This is very good news. The change in formatting may take me a little longer to input the data for cases and deaths, but it does give us an idea as to the lag in reporting for deaths. For example, NC reported 30 new deaths yesterday, but it appears only 6 of those 30 are from 5/18.Wayland said:
NC redid their stats page. We now have Deaths by Date of Death!
I have updated the spreadsheet and have entered the current death by date information. I will have the first update showing lags today, after the data is updated on the site. I assume they will be updating at 11am, but based on the new format, they could make it more real-time (not holding my breath). I am also looking at the underlying code (since they are using Tableau and placing it using an iFrame) to see I can automatically feed the data into the spreadsheet. I will play around with that tonight.Wayland said:
Will be interesting to track how those deaths lag. Getting the data setup to track changes is going to take a little time.
I appreciate the thoroughness of this piece and links to source material. I echo Daviewolf, y'all should read this one.Daviewolf83 said:
If you do not read anything else today, please read the following article. It details the 2006 origins of the lock-down strategy employed to fight the coronavirus. It is fascinating to understand that the origin of the strategy is a school project conducted by the 14 year old daughter of a scientist. The article includes information on the push-back the strategy received at the time. You will definitely recognize the issues raised by many smart people.
The author writes the following:
"What's truly surprising is just how recent the theory behind lockdown and forced distancing actually is. So far as anyone can tell, the intellectual machinery that made this mess was invented 14 years ago, and not by epidemiologists but by computer-simulation modelers. It was adopted not by experienced doctors they warned ferociously against it but by politicians."
The 2006 Origins of the Lock-down Idea
Daviewolf83 said:
If you do not read anything else today, please read the following article. It details the 2006 origins of the lock-down strategy employed to fight the coronavirus. It is fascinating to understand that the origin of the strategy is a school project conducted by the 14 year old daughter of a scientist. The article includes information on the push-back the strategy received at the time. You will definitely recognize the issues raised by many smart people.
The author writes the following:
"What's truly surprising is just how recent the theory behind lockdown and forced distancing actually is. So far as anyone can tell, the intellectual machinery that made this mess was invented 14 years ago, and not by epidemiologists but by computer-simulation modelers. It was adopted not by experienced doctors they warned ferociously against it but by politicians."
The 2006 Origins of the Lock-down Idea
5/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily totalWayland said:5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547
400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)
122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths
622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.
Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.
Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).
Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.
NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586
407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths
853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.
High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.
NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944
413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths
530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.
DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.
NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755
415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths
511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.
Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.
NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.
All the lagging congregate deaths.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.
NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008
439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)
130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)
WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719
422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm
All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.
A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?
Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
wilmwolf80 said:Daviewolf83 said:
If you do not read anything else today, please read the following article. It details the 2006 origins of the lock-down strategy employed to fight the coronavirus. It is fascinating to understand that the origin of the strategy is a school project conducted by the 14 year old daughter of a scientist. The article includes information on the push-back the strategy received at the time. You will definitely recognize the issues raised by many smart people.
The author writes the following:
"What's truly surprising is just how recent the theory behind lockdown and forced distancing actually is. So far as anyone can tell, the intellectual machinery that made this mess was invented 14 years ago, and not by epidemiologists but by computer-simulation modelers. It was adopted not by experienced doctors they warned ferociously against it but by politicians."
The 2006 Origins of the Lock-down Idea
Damn. I'd share this on social media, but I don't feel like getting yelled at over the internet today. Fascinating.
Wayland said:
Bars and gyms staying closed... ouch.
Pools can open at 50% capacity. They need to get the actual order posted.
statefan91 said:
Interested in the full order - Charlotte has a lot of breweries that have food on site but might not be restaurants technically
Daviewolf83 said:
Gyms not opening in NC is huge. My son has teammates in South Carolina and Georgia who are able to go to gyms now and workout. I guess I need to send him to one of those states to live, since gyms in NC will not open for another five weeks (this includes bars too).
People need to push back. We are adults and should be able to make choices. I am not a gym guy, but you allow salons to open. So haircuts are more important than physical health?packgrad said:Daviewolf83 said:
Gyms not opening in NC is huge. My son has teammates in South Carolina and Georgia who are able to go to gyms now and workout. I guess I need to send him to one of those states to live, since gyms in NC will not open for another five weeks (this includes bars too).
It says he can make modifications at any time. Even knowing that, if I'm a bar owner, gym owner, etc, I say **** Cooper and open anyway.
It isn't like Cooper is making these decision on his own. Based on how he talks in the press conferences, I am not sure he can comprehend the data on any real level.packgrad said:
I read this article on Fox and thought for sure gyms would be opening.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces
Screw Governor Cooper. We need to open up! I hope Planet Fitness and the rest give him a big FU and do open.packgrad said:Daviewolf83 said:
Gyms not opening in NC is huge. My son has teammates in South Carolina and Georgia who are able to go to gyms now and workout. I guess I need to send him to one of those states to live, since gyms in NC will not open for another five weeks (this includes bars too).
It says he can make modifications at any time. Even knowing that, if I'm a bar owner, gym owner, etc, I say **** Cooper and open anyway.
Wayland said:It isn't like Cooper is making these decision on his own. Based on how he talks in the press conferences, I am not sure he can comprehend the data on any real level.packgrad said:
I read this article on Fox and thought for sure gyms would be opening.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces
King Leary said:
Were entertainment venues not originally supposed to be part of phase 2??
We know the jump in cases over the weekend included cases that were over a week old (over 200 cases) and cases from the middle of the week. It was a data dump of cases.Wayland said:
Cooper left additional restrictions in because of that jump in cases last weekend was 'concerning'. It is obvious they are now fudging case numbers anyway. There is no longer any randomness to their data and it is being grouped for narrative.
It was suspect the other day when they posted new cases and overall tests. Then took it down, only to later report more new cases but no additional tests.
Even the numbers at today's briefing didn't align with the morning update which they have done EVERY single briefing until today.
Here's the latest case data, showing cases by the date the specimen was taken and the date the data was released to the public. It is a good way of seeing the lags in the data. As I pointed out earlier, the 1,,000+ cases over the weekend was a massive data dump that included data from over 10 days prior.Wayland said:
Right, I contend they did that to create the illusion of a peak to walk down from.
We can see from their own site that deaths peaked a month ago. It is just a slow decline due to plateau. And the fact they are overcoding LTC deaths that are with COVID and not from COVID.
