Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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So about that hospitalization data. Let's take a look.


Look familiar, it was the same data I was providing (can't get pic to link)


ICUs. First notice they don't go far back, like I said in the past, they didn't start collecting this information until early May. Next, that jump in the Triad (20 ICU patients in one day), looks more like a reclassification (like identifying a Step-Down unit as ICU for tracking purposes)... or maybe that jump is purely organic.



Oddly enough ICUs were actually declining when the order was made to continue Phase 2 and a mask order was put into place. Maybe that is why they didn't want this out at the time.


Lots to dive into.

It looks like all hospitalizations were pretty stable until the extension of Phase 2 and the mask order when they immediately started to climb, especially in Meck (and a week later Triad). Order extension around the 24th, almost immediately Meck hospitals start admitted a whole bunch of non-ICU patients.

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Why'd you change the data filter for the last graph? Just curious as I'm not sure I'm following that last point. Thanks!

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It shows as soon as the governor made the order to extend Phase 2 and implement a mask order, Meck hospitals instantly almost doubled their admission rates of Covid patients. We can see from the surveillance that ICU admits didn't follow along with such a sharp increase but that the number of non-critical patients has grown significantly the last two weeks. That growth was initially limited to one hospital group and came immediately AFTER the announcement was made. Hospitalizations had been stable (and ICUs even declining) UNTIL the announcement and somehow trends (especially in Meck) turned on a dime when the governor spoke.

Announced continuation of Phase 2 -> Hospital admission policy change to allow admit more non-critical patients -> Overall hospitalizations increase lead to impression that things are getting worse when it is a business decision (77k per patient in CARES money + expenses) -> Restrictions stay in place. It is a loop.

Again, let's provide the necessary care to anyone, but when we aren't honest with what the numbers are and we use it to drive fear, that is not good. The business decision for hospitals can be a win-win because they provide additional care, but then we have media (looking at your WRAL) announcing "OMFG RECORD HOSPITALIZATIONS DOOM IS COMING". Not helpful.

Wake is right behind Meck in case growth but CapRAC (inlcudes WakeMed hospitals) and MCRHC (includes Rex/UNC) don't show that same growth.

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Gotcha. I still don't quite follow how you filtered the last graph though to illustrate that point. If you look at the confirm 24 hour admittance data statewide, it tells a different story. Phase 2 extension announced 6/24, with 97 new admits that same day. The next 5 days all had LESS admits than the day the order was announced, and it wasn't until 7/8 when 24-hour admits really spiked (131 confirm cased admits). Now if you drill into specific regions/hospital groups, the story may change a bit, but for this discussion i would think the state wise data is more relevant.

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Regional variation (and in turn variation due to policy of specific hospital groups) is more important than statewide. Of course it is important to see that Meck hospitals have a much higher incidence of non-critical admits than Wake hospitals. When you look statewide all the data blends, so that you can't pick out that one hospital group is pumping cases. When you separate them back out, you can see that clearly.

Hospitals in different regions are controlled by different entities, so also have different policies.

Regional or local data is much more important than statewide. Outbreaks are localized not evenly distributed over the state. Meck's curve is different from Guilford is different from Wake is different from New Hanover. Each locale experiences the outbreak differently.

I know I am arguing two slightly unrelated points here. One, Meck hospitals were pumping non-critical cases after Cooper's announcement of Phase 2. Two, local or regional data is vastly more important than statewide data when trying to identify outbreak trends.

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Okay, I'm following now. I think both points are valid. On point two, though, I think governors all over the country have been making policy decisions based on statewide trends, while knowing that those trends are driven primarily by hot spots (Charleston & Myrtle in SC for instance). I'm not sure asking local officials to make the incredibly important calls around reopening phases & mask mandates is a better option if that's what you're suggesting. A consistent approach at the state level is necessary IMO.

Also, I think you may be onto something with Meck's curve. That said, though, if DHHS asks Meck hospital groups if they've changed their COVID admittance policy and the answer comes back as no (i'm sure that's what they've said or would say) what then? Should the state openly accuse hospitals of changing their policy, which has led to an increase in hospitalizations that aren't indicative of more true virus spread? Should the state bake that unconfirmed assumption into policy decisions?

Now if I've missed where Meck hospitals have publicly said they've changed their admittance policy, please disregard the last paragraph. Love the discussion by the way.

acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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So about that hospitalization data. Let's take a look.


