Coronavirus

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statefan91
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 11:24a, 3/11/21
Looks like a pretty broad group, including adults who are overweight could open up a lot of people to be able to get theirs scheduled.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/vaccines/find-your-spot-take-your-shot/deeper-dive-group-4#age-16-64-w-higher-risk-medical-conditions-and-additional-congregate-settings
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to statefan91 • 11:34a, 3/11/21
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statefan91 said:


Good to see - I'm ready to see international travel open back up in the coming months and have a 10 yr anniversary trip I want to take. Hoping to see vaccination rates in Europe pick up.
Vaccinations in Europe are still a challenge. Just saw the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been suspended in several EU countries (see below). In addition, in France there is a very strong anti-vax culture across the country and this has greatly complicated the rate of vaccination in this country. I suspect travel to Europe will still be problematic during the Summer (sorry to be so pessimistic), but could begin to open up in the Fall.

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Daviewolf83
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 11:38a, 3/11/21
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RunsWithWolves26 said:
Sorry because I'm sure this has been answers but who is considered group 4?
Here is the official working from NCDHHS:

"Group 4 includes anyone 16-64 years old with one or more high-risk medical conditions for severe disease from COVID-19, people living in close group settings and essential workers."

The NCDHHS website includes a long list of what classifies as a high-risk condition. For example, smokers (current and former) fit this category (something I disagree with). As far as people living in close group settings, this applies to college students, so expect to see universities having vaccination clinics. I did see NC State is planning to start on-campus vaccinations next week.

I talked to my son yesterday and he is trying to get vaccinated next week.
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statefan91
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1:51p, 3/11/21
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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 2:57p, 3/11/21
Well hell, I smoked when I was a teenager so I qualify. That seems a little weird to me.
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PackPA2015
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:28p, 3/11/21
Daviewolf83 said:
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Sorry because I'm sure this has been answers but who is considered group 4?
Here is the official working from NCDHHS:

"Group 4 includes anyone 16-64 years old with one or more high-risk medical conditions for severe disease from COVID-19, people living in close group settings and essential workers."

The NCDHHS website includes a long list of what classifies as a high-risk condition. For example, smokers (current and former) fit this category (something I disagree with). As far as people living in close group settings, this applies to college students, so expect to see universities having vaccination clinics. I did see NC State is planning to start on-campus vaccinations next week.

I talked to my son yesterday and he is trying to get vaccinated next week.
I think this is basically saying, everyone else can come get vaccinated regardless of age or medical condition.
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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to PackPA2015 • 3:58p, 3/11/21
And I will be there ready to get mine. Guess that will be my birthday present
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to PackPA2015 • 4:56p, 3/11/21
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PackPA2015 said:
Daviewolf83 said:
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Sorry because I'm sure this has been answers but who is considered group 4?
Here is the official working from NCDHHS:

"Group 4 includes anyone 16-64 years old with one or more high-risk medical conditions for severe disease from COVID-19, people living in close group settings and essential workers."

The NCDHHS website includes a long list of what classifies as a high-risk condition. For example, smokers (current and former) fit this category (something I disagree with). As far as people living in close group settings, this applies to college students, so expect to see universities having vaccination clinics. I did see NC State is planning to start on-campus vaccinations next week.

I talked to my son yesterday and he is trying to get vaccinated next week.
I think this is basically saying, everyone else can come get vaccinated regardless of age or medical condition.
Since I am 61 and have no severe medical issues and am not an essential worker, I am in Group 5. I guess I will be able to get my vaccination sometime in April. By that point, my dad, my wife, my daughter, and my son should be fully vaccinated. I did just hear a county nearby is moving to Group 5 soon, so I might just take a road trip.
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Civilized
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6:11p, 3/11/21
Texas AG files lawsuit against Austin leaders over mask requirement

Obviously Texas isn't content to end their statewide mandate but give discretion to local authorities to do what they feel is prudent.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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packgrad
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In reply to Civilized • 6:21p, 3/11/21
Civilized said:
Texas AG files lawsuit against Austin leaders over mask requirement

Obviously Texas isn't content to end their statewide mandate but give discretion to local authorities to do what they feel is prudent.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.


Interesting that a non elected person is making law in Austin, and their law can penalize people $2000, and that that person feels their power supersedes that of elected officials. It's no surprise mandates are being lifted with situations like this happening in liberal strongholds.
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packgrad
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6:33p, 3/11/21


An unfortunately predictable outcome of mask mandates that would most certainly be used against Texas if it happened there, but it happened in San Francisco.
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Civilized
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In reply to packgrad • 7:38p, 3/11/21
We've seen this stupidity throughout Rona but dollars to donuts it's going to happen more in places without mandates.
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PackPA2015
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 8:19a, 3/12/21
Daviewolf83 said:
PackPA2015 said:
Daviewolf83 said:
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Sorry because I'm sure this has been answers but who is considered group 4?
Here is the official working from NCDHHS:

"Group 4 includes anyone 16-64 years old with one or more high-risk medical conditions for severe disease from COVID-19, people living in close group settings and essential workers."

