Mail in voting-thoughts?

47,470 Views | 388 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by cowboypack02
PackBacker07
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FYI for those in NC and plan to vote remote:

RunsWithWolves26
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acslater1344 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Good for them. Again, never will support mail in voting. This ain't a right or left political thing for me like most. Go vote either early or on election day or don't vote at all.


Yeah, especially military personnel overseas. HATE how we let them vote by mail. What a disgrace!! (/sarcasm)


Yep. Let's compare 120 mil to 50,000. You're making a great case for mail in ballots. I said nothing about people shouldn't vote. I said if you can go out and about, you can vote. Simple as that.
statefan91
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

acslater1344 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Good for them. Again, never will support mail in voting. This ain't a right or left political thing for me like most. Go vote either early or on election day or don't vote at all.


Yeah, especially military personnel overseas. HATE how we let them vote by mail. What a disgrace!! (/sarcasm)


Yep. Let's compare 120 mil to 50,000. You're making a great case for mail in ballots. I said nothing about people shouldn't vote. I said if you can go out and about, you can vote. Simple as that.
So how do you determine who can / cannot during a pandemic? While I think COVID is overblown, I won't fault people if they feel they don't want to go for their own safety. I think most State's are implementing no excuse absentee ballots by mail - is that something you have a problem with if they are requested by the voter?
packgrad
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PackBacker07
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Y'all means ALL.
WPNfamily
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From a strictly operational perspective how will USPS handle the volume? My accounting dept is contacted every day to see if we mailed a check to a vendor. They say over half the time they end up mailing out a second check and rarely hear that both checks arrived. You could argue that we are just not contacted when the second check arrives, but we do ask each time for our vendor to let us know when they see the original.

Bottom line, there is 0% chance mail in voting will be accurate. If the election is tight, like 1-2%, then I would contest it if I was Trump or Biden. This is just an absolutely terrible plan. Get off your butt and go vote.
Civilized
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packgrad said:

It's just mind boggling to me how people now think the USPS is efficiently ran and dependable because Trump questions their ability to handle mail in voting. TDS is out of control. Literally everything he says they will protest and say the opposite. Lunacy.

Trump is perceived to be one of the most divisive AND one of the worst presidents we've ever had, by both dems and pubs.

Check out this study that Brookings did a couple of years ago to illustrate:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/03/20/comparing-trump-to-the-greatest-and-the-most-polarizing-presidents-in-u-s-history/

That people run in the other direction from what he says isn't (or shouldn't be) surprising.

It's not even that he's unpopular and divisive. It's that he literally doesn't seem to have the capacity to critically analyze issues and then communicate his thoughts above a 3rd grade level. Layered on top of that is superhuman impulsivity so that he seems to both think AND react like a 3rd grader. People just don't trust the things he says, or the reasons he says them.

Some of that can be blamed on partisanship but a lot of it is just that he is colossally and historically inept and unpopular.
SupplyChainPack
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I&I Editorial: Democrats Found Their Scapegoat If Biden Loses NC Businessman and Postmaster General Louis DeJoy

https://firstinfreedomdaily.com/ii-editorial-democrats-found-their-scapegoat-if-biden-loses-nc-businessman-and-postmaster-general-louis-dejoy/

dogplasma
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I don't have any problem at all with mail in voting, but I'll still be there to vote in person. So go ahead and shut down the USPS - won't stop me.
Steve Williams
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Staff
Just playing devil's advocate but would it be possible for Dems or Republicans to mobilize and actually go to people's houses, door to door, and basically "help" people fill out their ballot and get it in the mail?
lumberpack5
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Steve Williams said:

Just playing devil's advocate but would it be possible for Dems or Republicans to mobilize and actually go to people's houses, door to door, and basically "help" people fill out their ballot and get it in the mail?
It's called "canvassing"
I like the athletic type
lumberpack5
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How is it people are so stupid that they do not know how to get their cousin, niece, etc., to take their damn ballot to the Board of Elections office?

