I'm fine. Wife has a nagging cough, and baby has been very whiny and feeding every 1.5-2 hours. Tired of all this mess

I was looking at some of Michael Levitt's county level modelling. And as best I could read he had Meck and Guilford peaking their current outbreaks in late June. Wake still looked like it was on the way up on the current 'outbreak curve'.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Saw some other models that had NC counties trending towards leveling. But hard to read so many little outbreaks at once.

TopsailWolf said:

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I'm fine. Wife has a nagging cough, and baby has been very whiny and feeding every 1.5-2 hours. Tired of all this mess

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Sorry to hear this Topsail, prayers are with your family. May I ask how long you've had symptoms? I fought Covid back in March, and had a pretty drawn out timeline compared to some. Hoping you all recover quickly, especially your youngster!

I felt crappy for a couple days, then lost taste/smell for about 3 days (felt fine otherwise). I never had a fever. Wife started feeling bad about a week after me and has had the nagging cough for close to 2 weeks now, but she's also not had a fever and feels okay other than the cough. Our little one has been a little extra needy for 4-5 days but no fever or any other symptoms as far as we can tell.

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

---

7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

---

7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

---

7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

---

7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

---

7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.

---

7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.

---

7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1438* deaths

1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.

Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.

Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.

I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.

---

7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1459* deaths

1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.

New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.

Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.

---

7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1468* deaths

2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.

Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.

Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.

Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.

---

7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1493* deaths

1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)

Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.

---

7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
83,795
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1507* deaths

2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.

Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.

Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22

Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.

Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.

Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?

---

7/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
85,701
NC Deaths
1503
Currently Hospitalized
1070 <- 84% reporting (was 1093 at 88% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,199,575


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
181 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

467 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
1036 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1523* deaths

1908 positive cases over 23517 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Weird things with death numbers today. Numbers are all shifted around, 1 less GenPop, + 5 Unknown, and it looked like some deaths from within Congregate actually shifted source. Strange.

Will keep looking into county and day of death and post when done.

Dates of Death ADDED Today:
7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5, 626
Dates of Death REMOVED Today:
6/19, 5/31

County level even STRANGER:
Counties with Deaths ADDED Today
Forsyth(1), Orange(1), Union (1), Wake (5), Wilkes (1)
Counties with Deaths REMOVED Today
Guilford(-2), Hoke (-1), New Hanover (-1), Robeson (-1)

That is now 22 deaths for Wake reported in the last 6 days. Wake has reported 18 deaths so far with a date of death in July. Worst two weeks for fatalities in Wake are the last 2 weeks.

Also odd. Only about 30% of cases reported today contained the ethnicity demographic information that is historically available in just under two thirds of all cases.

---

7/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
87,528
NC Deaths
1510
Currently Hospitalized
1040 <- 80% reporting (was 1070 at 84% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,220,486


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
186 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

469 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1041 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1533* deaths

1827 positive cases over 20911 new tests. 8.7% positive rate.

Deaths today appear to be from Meck(4), Durham(2), and Surry

Date of Deaths added today: 7/12, 7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5(2), 7/4
One death was changed from missing to actual date.

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7/14/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
89,484
NC Deaths
1552
Currently Hospitalized
1109 <- 91% reporting (was 1040 at 80% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,254,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
874 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
189 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+42 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

489 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1063 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

264 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1551* deaths

1956 positive cases over 34360 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

34360 new tests but DHHS claims only 23623 were completed today.

Looks like DHHS caught up on ALL their deaths today. Going to take me a while to sort this out because the graph doesn't look like too much changed.

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7/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
91,266
NC Deaths
1568
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 89% reporting (was 1109 at 91% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,284,637


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
882 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
189 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

497 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1071 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

264 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1587* deaths

1782 positive cases over 29,791 new tests. 6.0% positive rate.

New high hospitalizations. We continue to need better insight into this data. As usual am breaking down county and date info and will update.

