I am really hopeful about some of those states this week. People have been reporting some leading edge leveling or downward trends. Now, it will be a slow walk down, but if they can start to turn the corner, it would be huge.
Coronavirus
2,796,838 Views |
20388 Replies |
Last: 18 hrs ago by Oldsouljer
I updated this based on the last few days, we will likely see the July data creep back up a little with mid-week posting. But just to follow along. Will be interesting to see if congregate deaths can get past the next few days without getting padded.
Just to follow again on what Davie is showing. Here is the DHHS graph showing cases by collection date. I am curious how the data that comes in over the next few days fills in and how it compares to two weeks ago.Daviewolf83 said:
I have updated a couple of charts today. I expect some in the media to start trying to make a point about deaths increasing, if they use graphs that show deaths by date reported instead of deaths by the of the death. WRAL did exactly this last week. So I have updated the graph that shows deaths by the date of death with trend lines (blue lines) and deaths by the date of the report by NCDHHS (orange lines). As you can clearly see, deaths by the date of death (the appropriate way to look at this data) are trending down, while deaths by the date the deaths were reported are trending up. This is all due to the fact that the data has lags associated with validation of the deaths to insure they are actually Covid-19 deaths.
The other graph shows cases by specimen date for the cases reported today. It appears the case reporting still has about a 12 to 14 day lag. I assume this is still due to testing capacity and getting all of the reports in from the labs and hospitals.
Deaths by Date of Death vs Deaths by Date of Report with Trend Lines:
Cases by Specimen Date for the 7/12 Update:
Been a few days since I posted, looked at the UNC System over the weekend and saw a big day of admissions on Friday with 27, the biggest single day of admissions all time... Total patients jumped up to 144 over the weekend but as of 8p today they sat at 128... Be interesting to see if the numbers keep falling or if 120ish is where they stay for the week...
Our highest census yet...76 in house, 15 in ICU, 5 vented
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Mormad and JasonNCSU - Thank you for the updates. Hospitalizations are the most worrisome thing to me and something I can not seem to reconcile from the percent positives that appear to be flat or even slightly decreasing. From the Greensboro numbers, it does seem the ICU percentage might be down slightly, which would be a good sign. I am just looking for any hopeful information we can find. It does appear deaths are definitely declining, but there are still too many people being admitted to the hospital.Mormad said:
Our highest census yet...76 in house, 15 in ICU, 5 vented
I just made a post on my Facebook page, reminding people to keep wearing masks, social distancing, and washing hands. I do not know what else we can do at this point to reduce the numbers in the hospitals. Those are all things in our control and as I tell my son all the time - focus on what you can control to keep yourself and others safe.
Wayland, in regards to the % of hospitals reporting is that weighted in any manner or is it completely random in nature? Just was wondering if there was a way that you could extrapolate the numbers to 100% (which of course would still be just an estimate and not exact even if the % number is weighted)... I was just curious.
Also, looking back at the last six or seven days of the NCDHHS numbers I find it really curious that hospitalizations were already trending upward steadily for a period of time (which we've already discussed questions as to why or why not many times here) but positive cases as a % of tests has been holding steady for multiple weeks... last three (3) days we all of a sudden get a huge spike in these numbers (and believe it or not I even heard "positive cases as a % of tests" being used on a local NC newscast this morning for the very first time ever, LOL)...
Anything important happening today? And if so, how long has it been scheduled to take place?
I'll hang up and listen.
Also, looking back at the last six or seven days of the NCDHHS numbers I find it really curious that hospitalizations were already trending upward steadily for a period of time (which we've already discussed questions as to why or why not many times here) but positive cases as a % of tests has been holding steady for multiple weeks... last three (3) days we all of a sudden get a huge spike in these numbers (and believe it or not I even heard "positive cases as a % of tests" being used on a local NC newscast this morning for the very first time ever, LOL)...
Anything important happening today? And if so, how long has it been scheduled to take place?
I'll hang up and listen.
Cooper is going to announce his plan for schools at 3 PM today.
I assume the Hospitalizations rising despite % of positive cases remaining flat is just due to volume of tests being completed at this point meaning they find more people meaning they hospitalize more that are known covid patients.
There's probably an increase in testing of those coming to the hospital already so it's a matter of hospitalization WITH covid vs. hospitalization FROM covid.