Look familiar, it was the same data I was providing (can't get pic to link)


ICUs. First notice they don't go far back, like I said in the past, they didn't start collecting this information until early May. Next, that jump in the Triad (20 ICU patients in one day), looks more like a reclassification (like identifying a Step-Down unit as ICU for tracking purposes)... or maybe that jump is purely organic.



Oddly enough ICUs were actually declining when the order was made to continue Phase 2 and a mask order was put into place. Maybe that is why they didn't want this out at the time.


Lots to dive into.

It looks like all hospitalizations were pretty stable until the extension of Phase 2 and the mask order when they immediately started to climb, especially in Meck (and a week later Triad). Order extension around the 24th, almost immediately Meck hospitals start admitted a whole bunch of non-ICU patients.

---

Why'd you change the data filter for the last graph? Just curious as I'm not sure I'm following that last point. Thanks!

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It shows as soon as the governor made the order to extend Phase 2 and implement a mask order, Meck hospitals instantly almost doubled their admission rates of Covid patients. We can see from the surveillance that ICU admits didn't follow along with such a sharp increase but that the number of non-critical patients has grown significantly the last two weeks. That growth was initially limited to one hospital group and came immediately AFTER the announcement was made. Hospitalizations had been stable (and ICUs even declining) UNTIL the announcement and somehow trends (especially in Meck) turned on a dime when the governor spoke.

Announced continuation of Phase 2 -> Hospital admission policy change to allow admit more non-critical patients -> Overall hospitalizations increase lead to impression that things are getting worse when it is a business decision (77k per patient in CARES money + expenses) -> Restrictions stay in place. It is a loop.

Again, let's provide the necessary care to anyone, but when we aren't honest with what the numbers are and we use it to drive fear, that is not good. The business decision for hospitals can be a win-win because they provide additional care, but then we have media (looking at your WRAL) announcing "OMFG RECORD HOSPITALIZATIONS DOOM IS COMING". Not helpful.

Wake is right behind Meck in case growth but CapRAC (inlcudes WakeMed hospitals) and MCRHC (includes Rex/UNC) don't show that same growth.

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Gotcha. I still don't quite follow how you filtered the last graph though to illustrate that point. If you look at the confirm 24 hour admittance data statewide, it tells a different story. Phase 2 extension announced 6/24, with 97 new admits that same day. The next 5 days all had LESS admits than the day the order was announced, and it wasn't until 7/8 when 24-hour admits really spiked (131 confirm cased admits). Now if you drill into specific regions/hospital groups, the story may change a bit, but for this discussion i would think the state wise data is more relevant.

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Regional variation (and in turn variation due to policy of specific hospital groups) is more important than statewide. Of course it is important to see that Meck hospitals have a much higher incidence of non-critical admits than Wake hospitals. When you look statewide all the data blends, so that you can't pick out that one hospital group is pumping cases. When you separate them back out, you can see that clearly.

Hospitals in different regions are controlled by different entities, so also have different policies.

Regional or local data is much more important than statewide. Outbreaks are localized not evenly distributed over the state. Meck's curve is different from Guilford is different from Wake is different from New Hanover. Each locale experiences the outbreak differently.

I know I am arguing two slightly unrelated points here. One, Meck hospitals were pumping non-critical cases after Cooper's announcement of Phase 2. Two, local or regional data is vastly more important than statewide data when trying to identify outbreak trends.

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Okay, I'm following now. I think both points are valid. On point two, though, I think governors all over the country have been making policy decisions based on statewide trends, while knowing that those trends are driven primarily by hot spots (Charleston & Myrtle in SC for instance). I'm not sure asking local officials to make the incredibly important calls around reopening phases & mask mandates is a better option if that's what you're suggesting. A consistent approach at the state level is necessary IMO.

Also, I think you may be onto something with Meck's curve. That said, though, if DHHS asks Meck hospital groups if they've changed their COVID admittance policy and the answer comes back as no (i'm sure that's what they've said or would say) what then? Should the state openly accuse hospitals of changing their policy, which has led to an increase in hospitalizations that aren't indicative of more true virus spread? Should the state bake that unconfirmed assumption into policy decisions?

Now if I've missed where Meck hospitals have publicly said they've changed their admittance policy, please disregard the last paragraph. Love the discussion by the way.

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Not asking local officials to make calls, per se, but we should be aware of regional/local trends because they mean more than state trends (just as state trends mean more than country trends)

Now, this has been something consistent since I first came across ICU numbers in early June. Meck hospitals consistently have the lowest percentage of their total C19 patient being ICU patients. You would think C19 level of care would be relatively consistent across all hospital groups... which it basically is except for the Meck % ICU being much lower than everyone else.

