Coronavirus - Page 149 | Inside Pack Sports

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to cowboypack02 • 11:18a, 8/30/20

That table doesn't list premorbid conditions like obesity. It lists conditions leading to death.

I think the answer to your question is difficult. From a policy perspective or a personal perspective? So many Americans don't even know they have premorbid conditions like DM or HTN. Those that don't have premorbid conditions go home to many that do. If you're a healthy 30 yo with a newborn and you go about your life, you risk your newborn. Is it likely your newborn will get really sick? Nope. But we can't guarantee it, and we really can't guarantee there won't be some lasting consequence even in the face of a relatively mild disease. Do you really wanna risk your baby? Idk. That's a personal decision, and opinions will be all over the board. And that's just one example. There are millions and millions with some condition, and increased prevalence among the healthy puts them at risk. Just a really tough call.

1

Daviewolf83

Joined: Feb 8, 2018

Posts: 4,037

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

11:36a, 8/30/20

Here's a Twitter thread with a slightly different spin on what the CDC data is saying. Some key points from this Twitter thread:

"it does NOT mean that only 6% of reported cov deaths are 'real cov deaths' "..." it means that those without co-morbidities have very low chance of dying"

"there is zero question that covid deaths are being dramatically over-counted by using the 'death with' vs 'death from' categorization."

"no other disease/pathology is counted this way, so apples to apples comparisons of IFR and CFR to other diseases are impossible until we do." <== Mormad - hopefully you can confirm is this is accurate. If it is, it does call into question any comparisons of IFR/CFR between various illnesses. For example, do we count people who die of the pneumonia as a flu death (if they test positive for the flu) for statistical reasons or do we classify them separately? Same goes for people who die of a heart attack, but they also tested positive for the flu?

1

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 12:05p, 8/30/20

Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10
8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9
8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.
8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.
8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total
8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28
8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.
8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13
8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date
8/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
156,396
NC Deaths
2535
Currently Hospitalized
948 <- 83% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,087,695

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS on 8/23.
BELOW IS 2 DAY CHANGE 8/23 and 8/24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1287 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
420 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 on 8/23)

828 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1707 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 199
Resident Care 109 -> 109
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2562* deaths

1283 positive cases over 9223* new tests. 14% positive rate. <- college outbreak testing(?)

Delta completed tests 9223 but DHHS claims only 9003 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/24
8/23, 8/22(3)

Reviewing additional data
8/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
157,741
NC Deaths
2570
Currently Hospitalized
1000 <- 92% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,102,359

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1302 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
430 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

838 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1732 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+25)

371 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 202
Resident Care 109 -> 110
Correctional 46 -> 48
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2574* deaths

1345 positive cases over 14644* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 14644 but DHHS claims only 8467 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/25
8/24(3), 8/23(8), 8/21(10), 8/20(7), 8/15(2), 8/2

Four new MISSING Dates of Death (now 6 total).
8/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
158,985
NC Deaths
2606
Currently Hospitalized
1004 <- 90% reporting (was 1000 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,121,001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1323 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
437 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

846 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1760 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+28)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-13)
Nursing Homes 202 -> 196
Resident Care 110 -> 105
Correctional 48 -> 45
Other 11 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2599* deaths

1244 positive cases over 18642* new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 18642 but DHHS claims only 15303 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/26
8/25(6), 8/24(11), 8/23(10), 8/22(2), 8/21(3), 8/20, 8/19, 8/15, 8/11, 8/9, 8/8, 8/5, 8/4

8/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
161,076
NC Deaths
2630
Currently Hospitalized
958 <- 89% reporting (was 1004 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,152,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1333 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
439 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

858 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1772 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

355 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 198
Resident Care 105 -> 110
Correctional 45 -> 47
Other 12 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2634* deaths

2091 positive cases over 31724* new tests. 6.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 31724 but DHHS claims only 21077 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/27
8/26(2), 8/25(8), 8/24(3), 8/23(3), 8/22, 8/21, 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/15, 8/12, 7/26, 7/19

8/28/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
162,491
NC Deaths
2652
Currently Hospitalized
970 <- 93% reporting (was 958 at 89%)
Completed Tests
2,182,891

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1342 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
442 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

868 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1784 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

363 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 198 -> 200
Resident Care 110 -> 109
Correctional 47 -> 46
Other 11 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2664* deaths

1415 positive cases over 30166* new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30166 but DHHS claims only 23622 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/28
8/27(2), 8/26(5), 8/25(3), 8/24, 8/23, 8/22, 8/20, 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/17, 8/16, 8/13, 8/12, 8/10, 8/8, 8/1, 6/25

Deaths REMOVED
8/7, 7/10, 5/25
8/29/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
165,076
NC Deaths
2683
Currently Hospitalized
965 <- 90% reporting (was 970 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,218,149

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1360 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
448 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+31 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

875 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1808 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-9)
Nursing Homes 200 -> 196
Resident Care 109 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2683* deaths

2585 positive cases over 35258* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 35258 but DHHS claims only 18647 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/29
8/28(5), 8/27(6), 8/26(4), 8/25(2),8/22, 8/21(2), 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/16, 8/12, 8/9, 7/31(2), 7/20(1)

2 Missing Dates of Death.

Wow. Lots of cases. Looks like we still haven't cleared the college backlog.

Today's report contains over 870 cases from over 2 weeks ago. Worst backlog report EVER.