The NCDHHS website includes a long list of what classifies as a high-risk condition. For example, smokers (current and former) fit this category (something I disagree with). As far as people living in close group settings, this applies to college students, so expect to see universities having vaccination clinics. I did see NC State is planning to start on-campus vaccinations next week.

I talked to my son yesterday and he is trying to get vaccinated next week.
I think this is basically saying, everyone else can come get vaccinated regardless of age or medical condition.
Since I am 61 and have no severe medical issues and am not an essential worker, I am in Group 5. I guess I will be able to get my vaccination sometime in April. By that point, my dad, my wife, my daughter, and my son should be fully vaccinated. I did just hear a county nearby is moving to Group 5 soon, so I might just take a road trip.
I wouldn't blame you if you did. Luckily, everyone on both sides of my family are teachers or other essential workers, so they have all had at least an opportunity to be vaccinated.
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PackPA2015
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In reply to packgrad • 8:21a, 3/12/21
Just curious, but are you saying what these ladies did is okay, because mask mandates are dumb?
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packgrad
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In reply to PackPA2015 • 8:29a, 3/12/21
PackPA2015 said:
Just curious, but are you saying what these ladies did is okay, because mask mandates are dumb?


No. Not quite sure how you could get that from the post.
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packgrad
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In reply to Civilized • 8:39a, 3/12/21
Civilized said:
We've seen this stupidity throughout Rona but dollars to donuts it's going to happen more in places without mandates.


Why would you assume that? Sounds more like cheerleading.
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Civilized
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In reply to PackPA2015 • 8:40a, 3/12/21
I think packgrad is just pointing out the hypocrisy of indicting similar behavior in Texas as being attributable to them dropping the mandate when similar dumbassery is happening in more progressive states or places that still have their mandate.
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Civilized
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In reply to packgrad • 8:43a, 3/12/21
Because it sure seems like a governor and state AG defiantly eliminating mandates could embolden anti-maskers in that State who are also looking to make a statement. It's a microcosm of Trump's behavior spilling over to his constituents/followers/worshipers. People take behavioral cues from their leaders.

The truth is we don't know if this behavior will or won't be more pronounced in places like Texas. We'll see. It would be best for everyone if I'm wrong. I hope I am.
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PackPA2015
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In reply to packgrad • 9:44a, 3/12/21
packgrad said:
PackPA2015 said:
Just curious, but are you saying what these ladies did is okay, because mask mandates are dumb?


No. Not quite sure how you could get that from the post.
I wasn't accusing or assuming you did, just making sure you didn't. No worries.
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packgrad
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In reply to Civilized • 10:10a, 3/12/21
Civilized said:
Because it sure seems like a governor and state AG defiantly eliminating mandates could embolden anti-maskers in that State who are also looking to make a statement. It's a microcosm of Trump's behavior spilling over to his constituents/followers/worshipers. People take behavioral cues from their leaders.

The truth is we don't know if this behavior will or won't be more pronounced in places like Texas. We'll see. It would be best for everyone if I'm wrong. I hope I am.


You just ignore that a local unelected health official is defiantly ignoring government orders from elected officials here. It's a microcosm of the left the last 4 years. RESIST!!! I think if violence does occur we can attribute it to that. But I guess to the TDS crowd, everything is TRRUUMMP and his supporters to blame. Ignore the last 4 years of violence from the left. Ignore the leftist autonomous zones. Orange man bad. Par for the course.

But I'm done with derailing the thread with cheerleading failure in Texas because it has a Republican governor.
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Daviewolf83
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10:36a, 3/12/21
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Some clear trends in NC:
  • Daily reported cases have declined for 63 straight days
  • Daily cases by specimen collection date have declined for 67 straight days
  • Daily number of people hospitalized due to Covid-19 has declined for 58 straight days
  • Daily deaths by date of death has declined for 56 straight days
  • Percent positive tests have declined for 67 straight days
Yesterday, NCDHHS described (see below) these very positive trends as "stable." Governor Cooper and Mandy Cohen (head of NCDHHS) continue to provide no clear guidelines for when restrictions can be further relaxed, despite these very positive trends in all key statistics.

No wonder people are losing trust in governments and what they are asking their citizens to continue to do.

