How old's your Dad, Davie?

Sorry to hear that, hopefully it's over soon for him. Mom and 96 year old grandmother got their second shots yesterday. Granny was fine, mom had some nausea and didn't feel great but says she's ok.

Civilized said:

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How old's your Dad, Davie?

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He is 86 and has some severe health conditions, including diabetes. I told him to take some Tylenol regularly and make sure he eats. When he does not eat regularly he has sugar issues. Hopefully, it will end by tomorrow. He said it hit early this afternoon (about 24 hours after vaccination).

We are officially still in Group 3 down here on the SE North Carolina coast... my wife is in Group 3 and I am in Group 4. We tried to get her scheduled yesterday morning and every official avenue in three (3) counties (ours, the one to the south and the one to the north) was out of appointments for the next five (5) days for shots.

Sounds like getting an appointment for a shot is kind of like trying to buy concert tickets through Ticketmaster from back in the day!

Daviewolf83 said:

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Civilized said:

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How old's your Dad, Davie?

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He is 86 and has some severe health conditions, including diabetes. I told him to take some Tylenol regularly and make sure he eats. When he does not eat regularly he has sugar issues. Hopefully, it will end by tomorrow. He said it hit early this afternoon (about 24 hours after vaccination).

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Hopefully he's feeling better and is back to his old self this week!

TheStorm said:

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We are officially still in Group 3 down here on the SE North Carolina coast... my wife is in Group 3 and I am in Group 4. We tried to get her scheduled yesterday morning and every official avenue in three (3) counties (ours, the one to the south and the one to the north) was out of appointments for the next five (5) days for shots.

Sounds like getting an appointment for a shot is kind of like trying to buy concert tickets through Ticketmaster from back in the day!

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Storm, I don't know if you will see this in time, but there are currently shots available via Walgreens in Leland for Tuesday-Friday of this week.

wilmwolf80 said:

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TheStorm said:

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We are officially still in Group 3 down here on the SE North Carolina coast... my wife is in Group 3 and I am in Group 4. We tried to get her scheduled yesterday morning and every official avenue in three (3) counties (ours, the one to the south and the one to the north) was out of appointments for the next five (5) days for shots.

Sounds like getting an appointment for a shot is kind of like trying to buy concert tickets through Ticketmaster from back in the day!

---

Storm, I don't know if you will see this in time, but there are currently shots available via Walgreens in Leland for Tuesday-Friday of this week.

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Walgreens, go in and ask to be put on the list for leftover shots...when a vile is open and they don't have enough appointments. We did and got J & J shots within 48 hours. Also helped that we were willing to take the J & J shot as the pharmacist said a lot of folks don't want it.

Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

PackPA2015 said:

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Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

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I don't know but after shot #2 I'll give it a few days and then the mask is coming off for good as far as I'm concerned. If they don't like it....

PackPA2015 said:

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Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

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I believe most mandates should already be removed (and common sense used). Governors have WAY overstepped their bounds in the last year and, whether for right or wrong, have abused their powers. There has been ample time (in the past YEAR!!!!) to codify, if necessary, any specific measures.

As I have said before, regardless of % vaccinated, the absolute second that vaccine demand outpaces supply ANY and EVERY executive order that is still remaining in place should IMMEDIATELY be rescinded.

PackPA2015 said:

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Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

---

As I mentioned in a previous post (included a graph to demonstrate my point), I am starting to see slowing in administration of shots for the 65+ age group. There are approximately 500K people in NC in this age group who have still not received a single dose (based on my calculations using NCDHHS data). I think this is not totally related to hesitancy, but is due in part to access issues (home bound, lack of transportation, can't schedule online, etc) and people in more rural areas. I do believe vaccine hesitancy will also impact some uptake for this age group as well.

With regards to the other age groups, I do not see the flattening trends yet, so we definitely have upside. Personally, I think the percentage of population that will get the vaccine initially will be in the 50% range and I think it will move to 70% as people see how effective the vaccine is and the providers are able to reach those people who are more difficult to get to an administration site. I would point out that the Bloomberg percentage of total population calculation includes the entire population, including age groups (less than 16 years old) that are currently not eligible for vaccination. As a result, the percentage of the NC population vaccinated is higher than what the Bloomberg tracker is reporting.

I really think 70% is the likely plateau, based on some recent polling I saw late last week. Unfortunately, the vaccine has become political and it also is impacted by the anti-vax community. One of the leading anti-vaxers is Alex Berenson. He has become rather popular on Twitter and is also very popular with the anti-vax community. Quite frankly, he is providing very bad and misleading (I am being kind here) information with the sole purpose of decreasing the number of people getting the vaccines. If you are following him with regards to vaccines, I would encourage you to reconsider. There are much better people you should follow on Twitter as it regards vaccines.