There's probably an increase in testing of those coming to the hospital already so it's a matter of hospitalization WITH covid vs. hospitalization FROM covid.
From my observation, percent hospitals is just Total Hospitals Reporting/Total Hospitals. So if Small Town Memorial and their 1 COVID patient doesn't report one day, it would have the same impact on the Percent Reported as Big City General and their 50 COVID patients. Of course the total hospitalizations would differ greatly, but the percent reporting is independent of how many patients each hospital has.TheStorm said:
Wayland, in regards to the % of hospitals reporting is that weighted in any manner or is it completely random in nature? Just was wondering if there was a way that you could extrapolate the numbers to 100% (which of course would still be just an estimate and not exact even if the % number is weighted)... I was just curious.
Also, looking back at the last six or seven days of the NCDHHS numbers I find it really curious that hospitalizations were already trending upward steadily for a period of time (which we've already discussed questions as to why or why not many times here) but positive cases as a % of tests has been holding steady for multiple weeks... last three (3) days we all of a sudden get a huge spike in these numbers (and believe it or not I even heard "positive cases as a % of tests" being used on a local NC newscast this morning for the very first time ever, LOL)...
Anything important happening today? And if so, how long has it been scheduled to take place?
I'll hang up and listen.
I don't think there is anything nefarious (despite hospitals getting $77k per COVID patient in excess of medical costs due to compensation for other lost procedures). I think it is mostly due to how COVID patients are being counted (plus it actually does take time to clear patients once they are in).
I don't know about hospitalizations, but with cases, I would be shocked if there wasn't a Cooper Effect today. Every day Cooper talks, somehow they manage to aggregate as many cases as possible into that day's report.
It looks like we are finally seeing the effects of the community spread and it is being clouded less by congregate outbreaks. Most of the recent outbreaks seem limited to staff and a couple patients at most. I don't recall hearing about any massive ones like we had in the beginning, but to be honest with well over 200 outbreaks, I mostly just skim those reports now.
statefan91 said:Thanks for posting. I have a son that has the option of starting a Pre-K Montessori program in the public school system and it just seems impossible to plan to do a 1 Week On, 2 Weeks Off schedule for Pre-K.packgrad said:
My wife is a Head Start teacher and is still trying to figure out how they're going to do it. I thought Durham had a good take on Plan B where high school students are remote, and middle and elementary are in house. They will use the high schools as additional classrooms for the elementary and middle schools so they can better spread out. My opinion aside on virus transmission with young people, I thought that was a thoughtful solution.
My wife's County, as she's been told so far, does not have the same plan. Sounds more like the plan you've been told of.
I figured that was probably the case on the Hospital reporting numbers but I knew that I could ask you and you would know for sure. Thanks for the answer.
In regards to Confirmed Cases as a % of Completed Tests (and I'm sure you remember that I've only been tracking the running averages) - the last time I had a running average this high was on June 29 (it went from 7.030% on Friday, June 26 to 7.163% on Monday, June 29) - and then it leveled back off immediately and has stayed pretty level overall since then until now (all of a sudden it just went from 7.069% on Friday, July 10 to 7.172% Monday, July 13).
1. It takes a lot to impact a running average that is almost four (4) months in the making at this point.
2. Why do these major spikes only occur when a major decision gets announced? I mean, it's like clockwork...
Any additional thoughts?
In regards to Confirmed Cases as a % of Completed Tests (and I'm sure you remember that I've only been tracking the running averages) - the last time I had a running average this high was on June 29 (it went from 7.030% on Friday, June 26 to 7.163% on Monday, June 29) - and then it leveled back off immediately and has stayed pretty level overall since then until now (all of a sudden it just went from 7.069% on Friday, July 10 to 7.172% Monday, July 13).
1. It takes a lot to impact a running average that is almost four (4) months in the making at this point.
2. Why do these major spikes only occur when a major decision gets announced? I mean, it's like clockwork...
Any additional thoughts?
Agreed - everything seemed to indicate that the younger the child, the less impact of the virus / spreading the virus. A plan where they split up the age ranges based on competency and ability to do virtual work makes sense, unfortunate that it doesn't sound like this is getting any play.
My only question for the specific school my son is scheduled for is whether it's already operating at a reduced capacity because is a montessori.
