Coronavirus

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Pacfanweb
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ciscopack said:

WarrenPeace said:

It's so effin stupid. Absolutely ridiculous. It's like they are conditioning us for Socialism. Never thought I'd see the day where you can't go to church, can't go to work, can't go to school, can't go get a haircut, can't go out to eat, and can't have a kids birthday party. Over what? 77 people in the hospital. Ridiculous.
Ever been in a Pandemic before?
We all have. 2009 H1N1.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
packgrad
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King Leary said:

I hate the reporters asking "can everyone have one" when it comes to tests or ventilators.

Of course all 300 million Americans can't ****ing have one. It's just them trying to catch POTUS with a gotcha question.


Exactly. It's so stupid. The press are cheerleaders. Modern journalism.
ciscopack
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Pacfanweb said:

ciscopack said:

WarrenPeace said:

It's so effin stupid. Absolutely ridiculous. It's like they are conditioning us for Socialism. Never thought I'd see the day where you can't go to church, can't go to work, can't go to school, can't go get a haircut, can't go out to eat, and can't have a kids birthday party. Over what? 77 people in the hospital. Ridiculous.
Ever been in a Pandemic before?
We all have. 2009 H1N1.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html
And here I was thinking it was a HOAX or something that Johnson and Johnson started. I guess Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci are either insane or habitual liars?....at least someone is a habitual liar.
ncsualum05
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Pacfanweb said:

ncsualum05 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Trump can't answer the question about ventilator's. Was asked if everyone would have one. Can't answer the question. Also says noone has ever seen a pandemic the likes of this one before. Has he never heard of H1N1 10 years ago? I go back to what I've said here before. Please let Dr. Berx, Dr. Fauci, and VP Pence do the majority of the talking. The press conferences are much better that way.
H1N1 didn't threaten to overload the hospitals or shut down society. Wasn't near as lethal. I've never seen anything like this before. Obama admin barfed all over it because it should've never been as bad as it was. But only people who have seen anything like this would be over 100 years old now. And how difficult and expensive is to make and stock ventilators? How many do people keep on hand normally. Seems to me no one can answer the question or it's simply unfeasible to stockpile ventilators to the degree needed for this pandemic.
Yeah, it most certainly DID threaten hospitals.

"May 8, 2009 (CIDRAP News) With the global outbreak of novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) entering its fourth week, physicians at emergency rooms, clinics, and hospitals around the United States say they are overwhelmed with "worried well" who have as much as doubled their patient loads."

H1N1 had nearly 275,000 hospitalizations from 4/2009 to 4/2010, estimated (by CDC) 60 million cases, and nearly 12,500 deaths.

So far COVID has caused roughly 11,000 hospitalizations, 1530 deaths, and right at 100k cases.

Within 3 months of the first case of H1N1, we had 1 million cases of it. We're not tracking anywhere close to that with COVID so far.

It's not even CLOSE to being as bad as H1N1, but it's been hyped much more. Why?


Good points. I didn't remember much about it. Forgot how large it was. It's weird because we did nothing for that. I even had a guy worked next to me get it. We didn't stop work, church, social distance, etc. I do think Covid is more deadly.
Ground_Chuck
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Pacfanweb said:

ncsualum05 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Trump can't answer the question about ventilator's. Was asked if everyone would have one. Can't answer the question. Also says noone has ever seen a pandemic the likes of this one before. Has he never heard of H1N1 10 years ago? I go back to what I've said here before. Please let Dr. Berx, Dr. Fauci, and VP Pence do the majority of the talking. The press conferences are much better that way.
H1N1 didn't threaten to overload the hospitals or shut down society. Wasn't near as lethal. I've never seen anything like this before. Obama admin barfed all over it because it should've never been as bad as it was. But only people who have seen anything like this would be over 100 years old now. And how difficult and expensive is to make and stock ventilators? How many do people keep on hand normally. Seems to me no one can answer the question or it's simply unfeasible to stockpile ventilators to the degree needed for this pandemic.
Yeah, it most certainly DID threaten hospitals.