8/30/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
166,127
NC Deaths
2692
Currently Hospitalized
917 <- 88% reporting (was 965 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,243,273

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1366 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
447 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

879 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
1813 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 196
Resident Care 104 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2707* deaths

1051 positive cases over 25124* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25124 but DHHS claims only 19913 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/30
8/28(3), 8/27(2), 8/22, 8/18, 8/17, 7/26

Everpack

Joined: Aug 7, 2017

Posts: 399

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Daviewolf83 • 12:15p, 8/30/20

I mentioned this months ago when this first started, but my grandmother passed away in early March. She was home bound with multiple health issues (extreme obesity and diabetes). She lived with my aunt who brought flu home. Both my aunt and grandma woke up with flu symptoms on a Sunday morning. Two weeks after symptoms, my grandmother was admitted to the hospital for difficulty breathing and dehydration. A week later she was moved to a rehab facility. A week after that she was placed in hospice care and died the next day. Her only cause of death listed on her death certificate was pneumonia. Now, I'm fairly confident that pneumonia is counted with influenza in the CDC's data, hence the P&I counts you usually see on graphs. I do wonder, though, if she had tested positive for this corona virus, would it have been listed as a secondary cause of death?

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Daviewolf83 • 12:54p, 8/30/20

Daviewolf83 said:
Here's a Twitter thread with a slightly different spin on what the CDC data is saying. Some key points from this Twitter thread:

"it does NOT mean that only 6% of reported cov deaths are 'real cov deaths' "..." it means that those without co-morbidities have very low chance of dying"

"there is zero question that covid deaths are being dramatically over-counted by using the 'death with' vs 'death from' categorization."

"no other disease/pathology is counted this way, so apples to apples comparisons of IFR and CFR to other diseases are impossible until we do." <== Mormad - hopefully you can confirm is this is accurate. If it is, it does call into question any comparisons of IFR/CFR between various illnesses. For example, do we count people who die of the pneumonia as a flu death (if they test positive for the flu) for statistical reasons or do we classify them separately? Same goes for people who die of a heart attack, but they also tested positive for the flu?

I think much of this is simple inability to interpret what's in front of them.

We already know that those without comorbid conditions have a small change of dying. Same for the young. Problem we have in America is the huge number of people who harbor those conditions.

It DOES NOT ADMIT that only 6 percent of those with covid listed on their CODs actually died of covid, and the rest died of unrelated conditions. Sorry Mel Q but that's simply HORRIBLY inaccurate.

I don't agree that the deaths from and deaths with numbers are really far apart. Especially in some "dramatic" way. It's not even common sensical to believe so. Even without knowledge of these diseases and how they affect us and an understanding of pathophys of disease, does it pass the smell test when someone says 94 percent of covid deaths were people so sick they were gonna die anyway and just happened to have an asymptomatic case of Cv19 that was completely unrelated to death? That's what these internet warriors with little formal education in medicine are selling... Like swamp land in Florida. Buy it if you want.

I mean. Come on. Do any of you REALLY BELIEVE that 153k people have died while infected with a novel pandemic virus, but only 9k died BECAUSE they were infected and 144k were just gonna die anyway of so many other things listed in table 3 which you have to then ASSUME (COMPLETELY INCORRECTLY) are ALL conditions completely UNRELATED to the presence of covid but listed on the death certificate? Of all the stuff I've read here, that belief deserves by far the biggest "wow."

Please don't listen to Mel Q, whoever that is.

Now, that's different from what I believe from a social and policy perspective. It's time to open up with restrictions. But there WILL be consequences. Unless Mel Q is right.

4

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

1:19p, 8/30/20

100 people die after car accidents

On 94 death certificates, the cod is brain trauma, with car accident as a secondary condition

On 6, the COD is simply listed "motor vehicle accident"

Would it be reasonable to argue then, based on a tabulated form of COD and contributing conditions, that only 6 percent died of the car accident?

5

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

1:28p, 8/30/20

The problem has always been that there are consequences either way. This was sold as "Stay Home, Save Lives from Covid". But the COST of those policies was never stated

The disclaimer of delayed care deaths, despair deaths, life years lost to lack of economic impact (loss of work, education, etc) was never discussed. The problem was this was presented as a binary option. Either we shut things down and no one dies OR we leave things open and everyone dies. And it was never that simple.

I have no doubt that well in excess of 100k lives have been lost due to COVID. But policy has been an absolute mess at preventing BOTH COVID deaths AND deaths due to COVID policy.

And by masking any deaths that are 'with' COVID as 'from COVID' does not help policy (I am looking at you 'Over 5000 deaths classified as both accidental and COVID by the CDC nationwide)

Why are life years lost from COVID more valuable than life years lost from cancer or suicide or economic impact? Why can't we have that discussion openly and honestly?

It is a **** situation that this virus got out but it was already endemic in the U.S. before any of us realized it. And we can cry and moan and complain about what we should have done in January, but that battle was lost a long time ago. And to pretend we can crawl into our shells and hide for a few weeks and this all goes away is laughable.

Go ahead, mourn the fact that we won't be able to eliminate this virus and anyone selling that route now is a snake-oil salesman, but then get over it and let's start talking about how we move forward causing the MINIMAL damage to TOTAL society in managing this... and not pretending this is some sort of clear cut either/or and that there will be no consequences to a new endemic virus.

Let's use the lessons we have learned from the studies that have been done and the empirical evidence of what is occurring elsewhere and not base decision on January data.