Dates of Death Reported today:
7/14(2), 7/13, 7/12(4), 7/11(2), 7/10(4), 7/6, 7/1, 6/26, 6/21, 6/19

https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2020/07/09/a-conversation-with-john-ioannidis/

Wake has added another 5 deaths to their county page (which I assume will get added to DHHS tomorrow or later this week). Things really turned for the worse in July.

I am a little surprised that given this that Wake hasn't outpaced Meck with identified cases in recent weeks. I have always thought Meck was far ahead and maybe even on the backside, but they are still putting out the highest case numbers.

Hopefully this peak in Wake is short lived and can get over the top and back down the other side soon.

Wayland said:

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https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2020/07/09/a-conversation-with-john-ioannidis/

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That was excellent

Charlotte has decided on all remote....after a 2 week orientation? I don't get it. Will just hope that our Pre-K program lets us defer enrollment.

I like the idea of giving the students a week or so to meet the teachers and get familiar with procedures before going to remote learning...I can't imagine trying to get all students on board with virtual procedures without seeing them at least a couple of days to prepare. Think about all the kids who's parents don't speak English or have no idea about technology...who's going to keep those students accountable?

Interesting broad perspective piece in The Atlantic recently. It's a different take than some here have. Not doomsaying, but it does paint a sobering picture of how things could turn out. I don't think the data is strong enough to provide a definitive sense of where we're headed, for better or worse. We all bring our hopes, fears, and preconceptions into our personal analyses - myself included of course. Given all that, I don't think these scenarios are out of the question at all, despite hopes for a better ending and our best efforts to find basis for those hopes. Anyway, an interesting read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html

Let's hope they make this data available to the public again soon.

FuzzyRed said:

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Interesting broad perspective piece in The Atlantic recently. It's a different take than some here have. Not doomsaying, but it does paint a sobering picture of how things could turn out. I don't think the data is strong enough to provide a definitive sense of where we're headed, for better or worse. We all bring our hopes, fears, and preconceptions into our personal analyses - myself included of course. Given all that, I don't think these scenarios are out of the question at all, despite hopes for a better ending and our best efforts to find basis for those hopes. Anyway, an interesting read.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

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A little doomsaying.

Quote:

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Take that lower number and imagine that roughly 40 percent of the country becomes infected. That's 800,000 lives lost.

The point in laying out these scenarios is not that we'll reach 300,000 or 800,000 American COVID-19 deaths. That still seems unlikely. But anyone who thinks we can just ride out the storm has perhaps not engaged with the reality of the problem.

---

To lay out scenarios that even the author admits are unlikely to occur and then say others who don't agree with these numbers are not engaged in reality.

I think he greatly oversimplifies a number of things and then makes the mistake as a super amateur modeler (like we all do) and throws down some top level numbers, assume that it applies to 100% of the population across the entire country, and come up with a number that will fit his narrative. However (in his own words) 'unlikely' it is.

Saying all this is a result of 'opening too soon', IMO, is a gross oversimplification of the problem. Even without fully acknowledging the border crisis in AZ, TX, and CA. Or the potential negative effects that C19 related policy can have (delay in care deaths, suicides, overdoses, mental health).

So, not saying he doesn't have valid points, just think he has some gross oversimplification and he invokes the 'T' word. As someone who both has no love for the current administration and does not view this pandemic as political issue, I have to step back. There is plenty of blame for politicians of every ilk in this and the day of reckoning will come, but now playing 'blame game' is just going to make it harder to resolve for every one.

(sorry, rant off)

EDIT: This article came up in my feed after I posted.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/

acslater1344 said:

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html

Let's hope they make this data available to the public again soon.

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Agreed. Transparency in data is paramount in this and any kind of gap is not good. They probably should have run the data in parallel for a while before HHS took over.

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

---

7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

---

7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1400* deaths

1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.

After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!

Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.

Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.

Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.

---

7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)

220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1417* deaths

2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.

Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?

I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.

All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.

Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198

---

7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1420* deaths

1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.

So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.

Another weird day with deaths.

Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30

Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)

County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.