"May 8, 2009 (CIDRAP News) With the global outbreak of novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) entering its fourth week, physicians at emergency rooms, clinics, and hospitals around the United States say they are overwhelmed with "worried well" who have as much as doubled their patient loads."

H1N1 had nearly 275,000 hospitalizations from 4/2009 to 4/2010, estimated (by CDC) 60 million cases, and nearly 12,500 deaths.

So far COVID has caused roughly 11,000 hospitalizations, 1530 deaths, and right at 100k cases.

Within 3 months of the first case of H1N1, we had 1 million cases of it. We're not tracking anywhere close to that with COVID so far.

It's not even CLOSE to being as bad as H1N1, but it's been hyped much more. Why?


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html

According to this, the mortality rate of h1n1 was 0.02% with an R0 of 1.46. Estimates for the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2% with an R0 of somewhere between 2-2.5.

So covid19 has 100x the mortality rate and 50% more infectious.
packgrad
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More positive "anecdotal" news about treatment.

packgrad
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Steve Williams
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Staff
All broadcast TV needed to slow its ratings decline was a coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus is putting a temporary halt to the decades-long decline in broadcast television viewership.
TV ratings for the four major US broadcast networksABC, NBC, Fox, and CBShave increased each week since March 1. Evening news shows are bringing in their largest audiences in decades, the New York Times reported. An average of 32 million Americans watched the evening news last week, up 42% from the same period last year.

The pandemic has been especially good to reality TV, medical dramas, and shows about first responders. ABC's American Idol has grown its total audience three weeks in a row. The March 18 episode of Game of Games, hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, had its most viewers in more than a year, jumping 36% from the prior week. The March 11 finale of The Bachelor was the dating show's most-watched installment since 2016.

https://qz.com/1824422/coronavirus-has-stopped-the-decline-of-broadcast-tv-ratings/
PackBacker07
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Ground_Chuck said:

Pacfanweb said:

ncsualum05 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Trump can't answer the question about ventilator's. Was asked if everyone would have one. Can't answer the question. Also says noone has ever seen a pandemic the likes of this one before. Has he never heard of H1N1 10 years ago? I go back to what I've said here before. Please let Dr. Berx, Dr. Fauci, and VP Pence do the majority of the talking. The press conferences are much better that way.
H1N1 didn't threaten to overload the hospitals or shut down society. Wasn't near as lethal. I've never seen anything like this before. Obama admin barfed all over it because it should've never been as bad as it was. But only people who have seen anything like this would be over 100 years old now. And how difficult and expensive is to make and stock ventilators? How many do people keep on hand normally. Seems to me no one can answer the question or it's simply unfeasible to stockpile ventilators to the degree needed for this pandemic.
Yeah, it most certainly DID threaten hospitals.

"May 8, 2009 (CIDRAP News) With the global outbreak of novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) entering its fourth week, physicians at emergency rooms, clinics, and hospitals around the United States say they are overwhelmed with "worried well" who have as much as doubled their patient loads."

H1N1 had nearly 275,000 hospitalizations from 4/2009 to 4/2010, estimated (by CDC) 60 million cases, and nearly 12,500 deaths.

So far COVID has caused roughly 11,000 hospitalizations, 1530 deaths, and right at 100k cases.

Within 3 months of the first case of H1N1, we had 1 million cases of it. We're not tracking anywhere close to that with COVID so far.

It's not even CLOSE to being as bad as H1N1, but it's been hyped much more. Why?


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html

According to this, the mortality rate of h1n1 was 0.02% with an R0 of 1.46. Estimates for the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2% with an R0 of somewhere between 2-2.5.

So covid19 has 100x the mortality rate and 50% more infectious.


Yes, this virus is worse than H1N1, regular flu, etc. We can't say this enough.
PackBacker07
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packgrad said:




Ignoring the obvious political slant in these tweets, you do understand why governors are limiting access to the drug, correct?
packgrad
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More anecdotal doctor opinion.