10

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

1:28p, 8/30/20

And I'm glad almost no young people die of it. I'd love to see dude discuss that little fact with the 330 families of the 0-24 and 1241 families of those 25-34 (that's pretty young to me) whose lives have been changed forever by the deaths of their children. For those people, stats are like farts in the wind. It's 100 percent for them. You can tell by the tweets who's had experience telling families their loved ones are dead/dying, and those who never had the agonizing privilege.

2

packgrad

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 8,367

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Mormad • 1:34p, 8/30/20

Mormad said:
And I'm glad almost no young people die of it. I'd love to see dude discuss that little fact with the 330 families of the 0-24 and 1241 families of those 25-34 (that's pretty young to me) whose lives have been changed forever by the deaths of their children. For those people, stats are like farts in the wind. It's 100 percent for them. You can tell by the tweets who's had experience telling families their loved ones are dead/dying, and those who never had the agonizing privilege.

I don't get the point of posts like this. Nobody is saying nobody in those age groups have died. But essentially zero percent are affected. It is exceptionally rare. We don't make policy over anecdotal stories to shame everyone for thinking differently than you do.

2

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 1:35p, 8/30/20

You, sir, are correct. That's where I am.

But to do so we have to admit that not all people like Mel Q who say things we WANT to hear are accurate in their interpretation of information. Misinformation on both sides is just irritating to me. Sorry if I showed my frustration.

3

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to packgrad • 1:35p, 8/30/20

You think my post is about policy?

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Mormad • 1:36p, 8/30/20

Mormad said:
You, sir, are correct. That's where I am.

But to do so we have to admit that not all people like Mel Q who say things we WANT to hear are accurate in their interpretation of information. Misinformation on both sides is just irritating to me. Sorry if I showed my frustration.

Completely agree. And that misinformation needs to be quashed and quickly or we will get lost.

1

Daviewolf83

Joined: Feb 8, 2018

Posts: 4,037

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Mormad • 2:07p, 8/30/20

Mormad said:
Daviewolf83 said:
Here's a Twitter thread with a slightly different spin on what the CDC data is saying. Some key points from this Twitter thread:

"it does NOT mean that only 6% of reported cov deaths are 'real cov deaths' "..." it means that those without co-morbidities have very low chance of dying"

"there is zero question that covid deaths are being dramatically over-counted by using the 'death with' vs 'death from' categorization."

"no other disease/pathology is counted this way, so apples to apples comparisons of IFR and CFR to other diseases are impossible until we do." <== Mormad - hopefully you can confirm is this is accurate. If it is, it does call into question any comparisons of IFR/CFR between various illnesses. For example, do we count people who die of the pneumonia as a flu death (if they test positive for the flu) for statistical reasons or do we classify them separately? Same goes for people who die of a heart attack, but they also tested positive for the flu?

I think much of this is simple inability to interpret what's in front of them.

We already know that those without comorbid conditions have a small change of dying. Same for the young. Problem we have in America is the huge number of people who harbor those conditions.

It DOES NOT ADMIT that only 6 percent of those with covid listed on their CODs actually died of covid, and the rest died of unrelated conditions. Sorry Mel Q but that's simply HORRIBLY inaccurate.

I don't agree that the deaths from and deaths with numbers are really far apart. Especially in some "dramatic" way. It's not even common sensical to believe so. Even without knowledge of these diseases and how they affect us and an understanding of pathophys of disease, does it pass the smell test when someone says 94 percent of covid deaths were people so sick they were gonna die anyway and just happened to have an asymptomatic case of Cv19 that was completely unrelated to death? That's what these internet warriors with little formal education in medicine are selling... Like swamp land in Florida. Buy it if you want.

I mean. Come on. Do any of you REALLY BELIEVE that 153k people have died while infected with a novel pandemic virus, but only 9k died BECAUSE they were infected and 144k were just gonna die anyway of so many other things listed in table 3 which you have to then ASSUME (COMPLETELY INCORRECTLY) are ALL conditions completely UNRELATED to the presence of covid but listed on the death certificate? Of all the stuff I've read here, that belief deserves by far the biggest "wow."

Please don't listen to Mel Q, whoever that is.

Now, that's different from what I believe from a social and policy perspective. It's time to open up with restrictions. But there WILL be consequences. Unless Mel Q is right.

So back to my question. When someone dies from pneumonia or a heart attack and they also have the flu, is this counted in the flu death statistics? Since the flu is generally speaking a respiratory virus, I assume it can cause pneumonia and heart issues when it manifests as such. I was told by a doctor two weeks ago that many respiratory viruses (including viruses that cause the common cold) can also affect the heart in adverse ways, so I assume heart attack could be caused by flu. Is this an accurate assumption as it relates to the pathology of the flu and heart attacks? Same goes with pneumonia. I know flu can lead to pneumonia (my mother experienced this many years ago), so if someone's cause of death is listed as pneumonia would it not be fair to categorize it as a flu death if they tested positive for the flu?

Daviewolf83

Joined: Feb 8, 2018

Posts: 4,037

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 2:25p, 8/30/20

Wayland said:
The problem has always been that there are consequences either way. This was sold as "Stay Home, Save Lives from Covid". But the COST of those policies was never stated

The disclaimer of delayed care deaths, despair deaths, life years lost to lack of economic impact (loss of work, education, etc) was never discussed. The problem was this was presented as a binary option. Either we shut things down and no one dies OR we leave things open and everyone dies. And it was never that simple.