Civilized said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Civilized said:

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How old's your Dad, Davie?

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He is 86 and has some severe health conditions, including diabetes. I told him to take some Tylenol regularly and make sure he eats. When he does not eat regularly he has sugar issues. Hopefully, it will end by tomorrow. He said it hit early this afternoon (about 24 hours after vaccination).

---

Hopefully he's feeling better and is back to his old self this week!

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Thanks for the positive thoughts. The good news is that my dad began to feel better yesterday evening, about 24 hours from the onset of the symptoms. Thankfully, this is what I told him would likely happen, so I am happy to have been right. He used Tylenol to manage the fever and he said the fever finally broke late yesterday. He was still a little tired, but I think that is just from being uncomfortable and not sleeping well the night before.

So the timeline for him was an onset of symptoms (fever, aches, no appetite) approximately 24 hours after receiving his second dose (his first dose only resulted in a sore arm for a day) and recovery from the symptoms roughly 24 to 28 hours after the onset of symptoms. By the way, he did receive the Moderna vaccine. My wife had her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine two weeks ago today and she only had a little soreness at the point of injection for about 24 hours, but she has had some lingering redness on her skin (about the size of a silver dollar), since her injection. It does not hurt and she is not concerned about it at all.

Daviewolf83 said:

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PackPA2015 said:

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Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

---

As I mentioned in a previous post (included a graph to demonstrate my point), I am starting to see slowing in administration of shots for the 65+ age group. There are approximately 500K people in NC in this age group who have still not received a single dose (based on my calculations using NCDHHS data). I think this is not totally related to hesitancy, but is due in part to access issues (home bound, lack of transportation, can't schedule online, etc) and people in more rural areas. I do believe vaccine hesitancy will also impact some uptake for this age group as well.

With regards to the other age groups, I do not see the flattening trends yet, so we definitely have upside. Personally, I think the percentage of population that will get the vaccine initially will be in the 50% range and I think it will move to 70% as people see how effective the vaccine is and the providers are able to reach those people who are more difficult to get to an administration site. I would point out that the Bloomberg percentage of total population calculation includes the entire population, including age groups (less than 16 years old) that are currently not eligible for vaccination. As a result, the percentage of the NC population vaccinated is higher than what the Bloomberg tracker is reporting.

I really think 70% is the likely plateau, based on some recent polling I saw late last week. Unfortunately, the vaccine has become political and it also is impacted by the anti-vax community. One of the leading anti-vaxers is Alex Berenson. He has become rather popular on Twitter and is also very popular with the anti-vax community. Quite frankly, he is providing very bad and misleading (I am being kind here) information with the sole purpose of decreasing the number of people getting the vaccines. If you are following him with regards to vaccines, I would encourage you to reconsider. There are much better people you should follow on Twitter as it regards vaccines.

---

Ah, I did not realize that. I am sure you had mentioned that previously in your posts. Good to know. I am sure it would be difficult to subtract out that population, but would be nice to know of vaccine eligible individuals, what percentage have we reached.

My wife is finally eligible, but she has not been able to get scheduled the past week. Any tips for finding availability in Wake county (Cary)?

PackPA2015 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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PackPA2015 said:

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Per Bloomberg, 20.9% of NC residents have had a dose of the vaccine with 11.6% being fully vaccinated. 80% of doses have been used. NC is 9th in daily rate of doses administered which is a great sign.

I would love to see 50% of the population have at least one dose, especially before dropping the mask mandate (I know, up for debate). I do not know if we reach a plateau before that number? When will we reach the point where the people who are going to get the vaccine have already gotten it? Your guys' and gals' thoughts?

---

As I mentioned in a previous post (included a graph to demonstrate my point), I am starting to see slowing in administration of shots for the 65+ age group. There are approximately 500K people in NC in this age group who have still not received a single dose (based on my calculations using NCDHHS data). I think this is not totally related to hesitancy, but is due in part to access issues (home bound, lack of transportation, can't schedule online, etc) and people in more rural areas. I do believe vaccine hesitancy will also impact some uptake for this age group as well.

With regards to the other age groups, I do not see the flattening trends yet, so we definitely have upside. Personally, I think the percentage of population that will get the vaccine initially will be in the 50% range and I think it will move to 70% as people see how effective the vaccine is and the providers are able to reach those people who are more difficult to get to an administration site. I would point out that the Bloomberg percentage of total population calculation includes the entire population, including age groups (less than 16 years old) that are currently not eligible for vaccination. As a result, the percentage of the NC population vaccinated is higher than what the Bloomberg tracker is reporting.

