That has been a concern of mine all along. This has never been a political issue for me. There is enough blame for everyone to go around. Making it political detracts from the ability to have a reasoned discussion.Packchem91 said:I agree -- and I think much of that is because this thread has primarily focused on the data, rather than the sides of a political debate.wilmwolf80 said:
I appreciate the relative decorum with which this thread has been conducted. There are different view points here, but it's been a very reasonable, intelligent discussion. Unlike TOS, where they have a running death total in the thread title, and the same old characters shout down anyone with a non-apocalyptic viewpoint.
When you look at the numbers and the nuance of them, you can more easily work around the emotional part of the argument.
I'm concerned nationally though that its about to, if possible, get even more political as states open back up, and deaths / case counts increase, and one side swoops in to say "see, we told you so, but all you care about is $$$"...and then it really goes off the rails.
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Mecklenburg County just posted their data update for May 3rd (posted May 5)
https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-May-3.aspx
Huge positive that their hospitalizations continue to drop! The hilarity is the last graph they post (which I didn't link) is still that CHIME model saying they are going to need 1500+ hospital beds in July. Despite using about 50 now.
https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/Mecklenburg-County-COVID-19-Data-for-May-3.aspx
Huge positive that their hospitalizations continue to drop! The hilarity is the last graph they post (which I didn't link) is still that CHIME model saying they are going to need 1500+ hospital beds in July. Despite using about 50 now.
5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440
196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)
124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths
380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.
149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.
Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036
212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths
561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832
229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths
414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475
245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths
586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.
102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835
246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths
155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.
42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439
252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.
184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.
NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800
263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)
150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)
104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths
408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
This is true....after Ise and I stopped going back and forth you and Daviewolf showed up and made this thread worth followingWayland said:That has been a concern of mine all along. This has never been a political issue for me. There is enough blame for everyone to go around. Making it political detracts from the ability to have a reasoned discussion.Packchem91 said:I agree -- and I think much of that is because this thread has primarily focused on the data, rather than the sides of a political debate.wilmwolf80 said:
I appreciate the relative decorum with which this thread has been conducted. There are different view points here, but it's been a very reasonable, intelligent discussion. Unlike TOS, where they have a running death total in the thread title, and the same old characters shout down anyone with a non-apocalyptic viewpoint.
When you look at the numbers and the nuance of them, you can more easily work around the emotional part of the argument.
I'm concerned nationally though that its about to, if possible, get even more political as states open back up, and deaths / case counts increase, and one side swoops in to say "see, we told you so, but all you care about is $$$"...and then it really goes off the rails.
I contributed early on to some of the back and forth too - happy that this is focused on data and cutting through the BS that seems to come out in the media each day that is all doomsday scenarios.
Come on now, the back and forth is fun as long as everyone is aware we are just arguing on the internet (which by definition, is worthless)cowboypack02 said:This is true....after Ise and I stopped going back and forth you and Daviewolf showed up and made this thread worth followingWayland said:That has been a concern of mine all along. This has never been a political issue for me. There is enough blame for everyone to go around. Making it political detracts from the ability to have a reasoned discussion.Packchem91 said:I agree -- and I think much of that is because this thread has primarily focused on the data, rather than the sides of a political debate.wilmwolf80 said:
I appreciate the relative decorum with which this thread has been conducted. There are different view points here, but it's been a very reasonable, intelligent discussion. Unlike TOS, where they have a running death total in the thread title, and the same old characters shout down anyone with a non-apocalyptic viewpoint.
When you look at the numbers and the nuance of them, you can more easily work around the emotional part of the argument.
I'm concerned nationally though that its about to, if possible, get even more political as states open back up, and deaths / case counts increase, and one side swoops in to say "see, we told you so, but all you care about is $$$"...and then it really goes off the rails.
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WRAL just posted this alarming headline/article on Twitter:
Their article states the following:
"In 2018, 27 percent of people 1824, 36 percent of people 2549, 49 percent of people 5064 and 56 percent of people 65 and older had at least one underlying health condition that is a risk factor for serious illness from COVID-19."
I just responded to their Tweet with the following:
"Majority of people under age of 50 do NOT have an underlying health condition, based on your article. In NC, zero Covid-19 deaths for people under age of 24 in NC. Only 4% of deaths are people 25-49 years old. Risk is still to those over 65, where NC has seen 86% of deaths."
I am not sure how they get "majority" from percentages lower than 50%. i guess math is hard for them.