My only question for the specific school my son is scheduled for is whether it's already operating at a reduced capacity because is a montessori.
The Cooper Effect. For whatever reason on days of and leading to big announcements they seem to be more efficient in processing case data. I guess we will see what the case distribution is in today's report. Davie's graphs have done a good job showing how any one day's reported cases are aggregated from any number of days (including days well over a week).TheStorm said:
I figured that was probably the case on the Hospital reporting numbers but I knew that I could ask you and you would know for sure. Thanks for the answer.
In regards to Confirmed Cases as a % of Completed Tests (and I'm sure you remember that I've only been tracking the running averages) - the last time I had a running average this high was on June 29 (it went from 7.030% on Friday, June 26 to 7.163% on Monday, June 29) - and then it leveled back off immediately and has stayed pretty level overall since then until now (all of a sudden it just went from 7.069% on Friday, July 10 to 7.172% Monday, July 13).
1. It takes a lot to impact a running average that is almost four (4) months in the making at this point.
2. Why do these major spikes only occur when a major decision gets announced? I mean, it's like clockwork...
Any additional thoughts?
It isn't hard time the release of information when you are dealing with data that literally spans weeks. Am I saying they do this for sure? No. But in the past, it has appeared that they release data in a method that will drive a policy narrative.
I think each district should be able to do their own plan based on the conditions in the district. I see the need for uniform guidelines from the state, but there are just so many variables, and I don't think school in some rural county somewhere should be dictated by the numbers in Charlotte. I really don't think the science backs up not having kids in school, but aside from that, I don't know how people are going to make it work when both parents work, or single parents. Lots of tough decisions coming up for folks, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
Also - for those two weeks off, plenty of parents are going to be looking into alternative day care so instead of your children being with the same children 100% of the time at school, they'll be with different kids across all sorts of cohorts throughout the 3 week cycle.wilmwolf80 said:
I think each district should be able to do their own plan based on the conditions in the district. I see the need for uniform guidelines from the state, but there are just so many variables, and I don't think school in some rural county somewhere should be dictated by the numbers in Charlotte. I really don't think the science backs up not having kids in school, but aside from that, I don't know how people are going to make it work when both parents work, or single parents. Lots of tough decisions coming up for folks, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
Very true. Or for those that are at home, they'll be roaming the neighborhood in packs like they have been this whole time, in my neighborhood at least. My buddy's kids are currently in summer camp, but the wife doesn't want the kids in school at all in the fall, and he's beside himself trying to convince his wife that that doesn't make sense. Like I said, lots of tough decisions ahead for you folks with kids. I don't envy you.
Just a guy on the sunshine squad.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
The Gatekeeper.
Homer Dumbarse.
StateFan2001's favorite poster.
I'm an elective teacher in Wake County and can't begin to wrap my head around how I'm supposed to teach in-building all day and then be responsible for the other two groups of students who are learning remotely. Add in having to figure out safety precautions for having students in the building and needing to share materials...this is going to be a nightmare.
I honestly didn't even think about that, how are you supposed to plan for 1/3 of the class in school and then ensure the other 2/3's aren't missing out? How would it be possible to progress through the lesson plan?
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
I think people will find the following graph to be helpful when looking at the percent positive rate. The graph plots a calculated percent positive rate with a 7-day moving average trend lines applied (blue lines) versus the percent positive rate NCDHHS communicates daily with a 7-day moving average applied (orange lines). The calculated percent positive is obtained by dividing the Daily New Cases by the Daily New Tests (today's total test number minus yesterday's total test number). I have no idea how NCDHHS is calculating the percent positive they communicate daily and they have not provided any guidance (as far as I can find) regarding their calculation methodology.TheStorm said:
I figured that was probably the case on the Hospital reporting numbers but I knew that I could ask you and you would know for sure. Thanks for the answer.
In regards to Confirmed Cases as a % of Completed Tests (and I'm sure you remember that I've only been tracking the running averages) - the last time I had a running average this high was on June 29 (it went from 7.030% on Friday, June 26 to 7.163% on Monday, June 29) - and then it leveled back off immediately and has stayed pretty level overall since then until now (all of a sudden it just went from 7.069% on Friday, July 10 to 7.172% Monday, July 13).
