Wayland said:

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Wake Forest Baptist Health has updated their antibody findings:

Updated 6/30/2020

• Current study enrollment:18,456
• Completed daily symptom logs: 634,123
• Positive antibody tests (percentage): 12-14%

Again, they appear to heavily lean on IgM numbers as opposed to IgG, and I don't know how that compares to other studies. Although they measure both, I was under the assumption that most were testing IgG. This is up from 8-10% last week (or maybe 2 weeks ago?)

Not to mention new findings on T-Cells.

Nonetheless, the higher the better!

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Alex Berensen tweeted about these latest results earlier tonight. I commented back to his Tweet to point out the Republicans in the legislature had to fund the study, since the governor was dragging his feet.

I wonder if it is possible IgM is catching people who are still infected with the virus? My understanding is you may still be infected if IgM is present in the blood. From what I found on the web, IgG usually forms seven to 10 days after infection, so testing for IgM would seem to cast a broader net?

GuerrillaPack said:

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Just saw this. My how easily we forget...

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Forget what?

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

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NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

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804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
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WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

DHHS is up to almost 1000 more cases than Meck says they have. It was one thing when it was hovering around 300. But someone needs to explain that gap at this point.

Media will panic over the 908 number as being 'SECOND HIGHEST HOSPITALIZATIONS!!" But it is still less than a week ago and showing remarkable stability.

That is 12 congregate outbreaks in the last 2 days!

Deaths added today by date of death:
6/1, 6/5, 6/15, 6/18, 6/25(2), 6/26(3), 6/27(4), 6/29(5)

Bonus Data (since death location has been reported as a separate category 4/19/2020)
Average "Reported" Deaths per day By Location

April (since 4/19)
Congregate 12.75
Unknown 1.58
General 3.5
Total 17.8

May
Congregate 10.96
Unknown 1.10
General 4.26
Total 16.32

June
Congregate 8.4
Unknown 2.5
General 4.27
Total 15.17

Even with reporting lag deaths going down. Congregate dropping a lot (although Unknown takes a jump). General been stable over two months.

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What a strange day of data yesterday was...

1186 Newly Confirmed Cases / 23,728 Newly Completed Tests = 5.00%

Deaths as a Percentage of Completed Tests & Confirmed Cases BOTH CONTINUE TO PLUMMET...

TO DATE THE ENTIRE STATE only has 393 Deaths that they feel confident enough about to "assume" that they can be classified as GENERAL POPULATION.

*Wondering exactly how the mask mandate is helping protect those in Congregate Settings from the General Population (ie. "us")?

But they manage to "pump up" the hospitalizations number again, nonetheless...

What exactly am I missing here?

Packchem91 said:

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packgrad said:

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Where's the science that explains your fixation on bars?

Also, the naivete to think response isn't political, or based on an upcoming election, is astounding.

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I have no fixation -- simply responding to what you and Storm have made the center of your arguments...that the continued closing of bars is somehow the epicenter of stupidity. I simply disagree.

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Wrong again. Storm specifically ranted about restaurants and gyms because so many of them are being permanently put out of business left and right across the state... *now you even have activists calling in to report that they ate last night at restaurant "x" and that they have been exposed to Coronavirus... an entire restaurant group in Wilmington (5-6 units spread around in different markets) had to close again last week (random calls on all their locations, but what are they supposed to do?)... domestic terrorism at it's finest.

In regards to bars, what makes it any different than a brewery - except for the fact, that many breweries welcome children and pets? (anything ass backwards about that?)

Most breweries serve food. Breweries are also for the most part much bigger and roomier than bars.

When I think of some of my favorite bars, I definitely don't think it's a good idea for them to be open yet.

Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Most breweries serve food. Breweries are also for the most part much bigger and roomier than bars.

When I think of some of my favorite bars, I definitely don't think it's a good idea for them to be open yet.

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Some breweries serve food would have been a more accurate response. Many down here do not have a kitchen and do not serve their own food.

TheStorm said:

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Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Most breweries serve food. Breweries are also for the most part much bigger and roomier than bars.

