cowboypack02 said:

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So i'm seeing several people on the interwebs today discussing how the COVID-19 rates are being miscalculated and inflated. Anyone else seeing that?

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TheStorm said:

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Snapshot taken 5/21 (~start of Phase 2 was announced 5/22) using NCDHHS Dashboard numbers:
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 7.129% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 0.240% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases - 3.368% (Ongoing Running Average)

Snapshot taken from 5/17 - 5/21 (last 5 days before ~start of Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 5.640% (5 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 12.8 (5 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 5/21 - 6/26 (initial period after announced ~start of Phase 2 [before extension]):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.950% (36 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 16.14 (36 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/21 - 6/26 (last 5 days before weekend prior to scheduled decision on extending Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.616% (5 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 15.4 (5 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/26 - 6/29 (last 3 days before scheduled decision on extending Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 9.225% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 9.33 (3 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/29 - 7/10 (Period starting with Phase 2 extension up to weekend prior to scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.752% (11 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 14 (11 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 7/10 - 7/13 (last 3 days before scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 8.869% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 13.67 (3 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 7/13 - 7/16 (last 3 days AFTER scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.392% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 26 (3 Day Average) *dumped 42 in on Day 1

Snapshot taken 7/16:
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 7.117% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 0.121% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases - 1.699% (Ongoing Running Average)

Additional Notes on Daily Deaths:
Highest reported day was 48 on 4/28
There have only been three (3) total days with over 40 Daily Deaths reported since I started entering the NCDHHS numbers on 4/11 (and we were then only at a Grand Total of 80 Deaths)... 4/28 (48), 5/2 (42), the dump on 7/14 (42)
There have only been five (5) total days with between 30-39 Daily Deaths reported since I started entering the NCDHHS numbers on 4/11... and only two (2) since 6/1 (6/16, 7/1) *trying to illustrate what an anomaly the 7/14 dump was...

General Conclusions:
Daily Deaths for the most part have basically remained flat since the beginning of Phase 2 (announced date)
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests are almost EXACTLY FLAT since the beginning of Phase 2 (number is actually down just a hair)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests (Ongoing Running Average) is DOWN ALMOST 50% since the beginning of Phase 2 *obviously meaning that they are down way more than 50% on a daily basis now v. 5/22
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases (Ongoing Running Average) is DOWN ALMOST 50% since the beginning of Phase 2 *same comment as above

There NEVER WAS the WIDELY REPORTED SPIKE under the initial period of Phase 2.

There was a three (3) day spike just before the announcement to extend Phase 2 (and add the mask mandate) that disappeared immediately afterwards (before the mask mandate could even have an impact)

There was another three (3) day spike just before this week's announcement on the schools that has also (so far) disappeared immediately afterwards.

Numbers are just numbers... Still interesting though... how hospitalizations continue to go up is beyond me...

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Mormad said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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So i'm seeing several people on the interwebs today discussing how the COVID-19 rates are being miscalculated and inflated. Anyone else seeing that?

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Just for clarification, which rates?

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cowboypack02 said:

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Mormad said:

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cowboypack02 said:

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So i'm seeing several people on the interwebs today discussing how the COVID-19 rates are being miscalculated and inflated. Anyone else seeing that?

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Just for clarification, which rates?

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I've seen where both the CDC and Florida are overestimating the number of people infected

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

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7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

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TopsailWolf said:

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I felt crappy for a couple days, then lost taste/smell for about 3 days (felt fine otherwise). I never had a fever. Wife started feeling bad about a week after me and has had the nagging cough for close to 2 weeks now, but she's also not had a fever and feels okay other than the cough. Our little one has been a little extra needy for 4-5 days but no fever or any other symptoms as far as we can tell.

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

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7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

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7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

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TopsailWolf said:

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What happens after they determine you have it? Wilmington Health gave me a printed packet stating that I needed to self quarantine 10 days from TAKING the test or 14 days from START of symptoms. In hindsight I had symptoms 6-7 days before I even got tested, then waited 8 days to get my results back, then quarantined for 10 days per the recommendation but frankly that was probably overdone due to the fact that it was a week after initial symptoms before I knew I was exposed to somebody who had it.

Were you able to determine exactly how you were exposed to it?
We ate dinner with my dad on the Friday of Father's Day weekend. He called me a week and a half later and let me know he had been tested and results were positive, but I had no idea he was even sick. So, while I felt a little crappy the following wed/thurs after we ate I didn't think much of it. I had no fever, no real symptoms outside of moderate fatigue and we have a newborn and I had gone back to work on no sleep so just assumed I needed to catch up on some rest.

