Civilized said:
It's fascinating to go back to the beginning of the thread and read through, following people's thoughts and actions as COVID exploded in the US and as our understanding of and response to the situation struggled to keep up.
Don't want to go back to those days anytime soon but hope lessons learned make next time more manageable.
I do worry some lessons have still not been learned. As an example, when the virus outbreak began, it was believed by most public health professionals that transmission would be similar to the yearly flu and as such, a significant vector for transmission would be kids in schools. As a result, schools were closed across the country in the US. By mid to late Summer, the evidence indicated transmission from kids to adults was not a significant vector and for the most part, kids who contracted the virus were asymptomatic. Yet, schools in many states and large cities stayed remote for the entire year. As a result, our country and many leaders have done significant damage to a large portion of the population that will be felt for years to come.
I am still concerned that several school districts and large cities will return to virtual school in the Fall and require mask wearing for the students, even though several infectious disease experts have said this is the wrong approach, given current case rates and hospitalization rates.
Here are some random thoughts on the things I believe we have learned:
1. Lockdowns of economies is only marginally effective at best in reducing the spread of the virus. I have started to see studies coming out on this topic and most only show limited effects of a lockdown in limiting the spread of the virus.
2. Masks are marginally effective in specific (not all) settings in reducing the spread. Those settings are indoors, where ventilation might be poor and in other situations where people have to be in close proximity with other people. In outdoor settings, masks are not incrementally helpful in reducing the spread of the aerosol viruses. Study after study now show the requirement to wear masks in outdoor settings, even when people are close together (less than 3-6 feet) is not required to reduce the spread of the virus.
3. Absent vaccines and herd immunity, it is extremely difficult in a free and open society to stop the spread of airborne viruses. Only when severe and draconian steps age taken, can the spread of an airborne virus be stopped by government action. For example, in China, when the outbreak was raging in Wuhan, people were "forced" to remain indoors and not allowed to leave their house or apartment. In some cases, they were "imprisoned" in their houses and if they left, they were arrested. In South Korea, it was mandatory for people to install apps on their phones and all had to consent to having their locations tracked by the apps. Failure to do so resulted in significant fines. Additionally, people who did not comply with voluntary quarantine after coming in contact with a Covid positive person were placed in involuntary quarantine and subjected to fines. In country such as the US, steps such as these would be a clear violation of Constitutional rights. Additionally, given the structure of the US's governmental system, States have significant freedom from the Federal government that makes it difficult for a central government to impose its "rules" (remember no laws were passed for any Covid restrictions) uniformly across the entire nation. I have actually talked to coworkers in other countries about this point and they really have no understanding of this fact (many in the US do not understand this concept either).
4. Politicians and large organizations will use a crisis, such as a pandemic, to increase their power and influence over others. This not a new concept and we have seen it play out very clearly this entire year. I could go into great length here, but I think most everyone gets it.
5. For airborne viruses, ventilation is the key to reducing transmission. The better the ventilation, the lower the rate of transmission. This fact has been known for decades and was a key to dealing with the Spanish Flu. Yet, many seemed to be surprised at how effective ventilation is in reducing the spread of Covid and other airborne viruses. Remember all of the scary, outdoor "super-spreader" events last Summer and during the last political campaign? None of those events have been tied to large outbreaks of the virus following those events. Why? They were outdoors and the fact they were crowded did not matter.
6. Taking temperatures for people entering establishments and cleaning surfaces are two things we learned are not important to reduce the spread of the virus that causes Covid-19. I talked to an employee of a restaurant my wife and I frequent weekly and he said they had returned to their typical cleaning practices and the additional cleanings had been doing had been discontinued. With regards to temperature taking, this should have ended late last Fall, but many places continue with this practice, despite its ineffectiveness in finding people who might be infected.
7. Putting up plexiglass in schools and in other businesses was not effective in reducing the spread and a couple of new studies make the case it may have contributed to higher spread of the virus, since the plexiglass disrupted the natural airflow in a room. See point 5 for more on this.
8. Social media is a horrible place and is not conducive to helping to maintain a free and open society. On the contrary, it is quite detrimental to a free and open society. Why? It s simple - social media is not free and it is not open. It is manipulated by bad actors to limit information that does not "conform" to their norms and beliefs.
9. The Chinese Communist Party is not your friend and should not be considered to be a friend to the US and other free nations, and they will only operate to serve their interests. They will never be truthful if it makes them look bad. They will never provide the information required to determine the origins of CoV-SARS-2.