Thanks very much for this information. It is helpful in understanding what is happen at the local levels. Your hospital and area of the state seem to be lagging other areas of the state with regards to hospitalization growth. It appears the state numbers may have peaked, but there are isolated areas still not peaking yet. As I mentioned last week, I still want to see the updates to hospitalizations this Friday to say for certain. Due to the delays in the demographic reporting NCDHHS posts, we will not see any effect from Labor Day until the end of this week. I am not using cases for my projection/analysis, since the data is too messy (variance in daily testing, testing of fully vaccinated student populations so low risk cases are included, etc). The hospitalization data is much cleaner, since it reflects those cases severe enough to warrant more attention. On a national level, hospitalizations appear now to have peaked and are heading down in many key states. Several tweets over the weekend from people who follow the national trends more closely that say the Summer Wave (they call it the fourth wave) is declining and in some areas, declining very rapidly.Mormad said:
Our midnight census is about 150, avg age 58, avg #admissions 27,avg ED admissions 25, avg # discharges 25, length of stay 4.58, pos rate 13
This is the first time I've seen our admission numbers overtake our discharge numbers...it was hanging around 24 admits to 25 discharges. Not a huge change, but a trend that keeps me out of the OR i guess.
Still predict a peak mid sept, with our current trajectory suggesting 40-50 in icu and 180-220 admitted. We'll see. Prediction models have been much more accurate this time, but we never hit the predicted peak numbers last time.
For the positivity rate, do you have any way of seeing what percentage of those are fully vaccinated people. NCDHHS did provide some insight on this a few weeks ago and we know Duke and some other institutions are testing fully vaccinated people and reporting cases.