I have no doubt that well in excess of 100k lives have been lost due to COVID. But policy has been an absolute mess at preventing BOTH COVID deaths AND deaths due to COVID policy.

And by masking any deaths that are 'with' COVID as 'from COVID' does not help policy (I am looking at you 'Over 5000 deaths classified as both accidental and COVID by the CDC nationwide)

Why are life years lost from COVID more valuable than life years lost from cancer or suicide or economic impact? Why can't we have that discussion openly and honestly?

It is a **** situation that this virus got out but it was already endemic in the U.S. before any of us realized it. And we can cry and moan and complain about what we should have done in January, but that battle was lost a long time ago. And to pretend we can crawl into our shells and hide for a few weeks and this all goes away is laughable.

Go ahead, mourn the fact that we won't be able to eliminate this virus and anyone selling that route now is a snake-oil salesman, but then get over it and let's start talking about how we move forward causing the MINIMAL damage to TOTAL society in managing this... and not pretending this is some sort of clear cut either/or and that there will be no consequences to a new endemic virus.

Let's use the lessons we have learned from the studies that have been done and the empirical evidence of what is occurring elsewhere and not base decision on January data.

Well stated and I agree. Based on articles from a few months ago, the virus was already widespread in NYC before the lock downs were even contemplated. The battle was lost before we even knew there was a battle to be fought. Based on everything I read from Dr. Fauci and others, this virus is not going away for years and some have even said in our lifetime, even when we do get a vaccine. Even with a vaccine, I will not be shocked to be sitting here next year reading about outbreaks in schools and on college campuses.

Even in New Zealand, an island nation that locked down all travelers for 14 days and a country that was seeing zero daily new cases, they have now had to institute lock downs in a few of their towns due to a rapid increase in new cases. In Europe, they are seeing a sudden and rapid growth in cases in many countries hardest hit the first time around. These countries had seen very low new case numbers until a few weeks ago and now these countries are struggling to get it under control again.

As mentioned in the article I posted earlier today, rapid testing capabilities are probably the next key to helping control the virus. It has the opportunity to be more effective than the current PCR tests, given the limitations (as mentioned in the article) at providing timely diagnostic capabilities. Until we get to a vaccine (or vaccines), it appears rapid testing is our biggest weapon. I personally believe the government should be focusing its efforts on getting the test kits produced and deployed as quickly as possible - with workers in congregate care facilities and healthcare settings having the highest priority for early deployment.

nakinawolf

Joined: Feb 23, 2018

Posts: 369

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 3:39p, 8/30/20

Wayland said:
The problem has always been that there are consequences either way. This was sold as "Stay Home, Save Lives from Covid". But the COST of those policies was never stated

The disclaimer of delayed care deaths, despair deaths, life years lost to lack of economic impact (loss of work, education, etc) was never discussed. The problem was this was presented as a binary option. Either we shut things down and no one dies OR we leave things open and everyone dies. And it was never that simple.

I have no doubt that well in excess of 100k lives have been lost due to COVID. But policy has been an absolute mess at preventing BOTH COVID deaths AND deaths due to COVID policy.

And by masking any deaths that are 'with' COVID as 'from COVID' does not help policy (I am looking at you 'Over 5000 deaths classified as both accidental and COVID by the CDC nationwide)

Why are life years lost from COVID more valuable than life years lost from cancer or suicide or economic impact? Why can't we have that discussion openly and honestly?

It is a **** situation that this virus got out but it was already endemic in the U.S. before any of us realized it. And we can cry and moan and complain about what we should have done in January, but that battle was lost a long time ago. And to pretend we can crawl into our shells and hide for a few weeks and this all goes away is laughable.

Go ahead, mourn the fact that we won't be able to eliminate this virus and anyone selling that route now is a snake-oil salesman, but then get over it and let's start talking about how we move forward causing the MINIMAL damage to TOTAL society in managing this... and not pretending this is some sort of clear cut either/or and that there will be no consequences to a new endemic virus.

Let's use the lessons we have learned from the studies that have been done and the empirical evidence of what is occurring elsewhere and not base decision on January data.

This post just makes so much good sense to me. Thanks again for your thoughtful contribution to this thread.

2

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Daviewolf83 • 4:07p, 8/30/20

I think it would be at the doctor's discretion to determine whether or not the flu directly led to the ultimate cause of death.

An example where a person with the flu should be counted among positive flu cases for public health reporting but the flu should NOT be listed on the death certificate: person has hip replacement, gets an infection and sepsis from staph while testing positive for flu, and dies of sepsis.

But if a dude dies of ARDS as a complication of the flu, then that's a flu death.

If I guy has unstable angina, gets the flu, and this stresses his system enough that it causes a heart attack, that could also be a flu death if the doc feels the heart attack wouldn't have happened right then if the flu hadnt pushed the patient over the edge I guess. Again, several things will be on the death certificate, just like these covid deaths in table 3 that I was arguing.

3

SupplyChainPack

Joined: Jul 1, 2020

Posts: 878

User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

5:09p, 8/30/20

What you're saying certainly makes sense.

Do you think it would helpful to track two categories of deaths - ones in which covid was the overwhelming cause, and ones in which it was one of multiple factors, and may have contributed to the death?

It wouldn't crystalize the covid deaths, but would probably provide more helpful info for high level summaries of these deaths.

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to SupplyChainPack • 6:17p, 8/30/20

From a practical side, no.