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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 11:12a, 3/12/21
And that is why I said the other day I'm done with listening to any government, republican or democrat. It's all a bunch of BS and bias.
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statefan91
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12:04p, 3/12/21
You have to think North Carolina will open to all adults sooner rather than later:

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Wayland
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 1:04p, 3/12/21
Daviewolf83 said:
Some clear trends in NC:
  • Daily reported cases have declined for 63 straight days
  • Daily cases by specimen collection date have declined for 67 straight days
  • Daily number of people hospitalized due to Covid-19 has declined for 58 straight days
  • Daily deaths by date of death has declined for 56 straight days
  • Percent positive tests have declined for 67 straight days
Yesterday, NCDHHS described (see below) these very positive trends as "stable." Governor Cooper and Mandy Cohen (head of NCDHHS) continue to provide no clear guidelines for when restrictions can be further relaxed, despite these very positive trends in all key statistics.

No wonder people are losing trust in governments and what they are asking their citizens to continue to do.



Also a significant number of the current death reporting continues to feed into the Sept-January peak. Can see how far below the Date of Death 7 day average is right now. (It is not populated beyond a week ago and is subject to change).

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RunsWithWolves26
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In reply to Wayland • 1:23p, 3/12/21
Can someone much smarter then me explain the purpose the government has of doing this? Adding numbers months later etc? I'm sure some think it's a conspiracy but davie, PackPA, Wayland, etc. Could you give me your informed opinion on this?
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Wayland
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 2:02p, 3/12/21
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Can someone much smarter then me explain the purpose the government has of doing this? Adding numbers months later etc? I'm sure some think it's a conspiracy but davie, PackPA, Wayland, etc. Could you give me your informed opinion on this?
I don't fully understand the 'Death Cert' matching process. Why deaths from even 2-3 months ago, let alone 4-10 months ago, are just showing up now. Someone digging through the paperwork of everyone that died and seeing if they were also COVID positive? I feel like the standard should be higher, but whatever.

The test clean up, I mean, I understand going back and removing duplicates and adding older tests just to count the count accurate?

But today NC DHHS added a case from over a year ago. What is the point? To say we had 1998 reported cases instead of 1997 reported cases today?

I almost feel like there should be a secondary metric. Any case being reported today that was collected MORE than 2 weeks ago should be put in a separate reporting bucket because for daily reporting purposes that means nothing.

And the funny thing, is that it is the daily REPORTED cases 14 day average that is being tracked for 'color' metrics not 14 day average of COLLECTED BY cases. (I am pretty sure).

We will see if barring an unforeseen reporting spike if Sampson County drops below 500 cases per 100000 residents per 14 days. tomorrow. Based on my best guess their anomaly spike day should drop off that count. It already dropped off the percent positive count. Which means there are no more "Red" counties.

And if all counties drop below 500 will they change the color coding legend like they did when all counties dropped below 1000, and again below 800, etc.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to RunsWithWolves26 • 2:04p, 3/12/21
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RunsWithWolves26 said:
Can someone much smarter then me explain the purpose the government has of doing this? Adding numbers months later etc? I'm sure some think it's a conspiracy but davie, PackPA, Wayland, etc. Could you give me your informed opinion on this?
I believe they would say they are doing it so we have the most accurate statistics possible and I can appreciate and accept this as a reason. However, where they are failing is in not providing details when they dip back so far into the past. When reporting data, you are trained how to handle both the initial reporting and how to report "updates" to the data. Where NCDHHS is failing is in how they are treading the updates to past data.

Add to this a media that are biased to report the worst of the data. I was incredulous a couple of weeks ago when WRAL ran a report saying their "data trackers" had discovered that the deaths being reported daily included deaths from weeks in the past. I had been Tweeting at them weekly and sometimes daily with this very basic information, even providing graphs showing the actual date of death for those deaths reported on a given day. If I can do this on a daily basis, surely their "data trackers" can do the same thing. I really believe they did not care to report the most accurate data, despite having "data trackers" and only report the data that makes things look as bad as possible. If you employ "data trackers" and can not even get the basics correct, I am left to believe you are not operating in good faith.

Similarly, the News and Observer for months ran with a chart of daily deaths that showed deaths as they were reported and not based on the date of the actual death. Same thing as WRAL. They are not operating in good faith and are only doing harm by misreporting data in this way.

Of course, who will ever forget this video of the Weather Channel reporter leaning into the "wind" during a hurricane, while two bystanders stroll by, basically unaffected by the "wind." Why would they ever do something like this?

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Wayland
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 2:06p, 3/12/21
Daviewolf83 said:
RunsWithWolves26 said:
Can someone much smarter then me explain the purpose the government has of doing this? Adding numbers months later etc? I'm sure some think it's a conspiracy but davie, PackPA, Wayland, etc. Could you give me your informed opinion on this?
I believe they would say they are doing it so we have the most accurate statistics possible and I can appreciate and accept this as a reason. However, where they are failing is in not providing details when they dip back so far into the past. When reporting data, you are trained how to handle both the initial reporting and how to report "updates" to the data. Where NCDHHS is failing is in how they are treading the updates to past data.

