So somehow the first time I saw this one. And not that I believe it, but interesting in the correlation vs causation world.

Does MMR Vaccine Confer some level of protection from COVID-19? Take it all with a high degree of skepticism.

https://world.org/COVID-19

Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.

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How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.
But they stayed active....

---

My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/



Sweden's Government Site:

Their ICU numbers are declining

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

---

Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...

Wayland said:

---

So somehow the first time I saw this one. And not that I believe it, but interesting in the correlation vs causation world.

Does MMR Vaccine Confer some level of protection from COVID-19? Take it all with a high degree of skepticism.

https://world.org/COVID-19

---

I was going to post about this earlier, but did not have time. I am somewhat skeptical, but it would go a long way to explain why younger people are not getting the virus and if they are, their symptoms are mild to non-existent. There has to be a reason for this to happen. If you think about it, most all children for the past 30 years or so have received the MMR vaccine as a standard vaccine you get as an infant. As you get older, the antibodies produced by the vaccine lessen and in some cases, older people never received a measles vaccine. As a result, people under the age of 30 or 40 would be more likely to have some protection and older people would be the ones who are the least protected.

I read through a couple of studies about this last night and it explained the linkage between the spike protein for the coronavirus and the spike protein for the measles virus. The proteins are not identical, but they are 26% similar. The theory is there is enough similarity for the antibodies generated for the measles (it is an antibody that inhibits the ability of the virus to attach to a cell) that it could also be inhibiting the coronavirus's ability to attach to the cell wall. The spike protein on the outside of the coronavirus is what allows the virus to attach to the ACE2 receptor on a cell. Without this attachment, the virus (same with measles) can not gain entry to the cell and begin reproduction.

Not all organs have an ACE2 receptor, but the ones that do are in the nose, mouth, lungs, stomach, small intestines, colon, and a few other places I can not remember. This is why the virus can attack these areas of the body. Blood cells (red and white) do not contain ACE2 receptors and this is why most people do not believe the virus can infect the blood. The issues with blood are coming from the body's immune system reaction to the virus and not an infection of the blood itself.

One of the key reasons the coronavirus is thought to be more infectious is that it's spike protein is much stronger (physically) than other coronavirus' spike proteins. This is why the coronavirus requires a lower viral load to infect someone, compared to other virus. So, anything you can do to disrupt the ability of the virus to attach to the ACE2 receptor, the more likely you are to decrease the virus' infection abilities. A week ago there was a lot of attention being paid to a trial being developed by the University of Louisville researchers. Their approach is similar, but it does not involve a vaccine. Their theory is to inject a drug that causes the production of a short segment enzymes that would bind to the spike protein and render it ineffective in attaching to the ACE2 receptor. In theory, it makes sense and it should be going into trials soon.

Also, there is another trial underway (currently underway with mice) that genetically modifies the measles vaccine to more directly attack the spike protein on the Coronavirus. So far, it has been successful in preventing the virus in mice and they are now planning to move to expanded trials. The key advantage of this approach is manufacturing of the measles vaccine is much simpler, so it could be more easily produced in volume.

Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.

---

How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.
But they stayed active....

---

My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/



Sweden's Government Site:

Their ICU numbers are declining

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

---

Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...

---

Very limited effect on their economy, since they have not shutdown major industries or restaurants. The biggest disruptions as I understand it, are more from outside and the impact it is having on countries that Swedish firms do business with.

I will point out that Sweden has also done poorly with the protection of nursing homes and this has been one of the biggest contributors to deaths in the country. Approximately 50% of the deaths in Sweden have been from nursing homes and they have been locked down as well. The head of their strategy admits to being surprised at the death toll, but still believes their strategy has been successful in many ways. He said they believed they could better protect people in the nursing homes and is surprised they have not been able to be more effective in this area.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Wayland said:

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Just imagine instead of shutting it all down, we spent even a fraction of that money supporting long term care facilities though compensation, additional resources, etc.

