Posting a link to a really good article on variants (and other topics) by a top virologist. Some key points from the article:

- " ... there is only one known strain of the novel coronavirus -- the original one, SARS-CoV-2, first discovered in Wuhan. And, two, there's no evidence so far of a variant that can meaningfully evade vaccines, though there are several variants out there."

- "I am not worried at all that this virus is going to out-evolve vaccines. People have been looking at it the wrong way. People have been looking at antibodies. People say, "ah, the variants are less susceptible to antibodies. But, you know what? They are ignoring T cells."

- "The way vaccines work is that when you get infected after you're vaccinated you have a memory response and it takes two or three days to kick in. In those two or three days, you are going to be infected, but the infection will be kept down, you won't get sick and you probably won't transmit it." <== This is why I have been arguing that we should stop focusing on cases, once vaccinations are wide-spread. people will continue to get infected, but their body's immune system will be able to defeat it. It is all about who is contagious, not who is infected.

There is also some really good information on antivirals and why you need more than one before you treat people. The link to the article is below:

Don't Believe the Hype About COVID 'Super Strains,' Says Top Virologist

dogplasma said:

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What will get NC out of the mask mandate? Some combination of percent vaccinated and hospitalization/death stats? I don't think officials want to put out specifics so I don't recall seeing anything reported.

I remember early on the thought was at least 60% of the population immunized to keep things under control, but then that was revised upwards of 80% at some point. Don't know if that's a primary input or not but I would think there has to be some percent immunization threshold as a factor.

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The governor and the NCDHHS director have not provided any definitive guidelines or metrics for ending the mask mandate. Always remember, the mask mandate and the restrictive policies were put in place to flatten the curve and not to end the pandemic. In the early days of the mandates last year, they always said we needed to see 14 days of declines in hospitalizations, cases, and percent positives to relax the mandates. We have seen well below this and there has been some relaxing, but no discussion of mask mandates and what needs to happen to end them.

I have consistently said that when we get to 50% of the population vaccinated, we should remove the mask mandate and I stand by this guideline. Based on everything I have read, prevalence of immunity from previous Covid-19 infection is in the 15% range, so adding this to the 50% figure means at least 65% of the population should have immunity. Additionally, there seems to be some evidence coming out of Israel and the UK that cases and hospitalizations drop when the overall population or a specific age group achieves a first dose vaccination level of 50% of the represented population. I have definitely identified a drop in hospitalizations by age group when the 50% threshold for first vaccine dose is reached, so I believe there is some validity to this guideline.

I would make one other point that a couple of people (one is an infectious disease doctor) I follow on Twitter have made regarding a guideline to end mask mandates. This guideline is that mask mandates should end after the vaccine as available for anyone who wants a vaccine, plus 30 days. The plus 30 days allows for the timeframe to get a first and second dose. If you assume by the end of April or early May that we will be at a point where anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, the mask mandates should end by mid-June. I agree this is a good target and it also lines up with the timing where I would project 50% of the population is vaccinated.

If the mandates do not come down after mid-June, they are going to be met with resistance by a lot of people in the health community. I am definitely not as optimistic as some that the government will easily lift the mask mandates when the metrics I mentioned are met. Unfortunately, there is a vocal minority of people known as "Zero Covid" proponents and they will likely continue to try and keep restrictions and mask mandates in place. They believe any Covid death is bad and we can not relax our restrictions until we get to a point of close to zero deaths. Additionally, they do not agree with relaxing restrictions when deaths and cases get to the level of the yearly flu (something I have advocated for in the past).

I do predict if mask mandates to hang on beyond mid-June, you will likely hear some mention of variants. If they say anything about variants and use them as an argument to keep mask mandates, you should ignore anyone who makes this argument. As I posted last night, no variant has been found that is not impacted by the current vaccines and to continue to cite variants is just done to needlessly scare people.

It is interesting that the Biden Administration announced a public contest for people to design a better mask and are offering $500,000 in price money for the winners. I do understand that improving mask designs has great benefit to the medical community, but part of their assumption is we need a better design so people will continue to wear a mask during the pandemic. If mask mandates were to end soon, why do we need this contest right now? It does not give me a good feeling about the potential of mask mandates ending in the next couple of months.

If people are interested in reading more, here is a very good article concerning when the pandemic is over and life can return to normal:

A Simple Rule of Thumb for Knowing When the Pandemic Is Over

More good news today:

Here's an ethical question, for all to consider. I thought it would be a good topic and is something I have been thinking about the past couple of weeks.

The question is this:

Once everyone has the opportunity to get the Covid-19 vaccine if they want a vaccine, for those of us who got a vaccine, do we have an ethical obligation to continue to wear a mask and social distance to protect those people who, for various reasons, have chosen to NOT be vaccinated?

I will give my answer to start the discussion and it is simple. NO, I do not believe I have an ethical obligation to wear a mask and social distance to protect those who have "willingly" chosen to not be vaccinated for Covid-19.

Thanks for the replies so far and I appreciate the honest answers. I will also add that my question is not hypothetical, but is based in part, on a very real world scenario (related to colleges/universities and also sports teams). I also saw it posed as a question on Twitter, so I was curious to get some other opinions.

It's starting and is what I predicted. By mid-June, California will lift all restrictions, but KEEP the mask mandate. They are not going to let it go so easily.