From a policy side, I wish. That'd be great.

PackMom

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 1,084

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Mormad • 6:59p, 8/30/20

As an example that doesn't involve covid, a good friend of mine had lung cancer and had a recurrence. She was relatively stable, but not strong. She and her husband were living in a retirement village. In the midst of the bad flu season a couple of years ago, she had to go get a scan and caught the flu. It went into pneumonia and she just didn't have the strength to fight it. I have no idea what they put on her death certificate, but I'd guess some combination of pneumonia secondary to flu, complicated by lung cancer.

1

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Daviewolf83 • 8:09p, 8/30/20

Daviewolf83 said:
Wayland said:
The problem has always been that there are consequences either way. This was sold as "Stay Home, Save Lives from Covid". But the COST of those policies was never stated

The disclaimer of delayed care deaths, despair deaths, life years lost to lack of economic impact (loss of work, education, etc) was never discussed. The problem was this was presented as a binary option. Either we shut things down and no one dies OR we leave things open and everyone dies. And it was never that simple.

I have no doubt that well in excess of 100k lives have been lost due to COVID. But policy has been an absolute mess at preventing BOTH COVID deaths AND deaths due to COVID policy.

And by masking any deaths that are 'with' COVID as 'from COVID' does not help policy (I am looking at you 'Over 5000 deaths classified as both accidental and COVID by the CDC nationwide)

Why are life years lost from COVID more valuable than life years lost from cancer or suicide or economic impact? Why can't we have that discussion openly and honestly?

It is a **** situation that this virus got out but it was already endemic in the U.S. before any of us realized it. And we can cry and moan and complain about what we should have done in January, but that battle was lost a long time ago. And to pretend we can crawl into our shells and hide for a few weeks and this all goes away is laughable.

Go ahead, mourn the fact that we won't be able to eliminate this virus and anyone selling that route now is a snake-oil salesman, but then get over it and let's start talking about how we move forward causing the MINIMAL damage to TOTAL society in managing this... and not pretending this is some sort of clear cut either/or and that there will be no consequences to a new endemic virus.

Let's use the lessons we have learned from the studies that have been done and the empirical evidence of what is occurring elsewhere and not base decision on January data.

Well stated and I agree. Based on articles from a few months ago, the virus was already widespread in NYC before the lock downs were even contemplated. The battle was lost before we even knew there was a battle to be fought. Based on everything I read from Dr. Fauci and others, this virus is not going away for years and some have even said in our lifetime, even when we do get a vaccine. Even with a vaccine, I will not be shocked to be sitting here next year reading about outbreaks in schools and on college campuses.

Even in New Zealand, an island nation that locked down all travelers for 14 days and a country that was seeing zero daily new cases, they have now had to institute lock downs in a few of their towns due to a rapid increase in new cases. In Europe, they are seeing a sudden and rapid growth in cases in many countries hardest hit the first time around. These countries had seen very low new case numbers until a few weeks ago and now these countries are struggling to get it under control again.

As mentioned in the article I posted earlier today, rapid testing capabilities are probably the next key to helping control the virus. It has the opportunity to be more effective than the current PCR tests, given the limitations (as mentioned in the article) at providing timely diagnostic capabilities. Until we get to a vaccine (or vaccines), it appears rapid testing is our biggest weapon. I personally believe the government should be focusing its efforts on getting the test kits produced and deployed as quickly as possible - with workers in congregate care facilities and healthcare settings having the highest priority for early deployment.

I believe I posted this a month ago. I don't have time right now to watch it again, but if it is the video I think it is then it discussed some how testing could be more effective. I think with some of the rapid testing.

EDIT: Yes. This is the right video, I thought it did a good job roughly representing how PCR over-detects cases and how 'quick tests' would be more effective both with time and cost at catching actual contagious cases. The problems with PCR testing has been discussed for months, but for some reason was never addressed in MSM. And while some of the discussion in the video is really geared towards early/mid July, I think it still brings up good discussion for those who still want to heavily rely on testing.

1

4 edits

Mormad

Joined: Feb 10, 2018

Posts: 4,517

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

11:05a, 8/31/20

Somebody thanked Wayland above for his contribution to this thread. I'd like to second that. And I'll add Davie. I'd follow you 2 on Twitter to learn about this stuff before I'd follow 99 percent of those out there tweeting about covid. Please know that my long reply yesterday was not to davie himself but was instead aimed at tweets he linked. Honestly, I look forward to the day we could all meet for a beer and discuss this whole mess.

5

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 12:38p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Wayland said:
Quote:
8/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
143,706
NC Deaths
2343
Currently Hospitalized
1032 <- 91% reporting (was 1049 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,903,401

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1216 Deaths are now Congregate (+20)
376 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

751 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1592 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 183 -> 186
Resident Care 99 -> 101
Correctional 44 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2321* deaths

1536 positive cases over 26713* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25999 but DHHS claims only 24270 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/15
8/14(2), 8/13(4), 8/12(5), 8/11(5), 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/6(2), 8/4, 8/1, 7/24, 7/22, 7/16, 7/14, 7/13(2), 7/10
8/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
144,952
NC Deaths
2347
Currently Hospitalized
934 <- 80% reporting (was 1032 at 91% yesterday) MAHPC only 31%
Completed Tests
1,924,646

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1217 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1594 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

