Wayland said:
Everyone seen the new panic porn put out by the NY Times.
3000 deaths/200,000 cases a day by the end of June?
CNN had it on their front page, edit. (looks like CNN took it down now in favor of the IHME drama.)
NY Times still has it up.
Of course per WaPo, the creator of the model had some things to say:
" The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress. The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.
He said he didn't know how the update was turned into a slidedeck by government officials and shared with news organizations. The data was first reported by the New York Times.
"I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown. This data was presented as an FYI to CDC it was not in any way intended to be a forecast," Lessler said."
Most likely, the chart was created by Karen's inside the government who are opposed to reopening the economy and they leaked it to try and influence the general public. It is definitely counter to what Dr. Birx said just a week ago about their expectations with regards to case growth by the end of May (projecting downward trend in cases). I expect Karen's in the local media to pull similar stunts and try to influence the public to reject reopening. WRAL is already hard a work at this effort.
Bottom line, as we start to reopen, cases will increase, but not all cases are created equal. You have to consider the demographics of the people infected and make assumptions based on the actual data as to the impact. For example, in NC we know that people between the age of 25 and 49 have a 99.65% chance of survival if they get the virus. Under the age of 25, current statistics in NC say you have a 100% chance of survival. So, even if cases double, it does not mean we will see deaths double. If NC could figure out a way to keep the virus out of nursing homes, you would only see deaths go from 5 a day to 10 a day, if cases double and keep the same demographics. We also know NC has had case levels over 500 per day and it has not come close to exceeding the healthcare capacity.
Additionally, the models being proposed are likely not considering new therapeutic treatments that are being developed. These treatments should be successful in reducing death rates, particularly in the people with preexisting conditions and compromised immune systems. Recently, Remdesivir has been approved and it may help some people (there are some limits on who can receive this drug). It is not a cure, but it is an important first step. There are other drugs that have even more potential to help that are currently in clinical trial (ACE blockers and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers). These drugs are meant to stop the effects of Interleukin-6 and block the inflammation, fluid build-up, and scarring caused by the cytokine storm prompted by Interleukin-6. There is a drug developed for AIDS (also shows good results against some forms of cancer) that may also have a big impact. This drug is called Leronlimab and it helps to stop one of the cytokine storms that impacts the patient's ability to fight the virus. Also, there is a drug currently in clinical trial that works to block the virus' ability to enter the human cells and begin replication. I am optimistic there will be combination of drugs available by July/August that help to reduce mortality.