On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)

---

7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)

231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1425* deaths

1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.

County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.

Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.

I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.

I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.

County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.

---

7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)

233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1426* deaths

1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.

Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.

Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.

Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.

---

7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1438* deaths

1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.

Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.

Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.

I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.

---

7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)

244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1459* deaths

1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.

New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.

Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.

Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.

---

7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)

250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1468* deaths

2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.

Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.

Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.

Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.

---

7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)

252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1493* deaths

1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)

Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.

---

7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
83,795
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)

262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1507* deaths

2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.

Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.

Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22

Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.

Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.

Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?

---

7/12/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
85,701
NC Deaths
1503
Currently Hospitalized
1070 <- 84% reporting (was 1093 at 88% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,199,575


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
181 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

467 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
1036 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1523* deaths

1908 positive cases over 23517 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Weird things with death numbers today. Numbers are all shifted around, 1 less GenPop, + 5 Unknown, and it looked like some deaths from within Congregate actually shifted source. Strange.

Will keep looking into county and day of death and post when done.

Dates of Death ADDED Today:
7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5, 626
Dates of Death REMOVED Today:
6/19, 5/31

County level even STRANGER:
Counties with Deaths ADDED Today
Forsyth(1), Orange(1), Union (1), Wake (5), Wilkes (1)
Counties with Deaths REMOVED Today
Guilford(-2), Hoke (-1), New Hanover (-1), Robeson (-1)

That is now 22 deaths for Wake reported in the last 6 days. Wake has reported 18 deaths so far with a date of death in July. Worst two weeks for fatalities in Wake are the last 2 weeks.

Also odd. Only about 30% of cases reported today contained the ethnicity demographic information that is historically available in just under two thirds of all cases.

---

7/13/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
87,528
NC Deaths
1510
Currently Hospitalized
1040 <- 80% reporting (was 1070 at 84% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,220,486


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
186 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

469 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1041 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1533* deaths

1827 positive cases over 20911 new tests. 8.7% positive rate.

Deaths today appear to be from Meck(4), Durham(2), and Surry

Date of Deaths added today: 7/12, 7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5(2), 7/4
One death was changed from missing to actual date.

---

7/14/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
89,484
NC Deaths
1552
Currently Hospitalized
1109 <- 91% reporting (was 1040 at 80% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,254,846


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
874 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
189 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+42 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

489 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1063 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

264 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1551* deaths

1956 positive cases over 34360 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

34360 new tests but DHHS claims only 23623 were completed today.

Looks like DHHS caught up on ALL their deaths today. Going to take me a while to sort this out because the graph doesn't look like too much changed.

---

7/15/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
91,266
NC Deaths
1568
Currently Hospitalized
1142 <- 89% reporting (was 1109 at 91% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,284,637


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
882 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
189 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+16 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

497 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1071 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

264 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1587* deaths

1782 positive cases over 29,791 new tests. 6.0% positive rate.

New high hospitalizations. We continue to need better insight into this data. As usual am breaking down county and date info and will update.

Dates of Death Reported today:
7/14(2), 7/13, 7/12(4), 7/11(2), 7/10(4), 7/6, 7/1, 6/26, 6/21, 6/19

---

7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

I had to do a double take at the Congregate Facility calculation and entered it 5 times. Will have to see if that gets mentioned, but a +19 in outbreaks in one day seems to indicate something going on. State testing facilities and finding basically everyone infected?

Deaths really filling in this week turning our lower numbers into levelling. May even have a short increase as Wake goes through this peak. Will post dates and county level data shortly.

Wake with 6 additional deaths reported.

Case data seems to be heavily weight to early week cases (Mon Tues) with 3 day lag and not the 7 day lag cases. So likely the electronically reported ones?

Date of Deaths. 20 deaths mostly fell into the last two weeks, with one death unaccounted for.
7/14(7), 7/13(3), 7/12(3), 7/11, 7/9/, 7/8, 7/7, 7/6, 7/4

You're probably right on reason for so many outbreaks at congregate care. They're doing more hotspot testing and probably finding outbreaks that were already occurring, they just didn't have the positive tests to confirm it.

