Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...Wayland said:Packchem91 said:How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.Wayland said:
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
But they stayed active....
My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden's Government Site:
Their ICU numbers are declining
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
I was going to post about this earlier, but did not have time. I am somewhat skeptical, but it would go a long way to explain why younger people are not getting the virus and if they are, their symptoms are mild to non-existent. There has to be a reason for this to happen. If you think about it, most all children for the past 30 years or so have received the MMR vaccine as a standard vaccine you get as an infant. As you get older, the antibodies produced by the vaccine lessen and in some cases, older people never received a measles vaccine. As a result, people under the age of 30 or 40 would be more likely to have some protection and older people would be the ones who are the least protected.Wayland said:
So somehow the first time I saw this one. And not that I believe it, but interesting in the correlation vs causation world.
Does MMR Vaccine Confer some level of protection from COVID-19? Take it all with a high degree of skepticism.
https://world.org/COVID-19
Very limited effect on their economy, since they have not shutdown major industries or restaurants. The biggest disruptions as I understand it, are more from outside and the impact it is having on countries that Swedish firms do business with.Packchem91 said:Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...Wayland said:Packchem91 said:How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.Wayland said:
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
But they stayed active....
My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden's Government Site:
Their ICU numbers are declining
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Thanks Davie -- that is interesting feedback. Makes sense about the economic impact being minimal - versus the complete havoc on the US (and likely many other countries) economic systems. Versus deaths.Daviewolf83 said:Very limited effect on their economy, since they have not shutdown major industries or restaurants. The biggest disruptions as I understand it, are more from outside and the impact it is having on countries that Swedish firms do business with.Packchem91 said:Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...Wayland said:Packchem91 said:How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.Wayland said:
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
But they stayed active....
My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden's Government Site:
Their ICU numbers are declining
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
I will point out that Sweden has also done poorly with the protection of nursing homes and this has been one of the biggest contributors to deaths in the country. Approximately 50% of the deaths in Sweden have been from nursing homes and they have been locked down as well. The head of their strategy admits to being surprised at the death toll, but still believes their strategy has been successful in many ways. He said they believed they could better protect people in the nursing homes and is surprised they have not been able to be more effective in this area.
packgrad said:
2/3 of new Covid19 cases in NYC are from people that have been staying at home.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html
There may be something to this idea. It would definitely be interesting to see the contract tracing analysis for these cases to better understand the vectors of infection.Everpack said:
I would bet everything I own multigenerational families living in tiny apartments is a factor in 90%+ of these numbers.
5/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440
196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)
124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths
380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.
149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.
Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036
212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths
561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832
229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths
414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475
245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths
586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.
102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835
246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths
155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.
42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439
252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.
184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.
NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800
263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)
150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)
104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths
408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
NC Cases*
12,758
NC Deaths**
477
Currently Hospitalized
516
Completed Tests
164,482
282 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 since yesterday)
41 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+25 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+21 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)
154 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
323 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)
107 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 493 (+2) and NandO is at 485 deaths
502 positive cases over 12682 new tests. 4.0% positive rate.
Every day I post these, I seethe a little when I see the Congregate number, knowing that that total is driving bad policy.
With regards to Congregate deaths, I watched a Zoom call last night that included the chief architect of Sweden's response (Johan Giesecke - one of the world's leading epidemiologists). On the call, he expressed his regret that they had not been able to better protect nursing homes. He said many of the experts had assumed we (the collective we) could have done a better job of protecting them and it has proven much more difficult than anticipated. He pointed out that is only takes one mistake in a nursing home environment that can lead to a breakout.Wayland said:
The overall positive rate was 5.9% for the last two days, which is well under the running average of ~8%. Which is good, in spite of the outbreaks.
On a side note for stats. Since the NC DHHS has started to report congregate/unknown cases on 4/18:
Average deaths per day:
12.8 Congregate
1.5 Unknown
3.7 General Population.
(Side note since I give NC a hard time about their congregate issues. New Jersey reported that their number of deaths at Long Term Care facilities exceeds 4500 as of today in over 500 facilities.... wow)
Trying to find that.statefan91 said:
Was 4/7 just a reporting catch-up day or something?
Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.Packchem91 said:Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.1985 NCSU Grad said:The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.Packchem91 said:Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
We have data now showing that the spread of the virus across the country originated from New York. Study in NY Times today points out that the outbreak in New Orleans came out of New York. The outbreak in south Florida came out of New York.Packchem91 said:Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.1985 NCSU Grad said:The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.Packchem91 said:Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day
Correct. Unfortunately, NYC needs mass transit to function, but it is the one thing that worries me more than anything else about opening up the city. NYC really needs to get test-and-trace up and running efficiently as quickly as possible or I am afraid it will go badly. I know they are shutting down the trains every night to deep clean them, but this will not address the people who walk through the stations and ride on the trains in close quarters. The same is true for Boston, DC, Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco.wilmwolf80 said:
"The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical. "
That describes much of NYC.
It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.Packchem91 said:Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.1985 NCSU Grad said:The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.Packchem91 said:Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day
Oh wow, holy mackerel My prayers with him, his shipmates, and your family. That must be horribly trying in your position with no real way to help.1985 NCSU Grad said:It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.Packchem91 said:Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.1985 NCSU Grad said:The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.Packchem91 said:Who is "They" in your comments?1985 NCSU Grad said:
They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.
They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.
and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day
But it also describes Hong Kong, Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, a dozen cities each in China/India, all the big old cities in Europe, Mexico City.wilmwolf80 said:
"The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical. "
That describes much of NYC.
According to this article, NYC isn't even in the top 50 in the world in pop density.wilmwolf80 said:
Well, without looking them all up, NYC population density is higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. It is also perhaps the most culturally diverse pace in the world. I think it is hard to compare across different countries, because different countries and cultures are much more likely to be easily controlled than a diverse, free population in the US. I could also point to the fact that NYC wouldn't impose travel restrictions, and actually promoted large gatherings of people when it was already becoming clear that this was going to be a big deal.
Sure....its semantics to a degree. And I saw where the surrounding cities like West NY, Hoboken, Union City, and Passaic are also extremely densely populated -- as in the highest in the country by far....just a lower total pop.wilmwolf80 said:
I don't know about that article, there seems to be variance on the numbers compared to where you look. What I said was based on the numbers listed at Wikipedia, which there, the population density of NYC is 26,403 people per square mile. Mexico City was 16,000, Hong Kong 17,000, Tokyo 16,000. Doesn't really matter though, it is by far the most dense city in the US.
It is trying but we get to "facetime" him - he is fine but you know how "moms" can be. Biggest thing is he is bored. He has shown no symptoms at all. He is ready to get back to flying. This was his 1st deployment - after graduating from NC State (ROTC), training for 3.5 years in Pensacola and then San Diego. It has been crazy for the Navy with this ordeal but it has been a great case to study in a very controlled environment.Packchem91 said:Oh wow, holy mackerel My prayers with him, his shipmates, and your family. That must be horribly trying in your position with no real way to help.1985 NCSU Grad said:Packchem91 said:Quote:
It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.
Well the Asian cultural standard of wearing masks early and often certainly helped. The general awareness of germs is much higher in the average person. When I went to Hong Kong and SE Asia it seemed over the top, but in these situations it helps.Packchem91 said:According to this article, NYC isn't even in the top 50 in the world in pop density.wilmwolf80 said:
Well, without looking them all up, NYC population density is higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. It is also perhaps the most culturally diverse pace in the world. I think it is hard to compare across different countries, because different countries and cultures are much more likely to be easily controlled than a diverse, free population in the US. I could also point to the fact that NYC wouldn't impose travel restrictions, and actually promoted large gatherings of people when it was already becoming clear that this was going to be a big deal.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/07/11/the-50-most-densely-populated-cities-in-the-world/39664259/
Now, I personally think your comment that I boldened is one of the major contributors in NYC and the US in general -- the "land of the free" truly is a cultural phenomenon. And extends to not only our daily activities but also to travel. Two related keys I wonder about:
1) do other major cities, at least outside Europe, have the press freedom / access to really have valid case and death numbers that is had in the US?
2) do ingress and egress travel occur in other cities to the degree they did in NYC?