I like the athletic type
statefan91
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Steve Williams said:

Just playing devil's advocate but would it be possible for Dems or Republicans to mobilize and actually go to people's houses, door to door, and basically "help" people fill out their ballot and get it in the mail?


I believe that's in part what got McCrae Dowless in trouble
cowboypack02
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I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.
cowboypack02
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statefan91 said:

Steve Williams said:

Just playing devil's advocate but would it be possible for Dems or Republicans to mobilize and actually go to people's houses, door to door, and basically "help" people fill out their ballot and get it in the mail?


I believe that's in part what got McCrae Dowless in trouble
That isn't illegal in all states....It is here in NC but in California doing that is ok.
packgrad
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cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
cowboypack02
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packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
IseWolf22
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cowboypack02 said:

packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
Im pretty sure the congress to select the new president would be the newly elected congress, not those currently in place. So in your scenario Trump has won the presidency, but Democrats have won the house, which is unlikely. Trump is less popular than down ballot republicans and him winning would indicate Republicans picked up many seats.
It's also highly suspect because a large number of house seats would still be in question and the presidential decision may be made by less than the full membership. This would be a wildcard and Im not sure how Nancy Pelosi games this to ensure most of the decided races are in democratic districts.

Finally, this just seems like a lot of scheming for the party that is every odds maker's favorite to win. Nothing in life is certain, but Biden is farther ahead than Clinton and Trump barely pulled that off.
cowboypack02
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IseWolf22 said:

cowboypack02 said:

packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
Im pretty sure the congress to select the new president would be the newly elected congress, not those currently in place. So in your scenario Trump has won the presidency, but Democrats have won the house, which is unlikely. Trump is less popular than down ballot republicans and him winning would indicate Republicans picked up many seats.
It's also highly suspect because a large number of house seats would still be in question and the presidential decision may be made by less than the full membership. This would be a wildcard and Im not sure how Nancy Pelosi games this to ensure most of the decided races are in democratic districts.

Finally, this just seems like a lot of scheming for the party that is every odds maker's favorite to win. Nothing in life is certain, but Biden is farther ahead than Clinton and Trump barely pulled that off.
I could be wrong, but i don't think that Biden is that far ahead...if at all. I say this because there have been studies this year where people say that they won't tell pollsters or other people who they will actually vote for. I think that the republican number here was between 65-70%, with the democrat number being at 45-50%. If this is the case then the all of the polls are incorrect and no one knows who is leading.

Due to gerrymandering it wouldn't surprise me at all if the democrats kept the house and lost the presidency. The 2018 election the republicans lost the house and picked up seats in the Senate.
packgrad
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Keep in mind with all polling that democrats have basically said they are fine with fire bombing buildings, attacking people and beating them senseless, and trying to get people fired from their jobs if they disagree with them politically. Didnt Nancy say people will do what they do, or something of the sort? The rioters, looters have certainly not been denounced by the left. I don't expect polling to be very accurate. That and only ****ing dumb asses answer their phones when polling calls.
ncsualum05
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IseWolf22 said:

cowboypack02 said:

packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
Im pretty sure the congress to select the new president would be the newly elected congress, not those currently in place. So in your scenario Trump has won the presidency, but Democrats have won the house, which is unlikely. Trump is less popular than down ballot republicans and him winning would indicate Republicans picked up many seats.
It's also highly suspect because a large number of house seats would still be in question and the presidential decision may be made by less than the full membership. This would be a wildcard and Im not sure how Nancy Pelosi games this to ensure most of the decided races are in democratic districts.