1246 positive cases over 21205* new tests. 5.9% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 22205 but DHHS claims only 20338 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/16
8/14, 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/9
8/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
145,516
NC Deaths
2348
Currently Hospitalized
980 <- 85% reporting (was 934 at 80% yesterday MAHPC only 31%)
Completed Tests
1,935,472

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1218 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
377 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

753 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
1595 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

345 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 187
Resident Care 101 -> 101
Correctional 45 -> 45
Other 12 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2376* deaths

564 positive cases over 10826* new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 10826 but DHHS claims only 10302 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/17
One Death Added With Missing Date

Looks like for deaths Meck and Wake were both +1 and Durham was -1 for a Net of 1.
8/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
146,779
NC Deaths
2396
Currently Hospitalized
1026 <- 85% reporting (was 980 at 85%)
Completed Tests
1,951,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1237 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
389 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+48 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

770 Deaths assumed General Population (+17)
1626 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+31)

344 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+1)
Nursing Homes 187 -> 186
Resident Care 101 -> 105
Correctional 45 -> 43
Other 12 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2377* deaths

1263 positive cases over 15648* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 15648 but DHHS claims only 10048 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/18
8/17(3), 8/16(10), 8/15(10), 8/14(9), 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/9(2), 8/8(2), 8/7(2), 8/3, 7/25, 7/6, and 3/12(Checking This)
1 additional missing date of death.
8/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
147,932
NC Deaths
2431
Currently Hospitalized
1001 <- 91% reporting (was 1026 at 93%)
Completed Tests
1,978,094

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1247 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
394 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

790 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1641 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

343 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 186 -> 188
Resident Care 105 -> 102
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2438* deaths

1153 positive cases over 26974* new tests. 4.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26974 but DHHS claims only 26323 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/19
8/18(6), 8/17(9), 8/16(5), 8,15(2) 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(2), 8/11, 8/7(2), 8/6, 7/29
3 new missing dates of death for 6 total
8/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
149,904
NC Deaths
2465
Currently Hospitalized
1023 <- 91% reporting (was 1001 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,003,307

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1262 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
401 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+34 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

802 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1663 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

347 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 188
Resident Care 102 -> 105
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 10 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2463* deaths

1972 positive cases over 25213* new tests. 7.8% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25213 but DHHS claims only 21375 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/20
8/19(3), 8/18(8), 8/17(6), 8/16(3), 8/15(2), 8/14, 8/13(2), 8/12(3), 8/11, 8/10(3), 8/8, 8/7, 8/6, 8/1, 7/29, 7/20
One Death REMOVED 7/28
8/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
151.912
NC Deaths
2494
Currently Hospitalized
1015 <- 90% reporting (was 1023 at 91%)
Completed Tests
2,030,885

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1271 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
413 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+12)
+29 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

810 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1684 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 188 -> 192
Resident Care 105 -> 108
Correctional 43 -> 43
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2487* deaths

2008 positive cases over 27587* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 27587 but DHHS claims only 22076 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/21
8/20(3), 8/19(9), 8/18(9), 8/16(2), 8/15(2), 8/13, 8/11, 8/5, 7/15(3)
One added date from missing

Deaths REMOVED
8/14, 5/16

Cases definitely up this week.
8/22/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
153,641
NC Deaths
2521
Currently Hospitalized
996 <- 92% reporting (was 1015 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,052,118

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+14)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+27 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 192 -> 195
Resident Care 108 -> 109
Correctional 43 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at xxxx* deaths

1729 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 21233 but DHHS claims only 16919 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/22
8/21(6), 8/20(5), 8/19, 8/18(5), 8/15, 8/14(2) 8/13, 8/12, 8/11, 8/10, 8/9, 8/8, 8/7(2), 8/6

One Death Removed
6/13
8/23/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
155,113
NC Deaths
2531
Currently Hospitalized
898 <- 84% reporting (was 996 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,078,472

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1285 Deaths are now Congregate (+x)
415 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+x)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

821 Deaths assumed General Population (+x)
1700 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+x)

361 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+x)
Nursing Homes 195 -> xxx
Resident Care 109 -> xxx
Correctional 46 -> xx
Other 11 -> xx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2552* deaths

1472 positive cases over 21233* new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 26354 but DHHS claims only 21567 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/23
8/22(3), 8/21(4), 8/20, 8/16
One Additional Missing Date
8/24/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
156,396
NC Deaths
2535
Currently Hospitalized
948 <- 83% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,087,695

CONGREGATE NOT UPDATED BY DHHS on 8/23.
BELOW IS 2 DAY CHANGE 8/23 and 8/24
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1287 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
420 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+10 on 8/23)

828 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1707 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

365 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+4)
Nursing Homes 195 -> 199
Resident Care 109 -> 109
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2562* deaths

1283 positive cases over 9223* new tests. 14% positive rate. <- college outbreak testing(?)