I really think 70% is the likely plateau, based on some recent polling I saw late last week. Unfortunately, the vaccine has become political and it also is impacted by the anti-vax community. One of the leading anti-vaxers is Alex Berenson. He has become rather popular on Twitter and is also very popular with the anti-vax community. Quite frankly, he is providing very bad and misleading (I am being kind here) information with the sole purpose of decreasing the number of people getting the vaccines. If you are following him with regards to vaccines, I would encourage you to reconsider. There are much better people you should follow on Twitter as it regards vaccines.

---

Ah, I did not realize that. I am sure you had mentioned that previously in your posts. Good to know. I am sure it would be difficult to subtract out that population, but would be nice to know of vaccine eligible individuals, what percentage have we reached.

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NC is currently not showing anyone under the age of 18 being vaccinated on the NCDHHS reporting. As a result, I can roughly calculate the percentage of the population of eligible people vaccinated to be as follows:

• Received 1st Dose = 24.7% (aged 18+)
• Received Both Doses = 15.3% (aged 18+)

The current percentages are likely higher, since NC last updated their numbers last Thursday and Bloomberg is usually ahead of NC's updates. I used NCDHHS's latest updates, since it gave me a better breakdown of doses by age group.

If you are curious, here are the populations totals I used for the calculations:

• Total number of people in NC (US Census Bureau) = 10,488,084
• Number of people aged under 18 years old (US Census Bureau) = 2,296,890 (21.9% of population)

IseWolf22 said:

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My wife is finally eligible, but she has not been able to get scheduled the past week. Any tips for finding availability in Wake county (Cary)?

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Like someone has suggested, call around to some Walgreens in your area and ask to be put on their waiting list to receive any available doses they may have toward the end of each day. They have no-shows and at the end of each day, many Walgreens will have available doses that need to go in arms. You just need to be able to go to the Walgreens when they contact you.

Appreciate it Davie!

As was reported last week and over the weekend, many EU countries are now suspending use of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, following reports of blood clots in some patients receiving the vaccine. As most of you know, this vaccine is not approved for use in the US and is completing Phase 3 trials.

The AZ vaccine is one of the primary vaccines approved and in use by the EU. In fact, the EU is so desperate for increased vaccine supply, they have petitioned the US government to release some of the tens of millions of doses currently stockpiled in the US. At this point, it appears the vaccine rollout in the EU could be slowed by the current suspension. The EU was already lagging many other countries, including the US and the UK, so it is definitely an issue for their rollout.

You can read more on the current issue here:

Why Counties are Halting the AstraZeneca shot

My brother warned me from the beginning to stay away from the AZ vaccine because of all the issues they saw in data trials.

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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My brother warned me from the beginning to stay away from the AZ vaccine because of all the issues they saw in data trials.

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I expect the next vaccine to be approved in the US will be one from Novavax. It is currently tracking to be approved some time in April. In preliminary trial results, it has reported efficacy just short of 90%. I will be surprised if the AZ vaccine is approved for use in the US in the next couple of months.

Davie or anyone else, have you all seen any further info on a possible fourth wave in the Spring? This was predicted by several epidemiologists back in the winter. Obviously, it has not shown itself at this point. I've seen various theories as to why this has not occurred, but just wondering if you all had seen any resources that I had missed.

Off the top of your head, is the AZ vaccine a different tech than the mRNA or J&J vaccine, or is it just that they didn't do as good for a job with it?

PackPA2015 said:

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Davie or anyone else, have you all seen any further info on a possible fourth wave in the Spring? This was predicted by several epidemiologists back in the winter. Obviously, it has not shown itself at this point. I've seen various theories as to why this has not occurred, but just wondering if you all had seen any resources that I had missed.

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Hope-Simpson while not a perfect match, gives an idea of what seasonality looks like.

As with the winter waves, I would suspect it would matter where you are. My guess is the wave (primarily in the NE) was a little off 'peak' since the virus showed up 'mostly' in the latter part of the sweet spot for the winter season.

Virus wasn't fully seeded well enough to take advantage most places. Hit mainly the Southern states during its next 'sweet spot' in early summer. (Where in Hope-Simpson this is completely out of season for north temperate)

Ticked back into the late fall and rolled through the Plains states first as they reached their sweet spot and then rolled elsewhere throughout the winter hitting its natural peak.

If we get another peak, I would think it would be closer to early summer, but I would think it would be relatively insignificant due to existing immunities from both disease and vaccination.

Also, look up a map of U.S. climate zones (which there are a lot more than 2 for the US), and then cross reference case curves from states in each zone. There is relatively high correlation (regardless of NPI) with states that share similar climates.

Very interesting for sure. I agree that if it does occur, I think we will have enough vaccines administered to lessen the impact which will definitely depend on when (if) it occurs.

Worst case scenario would obviously be spike in cases, with still limited vaccine rates, with variants thrown in. Trends are not in that direction as of now which is great.

Thanks for the info!