---

How did Sweden do / are doing? I know the scale is altogether different than US. And they have a much different cultural and diversity make-up, to the degree that makes a difference.
But they stayed active....

---

My favorite Swedish site for deaths, since it shows data lag.

https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/



Sweden's Government Site:

Their ICU numbers are declining

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

---

Thanks -- though I was also wondering more about the impact on the economy, and such...

---

Very limited effect on their economy, since they have not shutdown major industries or restaurants. The biggest disruptions as I understand it, are more from outside and the impact it is having on countries that Swedish firms do business with.

I will point out that Sweden has also done poorly with the protection of nursing homes and this has been one of the biggest contributors to deaths in the country. Approximately 50% of the deaths in Sweden have been from nursing homes and they have been locked down as well. The head of their strategy admits to being surprised at the death toll, but still believes their strategy has been successful in many ways. He said they believed they could better protect people in the nursing homes and is surprised they have not been able to be more effective in this area.

---

Thanks Davie -- that is interesting feedback. Makes sense about the economic impact being minimal - versus the complete havoc on the US (and likely many other countries) economic systems. Versus deaths.
The one article I saw on CNN that referenced 2200 deaths in Sweden did not differentiate between gen pop and congregate (not surprisingly) considering the headline of the article was that the reporters' time there gave him the impression of "recklessness".

2/3 of new Covid19 cases in NYC are from people that have been staying at home.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

Time to dig a little deeper into the activities of these unemployed, stay at home, 50+, residents of NYC. Is there something environmental? Dense living? Social activities?

packgrad said:

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2/3 of new Covid19 cases in NYC are from people that have been staying at home.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

---

Are we finally starting to see these people open their eyes to the reality of where this virus spreads and who it affects?

I would bet everything I own multigenerational families living in tiny apartments is a factor in 90%+ of these numbers.

Younger people get it as much as older. Most people are asymptomatic or have very minor symptoms. Older people die at a slightly higher rate because of underlying conditions and medications. The # of positive cases are 30-50 times higher than reported.

Everpack said:

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I would bet everything I own multigenerational families living in tiny apartments is a factor in 90%+ of these numbers.

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There may be something to this idea. It would definitely be interesting to see the contract tracing analysis for these cases to better understand the vectors of infection.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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4/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
9948
NC Deaths**
354
Currently Hospitalized
551 <- New High
Completed Tests
118,440

196 Deaths are now Congregate (+8 since yesterday)
34 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+12 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+9 Not GenPop, +3 GenPop)

124 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
230 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

86 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 366 (+2) and NandO is at 366 deaths

380 positive cases over 5688 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.

Good low positive daily rate. Likely less congregate outbreaks represented.
Spike in hospitalizations. Would like to see a breakdown of ICU/non-ICU here.
DHHS still lagging media on deaths. WRAL and NandO had those totals late last night, again lag is likely due to trying to confirm congregate or not.

149 of the new cases came from congregate facilities.

Wake County is allowing their separate Stay at Home order to expire, and will continue under the state's order.

---

4/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10509
NC Deaths**
378
Currently Hospitalized
546
Completed Tests
128,036

212 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+24 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+19 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

129 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
249 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+19)

87 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 386 (+2) and NandO is at 385 deaths

561 positive cases over 9596 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

---

5/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
10,923
NC Deaths**
399
Currently Hospitalized
547
Completed Tests
133,832

229 Deaths are now Congregate (+17 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+16 Not GenPop, +5 GenPop)

134 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
265 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

92 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 411 (+2) and NandO is at 414 deaths

414 positive cases over 5796 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.


160 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Guilford County is up to 30 deaths and as of Tuesday's report they did not have a single congregate setting death, which is super unusual. Most of the high death count counties have significant congregate death tolls. So what is going on in Guilford County or are they submitting incomplete data? It sticks out as such an outlier, I would love to know what is actually happening there.

