Packchem91 said:

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82TxPackFan said:

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Going to be pretty difficult to do contact tracing for these lagging reports.

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So do we know....with millions of folks across the land out of work, have state (or fed) governments been identifying candidates from that pool who would be good at these contact tracing jobs? I mean, surely since that has been discussed for many weeks as a critical need to implement to start up, positions are staffed and ready to go (if the data ever catches up)?

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North Carolina has 250 already and are in process of hiring 250 more for a total of 500. There was some discussion about training librarians across the state to do it as well. It is up to each state to implement test-and-trace.

Wayland said:

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Cooper still claiming not sure Phase 2 will be Friday or what it will entail.

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I'm curious to see if Cooper actually has a say in what opens come next weekend. I feel like we are getting closer daily to business owners opening anyway and people doing what they want. We are already seeing governors oosing court cases in regards to these orders coming down from State government

Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

Something rotten with NC testing numbers. They don't align with what the CDC has by almost 70k tests. Read the report for NC. Wonder if any media cares. I always wondered about individuals or specimens, but even that doesn't add up.

metcalfmafia said:

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Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

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In Wake County, I understand they can not open until May 30, regardless of any changes issued by Governor Coooper. I am not sure about other counties in NC. When they open, I believe mask wearing (when not in the water) is required and there are supposed to be fewer chairs and they are to be spaced out.

Daviewolf83 said:

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metcalfmafia said:

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Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

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In Wake County, I understand they can not open until May 30, regardless of any changes issued by Governor Coooper. I am not sure about other counties in NC. When they open, I believe mask wearing (when not in the water) is required and there are supposed to be fewer chairs and they are to be spaced out.

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A week or two ago, the Wake County inspector had told our pool manager that we were good to go as soon as Phase 2 was in place. Maybe there was a change in guidance, but I had thought Wake County had aligned with the state.

Would be a huge double standard since they are already allowing TAC and other pools to hold swim practice.

I am interested in pools and poolside areas as well. Seeing as our country club pool would normally open this weekend which it probably won't. But I'm curious. We have a beach trip planned in less than 3 weeks and there's a club on the island we go to with a big pool area. Kids pools, slides, regular pools.

This is such an informative thread and I appreciate all the information that people are posting. If anyone has any info regarding research done in relation to not only sitting out in the sun but chlorine in the pools and how it might kill the virus. My gut instinct tells me that being out on a hot sunny day and also dipping into a chlorine filled pool would not be a great place for a virus to thrive. But there are tables, chairs, food, and other things to consider. Any info would be helpful.

Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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metcalfmafia said:

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Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

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In Wake County, I understand they can not open until May 30, regardless of any changes issued by Governor Coooper. I am not sure about other counties in NC. When they open, I believe mask wearing (when not in the water) is required and there are supposed to be fewer chairs and they are to be spaced out.

---

A week or two ago, the Wake County inspector had told our pool manager that we were good to go as soon as Phase 2 was in place. Maybe there was a change in guidance, but I had thought Wake County had aligned with the state.

Would be a huge double standard since they are already allowing TAC and other pools to hold swim practice.

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It is possible they will open sooner. I was surprised when I saw the report on WRAL this morning. They were basically saying the pools in Wake County had more time to implement the restrictions, since they were not able to open until May 30 (they actually said this date). WRAL may have missed an update and could be reporting old information.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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metcalfmafia said:

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Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

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In Wake County, I understand they can not open until May 30, regardless of any changes issued by Governor Coooper. I am not sure about other counties in NC. When they open, I believe mask wearing (when not in the water) is required and there are supposed to be fewer chairs and they are to be spaced out.

---

A week or two ago, the Wake County inspector had told our pool manager that we were good to go as soon as Phase 2 was in place. Maybe there was a change in guidance, but I had thought Wake County had aligned with the state.

Would be a huge double standard since they are already allowing TAC and other pools to hold swim practice.

