to be a teacher to her 21 virtual 4th graders instead of helping out our lost 2nd grader. 511 total cases of the virus in my county of about 60,000 people. 25 deaths that to my knowledge all came out of one LTC facility. Following the science is a winning formula.

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I feel for your family with a 6th and 2nd grader, I can't imagine while you're trying to both be productive and work as well.

I have a PreK child who's signed up for Charlotte Mecklenburg Schools (CMS) PreK. We have gotten set up on Canvas and ClassPass and all that, but it's PreK. We are attending if there are any days he stays home from daycare, otherwise just e-mailing the teacher to tell her what he did that day in daycare or at home that was academic in nature. That's about all they expect at this point.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Wayland said:

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Cooper feeling heat?

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I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

---

I knew he was being painted into a corner with the gym thing, I was curious (and still am) at how he will react.

Now, either way he looks weak and 'not following his science'. What will his new arbitrary rules be?

Does anything have to do with football and the Panthers pressuring ole Coop?

---

The news I am hearing on fans at football games is not good at the moment. It could change, but I received some recent news that no fans will be allowed at games in September and this includes the parents of college football players. As you can imagine, parents (I am one of them) are not real happy about our sons playing a game with a some risk of serious injury and we are not allowed to be in attendance.

From a science standpoint, I do not know how you can justify allowing more than 1,000 people at one time in a Walmart, but you can not allow 1,000 parents to sit in a 30,000-50,000+ seat stadium. In the stadium, we can easily social distance and wear a mask. Additionally, the stadiums are outside, where ventilation is much better than any indoor situation (like shopping at Walmart). I think it has more to do with politics and optics than it does anything approaching science.

By the way, UNC had a football team scrimmage this past weekend as they prepare for their season and at the scrimmage, parents of players were allowed to attend. I have not been told that Governor Cooper gave them permission to go against the Phase 2 guidelines for the scrimmage.

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That is not a good look if parents aren't able to attend regular games. Again, all arbitrary.

I hope that it gets cleared up soon so that you can get to the games and watch your kid play.

Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Wayland said:

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Cooper feeling heat?

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I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

---

I knew he was being painted into a corner with the gym thing, I was curious (and still am) at how he will react.

Now, either way he looks weak and 'not following his science'. What will his new arbitrary rules be?

Does anything have to do with football and the Panthers pressuring ole Coop?

---

The news I am hearing on fans at football games is not good at the moment. It could change, but I received some recent news that no fans will be allowed at games in September and this includes the parents of college football players. As you can imagine, parents (I am one of them) are not real happy about our sons playing a game with a some risk of serious injury and we are not allowed to be in attendance.

From a science standpoint, I do not know how you can justify allowing more than 1,000 people at one time in a Walmart, but you can not allow 1,000 parents to sit in a 30,000-50,000+ seat stadium. In the stadium, we can easily social distance and wear a mask. Additionally, the stadiums are outside, where ventilation is much better than any indoor situation (like shopping at Walmart). I think it has more to do with politics and optics than it does anything approaching science.

By the way, UNC had a football team scrimmage this past weekend as they prepare for their season and at the scrimmage, parents of players were allowed to attend. I have not been told that Governor Cooper gave them permission to go against the Phase 2 guidelines for the scrimmage.

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That is not a good look if parents aren't able to attend regular games. Again, all arbitrary.

I hope that it gets cleared up soon so that you can get to the games and watch your kid play.

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We are considering many options. We have three players whose parents are doctors and a few others whose parents are lawyers. This should give you an idea of the discussions we are having. We are also involving the parents at a few of the other schools in NC.

By the way, the Panthers just announced no fans at their first game. I knew it was coming, based on the info I got over the weekend.

I don't disagree that the "science" they've employed has been challenging to nail down, especially with the FOIA lawsuits going on currently.

PackBacker07 said:

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So basically once a group decides they are done with the order, gives Cooper a middle finger, and opens AS A GROUP against an arbitrary rule, Cooper will capitulate.

Take note business owners.

Wayland said:

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PackBacker07 said:

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So basically once a group decides they are done with the order, gives Cooper a middle finger, and opens AS A GROUP against an arbitrary rule, Cooper will capitulate.

Take note business owners.

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The gyms should do what they can but I would not worry a bit about the social distancing guidelines. The gyms were going to open anyway and ole Roy got caught with his pants down. Imagine that? I am shocked!!

A lot of businesses should have done this a long time ago.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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Wayland said:

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PackBacker07 said:

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So basically once a group decides they are done with the order, gives Cooper a middle finger, and opens AS A GROUP against an arbitrary rule, Cooper will capitulate.

Take note business owners.

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The gyms should do what they can but I would not worry a bit about the social distancing guidelines. The gyms were going to open anyway and ole Roy got caught with his pants down. Imagine that? I am shocked!!

A lot of businesses should have done this a long time ago.

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Truthfully it benefits them to pay attention to the guidelines, as if they get a confirmed case they may be required to close for two weeks similar to how my child's daycare did. I have mostly seen gyms doing the outdoor classes and setups to try to give good ventilation to everyone.

PackBacker07 said:

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Hilarious that outdoor playgrounds were shut down. I didn't even realize that.

Mormad said:

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Somebody thanked Wayland above for his contribution to this thread. I'd like to second that. And I'll add Davie. I'd follow you 2 on Twitter to learn about this stuff before I'd follow 99 percent of those out there tweeting about covid. Please know that my long reply yesterday was not to davie himself but was instead aimed at tweets he linked. Honestly, I look forward to the day we could all meet for a beer and discuss this whole mess.