---

5/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,509
NC Deaths**
420
Currently Hospitalized
502
Completed Tests
139,475

245 Deaths are now Congregate (+16 since yesterday)
35 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (-1)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+15 Not GenPop, +6 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
280 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

95 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 420 (+2) and NandO is at 419 deaths

586 positive cases over 5642 new tests. 10.4% positive rate.


102 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

Highest single day of positive cases, although the positive rate is only about 1.5% average. I wish I knew what congregate or workplaces testing was in there.

---

5/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,664
NC Deaths**
422
Currently Hospitalized
475
Completed Tests
143,835

246 Deaths are now Congregate (+1 since yesterday)
36 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+2 Not GenPop, +0 GenPop)

140 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
282 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

97 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 435 (+2) and NandO is at 432 deaths

155 positive cases over 4360 new tests. 3.6% positive rate.


42 of the new positive cases are in congregate facilities.

DHHS has caught up to media as of yesterday morning. They are now lagging 8-13 behind again.

---

5/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
11,848
NC Deaths**
430
Currently Hospitalized
498
Completed Tests
146,439

252 Deaths are now Congregate (+6 since yesterday)
37 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+7 Not GenPop, +1 GenPop)

141 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
289 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+7)

99 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)

WRAL is at 450 (+2) and NandO is at 442 deaths <- should hop up shortly from weekend lag.

184 positive cases over 2604 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

DHHS lagging again. Behind 10 or so deaths, but they usually catch up later in the week with verification.

---

5/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
12,256
NC Deaths**
452
Currently Hospitalized
534
Completed Tests
151,800

263 Deaths are now Congregate (+11 since yesterday)
39 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+13 Not GenPop, +9 GenPop)

150 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
302 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

104 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)

WRAL is at 464 (+2) and NandO is at 460 deaths

408 positive cases over 5361 new tests. 7.6% positive rate.

---

5/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
12,758
NC Deaths**
477
Currently Hospitalized
516
Completed Tests
164,482

282 Deaths are now Congregate (+19 since yesterday)
41 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+25 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+21 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

154 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
323 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+21)

107 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)

WRAL is at 493 (+2) and NandO is at 485 deaths

502 positive cases over 12682 new tests. 4.0% positive rate.

Every day I post these, I seethe a little when I see the Congregate number, knowing that that total is driving bad policy.

---

5/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 11:00am)

NC Cases*
13,397
NC Deaths**
507
Currently Hospitalized
525
Completed Tests
171,328

303 Deaths are now Congregate (+21 since yesterday)
46 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday. (+26 Not GenPop, +4 GenPop)

158 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
349 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+26)

108 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)

WRAL is at 522 (+2) and NandO is at 513 deaths

631 positive cases over 6846 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

Looks like a super catch-up day out of DHHS. New high for new tests in one day. Positive rate a little over average. Deaths I almost don't look at anymore since it is mostly congregate/unknown and so little is in the general population.

I am guessing the spike in cases came from the meat processing outbreak earlier this week, since the data of specimen collection chart shows a HUGE spike a couple days ago.

10 of those new deaths came out of Orange County. I was wondering when they were going to post since the Congregate Report has showed more deaths than the County report for some time now. A LOT of data lag here.... still want DHHS to put out an actual date of death report.

19,528 completed tests (1,133 positive cases) reported over the last 2 days. That's over 11.4% of total completed tests since testing began, but only 8.46% of total positive cases. That's a good sign.

Agree that it's likely due to playing catch-up on the reporting side, but hopefully it points to an increase in overall testing capacity as well for NC.

Side question for those most on top of the phased approach to opening things back up. Have they identified what phase and date range we can expect the restrictions on leisure travel to expire? Desperately needing a mountain or beach weekend ASAP.

The overall positive rate was 5.9% for the last two days, which is well under the running average of ~8%. Which is good, in spite of the outbreaks.