Pacfanweb
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Ground_Chuck said:

Pacfanweb said:

ncsualum05 said:

RunsWithWolves26 said:

Trump can't answer the question about ventilator's. Was asked if everyone would have one. Can't answer the question. Also says noone has ever seen a pandemic the likes of this one before. Has he never heard of H1N1 10 years ago? I go back to what I've said here before. Please let Dr. Berx, Dr. Fauci, and VP Pence do the majority of the talking. The press conferences are much better that way.
H1N1 didn't threaten to overload the hospitals or shut down society. Wasn't near as lethal. I've never seen anything like this before. Obama admin barfed all over it because it should've never been as bad as it was. But only people who have seen anything like this would be over 100 years old now. And how difficult and expensive is to make and stock ventilators? How many do people keep on hand normally. Seems to me no one can answer the question or it's simply unfeasible to stockpile ventilators to the degree needed for this pandemic.
Yeah, it most certainly DID threaten hospitals.

"May 8, 2009 (CIDRAP News) With the global outbreak of novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) entering its fourth week, physicians at emergency rooms, clinics, and hospitals around the United States say they are overwhelmed with "worried well" who have as much as doubled their patient loads."

H1N1 had nearly 275,000 hospitalizations from 4/2009 to 4/2010, estimated (by CDC) 60 million cases, and nearly 12,500 deaths.

So far COVID has caused roughly 11,000 hospitalizations, 1530 deaths, and right at 100k cases.

Within 3 months of the first case of H1N1, we had 1 million cases of it. We're not tracking anywhere close to that with COVID so far.

It's not even CLOSE to being as bad as H1N1, but it's been hyped much more. Why?


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html

According to this, the mortality rate of h1n1 was 0.02% with an R0 of 1.46. Estimates for the mortality rate of Covid19 is 2% with an R0 of somewhere between 2-2.5.

So covid19 has 100x the mortality rate and 50% more infectious.
Maybe. Maybe not. It's very early. There has been 11 years of revising the numbers for H1N1. They've added millions and millions of presumed cases to those numbers over the years, which has driven down the mortality rate.
At this point, we know the flu was far more infectious. If in years to come, the CDC revises the numbers for Covid, maybe they'll say millions and millions had that, too....but currently, far less people are getting it in the same time frame as they did H1N1. And the mortality rate, even if it DOES stay higher, is still very low.

100x .02 still isn't much, and I suspect that number will go down over time. Although it does sound very dramatic to say "OMG, it's 100x more deadly"
Mormad
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I'm sorry but a 2 percent mortality rate is high. If I told my patients I had a 2 percent mortality in my surgeries I'd be run out of practice. Your point about not knowing the true incidence is well taken, but until we do know the true incidence we can't really afford to assume the best when the downside risk is a 2 percent mortality of a virus that could infect a very large number of people, right? Or should we just wait for 1000s upon 1000s to die before we decide to act and let the disease prove its death rate? There are indeed instances when stating 100x something is overly dramatic, but it's silly to say a .02 percent mortality rate is comparable IN ANY WAY to a 2 percent mortality rate.
Pacfanweb
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Mormad said:

I'm sorry but a 2 percent mortality rate is high. If I told my patients I had a 2 percent mortality in my surgeries I'd be run out of practice. Your point about not knowing the true incidence is well taken, but until we do know the true incidence we can't really afford to assume the best when the downside risk is a 2 percent mortality of a virus that could infect a very large number of people, right? Or should we just wait for 1000s upon 1000s to die before we decide to act and let the disease prove its death rate? There are indeed instances when stating 100x something is overly dramatic, but it's silly to say a .02 percent mortality rate is comparable IN ANY WAY to a 2 percent mortality rate.
We HAVE acted. The real numbers will come out eventually. I'm just commenting on the numbers.
Mormad
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You are correct, we have acted. Some argue too late. Time will tell. My hospital has 130 vents, in a crisis they're predicting needing 390. They are writing guidelines to ration care. No way they'll get that many vents. These are scary times. You hope it's like insurance that you'll never need.
acslater1344
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Steve Williams said:

All broadcast TV needed to slow its ratings decline was a coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus is putting a temporary halt to the decades-long decline in broadcast television viewership.
TV ratings for the four major US broadcast networksABC, NBC, Fox, and CBShave increased each week since March 1. Evening news shows are bringing in their largest audiences in decades, the New York Times reported. An average of 32 million Americans watched the evening news last week, up 42% from the same period last year.