Wayland, there was an article last night on the WBTV (Charlotte) local news about the # of cong care facilities that were reported with outbreaks....because there was one they had heard from in Gastonia that had an outbreak, but had never been on the list.

Not sure if that was a timing situation or if these are being under-reported in general, and perhaps a catching up?

statefan91 said:

---

You're probably right on reason for so many outbreaks at congregate care. They're doing more hotspot testing and probably finding outbreaks that were already occurring, they just didn't have the positive tests to confirm it.

---

They better address this at 2pm.

I had cache data so could actually see the changes from yesterday.

Nursing Homes went from 136 to 147
Residential Care from 92 to 99
Other from 12 to 13

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/marco-rubio-says-remdesivir-shortage-due-to-disconnect-with-trump-administration.html

"Republican Sen. Marco Rubio said Thursday that shortages of a coronavirus treatment being reported in Florida's hospitals are due to a "bad disconnect" with the Trump administration about his state's needs.

Rubio, whose state is grappling with a massive surge in Covid-19 cases, said on Twitter that he's heard reports as recently as "late last night" that "several hospitals" in Florida have "low or no supplies" of remdesivir, an antiviral drug developed by Gilead Sciences.

Shipments of the drug to Florida are coordinated by the federal government, Rubio tweeted, and 'we have a bad disconnect between what they think we need & what we really need.'"


Please, please get it together down there.

https://www.wfdd.org/story/covid-19-community-research-partnership-predicts-asymptomatic-numbers-triad

Some talk about the WF Baptist AB study.

Cohen said new hospital data coming on dashboard as soon as tomorrow night. FINALLY.

Wayland said:

---

Cohen said new hospital data coming on dashboard as soon as tomorrow night. FINALLY.

---

Just wait until you see it... they ain't completely stupid.

CLI is out.

Overall Admits and ICU admits in PHE up a touch week over week. ICU admits still below what they were a month ago. Still LOTS of Non-ICU COVID admits last 2 weeks



More people coming to ERs with CLI but lower percentage of them have to stay.



OK. Here I am missing something. Admits for 65+, 50-64, and 25-49 all are CLEARLY DOWN. 18-24 is level and 5-17 is down. How is it possible for the total admits to go up?

Bonus positive. For second straight week, Percent positive at PHE facilities is down.

Two week, 13545 tests to find 1423 positive
Last week, 14070 tests to find 1315 positive
This week, 16857 tests to find 1436 positive

Quote:

---

Our results indicate that a wide variation in reported levels ofexposure to SARS-CoV-2 can arise as a result of differences in the proportion of the population resistant to infection (). High levels of seropositivity can arise under a reasonable range of and where HIT is nonetheless lower thanR0the proportion of the population already exposed (Figure S2). Equally, seropositivity measures of 10-20% are entirelycompatible with local levels of immunity having approached or even exceeded the HIT, in which case the risk andscale of resurgence is lower than currently perceived.

---

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf

Snapshot taken 5/21 (~start of Phase 2 was announced 5/22) using NCDHHS Dashboard numbers:
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 7.129% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 0.240% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases - 3.368% (Ongoing Running Average)

Snapshot taken from 5/17 - 5/21 (last 5 days before ~start of Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 5.640% (5 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 12.8 (5 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 5/21 - 6/26 (initial period after announced ~start of Phase 2 [before extension]):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.950% (36 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 16.14 (36 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/21 - 6/26 (last 5 days before weekend prior to scheduled decision on extending Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.616% (5 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 15.4 (5 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/26 - 6/29 (last 3 days before scheduled decision on extending Phase 2):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 9.225% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 9.33 (3 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 6/29 - 7/10 (Period starting with Phase 2 extension up to weekend prior to scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.752% (11 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 14 (11 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 7/10 - 7/13 (last 3 days before scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 8.869% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 13.67 (3 Day Average)