How did they handle contacting others that you or immediate family members had been in contact with after your household was first exposed?

The only follow up to my knowledge, there was no follow-up of any kind with any contact points with the exception of my mom and MIL self quarantining after I let them know I had been exposed to my dad who tested positive. I recommended my office coordinator at work to be tested, but my company, nor Wilmington Health who did the testing gave any recommendation on notifying others who I had been around. *Note- I work in healthcare and have been wearing a mask since the end of March

Did you go an emergency room (Pender or New Hanover), and if so, what was that experience like as compared to something more "normal"?

No. myself, my wife, and infant daughter all had very mild symptoms so no need to go to hospital. I have a buddy who's a PA next door to my PT clinic and I let him know the story and had him order a test for me on the way home the day I found out.

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Wayland said:

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So about that hospitalization data. Let's take a look.


Look familiar, it was the same data I was providing (can't get pic to link)


ICUs. First notice they don't go far back, like I said in the past, they didn't start collecting this information until early May. Next, that jump in the Triad (20 ICU patients in one day), looks more like a reclassification (like identifying a Step-Down unit as ICU for tracking purposes)... or maybe that jump is purely organic.



Oddly enough ICUs were actually declining when the order was made to continue Phase 2 and a mask order was put into place. Maybe that is why they didn't want this out at the time.


Lots to dive into.

It looks like all hospitalizations were pretty stable until the extension of Phase 2 and the mask order when they immediately started to climb, especially in Meck (and a week later Triad). Order extension around the 24th, almost immediately Meck hospitals start admitted a whole bunch of non-ICU patients.

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Quote:

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People being counted as COVID patients but who are not sick with COVID-Like Illness

Examples:
- Tested positive PCR or AB for COV2 but no symptoms
- awaiting test results and considered a "suspected" case while waiting but no symptoms
- Test neg w/undiagnosed symptoms

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Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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So about that hospitalization data. Let's take a look.


Look familiar, it was the same data I was providing (can't get pic to link)


ICUs. First notice they don't go far back, like I said in the past, they didn't start collecting this information until early May. Next, that jump in the Triad (20 ICU patients in one day), looks more like a reclassification (like identifying a Step-Down unit as ICU for tracking purposes)... or maybe that jump is purely organic.



Oddly enough ICUs were actually declining when the order was made to continue Phase 2 and a mask order was put into place. Maybe that is why they didn't want this out at the time.


Lots to dive into.

It looks like all hospitalizations were pretty stable until the extension of Phase 2 and the mask order when they immediately started to climb, especially in Meck (and a week later Triad). Order extension around the 24th, almost immediately Meck hospitals start admitted a whole bunch of non-ICU patients.

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Why'd you change the data filter for the last graph? Just curious as I'm not sure I'm following that last point. Thanks!

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It shows as soon as the governor made the order to extend Phase 2 and implement a mask order, Meck hospitals instantly almost doubled their admission rates of Covid patients. We can see from the surveillance that ICU admits didn't follow along with such a sharp increase but that the number of non-critical patients has grown significantly the last two weeks. That growth was initially limited to one hospital group and came immediately AFTER the announcement was made. Hospitalizations had been stable (and ICUs even declining) UNTIL the announcement and somehow trends (especially in Meck) turned on a dime when the governor spoke.

Announced continuation of Phase 2 -> Hospital admission policy change to allow admit more non-critical patients -> Overall hospitalizations increase lead to impression that things are getting worse when it is a business decision (77k per patient in CARES money + expenses) -> Restrictions stay in place. It is a loop.

Again, let's provide the necessary care to anyone, but when we aren't honest with what the numbers are and we use it to drive fear, that is not good. The business decision for hospitals can be a win-win because they provide additional care, but then we have media (looking at your WRAL) announcing "OMFG RECORD HOSPITALIZATIONS DOOM IS COMING". Not helpful.

Wake is right behind Meck in case growth but CapRAC (inlcudes WakeMed hospitals) and MCRHC (includes Rex/UNC) don't show that same growth.

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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acslater1344 said:

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Wayland said:

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So about that hospitalization data. Let's take a look.