Finally, this just seems like a lot of scheming for the party that is every odds maker's favorite to win. Nothing in life is certain, but Biden is farther ahead than Clinton and Trump barely pulled that off.
Pretty sure the democrats have proven they are master schemers over the last 4 years. They've also proven they would stop at nothing and there is no low too low to try to get Trump out of office. It's a very likely scenario that GOP can't take the house back but Trump wins re election. I just hope they can count and certify without issue. And Trump is no further behind in polls than he was 4 years ago... he's actually slightly better in battlegrounds. It really comes down to several swing states. Trump could lose the popular vote by 3-4% and still theoretically win the election. 2016 about 5 million angry Californians came out to push the popular vote over to Clinton and about 4 million more decided that Johnson or McMullin was a safer pick. With much less 3rd party influence this time we shall see. Internal polling of Johnson voters from 2016 determined that if they were to pick between Trump and Biden 70% would go Trump. We will see if that means anything.
IseWolf22
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cowboypack02 said:

IseWolf22 said:

cowboypack02 said:

packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
Im pretty sure the congress to select the new president would be the newly elected congress, not those currently in place. So in your scenario Trump has won the presidency, but Democrats have won the house, which is unlikely. Trump is less popular than down ballot republicans and him winning would indicate Republicans picked up many seats.
It's also highly suspect because a large number of house seats would still be in question and the presidential decision may be made by less than the full membership. This would be a wildcard and Im not sure how Nancy Pelosi games this to ensure most of the decided races are in democratic districts.

Finally, this just seems like a lot of scheming for the party that is every odds maker's favorite to win. Nothing in life is certain, but Biden is farther ahead than Clinton and Trump barely pulled that off.
I could be wrong, but i don't think that Biden is that far ahead...if at all. I say this because there have been studies this year where people say that they won't tell pollsters or other people who they will actually vote for. I think that the republican number here was between 65-70%, with the democrat number being at 45-50%. If this is the case then the all of the polls are incorrect and no one knows who is leading.

Due to gerrymandering it wouldn't surprise me at all if the democrats kept the house and lost the presidency. The 2018 election the republicans lost the house and picked up seats in the Senate.
Polls have high degrees of uncertainty and are best compared to other polls, both other this year and in past cycles. At the moment, they certainly look more positive than in 2016, which came down to the wire.

Why would gerrymandering help democrats keep the house? Republicans had control of most state legislatures when the last round of redistricting was completed? 2018 senate pickups were heavily affected by Democrats having twice as many seats up for election as Republicans.
IseWolf22
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ncsualum05 said:

IseWolf22 said:

cowboypack02 said:

packgrad said:

cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.


That would be a damn fine way to get a civil war.
That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario
Im pretty sure the congress to select the new president would be the newly elected congress, not those currently in place. So in your scenario Trump has won the presidency, but Democrats have won the house, which is unlikely. Trump is less popular than down ballot republicans and him winning would indicate Republicans picked up many seats.
It's also highly suspect because a large number of house seats would still be in question and the presidential decision may be made by less than the full membership. This would be a wildcard and Im not sure how Nancy Pelosi games this to ensure most of the decided races are in democratic districts.

Finally, this just seems like a lot of scheming for the party that is every odds maker's favorite to win. Nothing in life is certain, but Biden is farther ahead than Clinton and Trump barely pulled that off.
Pretty sure the democrats have proven they are master schemers over the last 4 years. They've also proven they would stop at nothing and there is no low too low to try to get Trump out of office. It's a very likely scenario that GOP can't take the house back but Trump wins re election. I just hope they can count and certify without issue. And Trump is no further behind in polls than he was 4 years ago... he's actually slightly better in battlegrounds. It really comes down to several swing states. Trump could lose the popular vote by 3-4% and still theoretically win the election. 2016 about 5 million angry Californians came out to push the popular vote over to Clinton and about 4 million more decided that Johnson or McMullin was a safer pick. With much less 3rd party influence this time we shall see. Internal polling of Johnson voters from 2016 determined that if they were to pick between Trump and Biden 70% would go Trump. We will see if that means anything.
Would you mind linking me to the Johnson poll? I'd like to see it because most studies have said that when 3rd party voters can't choose their 3rd party option, they just write in or don't vote.
I personally was a 2016 Johnson voter and know many others who did the same. Most are still planning to vote Libertarian, for Jorgenson. However of those who are switching, 100% are going to Biden. That's obviously just anecdotal, so not really worth much
dogplasma
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I'd love to know who's still undecided or is wavering with their vote. What does that person look like? It feels like the last four years have galvanized pretty much everyone in their opinion. We might as well vote next week IMO.
PackBacker07
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WPNfamily said:

From a strictly operational perspective how will USPS handle the volume?