1. It takes a lot to impact a running average that is almost four (4) months in the making at this point.
2. Why do these major spikes only occur when a major decision gets announced? I mean, it's like clockwork...
Any additional thoughts?
As you can see, the NCDHHS percent positive (orange lines) is starting to trend up slightly and it has averaged 10% for the past seven days. The Calculated percent positive is trending up a little more drastically and this increase started in the past three days. I did not see this trend when I examined the numbers late last week. The Calculated percent positive is averaging 8% for the past seven days.
Please note, I did not include the percent positive for yesterday, since NCDHHS has not provided a value for 7/13. The Calculated percent positive for 7/13 is 8.7%. One other thing to note - the NCDHHS percent positive jumped up significantly in mid-May, prior to the Memorial Day holiday. So the jump was likely not initially due to the Memorial Day holiday. The effects on cases would not have been seen until approximately 5 days after Memorial Day, so around 6/1.
(Edit Update: Graph edited to add lines to show Memorial Day holiday window more clearly)
Davie, did you notice as the days go by, they sometimes lower the previous days percent in this graph?
Look now, the last day that is at 10% before 7/12 is now 7/2. They stealth back edit this thing constantly.
Look now, the last day that is at 10% before 7/12 is now 7/2. They stealth back edit this thing constantly.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
I have not noticed this, so thanks for pointing it out. Since I have the original values, I will go back and see enter the new values and also see which days they updated. I wonder if they are updating as they update cases? Without knowing the NCDHHS methodology, it is hard to determine why they are going back and making adjustments. If they are adjusting percentages down, it the media are reporting the higher percentages and do not go back and correct it. Of course, I would not expect them to go back and try to explain what DHHS is doing.Wayland said:
Davie, did you notice as the days go by, they sometimes lower the previous days percent in this graph?
Look now, the last day that is at 10% before 7/12 is now 7/2. They stealth back edit this thing constantly.
Right. The current day is ALMOST ALWAYS 10%, but then it is almost immediately adjusted down the next day. I don't know why this is happening, but I feel their method of reporting this value has been seriously flawed.
So let's go with a solid 9% for the tests they are reporting... that means the rest of the tests that come in are around 4% positive.
Of course they don't identify what the number of cases or positives are that go into this calculation. But based on their own FAQ, they are calculating this percentage based on about 60% of the total tests.
Now I would assume the tests being run and used in this calculation are heavily skewed towards hospital or ED setting and tests done outside the immediate healthcare setting are being thrown out for this calculation.
I would also assume the tests being thrown out have a much lower percentage of positives, since when we just take the basic numerator over denominator for ALL tests, it is general closer to 7%. But DHHS claims 8-10% on any given day.
Let's make a quick assumption that 60% (NC EDDS) of the cases are coming back at the 9% positive rate. In order to get an overall positive rate of 7%, we would need the remaining 40% (Other Labs not EDSS) cases to be about 4% positive.
So let's go with a solid 9% for the tests they are reporting... that means the rest of the tests that come in are around 4% positive.
Of course they don't identify what the number of cases or positives are that go into this calculation. But based on their own FAQ, they are calculating this percentage based on about 60% of the total tests.
Now I would assume the tests being run and used in this calculation are heavily skewed towards hospital or ED setting and tests done outside the immediate healthcare setting are being thrown out for this calculation.
I would also assume the tests being thrown out have a much lower percentage of positives, since when we just take the basic numerator over denominator for ALL tests, it is general closer to 7%. But DHHS claims 8-10% on any given day.
Let's make a quick assumption that 60% (NC EDDS) of the cases are coming back at the 9% positive rate. In order to get an overall positive rate of 7%, we would need the remaining 40% (Other Labs not EDSS) cases to be about 4% positive.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Here's a graph showing the original percent positive reported and the adjusted percent positive values. The current graph on the NCDHHS website only goes back to 6/12, so I could not go back any further. I will double-check my numbers later to make sure I did not key in any wrong numbers, since I put this together pretty quickly.Wayland said:
Right. The current day is ALMOST ALWAYS 10%, but then it is almost immediately adjusted down the next day. I don't know why this is happening, but I feel their method of reporting this value has been seriously flawed.
So let's go with a solid 9% for the tests they are reporting... that means the rest of the tests that come in are around 4% positive.