Snapshot taken from 7/13 - 7/16 (last 3 days AFTER scheduled decision on schools):
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 6.392% (3 Day Average)
Daily Deaths - 26 (3 Day Average) *dumped 42 in on Day 1

Snapshot taken 7/16:
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 7.117% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests - 0.121% (Ongoing Running Average)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases - 1.699% (Ongoing Running Average)

Additional Notes on Daily Deaths:
Highest reported day was 48 on 4/28
There have only been three (3) total days with over 40 Daily Deaths reported since I started entering the NCDHHS numbers on 4/11 (and we were then only at a Grand Total of 80 Deaths)... 4/28 (48), 5/2 (42), the dump on 7/14 (42)
There have only been five (5) total days with between 30-39 Daily Deaths reported since I started entering the NCDHHS numbers on 4/11... and only two (2) since 6/1 (6/16, 7/1) *trying to illustrate what an anomaly the 7/14 dump was...

General Conclusions:
Daily Deaths for the most part have basically remained flat since the beginning of Phase 2 (announced date)
Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests are almost EXACTLY FLAT since the beginning of Phase 2 (number is actually down just a hair)
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests (Ongoing Running Average) is DOWN ALMOST 50% since the beginning of Phase 2 *obviously meaning that they are down way more than 50% on a daily basis now v. 5/22
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases (Ongoing Running Average) is DOWN ALMOST 50% since the beginning of Phase 2 *same comment as above

There NEVER WAS the WIDELY REPORTED SPIKE under the initial period of Phase 2.

There was a three (3) day spike just before the announcement to extend Phase 2 (and add the mask mandate) that disappeared immediately afterwards (before the mask mandate could even have an impact)

There was another three (3) day spike just before this week's announcement on the schools that has also (so far) disappeared immediately afterwards.

Numbers are just numbers... Still interesting though... how hospitalizations continue to go up is beyond me...

Oh, and the HIGHEST the Ongoing Running Averages were for:

Confirmed Cases as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests was 8.51% on 4/20.
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Completed Tests was 0.301% on 5/2.
Confirmed Deaths as a PERCENTAGE of Confirmed Cases was 3.80% on 5/8.

packgrad said:

---

---

The big controversy out of England (from the data people) is that you are never 'cured' of COVID. If you ever had COVID and subsequently ever die (for whatever reason, in whatever time frame) you are a COVID death.

I suspected something similar in Mass, since their numbers should be probably lower right now and are so smoothly exiting.

Quote:

---

7/16/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
93,426
NC Deaths
1588
Currently Hospitalized
1134 <- 90% reporting (was 1142 at 89% yesterday) Higher % Lower Total. Stable
Completed Tests
1,312,757


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
888 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
196 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

504 Deaths assumed General Population (+7)
1084 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+13)

283 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+19)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1604* deaths

2160 positive cases over 28,120 new tests. 7.7% positive rate.

---

7/17/2020 Morning DHHS update

NC Cases
95,477
NC Deaths
1606
Currently Hospitalized
1180 <- 90% reporting (was 1134 at 91% yesterday) Higher % Higher Total. New High
Completed Tests
1,343,974


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
892 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
204 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+8)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

510 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
1096 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

293 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
Nursing Homes 147 -> 155
Resident Care 99 -> 100
Correctional 24 -> 25
Other 13 -> 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1629* deaths

2051 positive cases over 31,217 new tests. 6.7% positive rate.
*DHHS added 31,217 new tests today but claims only 25,555 completed tests.

Deaths by Date of Death 7/17 - 18 new deaths, 1 previously missing.
7/16(3), 7/15(6), 7/14(3), 7/10(2), 7/9, 7/1, 6/28(2), 6/25
It appears one death may have been added that was previously missing a date.

Cumberland, Wake, and Meck each with 3 deaths reported today.

So i'm seeing several people on the interwebs today discussing how the COVID-19 rates are being miscalculated and inflated. Anyone else seeing that?