How do they handle the volume around Christmas? How does the holiday season volume compare to voter turnout? I honestly do not know either answer, just something to compare. Strictly guessing, I would think they are pretty on par with each other.
Y'all means ALL.
FlossyDFlynt
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dogplasma said:

I'd love to know who's still undecided or is wavering with their vote. What does that person look like? It feels like the last four years have galvanized pretty much everyone in their opinion. We might as well vote next week IMO.
/raises hand

I dont like Trump, but I LOATHE the direction the Democrats are going. More than likely going third party, but if the Dems keep up with all these antics, I may hold my nose and vote Trump.
statefan91
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cowboypack02 said:

I'm going to leave a couple of recent examples of mail in issues here:

6 weeks after the race was over, two congressional races are still undecided: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html

84000 mail in ballots (1/5 of all mail in ballots) disqualified: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mail-in-ballots-disqualified-in-nyc-primary-election/

City Councilman among 4 facing voter fraud charges in NJ: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/new-jersey-attorney-general-announces-voting-fraud-charges/index.html



The truth of the matter is that the whole Russia got Trump elected thing is about played out and the Democrats want something else to try and go after Trump on if he gets re-elected. The democrats are going to sue Trump if he wins for something or another anyway and i think this is just one more thing to try and hang their hat on as him being an illegitimate president.

If I had to speculate I believe that the entire point of this exercise is to try and push out the results of the election until after January 20, 2021. According to Section 3 of the 20th Amendment if the House hasn't chosen a president elect then the VP becomes President until they do. This was changed under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 so that the Speaker of the House would become president. If the democrats maintain the House then Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Do I actually think this would happen.....yep.
It looks like Senate Republicans disagree that Russia helping Trump was fake news...



Civilized
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cowboypack02 said:

That it would....

Unfortunately if we are all honest with ourselves this is a realistic scenario

Civilized
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cowboypack02 said:

I could be wrong, but i don't think that Biden is that far ahead...if at all. I say this because there have been studies this year where people say that they won't tell pollsters or other people who they will actually vote for. I think that the republican number here was between 65-70%, with the democrat number being at 45-50%. If this is the case then the all of the polls are incorrect and no one knows who is leading.

Due to gerrymandering it wouldn't surprise me at all if the democrats kept the house and lost the presidency. The 2018 election the republicans lost the house and picked up seats in the Senate.

Right now Biden is 8 points ahead of Trump, not distinctly different from where Hillary was going into election day.

However, the key distinctions between 2020 and 2016 that make an election day surprise less likely are...

a. There are fewer undecideds this time around
b. Undecideds in 2016 were leaning Trump, in 2020 they're leading Biden and
c. Trump's unfavorable ratings are still historically high (just like they were in 2016). Hillary's were also historically high then; Biden's are not in 2020.

FiveThirtyEight puts the odds right now as 73/26 Biden.

If you don't read it, FiveThirtyEight is really interesting both because they have their own model, and because they rate other polls' methodologies to help determine which polls are likely most reliable. They also calculate running averages of all polls.

Their site is a treasure trove of electoral probability information.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

statefan91
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inb4 "LOL 538 dumbasses predicted Hillary to win"
dogplasma
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Interesting. What antics do you mean? Something recent or accumulation over the last few years?
FlossyDFlynt
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dogplasma said:

Interesting. What antics do you mean? Something recent or accumulation over the last few years?
For a party that howling about Trump not accepting the election results (again, they did the same thing leading up to 2016) when they still havent accepted the results. First, it was Russia, then Brett Kavanaugh, then impeachment, now mail in voting. Whats it going to be tomorrow?