---

It is possible they will open sooner. I was surprised when I saw the report on WRAL this morning. They were basically saying the pools in Wake County had more time to implement the restrictions, since they were not able to open until May 30 (they actually said this date). WRAL may have missed an update and could be reporting old information.

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I just watched that segment. It looks like that May 30th date is for the City of Raleigh pools. So hopefully other pools will be good to go.

I think I mentioned before, the pool we belong to (private member owned club, not HOA) has put a lot of effort and thought into their plan. With around 30 socially distanced seating areas that will be available first come first served on weekdays and can be reserved on weekends for 2 hour blocks. Seats and tables will be cleaned between guests and bathrooms wiped down every 15 minutes. Just to throw a few highlights out there.

Again, I think one has to evaluate one's own risk. But I was impressed with the thought and effort the pool I belong to was going to based on existing guidelines.

I am not saying I am rushing out this weekend to go, but I know my son is looking forward to being able to swim early morning laps to workout again.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

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5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

---

5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

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5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755

415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths

511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.

Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

All the lagging congregate deaths.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.

Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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metcalfmafia said:

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Pools gonna be good to go by Monday?

---

In Wake County, I understand they can not open until May 30, regardless of any changes issued by Governor Coooper. I am not sure about other counties in NC. When they open, I believe mask wearing (when not in the water) is required and there are supposed to be fewer chairs and they are to be spaced out.

---

A week or two ago, the Wake County inspector had told our pool manager that we were good to go as soon as Phase 2 was in place. Maybe there was a change in guidance, but I had thought Wake County had aligned with the state.

Would be a huge double standard since they are already allowing TAC and other pools to hold swim practice.

---

It is possible they will open sooner. I was surprised when I saw the report on WRAL this morning. They were basically saying the pools in Wake County had more time to implement the restrictions, since they were not able to open until May 30 (they actually said this date). WRAL may have missed an update and could be reporting old information.

---

I just watched that segment. It looks like that May 30th date is for the City of Raleigh pools. So hopefully other pools will be good to go.

I think I mentioned before, the pool we belong to (private member owned club, not HOA) has put a lot of effort and thought into their plan. With around 30 socially distanced seating areas that will be available first come first served on weekdays and can be reserved on weekends for 2 hour blocks. Seats and tables will be cleaned between guests and bathrooms wiped down every 15 minutes. Just to throw a few highlights out there.

Again, I think one has to evaluate one's own risk. But I was impressed with the thought and effort the pool I belong to was going to based on existing guidelines.

I am not saying I am rushing out this weekend to go, but I know my son is looking forward to being able to swim early morning laps to workout again.

---

Unfortunately, I live in Raleigh and the health club/gym I belong to is in Raleigh (it has a pool). I think the plans you outlined for your pool make sense and do not seem to be too cumbersome. As long as people are outside and distanced, I think people will be fine (based on the available research). I will not be going to a pool (too much skin cancer in my past - I was a life guard for a couple of years in college), but I do want my gym/health club to open up. My son is still working out in our garage and doing bike rides to try and stay in football shape, so having access to a gym will be a big plus for him.

Hospitalizations up doesn't bode well for Phase 2 by Friday. Ole Roy is looking for any reason to extend while all the other states around us move forward.

PossumJenkins said:

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Hospitalizations up doesn't bode well for Phase 2 by Friday. Ole Roy is looking for any reason to extend while all the other states around us move forward.

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I don't think so - I think he sees the writing on the wall and knows that if he tries to extend Phase 1 that it'll be met with pretty severe criticism and reaction.

PossumJenkins said:

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Hospitalizations up doesn't bode well for Phase 2 by Friday. Ole Roy is looking for any reason to extend while all the other states around us move forward.

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I was expecting it, given what was reported yesterday and that percent hospitals reporting yesterday was low.

But again, we are given ABSOLUTELY no insight into what that number means. All sorts of other states give tons of stats, like new patients, patients released, ICU numbers, ventilator numbers. NC gets jack all for details.

New Meck Data.

Cases up:



Percent Positive Down:



Percent of deaths connected to LTC rising.