Look familiar, it was the same data I was providing (can't get pic to link)


ICUs. First notice they don't go far back, like I said in the past, they didn't start collecting this information until early May. Next, that jump in the Triad (20 ICU patients in one day), looks more like a reclassification (like identifying a Step-Down unit as ICU for tracking purposes)... or maybe that jump is purely organic.



Oddly enough ICUs were actually declining when the order was made to continue Phase 2 and a mask order was put into place. Maybe that is why they didn't want this out at the time.


Lots to dive into.

It looks like all hospitalizations were pretty stable until the extension of Phase 2 and the mask order when they immediately started to climb, especially in Meck (and a week later Triad). Order extension around the 24th, almost immediately Meck hospitals start admitted a whole bunch of non-ICU patients.

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Why'd you change the data filter for the last graph? Just curious as I'm not sure I'm following that last point. Thanks!

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It shows as soon as the governor made the order to extend Phase 2 and implement a mask order, Meck hospitals instantly almost doubled their admission rates of Covid patients. We can see from the surveillance that ICU admits didn't follow along with such a sharp increase but that the number of non-critical patients has grown significantly the last two weeks. That growth was initially limited to one hospital group and came immediately AFTER the announcement was made. Hospitalizations had been stable (and ICUs even declining) UNTIL the announcement and somehow trends (especially in Meck) turned on a dime when the governor spoke.

Announced continuation of Phase 2 -> Hospital admission policy change to allow admit more non-critical patients -> Overall hospitalizations increase lead to impression that things are getting worse when it is a business decision (77k per patient in CARES money + expenses) -> Restrictions stay in place. It is a loop.

Again, let's provide the necessary care to anyone, but when we aren't honest with what the numbers are and we use it to drive fear, that is not good. The business decision for hospitals can be a win-win because they provide additional care, but then we have media (looking at your WRAL) announcing "OMFG RECORD HOSPITALIZATIONS DOOM IS COMING". Not helpful.

Wake is right behind Meck in case growth but CapRAC (inlcudes WakeMed hospitals) and MCRHC (includes Rex/UNC) don't show that same growth.

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Gotcha. I still don't quite follow how you filtered the last graph though to illustrate that point. If you look at the confirm 24 hour admittance data statewide, it tells a different story. Phase 2 extension announced 6/24, with 97 new admits that same day. The next 5 days all had LESS admits than the day the order was announced, and it wasn't until 7/8 when 24-hour admits really spiked (131 confirm cased admits). Now if you drill into specific regions/hospital groups, the story may change a bit, but for this discussion i would think the state wise data is more relevant.

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

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7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

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7/18/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
97,958
NC Deaths
1629
Currently Hospitalized
1154 <- XX% reporting (was 1180 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,379,143


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
897 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
210 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+23 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

522 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
1107 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

300 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+7)
Nursing Homes 155 -> 157
Resident Care 100 -> 104
Correctional 25 -> 25
Other 13 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1634* deaths

2481 positive cases over 35,619 new tests. 7.1% positive rate.

New high (by 19 cases) comes after last new high, maybe back to patterned reporting.

Day over day delta in completed tests is 35,619, but DHHS says it is only 23,440.

Deaths today, 3 Wake and 3 Meck again.
23 Deaths reported 7/18 by Date of Death:
7/17(4), 7/16(7), 7/15(3), 7/14(2), 7/12(5). Two deaths with no date.

Today's number of new tests is the highest delta day over day yet! Also there are some positive signs with plateauing when looking back 9 days based on Date of Specimen collection being mostly complete. Hopefully things can level or trend down soon.

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7/19/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
99,778
NC Deaths
1634
Currently Hospitalized
1115 <- 86% reporting (was 1154 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,394,864


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898 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
212 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+5 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

524 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1110 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

290 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-10)
Nursing Homes 157 -> 149
Resident Care 104 -> 103
Correctional 25 -> 24
Other 14 -> 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1651* deaths

1820 positive cases over 15721 new tests. 11.6% positive rate.

It looks like the reporting lag has settled on a pattern and being a Sunday we are seeing more electronic and less lab cases. We will see if any lag changes affect this new pattern (with the peak Saturday).
Part of the reason for the case drop on Sundays is that the last few days of the lagging data (9 days out) now fall on a weekend, so there are less of those lagged cases to report. We'd expect tomorrow to be about the same and then a small bump up on Tuesday as the lagged cases (9 days out) now start falling on a weekday again.


Going to review county data, but don't expect to see much on a Sunday.

Deaths today: 7/18, 7/17(3), 7/15

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