Of course they don't identify what the number of cases or positives are that go into this calculation. But based on their own FAQ, they are calculating this percentage based on about 60% of the total tests.
Now I would assume the tests being run and used in this calculation are heavily skewed towards hospital or ED setting and tests done outside the immediate healthcare setting are being thrown out for this calculation.
I would also assume the tests being thrown out have a much lower percentage of positives, since when we just take the basic numerator over denominator for ALL tests, it is general closer to 7%. But DHHS claims 8-10% on any given day.
Let's make a quick assumption that 60% (NC EDDS) of the cases are coming back at the 9% positive rate. In order to get an overall positive rate of 7%, we would need the remaining 40% (Other Labs not EDSS) cases to be about 4% positive.
7/14/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/13/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/12/2020 Morning DHHS updateWayland said:7/11/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/10/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/9/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/8/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/7/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/6/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/5/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/4/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/3/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/2/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Wayland said:7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)Quote:
6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)
NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1366* deaths
1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.
DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.
NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)
212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1376* deaths
1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
NC Cases
68,142
NC Deaths
1391
Currently Hospitalized
912 <- 93% reporting (was 901 at 86% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
971,120
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
826 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
149 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
416 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
975 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1400* deaths
1629 positive cases over 28,882 new tests. 5.6% positive rate.
After what Cohen said last night I was worried about hospitalizations, but still pretty stable. One of the highest reporting percent EVER and still staying stable!
Date of Death for today's adds: 6/30(10), 6/28, 6/26, 6/19, 6/15, 6/13, 6/5(2) and one missing.
Hopefully all these outbreaks are just catching staff and before they get bad.
Nothing out of the ordinary in the location data. Just happened to be a day where all the major players had deaths reported the same day (Meck, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth). Have to make sure to get it in before the weekend.
NC Cases
70,241
NC Deaths
1392
Currently Hospitalized
951 <- 89% reporting (was 912 at 93% yesterday) Higher#, Lower# Big jump
Completed Tests
999,293
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
821 Deaths are now Congregate (-5)
152 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
973 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (-2)
220 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+8)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1417* deaths
2099 positive cases over 28,173 new tests. 7.5% positive rate.
Huge jump in cases and hospitalizations. Would love to have more details on this since surveillance is showing less admits last week. Longer stays?
I can't make sense out of today's deaths. -5 Congregate and +1 overall. Really should identify a data correction.
All kinds of oddness in this holiday data dump. I think I found one of the issues with data. Buncombe lost 9 deaths from their count from yesterday. That should be addressed if you are going to make a change like that. I expect that was user error and those 9 plus at least 1 more will get added back in soon.
Some of the case highlights.
Durham had its first day of over 100 reported cases at 110.
Johnston 71
Gaston 82 cases
Meck 430
New Hanover 81
Wake 198
NC Cases
71,654
NC Deaths
1395
Currently Hospitalized
945 <- 86% reporting (was 951 at 89% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,018,296
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
154 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
976 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)
230 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1420* deaths
1413 positive cases over 19003 new tests. 7.4% positive rate.
So 18 congregate outbreaks the last 2 days. That number is skyrocketing. Not bad if they are catching staff early, let's hope.
Another weird day with deaths.
Deaths were DELETED on 7/4:
5/31, 6/19, 6/30
Deaths were ADDED on 7/4:
6/28, 6/29, 7/2(4)
County downloadable data hasn't been added yet, so I can't find the deltas.
On a fun because media likes to spout random day stats. This is actually the lowest number of reported cases on a Saturday in a month! (Not that it is helpful)
NC Cases
72,983
NC Deaths
1396
Currently Hospitalized
949 <- 78% reporting (was 945 at 86% yesterday) Expect a jump early next week.
Completed Tests
1,036,838
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+1 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
419 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+1)
231 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1425* deaths
1329 positive cases over 18542 new tests. 7.2% positive rate.
County level data download never posted yesterday, so will have to pick that back up as it gets cleaned up next week.
Not much to look at today. Hospitalizations up a little with a lower reporting percent. Something to keep an eye on.
I expect a huge case dump early next week. It looks like the state is almost a full week behind on most of its case reporting. So remember as the case data starts to come out the next few days that it is a week lagged.
I also expect a death correction next week to get us back in line with the ~15 deaths a day we have been running on.