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I'll make the trip up to Raleigh for that

cowboypack02 said:

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King Leary said:

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PackBacker07 said:

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Hilarious that outdoor playgrounds were shut down. I didn't even realize that.

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I think we can all agree the only reason that Cooper is holding a press conference and allowing gyms and other places to open is because gym owners found a loop hole and were going to open anyway

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Is it the "necessary for medical reasons"-type loophole some gyms have been using for months, or a different loophole?

King Leary said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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King Leary said:

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PackBacker07 said:

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Hilarious that outdoor playgrounds were shut down. I didn't even realize that.

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I think we can all agree the only reason that Cooper is holding a press conference and allowing gyms and other places to open is because gym owners found a loop hole and were going to open anyway

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It's crazy that Cooper is so far ahead in the polls. Are people just not paying attention to how he's handled the coronavirus?

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I don't know if you can trust the polls. He barely won last time against McCrory and half of Charlotte was mad at Pat for making a toll road around the city. I think Dan Forest will give him a run.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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King Leary said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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King Leary said:

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PackBacker07 said:

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Hilarious that outdoor playgrounds were shut down. I didn't even realize that.

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I think we can all agree the only reason that Cooper is holding a press conference and allowing gyms and other places to open is because gym owners found a loop hole and were going to open anyway

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It's crazy that Cooper is so far ahead in the polls. Are people just not paying attention to how he's handled the coronavirus?

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I don't know if you can trust the polls. He barely won last time against McCrory and half of Charlotte was mad at Pat for making a toll road around the city. I think Dan Forest will give him a run.

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I've met Dan Forest a few times when he has come through Edenton. I like him

Mormad said:

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Somebody thanked Wayland above for his contribution to this thread. I'd like to second that. And I'll add Davie. I'd follow you 2 on Twitter to learn about this stuff before I'd follow 99 percent of those out there tweeting about covid. Please know that my long reply yesterday was not to davie himself but was instead aimed at tweets he linked. Honestly, I look forward to the day we could all meet for a beer and discuss this whole mess.

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Thanks Mormad for the positive comments. I really like having you on this thread to help me and the others with our understanding of this illness from a medical standpoint. I would also like to meet up with you guys some day for a beer and to discuss this virus.

Over the past several months, I have tried to provide an unbiased view of the data, in an attempt to provide some clarity about what is happening. There is so much in the media that is messaged in a way to generate eyeballs and clicks that I believe we have to continue to look objectively at the data to reach our own conclusions about what is happening now and in the future. Your posts really help to provide me with this clarity.

Due to some personal issues (a couple of people know the details), I have not posted a lot of updates lately. I still read every message in the thread daily, but I am not always able to comment or add any insight from a data standpoint. Going forward, I should be able to return to my normal level of participation.

EDIT - Been gone all morning taking care of some out of town business.

FYI - DHHS made an adjustment to Reported Cases last night. They took 886 cases from 8/29 and distributed them on other days to make the reporting curve seem more normal.

But I thought that is what date of specimen collection was for? Either way, they are trying to make themselves look less bad by arbitrarily assigning new Reporting Dates to those cases.





NEW GRAPH

OLD GRAPH

Quote:

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8/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
167,313
NC Deaths
2702
Currently Hospitalized
923 <- 84% reporting (was 917 at 88%)
Completed Tests
2,256,172


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1368 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
450 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (3)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

884 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1818 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

353 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 195
Resident Care 104 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2716* deaths

1186 positive cases over 12899* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 12899 but DHHS claims only `12077 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/31
8/29(5), 8/28, 8/27(3)

One new missing Date of Death

---

9/1/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
169,424
NC Deaths
2741
Currently Hospitalized
946 <- 92% reporting (was 923 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,295,698


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1390 Deaths are now Congregate (+22)
452 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (2)
+39 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

899 Deaths assumed General Population (+15)
1842 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

352 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 193
Resident Care 104 -> 106
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2734* deaths

2111 positive cases over 39526* new tests. 5.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 39626 but DHHS claims only 11824 completed tests******************
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Dates of Death Reported 9/1
8/31(3), 8/30(9), 8/29(16), 8/28(4), 8/27(2), 8/26(3), 8/11

Just went by the Planet Fitness I use here in Raleigh and they were open. Lots of cars in the parking lot.

So glad that Governor Cooper is giving us his grace this afternoon to carry on. I would use the sarcasm font if we had one.

DrummerboyWolf said:

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Just went by the Planet Fitness I use here in Raleigh and they were open. Lots of cars in the parking lot.

So glad that Governor Cooper is giving us his grace this afternoon to carry on. I would use the sarcasm font if we had one.

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/s

usually how its noted on the internets.

mdreid said:

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DrummerboyWolf said:

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Just went by the Planet Fitness I use here in Raleigh and they were open. Lots of cars in the parking lot.

So glad that Governor Cooper is giving us his grace this afternoon to carry on. I would use the sarcasm font if we had one.

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/s

usually how its noted on the internets.

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Thanks but it doesn't work on my IMac on this forum.

I don't understand why movie theaters can't open up at reduced capacity. At this point I may start going across the border to South Carolina.

Maybe its because I dont have kids, but what the hell was the justification for closing outdoor playgrounds?

Wayland said:

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The worst part was when talking about gym openings, Cohen is spouting off about people should really take their own health and safety into account when deciding on whether or not to attend gyms.

*** - that should be the policy in every environment.

Also, when pressed why college students were sent back home instead of following the recommendation to keep them on campus, Cohen had the gall to see that they were following those recommendations (did I miss UNC and State not kicking kids out of dorms?)

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Dr. Cohen, aren't people trying to improve their health when they go to gyms? Why couldn't we go for almost 6 months?

BTW - Phase 2.5 is effective until Oct 2.