But how can you make a public argument that a hospital is fluffing numbers and not seem like you are trying to deny care? The point is... provide the care if you have capacity, but then the policy makers need to be firmer on their confidence in capacity and not be wishy-washy with the "Oh we have capacity, but we are worried, and we aren't sure what is going on". They know, they just can't say it. Hospitalize everyone, collect all the CARES money that your heart desires, but be firm in your confidence.

What does this have to do with COVID?

Just asking a random question so please don't say I'm saying this or that about this or that. The H1N1 flu had 60 million cases. Now, I just admit, I didn't follow that as closely as this, mainly because of my age. Did we close all boarders, shut down any parts of the country, demand social distancing and mask wearing at all times, tank an economy, stop flying, stop living, stop working, etc? I'm just wondering why this flu is getting the attention it is and that one didn't. Was it because a dem was in office and a republican is in now? Is it because this is an election year and that one wasn't? Is it because people hate trump so bad they will go crazy just to get him out of office?(didn't vote for him so it's whatever to me) I'm just seriously wondering why there is such a difference in the way things are being done now as compared to 10 years ago with the H1N1. I also understand the death totals are higher with this flu then the H1N1 was it was reported to have.

I don't know much about H1N1 but COVID19 literally shut down the world in March. I don't think that has anything to do with political parties. The US response has been slow, muddled, and contradictory from the onset and that seems to be driving our continued issues while other countries appear to be out of the woods for now.

Fun fact about H1N1. It is now the most prevalent strain of influenza in the US.

Was supposed to be flying to San Pedro Sula, Honduras this coming Saturday with one of my sons to start a mission trip in a small community we've now been to 4x over the past few years. But of course has long been cancelled.
We had a zoom call with the pastor and his family, and the family that hosts us in their "hotel" when we are there last night...and it is a depressing story.

To limit spread there, armed guards and "jersey barriers" essentially block off access to/out of each community. One day every other week, the hotel owner is allowed to go into the nearby town (no longer to the much bigger city of San Pedro Sula) to get groceries, which he then brings home to distribute in "gift bags" to the locals, because the one convenience store had to close, and most citizens aren't even allowed to go to the small nearby town. The virus in this community has been somewhat mitigated in this community (only 4 people have died...I'd guess ~1000 live there), but the shut-down has destroyed jobs and lack of food / meds are causing other issues.

Many doctors/nurses, who are of course localized in the bigger cities, have actually died. If you live in a community, and get sick, you have to go (and are allowed) to go to one of the bigger cities for treatment -- but it costs about $4k US to even get seen and actually receive treatment, so that greatly limits who can get any help. At the one place within reach that serves patients....they have one oxygen source, that can only serve 4 patients at a time -- but have 275 patients in need right now. So folks truly are just lying in the hallway waiting to die.

I know many of the numbers in America are Hispanic populations being impacted, and the crowded, multi-generation housing they live in is often a cause....so you can imagine in an even more poor environment, that is a huge threat. I'm frankly shocked that more of this one community haven't been impacted, and it would seem to spread like wildfire if so. Maybe the harsh separation will at least help in that regard.

I guess it varies by person, but if I have a 101 fever, I am damn near incapacitated.

Even 99 makes me feel pretty bad. Then again, my normal temp is about 97.8 or so, so maybe 99 is relatively higher to me.

My son can have 101 and you can barely tell he feels bad.

Mine has run low my whole life. Was 97.6 at the doctor when I went for my physical a few weeks ago. Actually read this article not too long ago about it: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/forget-98-6-humans-now-have-lower-body-temperature-on-average-heres-why

Really need to get a handle on this false positive thing. 90 of 144 positives in a CT lab were found to be false positives due to a flaw in test.

https://apnews.com/b98cf80c36d338f833f3a47d84141d11

Wayland said:

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Really need to get a handle on this false positive thing. 90 of 144 positives in a CT lab were found to be false positives due to a flaw in test.

https://apnews.com/b98cf80c36d338f833f3a47d84141d11

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Geez. It takes forever to get results back and when you do, they could be incorrect. What a ****show testing has been.

PackBacker07 said:

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Wayland said:

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Really need to get a handle on this false positive thing. 90 of 144 positives in a CT lab were found to be false positives due to a flaw in test.

https://apnews.com/b98cf80c36d338f833f3a47d84141d11

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Geez. It takes forever to get results back and when you do, they could be incorrect. What a ****show testing has been.