Spring break (for public schools more so than colleges, as many colleges have done away with them for this year) is fast approaching. It will be interesting to see if that causes a spike in numbers or not.

PackPA2015 said:

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Davie or anyone else, have you all seen any further info on a possible fourth wave in the Spring? This was predicted by several epidemiologists back in the winter. Obviously, it has not shown itself at this point. I've seen various theories as to why this has not occurred, but just wondering if you all had seen any resources that I had missed.

---

I did see a story in the past week (I can't find it now), reporting the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) had backed off of their prediction of a fourth wave. Back in February, they were projecting a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections. Their latest model (see below) does show a flattening of cases in the US, but no spike or fourth Wave. Additionally, the CDC has recently predicted a fourth wave, driven primarily by Spring Break travel of college students and some families.

I personally believe some of the worries are over-blown, considering many universities (such as my son's) have eliminated Spring Break from the academic calendar this year. Additionally, the fact many of the people in this age group may have already had Covid-19 should weigh into the assessment. I think the vaccine rollout will help to limit their chances of exposing others - particularly those people age 65+. I hope I am right about the lower chance of infection for those aged 65+.

As many know, the IHME is the group that provided one of the main models used by many states and the Federal government in the early months of the pandemic. Their model was used to predict the impact of Covid-19 on hospital capacity (beds, ventilators, etc) and deaths. I tracked their model for several months, but stopped when it became obvious that their model was over-estimating impacts, particularly for NC, even when it was adjusted for new variables.


IHME Case Projections for the US (purple line is the most likely):




Link to IHME Model for the US

Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

ncsualum05 said:

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Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

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46-52% from 14 days to 20 days.

Pfizer Data

NEJM Data on Pfizer

ncsualum05 said:

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Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

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Approximately 52% efficacy after first dose, per FDA documents. In a study out of Israel, it was 46% effective in preventing infection after the first dose. In the same study, it was 72% effective in preventing death and 74% effective in preventing hospitalization.

It generally takes about 14 to 20 days to reach this point of efficacy.

Daviewolf83 said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

---

Approximately 52% efficacy after first dose, per FDA documents. In a study out of Israel, it was 46% effective in preventing infection after the first dose. In the same study, it was 72% effective in preventing death and 74% effective in preventing hospitalization.

It generally takes about 14 to 20 days to reach this point of efficacy.

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Have you seen anything official on Moderna/Pfizer 1 dose for those who have had COVID already? I got Moderna shot #1 yesterday but they didn't sign me up for dose 2 yet because I got in off of a back-up list at a pharmacy.

statefan91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

---

Approximately 52% efficacy after first dose, per FDA documents. In a study out of Israel, it was 46% effective in preventing infection after the first dose. In the same study, it was 72% effective in preventing death and 74% effective in preventing hospitalization.

It generally takes about 14 to 20 days to reach this point of efficacy.

---

Have you seen anything official on Moderna/Pfizer 1 dose for those who have had COVID already? I got Moderna shot #1 yesterday but they didn't sign me up for dose 2 yet because I got in off of a back-up list at a pharmacy.

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I don't think we have that data yet. There is one very small study in which antibodies were measured. Antibody levels in individuals who tested positive for COVID previously were ten-fold higher after 1 dose of vaccine as compared to COVID negative individuals after their second dose. The antibody response also started building sooner than in COVID negative individuals.

However, it was not studied how long these antibodies lasted at that level or what effect they had in reducing risk of COVID transmission.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653v1.full.pdf

PackPA2015 said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Update: Got Pfizer dose 1. Felt less invasive than a flu vaccine. No soreness but I anticipate some of that tomorrow or the next day. They wanted me back for dose 2 on April 5th but I delayed it to April 12th b/c my kids are off school Easter week and we are going to be at the beach.

Can anyone in the know remind me of the effectiveness % of Pfizer dose 1 and how long it takes to achieve it?

---

46-52% from 14 days to 20 days.

Pfizer Data

NEJM Data on Pfizer

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Thank you!

I know someone earlier had discussed traveling to Europe in the summer. This looks like an even worse chance now. Cases are surging likely due to the B.1.1.7 variant and very poor vaccination rates. Italy, in particular, has just announced new lockdowns during the Easter holidays. Italy had the second highest increase in deaths yesterday just behind Russia. Third highest increase in daily cases behind India and Turkey. Hopefully, they get a hold of these numbers soon.

Italy Increasing Restrictions



Just had a patient call into our office. She had confirmed COVID in December and had both doses of the Pfizer vaccine. 1 month after her second dose, she fell ill and tested positive for COVID for the 2nd time. Her test/respiratory sample have been sent to the CDC for further evaluation. She has more significant symptoms this go round as compared to the first. Currently hospitalized. Not on a vent at this time, thank goodness. Talk about losing the luck lottery.