The pandemic has been especially good to reality TV, medical dramas, and shows about first responders. ABC's American Idol has grown its total audience three weeks in a row. The March 18 episode of Game of Games, hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, had its most viewers in more than a year, jumping 36% from the prior week. The March 11 finale of The Bachelor was the dating show's most-watched installment since 2016.

https://qz.com/1824422/coronavirus-has-stopped-the-decline-of-broadcast-tv-ratings/




Ohhhh okay so this is a media conspiracy designed to boost ratings of The Bachelor. Got it. Makes total sense. Thanks for the insight, Steve! SMDH...
acslater1344
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Maybe Fauci is on ABC's payroll? LOL
wilmwolf
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It's most definitely not a media conspiracy, that's clearly absurd. They are, however, most definitely benefiting from it, and it's not hard to imagine that their coverage could be slanted because of that.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
Bas2020
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packgrad said:

More anecdotal doctor opinion.





Why are Michigan & Nevada outlawing this ? Shouldn't patients have a right to choose their meds - especially if proven to work .
Mormad
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There's no strong evidence it "work's." There is however some encouraging news. The "study" has big holes in it.

NC has also restricted use on an outpatient setting. Cannot be prescribed to those not infected. Until more is produced, have to preserve supply for the sick or those with conditions more commonly prescribed like RA, AS. No evidence that I know of that suggests it should be used prophylacticly...yet. should be an easy drug to produce for sure. Have to be careful about potential harms of the drug (QT prolongation, hypoglycemia, electrolyte disturbance, irreversible retinopathy, potentiation of certain meds).
Daviewolf83
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The mortality rate is only 2% if you do a horrible job as a country of protecting the at-risk population. If you do a better job of protecting at risk populations, the rate can be lowered to something closer to 0.5%. You can not use a "one size, fits all" mortality rate. The overall rate on a population is influenced by who gets the virus. For example, evidence indicates elderly people and people with specific conditions (diabetes as an example) have higher mortality than younger people with no preexisting at-risk conditions.

See this article to learn more:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving

I expect the CDC to issue guidelines in the next 10 days or sooner for all at-risk people and people who deal with these populations to wear masks. This will be part of the getting back to normal protocol that will likely start in late April or May.
Daviewolf83
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Bas2020 said:

packgrad said:

More anecdotal doctor opinion.





Why are Michigan & Nevada outlawing this ? Shouldn't patients have a right to choose their meds - especially if proven to work .
The governors are not doctors and should be leaving the decision up to the doctor and patient.
Mormad
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True, but the governors aren't making decisions unilaterally. They're taking advice from the best sources they have (CDC, NCDHHS, doctor panels, etc). There are reasons to restrict these drugs for the time being. That said, this is all fluid and rapidly changing.
Mormad
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Given the number of fat hypertensive diabetics with known/ unknown heart disease in this country, the at-risk population is massive
Ground_Chuck
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952 confirmed cases in N.C., 115k nationwide.

We added 35k cases in the last two days.
Bas2020
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Mormad said:

True, but the governors aren't making decisions unilaterally. They're taking advice from the best sources they have (CDC, NCDHHS, doctor panels, etc). There are reasons to restrict these drugs for the time being. That said, this is all fluid and rapidly changing.



If people are literally about to die - "what do you have to lose".


Guess everybody is scared of ambulance chasers instead of saving lives . Typical .
RunsWithWolves26
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Ground_Chuck said:

952 confirmed cases in N.C., 115k nationwide.

We added 35k cases in the last two days.