On a side note for stats. Since the NC DHHS has started to report congregate/unknown cases on 4/18:

Average deaths per day:

12.8 Congregate
1.5 Unknown
3.7 General Population.

(Side note since I give NC a hard time about their congregate issues. New Jersey reported that their number of deaths at Long Term Care facilities exceeds 4500 as of today in over 500 facilities.... wow)

Wayland said:

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The overall positive rate was 5.9% for the last two days, which is well under the running average of ~8%. Which is good, in spite of the outbreaks.

On a side note for stats. Since the NC DHHS has started to report congregate/unknown cases on 4/18:

Average deaths per day:

12.8 Congregate
1.5 Unknown
3.7 General Population.

(Side note since I give NC a hard time about their congregate issues. New Jersey reported that their number of deaths at Long Term Care facilities exceeds 4500 as of today in over 500 facilities.... wow)

---

With regards to Congregate deaths, I watched a Zoom call last night that included the chief architect of Sweden's response (Johan Giesecke - one of the world's leading epidemiologists). On the call, he expressed his regret that they had not been able to better protect nursing homes. He said many of the experts had assumed we (the collective we) could have done a better job of protecting them and it has proven much more difficult than anticipated. He pointed out that is only takes one mistake in a nursing home environment that can lead to a breakout.

As to case tracking, I am trying out a new graph that combines daily new cases with percent positive cases on the same graph. I have attached it below and am interested in comments. I do not believe just showing daily new cases is adequate, due to the increasing number of tests being run.

I like the graph. Going to have to go back and see what the April 7th outbreak was.

I was trying to put together a graph over time showing congregate vs unknown vs general population, and I just couldn't get the right look.

Was 4/7 just a reporting catch-up day or something?

statefan91 said:

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Was 4/7 just a reporting catch-up day or something?

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Trying to find that.

The spike around 4/20-4/21 has to be the Neuse Correctional outbreak.

They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

1985 NCSU Grad said:

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They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

---

The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.

1985 NCSU Grad said:

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Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

---

The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.

---

Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.

and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day

Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

---

The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.

---

Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.

and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day

---

We have data now showing that the spread of the virus across the country originated from New York. Study in NY Times today points out that the outbreak in New Orleans came out of New York. The outbreak in south Florida came out of New York.

Some key dates for NY:
1- Restrictions on large gatherings issue on March 12
2- Schools closed March 18,
3- Stay-at-home/Non-essential business closure on March 22.
4 - Federal guidelines were issued to slow the spread on March 16 (15 Days to Slow the Spread plan).
5 - On March 24, Florida's governor said anyone traveling from NY must self-quarantine.
6 - Lastly and most importantly, on March 28, NY Governor Cuomo ripped President Trump's suggestion that he might institute a travel ban on NY. Governor Cuomo said, "I don't believe that any federal administration could be serious about physical lockdowns on parts of states across this country," Cuomo said on CNN. "I don't believe it's legal. It would be economic chaos." President Trump later backed down and did not issue a travel ban on NY, NJ, or Conn.

Based on what we now know about transmission, parks and other outdoor activities should not be closed, assuming their is room for social distancing. In fact, outdoor activities should be encouraged. The vector for transmission (based on numerous contact tracing studies) is prolonged, close indoor contact. Outdoor contact and close, but not prolonged contact is not a strong vector for transmission. The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical.

"The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical. "

That describes much of NYC.

wilmwolf80 said:

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"The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical. "

That describes much of NYC.

---

Correct. Unfortunately, NYC needs mass transit to function, but it is the one thing that worries me more than anything else about opening up the city. NYC really needs to get test-and-trace up and running efficiently as quickly as possible or I am afraid it will go badly. I know they are shutting down the trains every night to deep clean them, but this will not address the people who walk through the stations and ride on the trains in close quarters. The same is true for Boston, DC, Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

As far as NC is concerned, I hope everybody follows the guidance. Continue to distance yourself from others when indoors in stores. Wash your hands and carry hand sanitizer to clean your hands while out. Wear a mask when you are in a store. When you are in your car or out at a park or on a beach, you should not need to wear a mask if you are able to stay away from others. People need to avoid groups of more than 10 if you are inside and if outside, you can have larger meetings as long as you spread out.