Their article states the following:
"In 2018, 27 percent of people 1824, 36 percent of people 2549, 49 percent of people 5064 and 56 percent of people 65 and older had at least one underlying health condition that is a risk factor for serious illness from COVID-19."
I just responded to their Tweet with the following:
"Majority of people under age of 50 do NOT have an underlying health condition, based on your article. In NC, zero Covid-19 deaths for people under age of 24 in NC. Only 4% of deaths are people 25-49 years old. Risk is still to those over 65, where NC has seen 86% of deaths."
I am not sure how they get "majority" from percentages lower than 50%. i guess math is hard for them.
The majority of adults in the state of NC are over 65 and have underlying health problems? FOH
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Davie/Wayland, what are your takeaways from the latest IHME model?
My gut is they are a little high. The only regional deaths that I have watched with any regularity are NC, NY, and NJ. I watch NY and NJ because their governor's briefings summarize data pretty well and they are two of the highest impacted areas.910wolf said:
Davie/Wayland, what are your takeaways from the latest IHME model?
I also feel that Massachusetts has been over counting their cases slightly, their average age of death is like a year or two higher than everywhere else. I think they threw a lot of 'probable' (or they were old and in a facility that might have had an outbreak) deaths in their totals.
I don't have a good feel on a number of states like TX, FL, and GA (among others) because I haven't spent any time looking at their dailies (like I have with many of the Northeast hot spots).
So, I will add, that if we are using the same methods of counting as we have been for the last month and follow the trends, then I think IHME trends a little higher than I expect.
If all of a sudden how we count deaths change or we start to pile massive backlogs on the total, my impression would change.
Based on CURRENT reporting numbers and metrics, I would expect us to be under. But could also see a LONG SLOW burn if we can't stop these congregate outbreaks.
We'll see how I feel after how high this past weekend's reporting lag (usually coming today and tomorrow) rebounds.
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Here's the latest graph, showing how every version of the IHME model versus the actual deaths. This is a track of the Mean Total Deaths from each model. As you can see, the model is currently tracking below the latest revised track for deaths and this has been a consistent theme. The model appears to over-emphasis deaths and it also has done the same with hospital beds and ICU bed requirements in the past models.910wolf said:
Davie/Wayland, what are your takeaways from the latest IHME model?
Overall, it is hard to understand how they are modeling. Clearly the first version was a pure exponential plot of deaths, assuming some very inaccurate assumptions regarding CFR and IFR. The model has missed in a couple of key areas:
1) It missed the move of the virus into nursing homes and other congregate facilities. You can see a bump upward in deaths starting around 4/20 and this would coincide with the reports coming from the nursing home so cases.
2) I am not sure the model tries to take into account potential therapeutic treatments that could come online in a couple of months. As I mentioned in a recent post, there are some very promising drugs that are currently in clinical trial and if successful, they could help to lower the percentage of deaths (lowering the CFR and IFR).
3) The modeling assumptions do not make it clear how they model case distribution. As we know, outcomes differ widely across different age ranges. This is why you will not see a direct link of cases and deaths. Cases could double, but if those cases were heavily weighted to younger age ranges, overall deaths would definitely not double and would be much lower than anticipated. I allude to this in point 1 above, where we have seen ~60% of deaths in NC from congregate facilities and 87% of deaths are from people 65+. This is in spite of the fact that the majority of cases are below the age of 65.
I just ran a quick little average check on actual data vs the fact that IHME is estimating 20+ deaths for NC through at least the 14th.
For comparison, on a 5 day rolling average, the average deaths per day only equaled or exceeded 20 on 4/21/20 when it hit 20.2. I know the data for the last two days is lagging, but based on trends it would be unusual for NC to exceed that total for over a week (at this point in the curve).
Again, maybe I am missing something, since I only see the raw numbers, not what is happening on the ground. Hopefully I can be singing the same tune in a week.
EDIT: Here is a quick and dirty graph of deaths by day reported (using NandO's daily numbers instead of DHHS because they were easier to grab)
For comparison, on a 5 day rolling average, the average deaths per day only equaled or exceeded 20 on 4/21/20 when it hit 20.2. I know the data for the last two days is lagging, but based on trends it would be unusual for NC to exceed that total for over a week (at this point in the curve).
Again, maybe I am missing something, since I only see the raw numbers, not what is happening on the ground. Hopefully I can be singing the same tune in a week.
EDIT: Here is a quick and dirty graph of deaths by day reported (using NandO's daily numbers instead of DHHS because they were easier to grab)
Could be additional COVID deaths.