As far as the direction of the Democratic party, its been the move to the outside of the far left. Defund the Police, Medicare for All, free college, etc. Nothing in life is free. And the government wastes more money than any other business in this country. One of the reasons I left the Republican party is that they are no better when it comes to the tax/spending issue. No such thing as a fiscal conservative anymore.

Biden would have been a good choice in 2016, but its four years later and despite what the news wants you to believe, hes starting to lose it. Then he selects the most far left senator as his VP pick all while they try to paint her as a moderate.

I want to see both Trump/Biden and Harris/Pence debates at this point. The DNC is basically different people saying "orange man bad" at this point, so maybe by the debates they can talk actual policy.

Also, I am not sure we have ever had two just awful VP choices when there is a chance that both main candidates wont finish their terms.
statefan91
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A couple thoughts:

  • "Defund The Police" is a buzzword that there are a lot of differing levels of. My understanding thus far of Biden's stance is that it's a reprioritizing of money for the police, and giving them money earmarked for things that are different than just enforcement - i.e., better training on how to assess situations where someone is mentally handicapped, or finding ways to integrate community partners that can help stop problems before they start. Those that are calling for disbanding of police departments are insane, but I haven't seen that being a tentpole of the Biden campaign
  • Healthcare is broken and I haven't seen anything in the past four years that makes me think Trump has a plan. I haven't seen anything from Biden on Medicare For All, the most I've seen is lowering the age so people that are 60 can join. I don't know the answer for Healthcare though.
  • I don't disagree that Biden is old, but I can at least follow a transcript of his speeches. Have you ever tried to read a transcript of a Trump speech . I don't think either is 100% there
  • Despite how polarizing a figure she is, you may actually appreciate Ocasio-Cortez in this aspect. She has been a bulldog on rooting out waste, especially within Government contracts -
FlossyDFlynt
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Ill add a few points

-Defund the police - call it what it is then. I am actually all for reforming police (getting rid of qualified immunity would be a good start), but thats not whats happening in Democratic cities at the moment (see NYC/Minneapolis).
-Healthcare is broken. And my hot take as someone who works in it, the current system cannot be saved. I dont think Trump or Biden has an answer, but I am vehemently against Medicare for All. Medicare/Medicaid/Tricare are a very large part of why healthcare costs are where they are today. I realize single payer is more than likely to happen in my lifetime, but anyone that proposes it will not get my vote.
-Trumps transcripts read like his Twitter posts. Hes been doing the same thing forever. To put it nicely, he is not an eloquent speaker by any means.
-I actually admire AOC in an odd way. I hardly agree with her on anything, but she should be the poster child for the American dream. She was literally a bartender and now holds government office. Not many places in the world you can make that transition. Rooting out government waste is good and I am happy for any politician that calls it out, regardless of which side of the aisle they sit on. Its also the reason that Beth Wood will get my vote for auditor in NC. She goes after everyone regardless of party, which is exactly what you need in a position like that.
statefan91
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Sure - I think that's where the issue is. There's not a monolith asking to "Defund The Police" - there are a lot of people with varying degrees of interest in policing, but I would venture a guess that those leaning to the left of Republicans are the ones interested in making changes. I'm unaffiliated (but seem like a Marxist Leftist on this board due to demographics haha), and I would like to see funding for the police be refocused so there's less focus on buying tactical gear and more focus on helping police do this incredibly stressful job with less violence. Maybe a pipe dream, but something to be considered instead of buying an armored tank the next time budget comes through

Will defer to you on healthcare. Like I said, Biden was very clearly not for Medicare For All during the primaries and I don't see him changing course on that.
 
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