I watched an interview today with the top epidemiologist at Wake Forest's med school. He was very clear that being outside is better than being inside, when it comes to transmission of the virus. He pointed out air movement is key to reducing the chance of spread. He mentioned that the rooms Covid patients are in have air movement and the air is trapped and passed out into the open air and not recirculated inside the hospital.

Quite frankly, based on what we know and are learning about transmission, the parks should have never been closed by the government. The top epidemiologist from Sweden said on a YouTube video that there were no scientific studies that say locking down an economy is better than the approach they are taking. They have kept restaurants open with lower capacity, asked people to socially distance, wash hands and practice good health practices.They have kept schools open and their mortality rates are only marginally worse than the US's rate. There are recent studies showing that kids (<15 years old) are poor vectors for viral transmission. This is one of the reasons why we should be looking for ways to open schools in the Fall.

Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

---

The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.

---

Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.

and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day

---

It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.

1985 NCSU Grad said:

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Packchem91 said:

---

1985 NCSU Grad said:

---

Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

---

They are really unsure about a lot and have already been wrong about a lot of things.

They have been heavily studying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and is a Great "Case Study" for the disease. Now they are reporting a lot of stuff wrong in the media but it has been a rollercoaster ride for the Sailors on board and they have had good and bad accommodations for the sailors with good and bad food with nothing for them to do since entering port in Guam. Almost all are now on quarantined on base or cleared to go to the ship.

---

Who is "They" in your comments?

---

The they is the CDC, Navy/Marine infectious disease team and a few other infectious disease specialists from various universities.

---

Thanks -- I missed the original context that you were referring to.

and yes, seems like the one really consistent thing about this whole storyline on Corona has been the "uncertainty" -- from where it comes, how it spreads, how contagious, how bad, old vs young, what prevents, etc....a different version almost every day

---

It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.

---

Oh wow, holy mackerel My prayers with him, his shipmates, and your family. That must be horribly trying in your position with no real way to help.

wilmwolf80 said:

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"The worst environments for transmission is in homes, mass transit, and small stores and restaurants, where distancing is not practical. "

That describes much of NYC.

---

But it also describes Hong Kong, Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, a dozen cities each in China/India, all the big old cities in Europe, Mexico City.
But NYC is significantly worse than any of those isn't it? What was unique there?

I take back what I said (kind of) about the estimates being high. After reading articles about how Canada has 80+% of their deaths in long term care facilities and NJ is due for 5000 death in long term care facilities by this weekend. And just how bad these places are and how much money they are making off of storing elderly and infirm, I am defeated on the count. The death count is going to be high due to these places. I still don't get how NJ didn't spike and are more on a high burn from these places, but...

The death toll outside these facilities is going to be relatively low and if we truly charted these numbers separately and for everyone to see, it would have helped the national fear factor and additional care could have been put where it needed to be.

Reasonable measures, social distance, and awareness of one's own risk would have been sufficient over lock down.

Well, without looking them all up, NYC population density is higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. It is also perhaps the most culturally diverse pace in the world. I think it is hard to compare across different countries, because different countries and cultures are much more likely to be easily controlled than a diverse, free population in the US. I could also point to the fact that NYC wouldn't impose travel restrictions, and actually promoted large gatherings of people when it was already becoming clear that this was going to be a big deal.

wilmwolf80 said:

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Well, without looking them all up, NYC population density is higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. It is also perhaps the most culturally diverse pace in the world. I think it is hard to compare across different countries, because different countries and cultures are much more likely to be easily controlled than a diverse, free population in the US. I could also point to the fact that NYC wouldn't impose travel restrictions, and actually promoted large gatherings of people when it was already becoming clear that this was going to be a big deal.