But there is also a lot of anecdotal evidence that a lot less people are going to the hospital for the things they otherwise would be (heart disease, etc). It also makes sense that people would be less inclined to seek medical treatment for non-COVID related illnesses in areas where COVID is hitting the hardest. So are people dying of other things where they typically wouldn't if they received proper medical intervention.
I certainly think it is a combination of factors. Both COVID and non-COVID deaths (caused by a change in typical behavior for seeking medical intervention).
But again, I am working solely off of trend data. What happens behind closed doors is beyond me and is something that will have to get sorted out when this is all over, IMO.
Edit: Looking at that article, they cherry pick literally every hardest hit area (and then randomly add Denmark and Austria to make it balanced).
And Bergamo may literally be the hardest hit place in the world. Yes, their death toll for all causes is going to be high, they got crushed (as did NYC). I mean it is a pandemic, deaths are going to be higher than normal.
Careers will be made studying the impact of this! I think that some of the really hard part of this, is that there is no universal burden. It will be interesting to see what NC's impact was.
But there is also a lot of anecdotal evidence that a lot less people are going to the hospital for the things they otherwise would be (heart disease, etc). It also makes sense that people would be less inclined to seek medical treatment for non-COVID related illnesses in areas where COVID is hitting the hardest. So are people dying of other things where they typically wouldn't if they received proper medical intervention.
I certainly think it is a combination of factors. Both COVID and non-COVID deaths (caused by a change in typical behavior for seeking medical intervention).
But again, I am working solely off of trend data. What happens behind closed doors is beyond me and is something that will have to get sorted out when this is all over, IMO.
Edit: Looking at that article, they cherry pick literally every hardest hit area (and then randomly add Denmark and Austria to make it balanced).
And Bergamo may literally be the hardest hit place in the world. Yes, their death toll for all causes is going to be high, they got crushed (as did NYC). I mean it is a pandemic, deaths are going to be higher than normal.
Careers will be made studying the impact of this! I think that some of the really hard part of this, is that there is no universal burden. It will be interesting to see what NC's impact was.
Phase 1 starts Friday May 8th at 5pm with a modified Stay at Home order.
Retail at 50% capacity.
Parks and trails re-open.
Restaurants still take out and delivery.
Gyms, salons, bars, theaters are still closed.
Gatherings limited to 10, but gathering outdoors is allowed.
Worship services allowed with more than 10 people IF socially distanced and outdoors.
Wow , the media was really worked up about the metrics and opening. Couldn't believe we were opening without a big decline and was challenging the governor on caving to pressure.
Retail at 50% capacity.
Parks and trails re-open.
Restaurants still take out and delivery.
Gyms, salons, bars, theaters are still closed.
Gatherings limited to 10, but gathering outdoors is allowed.
Worship services allowed with more than 10 people IF socially distanced and outdoors.
Wow , the media was really worked up about the metrics and opening. Couldn't believe we were opening without a big decline and was challenging the governor on caving to pressure.
If you haven't seen this video it's worth the time. Feels like there's a little black helicopter in it but also some very interesting points. I don't think it's been posted here yet but forgive me if so.
The President of Tanzania had coronavirus tests submitted they gave fake names and ages to but samples were actually from a goat and a fruit. Both tests came back positive. I don't even know if that says something about Tanzania, the tests or the generated hysteria of this virus overall...but obviously something isn't right.
There have been plenty of documented issues with the testing. IMO it's to be expected when you are rush manufacturing millions of something. I mentioned that earlier in the thread when it was brought up that the antibody tests are unreliable, all of the tests are unreliable at this point. It's really hard to put a lot of weight on any of the numbers, but you have to work with the information you're given.
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5/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)Wayland said:
4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)
NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440
196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)
124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths
380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.
149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.
Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.
NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036
212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)
87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths
561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.
NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832
229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)
134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths
414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.
NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475
245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths
586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.
102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.
NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835
246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)
140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths
155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.
42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.
DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.
NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439
252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)
141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)
99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.
184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.
DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.
NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800
263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)
150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)
104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths
408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.
NC Cases*
12,758
NC Deaths**
477
Currently Hospitalized
516
Completed Tests
164,482
282 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 since yesterday)
41 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+25 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+21 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)
154 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
323 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)
107 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
WRAL is at 493 (+2) and NandO is at 485 deaths
502 positive cases over 12682 new tests. 4.0% positive rate.
Every day I post these, I seethe a little when I see the Congregate number, knowing that that total is driving bad policy.
Do we eventually reach congregate deaths being 90% or higher of the total? Seems like that is where it is headed.
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wilmwolf80 said:
Do we eventually reach congregate deaths being 90% or higher of the total? Seems like that is where it is headed.