Delta completed tests 9223 but DHHS claims only 9003 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/24
8/23, 8/22(3)

Reviewing additional data
8/25/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
157,741
NC Deaths
2570
Currently Hospitalized
1000 <- 92% reporting (was 898 at 84%)
Completed Tests
2,102,359

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1302 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
430 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+35 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

838 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1732 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+25)

371 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+6)
Nursing Homes 199 -> 202
Resident Care 109 -> 110
Correctional 46 -> 48
Other 11 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2574* deaths

1345 positive cases over 14644* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 14644 but DHHS claims only 8467 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/25
8/24(3), 8/23(8), 8/21(10), 8/20(7), 8/15(2), 8/2

Four new MISSING Dates of Death (now 6 total).
8/26/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
158,985
NC Deaths
2606
Currently Hospitalized
1004 <- 90% reporting (was 1000 at 92%)
Completed Tests
2,121,001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1323 Deaths are now Congregate (+21)
437 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

846 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1760 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+28)

358 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-13)
Nursing Homes 202 -> 196
Resident Care 110 -> 105
Correctional 48 -> 45
Other 11 -> 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2599* deaths

1244 positive cases over 18642* new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 18642 but DHHS claims only 15303 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/26
8/25(6), 8/24(11), 8/23(10), 8/22(2), 8/21(3), 8/20, 8/19, 8/15, 8/11, 8/9, 8/8, 8/5, 8/4

8/27/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
161,076
NC Deaths
2630
Currently Hospitalized
958 <- 89% reporting (was 1004 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,152,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1333 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
439 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

858 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1772 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

355 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 198
Resident Care 105 -> 110
Correctional 45 -> 47
Other 12 -> 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2634* deaths

2091 positive cases over 31724* new tests. 6.6% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 31724 but DHHS claims only 21077 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/27
8/26(2), 8/25(8), 8/24(3), 8/23(3), 8/22, 8/21, 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/15, 8/12, 7/26, 7/19

8/28/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
162,491
NC Deaths
2652
Currently Hospitalized
970 <- 93% reporting (was 958 at 89%)
Completed Tests
2,182,891

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1342 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
442 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

868 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1784 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

363 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 198 -> 200
Resident Care 110 -> 109
Correctional 47 -> 46
Other 11 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2664* deaths

1415 positive cases over 30166* new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 30166 but DHHS claims only 23622 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/28
8/27(2), 8/26(5), 8/25(3), 8/24, 8/23, 8/22, 8/20, 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/17, 8/16, 8/13, 8/12, 8/10, 8/8, 8/1, 6/25

Deaths REMOVED
8/7, 7/10, 5/25
8/29/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
165,076
NC Deaths
2683
Currently Hospitalized
965 <- 90% reporting (was 970 at 93%)
Completed Tests
2,218,149

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1360 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
448 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+31 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

875 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1808 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-9)
Nursing Homes 200 -> 196
Resident Care 109 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2683* deaths

2585 positive cases over 35258* new tests. 7.3% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 35258 but DHHS claims only 18647 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/29
8/28(5), 8/27(6), 8/26(4), 8/25(2),8/22, 8/21(2), 8/19(2), 8/18, 8/16, 8/12, 8/9, 7/31(2), 7/20(1)

2 Missing Dates of Death.

Wow. Lots of cases. Looks like we still haven't cleared the college backlog.

Today's report contains over 870 cases from over 2 weeks ago. Worst backlog report EVER.
8/30/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
166,127
NC Deaths
2692
Currently Hospitalized
917 <- 88% reporting (was 965 at 90%)
Completed Tests
2,243,273

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1366 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
447 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+9 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

879 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
1813 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

354 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (+0)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 196
Resident Care 104 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2707* deaths

1051 positive cases over 25124* new tests. 4.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 25124 but DHHS claims only 19913 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/30
8/28(3), 8/27(2), 8/22, 8/18, 8/17, 7/26

8/31/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
167,313
NC Deaths
2702
Currently Hospitalized
923 <- 84% reporting (was 917 at 88%)
Completed Tests
2,256,172

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1368 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
450 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (3)
+10 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

884 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1818 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

353 Congregate Facilities now have an active outbreak. (-1)
Nursing Homes 196 -> 195
Resident Care 104 -> 104
Correctional 46 -> 46
Other 8 -> 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 2716* deaths

1186 positive cases over 12899* new tests. 9.2% positive rate.

Delta completed tests 12899 but DHHS claims only `12077 completed tests

Dates of Death Reported 8/31
8/29(5), 8/28, 8/27(3)

One new missing Date of Death

statefan91

Joined: Jul 25, 2017

Posts: 4,832

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 12:49p, 8/31/20

Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to statefan91 • 1:04p, 8/31/20

statefan91 said:
Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up

The daily percent is mostly a factor of the weekend. Works itself out.

Overall COVID Hospitalizations/COVID ICU continue the slow decline.

But an interesting stat today.

Since COVID ICU has been reported (6/4/20), the COVID ICU population makes up its lowest percent of total COVID hospitalizations with 26.4% Even if overall hospitalizations are slower to decline, the fact that less of them are ICU cases is a positive.

Packchem91

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 16,743

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to statefan91 • 1:05p, 8/31/20

statefan91 said:
Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up

Positivity rate due to college kids going and getting tested? I assume this will continue to trickle as some of them head home and spread it in their houses, etc.
But agree the really good news is that hospital rates are lower.

ETA: Or is positivity rate higher just because? As in because for whatever reason that might possibly affect the counts w/o disclosure?
I saw Rick Bonnell retweeted a reporter from WRAL-TV's screaming headline this w/e that NC had hit an all-time single day high in positive counts. Neither one of them mentioned that it was b/c 1/2 of the positive results were from 2 weeks earlier. Makes a different headline....but I guess that reality doesn't matter.

1 edit

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Packchem91 • 1:28p, 8/31/20

Packchem91 said:
statefan91 said:
Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up
Positivity rate due to college kids going and getting tested? I assume this will continue to trickle as some of them head home and spread it in their houses, etc.
But agree the really good news is that hospital rates are lower.