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According to this article, NYC isn't even in the top 50 in the world in pop density.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/07/11/the-50-most-densely-populated-cities-in-the-world/39664259/

Now, I personally think your comment that I boldened is one of the major contributors in NYC and the US in general -- the "land of the free" truly is a cultural phenomenon. And extends to not only our daily activities but also to travel. Two related keys I wonder about:
1) do other major cities, at least outside Europe, have the press freedom / access to really have valid case and death numbers that is had in the US?

2) do ingress and egress travel occur in other cities to the degree they did in NYC?

I don't know about that article, there seems to be variance on the numbers compared to where you look. What I said was based on the numbers listed at Wikipedia, which there, the population density of NYC is 26,403 people per square mile. Mexico City was 16,000, Hong Kong 17,000, Tokyo 16,000. Doesn't really matter though, it is by far the most dense city in the US.

wilmwolf80 said:

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I don't know about that article, there seems to be variance on the numbers compared to where you look. What I said was based on the numbers listed at Wikipedia, which there, the population density of NYC is 26,403 people per square mile. Mexico City was 16,000, Hong Kong 17,000, Tokyo 16,000. Doesn't really matter though, it is by far the most dense city in the US.

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Sure....its semantics to a degree. And I saw where the surrounding cities like West NY, Hoboken, Union City, and Passaic are also extremely densely populated -- as in the highest in the country by far....just a lower total pop.

Most certainly a contributing factor, though again, from a world compare, just think there have to be other factors, and freedom of travel and freedom of normal every day lives seems to have to be a major one.
*As does the multi-generational housing in small apartments, though I know that is also prevalent in many other world cities, particularly poorer ones.

Packchem91 said:

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1985 NCSU Grad said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Quote:

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It is and they are confused. My son is on the ship...actually quarantined again positive after being quarantined negative.

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Oh wow, holy mackerel My prayers with him, his shipmates, and your family. That must be horribly trying in your position with no real way to help.

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It is trying but we get to "facetime" him - he is fine but you know how "moms" can be. Biggest thing is he is bored. He has shown no symptoms at all. He is ready to get back to flying. This was his 1st deployment - after graduating from NC State (ROTC), training for 3.5 years in Pensacola and then San Diego. It has been crazy for the Navy with this ordeal but it has been a great case to study in a very controlled environment.

Both my kids had it. The other one had a fever of 99 for about a 1/2 day but had no other symptoms. My doctor is "pretty sure" that me and my wife had it in early February as we had several of the COVID-19 symptoms but tested negative for the flu.

Packchem91 said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Well, without looking them all up, NYC population density is higher than Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. It is also perhaps the most culturally diverse pace in the world. I think it is hard to compare across different countries, because different countries and cultures are much more likely to be easily controlled than a diverse, free population in the US. I could also point to the fact that NYC wouldn't impose travel restrictions, and actually promoted large gatherings of people when it was already becoming clear that this was going to be a big deal.

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According to this article, NYC isn't even in the top 50 in the world in pop density.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/07/11/the-50-most-densely-populated-cities-in-the-world/39664259/

Now, I personally think your comment that I boldened is one of the major contributors in NYC and the US in general -- the "land of the free" truly is a cultural phenomenon. And extends to not only our daily activities but also to travel. Two related keys I wonder about:
1) do other major cities, at least outside Europe, have the press freedom / access to really have valid case and death numbers that is had in the US?

2) do ingress and egress travel occur in other cities to the degree they did in NYC?

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Well the Asian cultural standard of wearing masks early and often certainly helped. The general awareness of germs is much higher in the average person. When I went to Hong Kong and SE Asia it seemed over the top, but in these situations it helps.

Another major factor in outbreaks is average population age. Countries with more young people are seeing a much higher percentage of carriers as asymptomatic. Then you couple that with the fact that the poorer nations are often doing much worse at testing than we are. My colleagues in Hyderabad claim the Indian numbers being reported by the government have no bearing on reality. It's impossible to get a test and if you're just coughing and feverish, most will avoid a hospital or Dr. due to cost. I've seen the combo of young population and poor testing to cited as one of the biggest reasons we arent seeing huge outbreaks in Africa.