County data posted. Deaths removed yesterday were from Guilford, Robeson, and Wilson.
NC Cases
74,529
NC Deaths
1398
Currently Hospitalized
982 <- 81% reporting (was 949 at 78% yesterday) New High.
Completed Tests
1,051,846
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
822 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
155 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+2 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
421 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
977 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+0)
233 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1426* deaths
1546 positive cases over 15,008 new tests. 10.3% positive rate.
Expect a bit of a death correction the next 2 days.
Hospitalizations new high. WE NEED MORE INFO HERE.
Positive rate is high, this is likely because of which tests are being reported. Been trending high on the post weekend low reporting days, will dip again when all the tests come in.
NC Cases
75,875
NC Deaths
1420
Currently Hospitalized
989 <- 89% reporting (was 982 at 81% yesterday) New high, but higher percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,071,290
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
828 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
161 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
431 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
989 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)
239 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1438* deaths
1346 positive cases over 19444 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
I still feel like case data is really lagging at this point and we are a week behind on a lot, maybe Davie has more insight into this.
Dates of Deaths reported today.
6/7, 6/11, 6/17, 6/20, 6/23. 6/25, 6/26, 6/30, 7/1(2), 7/3(4), 7/4(5), 7/5(2), 7/6.
Most likely sources of lagged deaths Robeson 4, Wilson 4, Wake 3.
I expect tomorrow's catch up day, to give us a much clearer picture as to where we are on this.
NC Cases
77,310
NC Deaths
1441
Currently Hospitalized
994 <- 89% reporting (was 989 at 89% yesterday) New high, same percent reported.
Completed Tests
1,096,682
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
835 Deaths are now Congregate (+7)
165 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+21 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
441 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
1000 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+11)
244 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1459* deaths
1435 positive cases over 25392 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
I know it is silly, but this is the 100th day in a row that I have posted a DHHS update. I think they should just pay me at this point.
New high hospitalizations. When we hit 1000 WRAL will probably throw a party.
Cases still not high, still waiting the case dump. Deaths still in range for midweek dump. Now to dig into the data. Most of the deaths fill in this week. There are 4 or so what were greater than 2 weeks old or not accounted for.
Side note: The 7 day rolling average of deaths by date of reporting (NOT date of death) is the lowest since April 16.
NC Cases
79,349
NC Deaths
1461
Currently Hospitalized
1034 <- 86% reporting (was 994 at 89% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,121,811
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
844 Deaths are now Congregate (+9)
171 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
446 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
1015 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+15)
250 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1468* deaths
2039 positive cases over 25129 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
And there is the Thursday Cooper effect with the case backlog. Remember this is aggregated and in many cases over a week old data.
Re: Hospitalizations. Will be interesting to see CLI this afternoon.
Deaths by Date of Death Reported Today:
6/1, 6/4, 6/14, 6/19, 6/21, 6/25(2), 6/29(2), 7/1(2), 7/2, 7/3, 7/4, 7/6, 7/7(6), 7/8(2)
6/23 had a death removed.
Good bit of backlog in the deaths today with almost half of them coming in June.
NC Cases
81,331
NC Deaths
1479
Currently Hospitalized
1046 <- 92% reporting (was 1034 at 86% yesterday) New High, but high reporting number
Completed Tests
1,150,612
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
850 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
175 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+4)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
454 Deaths assumed General Population (+8)
1025 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+10)
252 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1493* deaths
1982 positive cases over 28801 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.
Deaths Reported Today By Date of Death:
7/9, 7/8(2), 7/7(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 6/27(2), 6/26, 6/24, and 5/25
(and two deaths unaccounted for)
Wake has had a pretty bad week for deaths.
NC Cases
83,795
NC Deaths
1499
Currently Hospitalized
1093 <- 88% reporting (was 1046 at 92% yesterday) New high number. Lower %.
Completed Tests
1,176,058
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+5)
176 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
468 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
1031 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+6)
262 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1507* deaths
2462 positive cases over 25446 new tests. 9.7% positive rate.
Super concerning trends in hospitalizations. Regional and severity breakdowns need to be provided.
Deaths reported today by Date of Death:
7/10, 7/9(3), 7/8(3), 7/6(3), 7/5(3), 7/4, 7/3, 7/2, 6/30, 6/25(2), 5/31 and 5/22
Might be starting to see a shift away from LTC deaths a little.