Jump in Hospitalizations. Wonder what that +15 delta in one day was.



Less social distancing.

I feel like I've seen e-mails from Charlotte Observer mentioning new nursing home outbreaks, wouldn't be surprised if those are tied together.

I did see people in Charlotte are heading to South Carolina for haircuts. Reportedly, the wait for an appointment can be as long as 9 hours (from the time you logon to signup). I saw this in a Twitter post by reporter Brett Jensen.

Also, the NC Covid tracking page crashed this morning, just after it was updated. First it said "Access Denied", then it cam back up, but with yesterday's information. So much for getting the case tracking information I record each day. I do not have much faith in NC fixing the information today.

I copied the Congregate settings data out, but don't usually track the cases over time, etc.

Wayland said:

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I copied the Congregate settings data out, but don't usually track the cases over time, etc.

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There is a chart that tracks cases by sample date and it is updated daily. The daily changes closely match the daily updates in total cases, so it is a good way of trying to track the lags in reporting. It is how I generated the following graph. I started tracking it on 5/9.

The numbers DHHS is reporting at the briefing are different that what was posted this morning. Had 200-300 more positives and 9 more deaths. But without the full picture I can't update accordingly.

EDIT: DHHS Just updated.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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5/15/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,129
NC Deaths**
641
Currently Hospitalized
492
Completed Tests
231,547

400 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

187 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
454 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+20)

122 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 654 (+2) and NandO is at 661 deaths

622 positive cases over 12279 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS is caught up to media as of this morning. Right after DHHS posted media increased totals.

Highest 2 day total of reported cases, but also third straight day over 8000 tests over 12k today! (but most of this data is lagged). Percent positive is still within a reasonable range.

Positive that hospitalizations are still stable/slightly below where they have been at their peak 2 weeks ago. While this data is incomplete, take it for its trend value (since this week has had a relatively high reporting hospital rate at over 90%.. 94% today).

Apparently Chatham County added 13 death as part of today's total, going from 11 to 24 deaths in the county. Will be interesting to see where that backlog came from.

---

5/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
17,982
NC Deaths**
652
Currently Hospitalized
481
Completed Tests
238,586

407 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+11 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

192 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
460 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

128 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)

WRAL is at 661 (+2) and NandO is at 675 deaths

853 positive cases over 7039 new tests. 12.1% positive rate.

High number of cases, high positives today! Kind of balances out yesterday's low positive %. Around 200 of those cases out of congregate facilities.
DHHS falling behind media on numbers of deaths.

---

5/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
18,512
NC Deaths**
659
Currently Hospitalized
493
Completed Tests
248,944

413 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
466 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

129 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 667 (+2) and NandO is at 684 deaths

530 positive cases over 10358 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

DHHS still lagging.
Despite over 500 new cases today, 5.1% is a decently low rate.

---

5/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,023
NC Deaths**
661
Currently Hospitalized
511
Completed Tests
255,755

415 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
53 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

193 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
468 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 674 (+2) and NandO is at 691 deaths

511 positive cases over 6811 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Would like to see positive cases lower. Would also like to see the hospitalization number come down, but I still feel we need a much better breakdown on what that number is. ICU vs non-ICU. New admits vs recovered cases....but it is what it is.

Also expect a HUGE dump tomorrow as deaths are lagging at a ridiculous pace at the moment.

---

5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
19,445
NC Deaths**
682
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

433 Deaths are now Congregate (+18)
54 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

195 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
487 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

133 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 709

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate.

All the lagging congregate deaths.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.1
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5
DHHS has taken down their morning update. Will change numbers if they update differently.

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5/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am) <- Revised based on 2pm for Daily total

NC Cases*
19,700
NC Deaths**
691
Currently Hospitalized
585
Completed Tests
265,008

439 Deaths are now Congregate (+24)
56 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

196 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
495 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+27)

130 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (0)

WRAL is at 687 (+2) and NandO is at 719

422 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 4.7% positive rate. <- 11am
677 positive cases over 9253 new tests. 7.3% positive rate. <- 2pm

All the lagging congregate deaths. Based on NandO death totals, counties posting lag numbers all over.