Add to this a media that are biased to report the worst of the data. I was incredulous a couple of weeks ago when WRAL ran a report saying their "data trackers" had discovered that the deaths being reported daily included deaths from weeks in the past. I had been Tweeting at them weekly and sometimes daily with this very basic information, even providing graphs showing the actual date of death for those deaths reported on a given day. If I can do this on a daily basis, surely their "data trackers" can do the same thing. I really believe they did not care to report the most accurate data, despite having "data trackers" and only report the data that makes things look as bad as possible. If you employ "data trackers" and can not even get the basics correct, I am left to believe you are not operating in good faith.

Similarly, the News and Observer for months ran with a chart of daily deaths that showed deaths as they were reported and not based on the date of the actual death. Same thing as WRAL. They are not operating in good faith and are only doing harm by misreporting data in this way.
I know a another source where WRAL could have gotten that information daily without even having to take the 5 minutes to handle the daily download.

I am almost glad (no, I am glad) that I missed that segment.
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statefan91
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2:58p, 3/12/21
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ncsualum05
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In reply to Daviewolf83 • 3:02p, 3/12/21
Daviewolf83 said:
Some clear trends in NC:
  • Daily reported cases have declined for 63 straight days
  • Daily cases by specimen collection date have declined for 67 straight days
  • Daily number of people hospitalized due to Covid-19 has declined for 58 straight days
  • Daily deaths by date of death has declined for 56 straight days
  • Percent positive tests have declined for 67 straight days
Yesterday, NCDHHS described (see below) these very positive trends as "stable." Governor Cooper and Mandy Cohen (head of NCDHHS) continue to provide no clear guidelines for when restrictions can be further relaxed, despite these very positive trends in all key statistics.

No wonder people are losing trust in governments and what they are asking their citizens to continue to do.

Dark Winter?

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Daviewolf83
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3:09p, 3/12/21
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The rate of increase in vaccinations does appear to be slowing. I suspect this is due to:

1. Hitting limits on supply of doses. Until the J&J vaccines really begin to ramp in April, I suspect the daily gains will continue to be modest.
2. Physical capacity of getting shots in arms. The states have to continue to find creative avenues to increase vaccine access - particularly to the underserved communities where transportation is likely an issue.
3. Starting to bump up against the people who have no interest in getting a vaccine - particularly as they continue to vaccinate the 65+ age group. They have made tremendous progress in this age group, but they are likely getting close to vaccinating all those in this age group who are willing to be vaccinated.

I do believe we will hit 100M doses delivered in Biden's term around March 25 and we are on track to hit 155-160M doses in his first 100 days.

The graph below is a logarithmic scale that helps to show the rate of increase in daily vaccinations. You can see from the graph how the increases appear to be heading toward a leveling off.

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packgrad
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4:34p, 3/12/21
I've had 3 close friends get vaccines from clinics with excess in just the last 2 weeks. 2 J&J, 1 Moderna. Had other friends get theirs too, but don't know which ones they got. Seems there is plenty out there if you want one.
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Daviewolf83
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5:06p, 3/12/21
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Adding to my earlier post, the graph below is a logarithmic plot showing the growth rate in the number of people 65+ vaccinated in NC. The blue line shows the cumulative vaccinations for those aged 65+ and the orange line shows the approximate number of people aged 65+ living in NC (~1.75M). I focused on this age group, since it is he age group most significantly at risk from Covid-19 and as a result, it was an early focus for vaccination efforts.

As you can see, the number of people being vaccinated in this age group is basically flat and now very slowly approaching the upper limit of 1.75M people. This is what I mean by the slowing of vaccinations for this age group. Some of the people in this age group could have an access issue (transportation, inability to schedule appointment, etc), but it can also be due to a reluctance to become vaccinated.

The good news is approximately 1.18M people in this age group have been vaccinated. We just need to find a way to get the remaining 500,000 people in this age group vaccinated as soon as possible.




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PackBacker07
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6:37p, 3/13/21
This seems good, yes?

Y'all means ALL.
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Daviewolf83
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In reply to PackBacker07 • 8:10p, 3/13/21
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PackBacker07 said:
This seems good, yes?

Yes. This is very good news, but I do not believe that many doses were administered in a single day. It is likely the J&J vaccine reporting kicking in, along with some backlogs. The good news is we are continuing to head toward 155-160M doses administered in 100 days of the Biden administration. The quicker we get doses in arms, the quicker we return to normal.

The other good news is 20M doses have been delivered to the federal government this week and these should start to be delivered next week. The surge in doses is finally starting to kick in.

Some other good news - my dad got his second dose yesterday. Unfortunately, he is having a bad reaction and says he feels like crap and has a fever. Hopefully, he starts to feel better tomorrow.
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