I consider the unknown as Congregate until they are proven otherwise, I think Davie leans the other way when he charts his numbers. But even DHHS lists this under their 'Congregate' numbers:
"1 6,131 laboratory-confirmed cases and 154 deaths are among persons who do not live or work in congregate living settings. Data are missing for 3,192 laboratory-confirmed cases and 41 deaths. "
NC, I think it will settle closer to 75%. But it frustrates the hell out of me, that every day I see the increase in the number of Congregate settings affected and wonder just what the hell we are doing anymore.
In the past week, the number of Congregate settings with an outbreak has increased by 19. Despite the stay at home, despite the FOCUSED awareness that this is a HUGE ISSUE. 19 additional facilities have had an outbreak. If we can't stop a confined population where we are actively looking to stop this, what is the point? (<- frustration talking as much as anything)
Absolutely agree with your point. Said it earlier in the thread myself. If you can't stop it from affecting these isolated populations, which contain those with absolutely the most risk, there really isn't any point.
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I agree in general. But it probably points to the fact many more folks are affected than are published, maybe asymptomatically, and because they are, they gain access to these centers? Whether a care taker, an employee, or family member?Wayland said:wilmwolf80 said:
Do we eventually reach congregate deaths being 90% or higher of the total? Seems like that is where it is headed.
I consider the unknown as Congregate until they are proven otherwise, I think Davie leans the other way when he charts his numbers. But even DHHS lists this under their 'Congregate' numbers:
"1 6,131 laboratory-confirmed cases and 154 deaths are among persons who do not live or work in congregate living settings. Data are missing for 3,192 laboratory-confirmed cases and 41 deaths. "
NC, I think it will settle closer to 75%. But it frustrates the hell out of me, that every day I see the increase in the number of Congregate settings affected and wonder just what the hell we are doing anymore.
In the past week, the number of Congregate settings with an outbreak has increased by 19. Despite the stay at home, despite the FOCUSED awareness that this is a HUGE ISSUE. 19 additional facilities have had an outbreak. If we can't stop a confined population where we are actively looking to stop this, what is the point? (<- frustration talking as much as anything)
And then once that does get transmitted...its so much more dangerous in the congregate environment?
BTW...I fully agree on your frustration and am not justifying any causes of the disease spread in these facilities...just playing devils advocate looking for how this could still be happening given what you listed.
That is a good argument as to why they should be concentrating the available resources for testing and quarantining anyone that goes in one of those facilities. That sucks for those that work there, but if the goal was to stop vulnerable people from dying, and are designing policy for the whole state around that idea, then that is what they should've done. As to the broader point, I agree, I think that is so widespread and spreads so easily that there probably isn't anything that could be done to stop it. Which again makes me feel that most everything we've done has been a waste of time.
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I've been advocating that the best way to protect congregate facilities is to have the workers live on site 24/7 for at least a month or so.
I'd open up tons of emergency funding to pay massive overtime rates to the staff for these facilities. Have all food and supplies dropped off via delivery and no contact between driver/worker. Sanitize all materials being brought into the facility.
Workers and residents all wearing masks 24/7.
I'd open up tons of emergency funding to pay massive overtime rates to the staff for these facilities. Have all food and supplies dropped off via delivery and no contact between driver/worker. Sanitize all materials being brought into the facility.
Workers and residents all wearing masks 24/7.
Agreed --- it would seemingly require a complete lockdown, then eventually rigid testing.wilmwolf80 said:
That is a good argument as to why they should be concentrating the available resources for testing and quarantining anyone that goes in one of those facilities. That sucks for those that work there, but if the goal was to stop vulnerable people from dying, and are designing policy for the whole state around that idea, then that is what they should've done. As to the broader point, I agree, I think that is so widespread and spreads so easily that there probably isn't anything that could be done to stop it. Which again makes me feel that most everything we've done has been a waste of time.
Also probably shows that these centers are not necessarily managed consistently (probably not a shock) and seemingly, still not even being done consistently.
So kind of like the several stories we've heard about where companies critical to supply chain for mnfg of masks, etc have identified workers to live onsite for a period of time and have a dedicated workforce to get thru key milestones.King Leary said:
I've been advocating that the best way to protect congregate facilities is to have the workers live on site 24/7 for at least a month or so.
I'd open up tons of emergency funding to pay massive overtime rates to the staff for these facilities. Have all food and supplies dropped off via delivery and no contact between driver/worker. Sanitize all materials being brought into the facility.
Workers and residents all wearing masks 24/7.