Wake added 6 deaths today and is up to 66 deaths on DHHS (county site still shows 61 as of this morning), but as I mentioned the other day, Wake definitely seeing a surge there with at least twice as many deaths so far in July than all of June.
Just eyeballing some of the county cases by date collected. Cases feel like a little bit of catch up (some of last weeks cases that were lagging along with more cases this week being reported quicker). Could just be me, we will have to see what happens with this week fills out. Maybe plateauing?
NC Cases
85,701
NC Deaths
1503
Currently Hospitalized
1070 <- 84% reporting (was 1093 at 88% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,199,575
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
181 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
467 Deaths assumed General Population (-1)
1036 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1523* deaths
1908 positive cases over 23517 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.
Weird things with death numbers today. Numbers are all shifted around, 1 less GenPop, + 5 Unknown, and it looked like some deaths from within Congregate actually shifted source. Strange.
Will keep looking into county and day of death and post when done.
Dates of Death ADDED Today:
7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5, 626
Dates of Death REMOVED Today:
6/19, 5/31
County level even STRANGER:
Counties with Deaths ADDED Today
Forsyth(1), Orange(1), Union (1), Wake (5), Wilkes (1)
Counties with Deaths REMOVED Today
Guilford(-2), Hoke (-1), New Hanover (-1), Robeson (-1)
That is now 22 deaths for Wake reported in the last 6 days. Wake has reported 18 deaths so far with a date of death in July. Worst two weeks for fatalities in Wake are the last 2 weeks.
Also odd. Only about 30% of cases reported today contained the ethnicity demographic information that is historically available in just under two thirds of all cases.
NC Cases
87,528
NC Deaths
1510
Currently Hospitalized
1040 <- 80% reporting (was 1070 at 84% yesterday)
Completed Tests
1,220,486
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
855 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
186 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+7 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
469 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
1041 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)
263 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1533* deaths
1827 positive cases over 20911 new tests. 8.7% positive rate.
Deaths today appear to be from Meck(4), Durham(2), and Surry
Date of Deaths added today: 7/12, 7/11(3), 7/10, 7/5(2), 7/4
One death was changed from missing to actual date.
NC Cases
89,484
NC Deaths
1552
Currently Hospitalized
1109 <- 91% reporting (was 1040 at 80% yesterday) New High
Completed Tests
1,254,846
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
874 Deaths are now Congregate (+19)
189 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+3)
+42 Deaths Overall since yesterday.
489 Deaths assumed General Population (+20)
1063 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)
264 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WRAL is at 1551* deaths
1956 positive cases over 34360 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.
34360 new tests but DHHS claims only 23623 were completed today.
Looks like DHHS caught up on ALL their deaths today. Going to take me a while to sort this out because the graph doesn't look like too much changed.
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
I have updated the graph showing the Calculated Percent Positive versus the NCDHHS Calculated Percent Positive to reflect the NCDHHS revised numbers. I hope this is all clear to everyone. The one thing that is still clear is something triggered a jump in the percent positive, prior to the Memorial Day holiday.
OK. Deaths reported today. All time high is a doozy. I guess since the couldn't get the cases to catch up they would set the accounts on the death total.
26 deaths are from the last week;
7/13(4), 7/12(7), 7/11(7), 7/10(7), 7/9
5 are from two weeks ago:
7/6, 7/5, 7/4, 6/29, 6/28
AND 11 are from over a month ago.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Location of Deaths
Brunswick 2, Buncombe 9, Chatham 1, Cleveland 1, Cumberland 2, Davidson 1, Durham 1, Franklin 1, Granville 1, Guilford 5, Henderson 1, Hertford 1, Martin 1, Mitchell 1, New Hanover 1, Pamlico 1, Randolph 1, Rutherford 1, Union 1, Wake 5, Wayne 2, Wilson 2.
It looks like all those Buncombe deaths that were removed got added back?