53,000 cases in NY alone
Mormad
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They're not being restricted, at least in NC, for "those about to die" when there's nothing to lose. That's exactly who they're being saved for, my friend. This, for once, has nothing to do with liability. In fact, there is to my knowledge no restriction on ordering for inpatients.
Bas2020
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Mormad said:

They're not being restricted, at least in NC, for "those about to die" when there's nothing to lose. That's exactly who they're being saved for, my friend. This, for once, has nothing to do with liability. In fact, there is to my knowledge no restriction on ordering for inpatients.

So if you live in Nevada and Michigan and your a dr you can prescribe this?
Mormad
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Yes, but only if you're in the ER or hospital. Again, no limits for those with Corona diagnosis and sick in the hospital. Cannot prescribe to those well enough to be at home or for prophylaxis.

Again, they're saving the current supply for the sick inpatients and for those with lupus, rheumatoid, ankylosing spondylitis, etc.

Docs that were allegedly threatened were those inappropriately prescribing to friends, family, peers, etc.

Nobody is trying to limit dosing to the sick and most have passed emergency allowance to prescribe off label on an inpatient/ER basis.

I suspect once it's deemed safe and efficacious by somewhat abbreviated American standards, and supply is larger, they'll open it up for more questionable cases (prophylaxis, minor illness, etc) and then you'll really have to decide based on potential harms of such treatment if it's worth it.
PackBacker07
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They are saving these drugs for folks who actually need them to survive. For folks who have diseases where these drugs have actually been approved. If governors, etc didn't invoke these orders then you'd have idiots hoarding this stuff, prescribing to family/friends, etc like mormad mentioned. To pull out "Democrat Governor Blah Blah is banning" is an asinine talking point drummed up by people with political motives.
Mormad
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Yessir. None of my responses are politically based. I'm pretty conservative, especially when it comes to govt intrusion, but based on what I'm seeing I back the gov on this one until things change for the better (more supply, a flattening curve, and a better understanding of our enemy). At some point, the politics gotta stop and we gotta have an organized, unified, grown up cohesiveness.
Mormad
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I really enjoy fighting like 12 yr olds over most political bullsht, but this ain't it friends.
Ground_Chuck
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RunsWithWolves26 said:

Ground_Chuck said:

952 confirmed cases in N.C., 115k nationwide.

We added 35k cases in the last two days.


53,000 cases in NY alone


NYC is tracking similarly to Madrid and Barcelona.
Daviewolf83
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Mormad said:

True, but the governors aren't making decisions unilaterally. They're taking advice from the best sources they have (CDC, NCDHHS, doctor panels, etc). There are reasons to restrict these drugs for the time being. That said, this is all fluid and rapidly changing.
The FDA has said the drugs can be used to treat coronavirus and are approved for off-label use. Dr. Birx clearly said this days ago. The government should not be inserting itself between a doctor and patient, particularly at the state level. As long as the governors are not restricting the use, it is okay.

Recent reports in the media indicate that several tests are in route that will allow physicians to tell in minutes (versus days) if a person is infected with the virus. One test from Abbott Labs was approved by the FDA last night and it can diagnose a person in less than 30 minutes from the time the test is administered. The lock-downs were put in place, since we did not have a reliable way to test if people have the virus and quarantine those affected people. We now have tests coming on line in the next few weeks that will solve this issue.

At some point, hopefully in the next month, the government needs to begin a shift from a lock-down stance to a Test and Trace approach. The NC government needs to be making plans for this now and they need to begin communicating their plans and next steps to the public. You can not tell people to stay in place for weeks and not communicate a plan. Ultimately, people who have had the virus and recovered and people who do not have the virus and are not in a high-risk group should be able to return to work and lead a normal live. This should be possible starting in May and the government needs to communicate next steps.

If other states begin implementing Test and Trace and freeing up restrictions, NC will have to do so quickly. People will not continue to stay in lock-down mode in NC when they see SC, Kentucky, and Tennessee opening back up. So far, I have been disappointed with the leadership in the NC government to communicate what is next.
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