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I had a friend in Massachusetts just test positive. (Was being tested for work, no symptoms) still been working from home. She thought she had it in March but was never tested then.. Thinks it could be either a false positive or one of those detections of old dead virus.

Either way, she is now isolating from her family until 2 weeks is up.

Got an e-mail that my Primary Care Physician's practice is doing the Moderna Vaccine Phase III trials. Called and left a message to get more info and hopefully try to be a part of the trials.

statefan91 said:

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Got an e-mail that my Primary Care Physician's practice is doing the Moderna Vaccine Phase III trials. Called and left a message to get more info and hopefully try to be a part of the trials.

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Awesome. Good luck!

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

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7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

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7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

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7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15

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7/20/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
101,046
NC Deaths
1642
Currently Hospitalized
1086 <- 86% reporting (was 1115 at 86% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,423,888


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
900 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
216 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

526 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1116 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

287 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-3)
Nursing Homes 149 -> 147
Resident Care 103 -> 102
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1676* deaths

1268 positive cases over 29024 new tests. 4.4% positive rate.

Dates of Death Reported 7/20
7/19(2), 7/17(2), 7/16, 7/10, 7/7, 7/6, 6/30, 6/26
8 deaths + 2 previously missing deaths given dates.

Second consecutive day of net drop in congregate outbreaks.

Cases really low. I expected low but not THAT low, so I don't know if that lag is recovered already or it is waiting to drop.

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7/21/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
102,861
NC Deaths
1668
Currently Hospitalized
1179 <- 92% reporting (was 1086 at 86% yesterday) New high by 1
Completed Tests
1,458,997

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
906 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
225 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+9)
+26 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

537 Deaths assumed General Population (+11)
1131 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

295 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 150
Resident Care 102 -> 108
Correctional 24 -> 24
Other 14 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1680* deaths

1815 positive cases over 35103 new tests. 5.2% positive rate.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Dates of Death Reported 7/21
7/20(5), 7/19(5), 7/18(4), 7/17(3), 7/16(3), 7/12, 7/11, 7/9, 7/4 and 2 missing dates

Cases back up a little, but unless there is some super duper lag.. things trending down some.

Hospitalizations big jump out of EHCP (maybe someone who hadn't been reporting?) and MHPC continues to go up despite cases going down. Other hospital groups stable with declining ICU. Would love more insight into what is going on in Charlotte that isn't elsewhere.

Seems like they don't care about finding location of death anymore, 9 unknown is kind of slack.

Giving blood again tomorrow. They appear to be doing the antibody test this time. Will definitely be taking them up on it if so.

Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Has there ever been any attempt at an explanation of this? I mean the 35,103 comes directly from the FRONT PAGE OF THE DASHBOARD and is updated every day. Simple subtraction, right? Same way the Cases and Deaths are posted every single day...

Cohen straight up lying about trend data in the briefing.

Doesn't acknowledge that percent positive is coming down. Harps on the record number of cases reported on the weekend, even though that was an aggregate number showing what happened weeks ago.

Wayland said:

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Cohen straight up lying about trend data in the briefing.

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You're not surprised by that are you??

RunsWithWolves26 said:

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Wayland said:

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Cohen straight up lying about trend data in the briefing.

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You're not surprised by that are you??

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LOL. She's been doing stuff like that for close to two (2) months now. They know that the general public is lazy and stupid and incapable of checking behind them.

TheStorm said:

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Delta Tests is 35103, but DHHS says 24087

Has there ever been any attempt at an explanation of this? I mean the 35,103 comes directly from the FRONT PAGE OF THE DASHBOARD and is updated every day. Simple subtraction, right? Same way the Cases and Deaths are posted every single day...

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Fortunately most data aggregators (CTP especially) does their own math and doesn't use whatever random metric DHHS does.

Today seems to have been a big data clean-up day in the way of cases, based on the graph below. Please note a significant number of cases announced today extend back 6 and seven days. Also, deaths extend back a number of days as well. As you can see from the trend line on the deaths by date portion of the third graph (blue lines), deaths appear to have flattened (had been trending down). I will point out that we are not seeing a "spike" in deaths as many in the media and others have been predicting. While cases continue to rise, along with hospitalizations, the deaths have remained flat for over a week.

I have also included a graph (in response to Dr. Cohen) comparing the calculated percent positive (blue lines) with NCDHHS's daily percent positive as reflected on the published data. As you can see from the graph, both the calculated and the NCDHHS percent positive are both starting to trend down (not up as she stated today). Until recently, the percent positive curves had been relatively flat and only recently began to trend down. I really do not know why she would say the percent positive is trending up when you can actually see it is not. Just for reference, the calculated percent positive is calculated by dividing the daily delta in total cases by the daily delta in total tests.