ETA: Or is positivity rate higher just because? As in because for whatever reason that might possibly affect the counts w/o disclosure?
I saw Rick Bonnell retweeted a reporter from WRAL-TV's screaming headline this w/e that NC had hit an all-time single day high in positive counts. Neither one of them mentioned that it was b/c 1/2 of the positive results were from 2 weeks earlier. Makes a different headline....but I guess that reality doesn't matter.

Certainly some of the percent positive is due to outbreaks. Closed outbreaks in dorms, food processing, LTC, are going to skew a lot higher than general population testing. So when you are focusing a lot of testing at an outbreak it will shift things up.

Which is why percent positive from hospital testing, outbreak testing, and lab testing should all be reported separately since they mean different things.

1

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

1:55p, 8/31/20

Cooper feeling heat?

DrummerboyWolf

Joined: Jul 25, 2017

Posts: 7,196

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 1:58p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

Being an N. C. State fan builds great character!

1

packgrad

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 8,367

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 1:59p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

Please lord, let this fool open things up.

1

Wayland

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 2,203

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to DrummerboyWolf • 2:01p, 8/31/20

DrummerboyWolf said:
Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

I knew he was being painted into a corner with the gym thing, I was curious (and still am) at how he will react.

Now, either way he looks weak and 'not following his science'. What will his new arbitrary rules be?

Does anything have to do with football and the Panthers pressuring ole Coop?

Daviewolf83

Joined: Feb 8, 2018

Posts: 4,037

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 2:15p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
statefan91 said:
Low amount of tests and high positivity, that's always disappointing to see.

Love to see that we've been sub-1000 in hospital even with the latest spikes from colleges opening up
The daily percent is mostly a factor of the weekend. Works itself out.

Overall COVID Hospitalizations/COVID ICU continue the slow decline.

But an interesting stat today.

Since COVID ICU has been reported (6/4/20), the COVID ICU population makes up its lowest percent of total COVID hospitalizations with 26.4% Even if overall hospitalizations are slower to decline, the fact that less of them are ICU cases is a positive.

Decreasing ICU census should be reflected in declining deaths. The following graph shows deaths by date of death versus the daily ICU census. I have included 7-day rolling average trend lines, since the hospital reporting percentages have such daily variation. The fit of these two data points is not good (statistically speaking). It seems there is a lag in deaths from the daily reported ICU census, based on the difference the timing of the curve peaks. If you assume the patients with the worst prospects are in ICU, you could expect them to more closely align.

1 edit

Colonel Armstrong

Joined: Jul 27, 2017

Posts: 8,729

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 2:17p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

I wouldn't say feeling the heat as much as now literally every other state is opening gyms. He basically has no choice but to open.

It will be interesting to see what other restrictions are lifted. Before when we went to "Phase 2" many restrictions that he said were going to be removed in P2 never actually were removed.

ncsualum05

Joined: Jul 24, 2017

Posts: 5,782

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 2:19p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

Internal polling probably shows him sinking. Dems can fool people for a while but they usually hold on for too long. Eventually people catch on. No different than Biden coming out against violence now after seeing his numbers crater.

1

Everpack

Joined: Aug 7, 2017

Posts: 399

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

2:22p, 8/31/20

How's everyone's kids doing with their school? Our county has started the year all virtual. Thanks to some nerd who hit our county school system with a ransom ware attack last week on the official first day, today was finally the first true day of instruction. My wife teaches 4th grade and is expected to do her virtual teaching from her classroom. We've got a 6th grader and a 2nd grader. 6th grader hit the ground running because technology is second nature to her. The 2nd grader has been in tears most of the day in my wife's classroom because she has no idea what to do or how to do it, and my teacher wife has to be a teacher to her 21 virtual 4th graders instead of helping out our lost 2nd grader. 511 total cases of the virus in my county of about 60,000 people. 25 deaths that to my knowledge all came out of one LTC facility. Following the science is a winning formula.

3

Daviewolf83

Joined: Feb 8, 2018

Posts: 4,037

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to Wayland • 2:24p, 8/31/20

Wayland said:
DrummerboyWolf said:
Wayland said:
Cooper feeling heat?

I guess the cat was out of the bag when Planet Fitness, Crunch, and O2 all said they were going to happen. Now he is trying to get ahead of it.

I knew he was being painted into a corner with the gym thing, I was curious (and still am) at how he will react.

Now, either way he looks weak and 'not following his science'. What will his new arbitrary rules be?

Does anything have to do with football and the Panthers pressuring ole Coop?

The news I am hearing on fans at football games is not good at the moment. It could change, but I received some recent news that no fans will be allowed at games in September and this includes the parents of college football players. As you can imagine, parents (I am one of them) are not real happy about our sons playing a game with a some risk of serious injury and we are not allowed to be in attendance.

From a science standpoint, I do not know how you can justify allowing more than 1,000 people at one time in a Walmart, but you can not allow 1,000 parents to sit in a 30,000-50,000+ seat stadium. In the stadium, we can easily social distance and wear a mask. Additionally, the stadiums are outside, where ventilation is much better than any indoor situation (like shopping at Walmart). I think it has more to do with politics and optics than it does anything approaching science.

By the way, UNC had a football team scrimmage this past weekend as they prepare for their season and at the scrimmage, parents of players were allowed to attend. I have not been told that Governor Cooper gave them permission to go against the Phase 2 guidelines for the scrimmage.

2