A little concerned on the hospitalizations, not too though. Would love to see where those cases are originating, if it is just congregate cases moving to hospitals. What is the ICU numbers? Who is going in and out?

Since listed as separate categories on April 19th.
Per Day Average Death by Location:
Congregate: 12.3
Unknown : 1.2
General: 3.5

Is it just me but masks while you are sitting on the deck seems a little too far. Going to be hot as all get out and going to be some funny looking tan lines in a few weeks. Plus it will hinder getting alcohol on board efficiently.

Phase 1 guidance was put out on the Tuesday before. Today's briefing had nothing about Phase 2 guidance other than it is coming later this week.

If it isn't out by tomorrow, I am guessing Phase 2 would be Monday at the earliest.

Wayland said:

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Phase 1 guidance was put out on the Tuesday before. Today's briefing had nothing about Phase 2 guidance other than it is coming later this week.

If it isn't out by tomorrow, I am guessing Phase 2 would be Monday at the earliest.

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Seems like pushing it a weekend wouldn't really be worth it. Feels like they would bump it a week to 5/29 if it's not 5/22.

This seems significant.

statefan91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Phase 1 guidance was put out on the Tuesday before. Today's briefing had nothing about Phase 2 guidance other than it is coming later this week.

If it isn't out by tomorrow, I am guessing Phase 2 would be Monday at the earliest.

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Seems like pushing it a weekend wouldn't really be worth it. Feels like they would bump it a week to 5/29 if it's not 5/22.

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By pushing the weekend you don't push the whole weekend restaurants, bars, pools, salons, etc to avoid a big holiday weekend crush.

Which will come if they announce Phase 2. Which had they paid any attention to weeks ago they would have realized and gone to Phase 1 when the original order expired at the end of April.

If they push it a week, they lose control.

Off topic: I still think coming down the back side of this slope there, when the CDC reconciles things there will be a whole lot of people not dying of other things that should be. Or we may be running out of excess deaths to attribute to COVID.

Interesting that they used the website crash today to update the site with new numbers. As you would expect, today's case update represents another "data dump", with cases as far back as 5/7. This means people tested on 5/7 being reported today. A large portion of the new cases (281 positive cases) are from testing conducted on 5/14 and 5/15. They really have to clean up these delays in testing to fully implement test-and-trace. As I mentioned in a previous thread, it is hard to tell if this is just late reporting coming in from the labs or just delays in clerical entry. I have attached an updated graph below that shows cases based on specimen date. This will show you the delays in testing (the colored bars represent the day the cases were reported).

I live in a McConnell community. I received 2 emails that they plan to open pools and clubhouses for dining next week. One email was from McConnell LLC. The other was from our specific community. This gives me hope.

packgrad said:

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I live in a McConnell community. I received 2 emails that they plan to open pools and clubhouses for dining next week. One email was from McConnell LLC. The other was from our specific community. This gives me hope.

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What city? I live in an apartment in Raleigh and haven't received anything.

Durham, but the McConnell LLC office is in Raleigh.

I'm pretty surprised but happy to be wrong

My neighborhood pool is telling us that they can re-open this weekend but won't until they get specific guidelines from the state/county/city. Bummer Summer.

If you do not read anything else today, please read the following article. It details the 2006 origins of the lock-down strategy employed to fight the coronavirus. It is fascinating to understand that the origin of the strategy is a school project conducted by the 14 year old daughter of a scientist. The article includes information on the push-back the strategy received at the time. You will definitely recognize the issues raised by many smart people.

The author writes the following:

"What's truly surprising is just how recent the theory behind lockdown and forced distancing actually is. So far as anyone can tell, the intellectual machinery that made this mess was invented 14 years ago, and not by epidemiologists but by computer-simulation modelers. It was adopted not by experienced doctors they warned ferociously against it but by politicians."


The 2006 Origins of the Lock-down Idea