26 deaths are from the last week;
7/13(4), 7/12(7), 7/11(7), 7/10(7), 7/9
5 are from two weeks ago:
7/6, 7/5, 7/4, 6/29, 6/28
AND 11 are from over a month ago.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Location of Deaths
Brunswick 2, Buncombe 9, Chatham 1, Cleveland 1, Cumberland 2, Davidson 1, Durham 1, Franklin 1, Granville 1, Guilford 5, Henderson 1, Hertford 1, Martin 1, Mitchell 1, New Hanover 1, Pamlico 1, Randolph 1, Rutherford 1, Union 1, Wake 5, Wayne 2, Wilson 2.
It looks like all those Buncombe deaths that were removed got added back?
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Here the graph showing the date of death for the 42 deaths announced by NCDHHS today.
Despite the large clean-up day for deaths, the trends based on actual date of death are still trending down. I believe I will be using this graph a lot today to correct erroneous tweets claiming "deaths are soaring out of control."
Despite the large clean-up day for deaths, the trends based on actual date of death are still trending down. I believe I will be using this graph a lot today to correct erroneous tweets claiming "deaths are soaring out of control."
Are there any data regarding the ages of those tested, as well as the ages of those positive?
Like I said, if you can't get hyped for the Carolina game, why are you here?
-Earl Wolff-
-Earl Wolff-
Joined:
Feb 8, 2018
Posts:
4,329
User Profile
Private Message
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
No. NCDHHS does not provide any date information on testing. They only provide date ranges for Cases and Deaths.bigeric said:
Are there any data regarding the ages of those tested, as well as the ages of those positive?
bigeric said:
Are there any data regarding the ages of those tested, as well as the ages of those positive?
I can do that for Guilford county. Give me a little time and I'll put get you some numbers. I know it is a local snap shot but you may find it interesting.
I reviewed my records and it looks like it is in fact the Buncombe deaths.Wayland said:
OK. Deaths reported today. All time high is a doozy. I guess since the couldn't get the cases to catch up they would set the accounts on the death total.
26 deaths are from the last week;
7/13(4), 7/12(7), 7/11(7), 7/10(7), 7/9
5 are from two weeks ago:
7/6, 7/5, 7/4, 6/29, 6/28
AND 11 are from over a month ago.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Location of Deaths
Brunswick 2, Buncombe 9, Chatham 1, Cleveland 1, Cumberland 2, Davidson 1, Durham 1, Franklin 1, Granville 1, Guilford 5, Henderson 1, Hertford 1, Martin 1, Mitchell 1, New Hanover 1, Pamlico 1, Randolph 1, Rutherford 1, Union 1, Wake 5, Wayne 2, Wilson 2.
It looks like all those Buncombe deaths that were removed got added back?
Here are the older than a months deaths added today.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Here are the Buncombe deaths removed on 7/3
6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Wayland said:I reviewed my records and it looks like it is in fact the Buncombe deaths.Wayland said:
OK. Deaths reported today. All time high is a doozy. I guess since the couldn't get the cases to catch up they would set the accounts on the death total.
26 deaths are from the last week;
7/13(4), 7/12(7), 7/11(7), 7/10(7), 7/9
5 are from two weeks ago:
7/6, 7/5, 7/4, 6/29, 6/28
AND 11 are from over a month ago.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Location of Deaths
Brunswick 2, Buncombe 9, Chatham 1, Cleveland 1, Cumberland 2, Davidson 1, Durham 1, Franklin 1, Granville 1, Guilford 5, Henderson 1, Hertford 1, Martin 1, Mitchell 1, New Hanover 1, Pamlico 1, Randolph 1, Rutherford 1, Union 1, Wake 5, Wayne 2, Wilson 2.
It looks like all those Buncombe deaths that were removed got added back?
Here are the older than a months deaths added today.
6/14, 6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/26, 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
Here are the Buncombe deaths removed on 7/3
6/8, 5/28(2), 5/27(2), 5/23(2), 5/20, 5/16
How am I supposed to look at this data as anything but manipulation based on the need to frame a narrative?
Featured Stories
See All
Six Takeaways From the Wolfpack's Military Bowl Loss
by Rob McLamb
9:58
12h ago
3.7k
VIDEO + QUOTES: Doeren, Bailey Discuss Military Bowl Loss
by Daniel Wilson
BOX SCORE: East Carolina 26, NC State 21
by James Henderson
OUR FINAL TAKE: NC State vs. East Carolina
by James Henderson
12:15
23h ago
738
IPS IN 5: Three Keys For NC State vs. East Carolina
by James Henderson