Cases by Specimen Date (Cases reported today):




Deaths by Date of Death (Deaths reported today):




Deaths by Date of Death (blue lines) vs. Deaths by Date of Reported Death (orange lines) and trends:




Calculated Percent Positive vs NCDHHS Reported Percent Positive:

Daviewolf83 said:

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Today seems to have been a big data clean-up day in the way of cases, based on the graph below. Please note a significant number of cases announced today extend back 6 and seven days. Also, deaths extend back a number of days as well. As you can see from the trend line on the deaths by date portion of the third graph (blue lines), deaths appear to have flattened (had been trending down). I will point out that we are not seeing a "spike" in deaths as many in the media and others have been predicting. While cases continue to rise, along with hospitalizations, the deaths have remained flat for over a week.

I have also included a graph (in response to Dr. Cohen) comparing the calculated percent positive (blue lines) with NCDHHS's daily percent positive as reflected on the published data. As you can see from the graph, both the calculated and the NCDHHS percent positive are both starting to trend down (not up as she stated today). Until recently, the percent positive curves had been relatively flat and only recently began to trend down. I really do not know why she would say the percent positive is trending up when you can actually see it is not. Just for reference, the calculated percent positive is calculated by dividing the daily delta in total cases by the daily delta in total tests.

Cases by Specimen Date (Cases reported today):




Deaths by Date of Death (Deaths reported today):




Deaths by Date of Death (blue lines) vs. Deaths by Date of Reported Death (orange lines) and trends:




Calculated Percent Positive vs NCDHHS Reported Percent Positive:

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Great visualizations. I was really angry today at Cohen's statements and not taking the opportunity to celebrate the positive trends, even when pressed. Continuing to be lazy in using aggregated data to explain trends... I know the media is lazy, but I expect better out of DHHS.

I am honestly really excited at what happens as that 9 day lag window passes over the middle of last week. I know I shouldn't have even cautious optimism, but I do. I get it will be a long slow tail down... but getting over a peak would be huge.

So inspired by your graphs, Davie, I was curious what this Tuesday's report looked like against last Tuesday. So here are the two days side by side with going back 9 days from the current date. Again, a little bit of napkin graphing, so not perfect but the case lag matches pretty well.

Overall totals for Current Date - 9 Days cases:
7/14 - 1901
7/21 - 1709

ncsualum05 said:

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There's a simple reason why Cohen doesn't want to report or show a positive trend. They do not want to get any pressure on the phase 2 status. And with schools being a hot topic right now they don't want things to look better right before they start their cluster**** of a distance/in person combo.

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Bingo

My last visualization today is brought to you with a question. Please note as hospitalizations in North Carolina have continued to rise (except for a couple of small inflection points), the percent positive testing as reported by NCDHHS (this graph uses the updated NCDHHS numbers) has been relatively flat and more recently has started to trend down. I have not put this on the graph, but the point where hospitalizations started to rise in mid-May happened before the Memorial Day weekend. Any effect from the Memorial Day weekend, would not have significantly started to impact hospitalizations until early June. The second inflection point occurred before the July 4th weekend, so it is unlikely July 4 contributed to the next rise in hospitalizations.

The question I will live you to discuss is - Why are hospitalizations continuing to rise, when the percent positive testing has remained relatively flat?




Also, just so you are aware, NCDHHS often goes back and adjusts the percent positive reported. Of course, the media always reports the higher number and never go back to say the percentages reported previously were adjusted down. The graph above uses the current NCDHHS percent positive numbers that include the adjustments. The blue bars are the originally reported percentages and the orange bars are the percentages currently shown on the NCDHHS website.

I see the governor sent out an angry tweet about people not wearing masks. Seen plenty of similar messages on my social media platforms. Maybe my experience is different from other people, but I don't see all these people who are supposedly not wearing masks. Granted, I don't go out much, but in two trips to the teeter and one to the liquor store the last two weekends, I've seen a total of three people not wearing a mask. This is middle of the day on Saturday shopping, and I'm just not seeing all these people "defying basic decency and common sense" to use Cooper's words. Not to mention his mask order says you don't have to wear one if you can maintain social distancing, even indoors, and I can make a decent argument that you can do that in the grocery store. I get that it's a political show, but the temper tantrums definitely aren't going to convince anyone who isn't to wear a mask. As I said to my friend who was complaining on Facebook that half the people in the store weren't wearing a mask, maybe you need to switch up where you shop.