And of course, then you look at these congregate care places --- I'd suspect many of the employees in them (nurses, food services, etc) are single parents and so it becomes incredibly complex to say "sorry, you can't leave for the next 4 weeks".
I agree. That should've been done from the very beginning. Like I said, that sucks for the people that work there, because most of those jobs aren't exactly high paying, but if you did like you said and paid them all overtime it may make it a little easier for them to take. Moot point now of course, probably pointless to implement such a thing this far down the road.King Leary said:
I've been advocating that the best way to protect congregate facilities is to have the workers live on site 24/7 for at least a month or so.
I'd open up tons of emergency funding to pay massive overtime rates to the staff for these facilities. Have all food and supplies dropped off via delivery and no contact between driver/worker. Sanitize all materials being brought into the facility.
Workers and residents all wearing masks 24/7.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Right it becomes incredibly complex when kids are involved. And it's a big sacrifice for those workers to make.
There would need to be a major financial incentive for those workers. If the state opens up and starts generating some tax revenue, they can use some of those funds to pay the congregate facility workers.
And when I say congregate facilities I mainly only mean nursing homes. I don't think we need to necessarily do this for prisons.
There would need to be a major financial incentive for those workers. If the state opens up and starts generating some tax revenue, they can use some of those funds to pay the congregate facility workers.
And when I say congregate facilities I mainly only mean nursing homes. I don't think we need to necessarily do this for prisons.
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
It is admittedly easy to say in hindsight, but all of the numbers would be better, for both the virus and the economic impact.
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The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
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The Gatekeeper.
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StateFan2001's favorite poster.
And you are proposing tax revenue that is hugely impacted already (and I assume not recoverable).King Leary said:
Right it becomes incredibly complex when kids are involved. And it's a big sacrifice for those workers to make.
There would need to be a major financial incentive for those workers. If the state opens up and starts generating some tax revenue, they can use some of those funds to pay the congregate facility workers.
And when I say congregate facilities I mainly only mean nursing homes. I don't think we need to necessarily do this for prisons.
I just made a reservation for fam to go to HHI at end of May. One unit...out of thousands of units / houses that typically get rented on that island at the end of May....and the tax bill for 3 nights is $330. So, $100/night.
Multiply that out for all of HHI, add in the rest of the Lowcountry and then Myrtle Beach.....and imagine the lost revenue if those places remain closed and that reduces revenue for SC, and the towns and counties that share that tax.
Or heaven forbid, the impact on places like Orlando that is so dependent....with Disney now closed. So when does state (and local municipality) budgets get destroyed. What do they cut?
Its such a sad spiraling storyline.
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This is being discussed in a couple of Twitter threads today (one is Nate Silver's twitter account) and it is a problem that deserves meaningful discussion and a solution, both short-term and long-term.King Leary said:
Right it becomes incredibly complex when kids are involved. And it's a big sacrifice for those workers to make.
There would need to be a major financial incentive for those workers. If the state opens up and starts generating some tax revenue, they can use some of those funds to pay the congregate facility workers.
And when I say congregate facilities I mainly only mean nursing homes. I don't think we need to necessarily do this for prisons.
In the short-term, several people (including Nate) have suggested using hotels and having the government fund the hotel space. Hotels currently need patrons and this would help them and also provide a place for the nursing home workers. As you and others have pointed out, it is tricky where kids are involved, particularly for those people who are single parents. This could help to provide some solution though to keep the people working in the nursing homes separated from the general public.
Additionally, the testing capacity needs to be shifted to nursing home and congregate care facilities, they need to be testing staff and patients weekly or several times a week. Staff needs to undergo temperature checks upon arrival to the facility, every four hours during their shift, and when leave the facility. No one should be allowed to enter without going through at least a temperature check.
Second on the list for testing are hospital workers who come in contact with patients. Third on the list are people working in the food processing industry. Any remaining capacity would be made available for surveillance testing and testing of people with suspected symptoms.
I am certain others will have good ideas and this really needs to be a discussion at the highest level. Not only do we need a short-term plan, we need a long-term plan for these facilities. While we may get a vaccine in a year, it will not be 100% effective (no vaccine is) and it is also very likely a vaccine will not be available for 2 or more years. As such, we need to have a long-term plan for how these facilities will be protected. We can not keep housing workers from these facilities for multiple years, so there eventually has to be a better plan.
How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.Wayland said:
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
But they stayed active....
Packchem91 said:How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.Wayland said:
Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.
But they stayed active....
My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag. My dream if some NC or anywhere else could produce data like this.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
Sweden's Government Site:
Their ICU numbers are declining
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
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