When I think of some of my favorite bars, I definitely don't think it's a good idea for them to be open yet.

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Some breweries serve food would have been a more accurate response. Many down here do not have a kitchen and do not serve their own food.

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Yeah you're right, I was factoring in food trucks they bring in.

Bars are gonna be FINE, boys. When this over and they're friggin open we're ALL gonna go get drunk...

Mormad said:

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Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Mormad said:

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Everybody has to have an agenda. Had a local restaurant owner tell me they were likely not to make it because their dining area is small so can't have many patrons in house, but so many "people are angry that we opened the dining area" that their take out business declined greatly. What is wrong with people? I swear people just want to be angry about something. Does it make people feel better to constantly disagree and make silly irrational choices because of it???

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The situation is pretty bleak for locally owned restaurants. We're doing about 30% of normal business and I don't think it's going to get much better this year. Staff doesn't really want to come back to work yet either, and I can't really blame them.

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My dad owned Jerry's grill on east Whitaker mill in Raleigh for 40 yrs (all you that didn't give it a try really missed out, my mom made so much of it homemade it was ridiculous), and he barely survived the Carter presidency, but he'd have NEVER survived this crap. Really tough business, even when things are clicking. Good luck to you.

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Thanks. We have good relationships with our landlords, so they're working with us. This is pretty much worse case business wise because of no sports. For me personally too, as a HUGE sports fan, it's brutal. I am super thankful though that kids aren't affected as much. That's obviously the most important thing.

Wayland said:

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My kid is at overnight summer camp this week. Although the camp session he was supposed to go to was cancelled, the camp added additional sessions at another facility in order to spread the kids out.

I couldn't be happier. He seems to be having a great time (they post pics online these days). It is exactly what kids need. To be out of the house having a good time, getting away from all this BS.

I was a little nervous to send him. But after seeing the kid at camp and smiling and having fun, it crushed me to think of all the damage that is being done to kids right now and how bad it will continue to be if they screw up school next year.

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So what do you think they should do with schools in the fall? Our county sent out a survey of:
1) one week on, one week off (with virtual learning the "off week")
2) two weeks on, two weeks off (with virtual learning the "off weeks")
3) one group in the AM, one group in the afternoon (this seems impossible to me)
4) One other option that escapes me....maybe it was an A-day, B-day scenario where kids go 3 days one week, 2 days the next, with virtual learning on the off days

*Bigger impact to kids -- the 43mm (or whatever it is now) people who've filed unemployment. And I think that # gets worse before it gets better. Companies will take a long time to recover, or will lay folks off as part of the recovery to reduce expenses. Lots of families never touched by Covid that will be impacted horribly.

What motivation do teachers have for wanting to return to in-class setting?

wilmwolf80 said:

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Will all of the teachers agree to teach? It's generally an all or nothing proposition due to the union. Otherwise, there isn't really any good scientific reason that I've seen to keep kids from going to school. I think it's super important for them to get back, not just for the sake of the kids development, but also because until the kids are back in school, you will have parents that are unable to work. A waitress, single mother, probably isn't going to be able to go back to her restaurant job as long as her kids require home schooling. They need to think outside the box, explore every avenue for having kids back in school in the fall, but based on the options currently being presented by the state, I don't have much confidence in that happening. Most of the social media chatter I've seen has been along the lines of "we have to get the numbers down so kids can go back in the fall", which IMO is a misguided way of thinking, and most likely means they won't be back in the fall.

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But yet daycares are just humming along...

Mormad said:

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GuerrillaPack said:

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Just saw this. My how easily we forget...

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Forget what?

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That masks are NOT effective at preventing people from catching the virus

JasonNCSU said:

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The vast majority of teachers in my social circle (4 in the family, and several more of their friends) are anxious to get back in the classroom, especially those that teach younger kids... They tell me its nearly impossible to teach 5-7 year olds remotely... Their motivation is the same as why they became teachers, to teach kids.

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They are better people than me!

Haha I wouldn't be in a rush to have to wake up that early again every day. But then again many teachers have that passion for teaching kids and have gotten used to that routine. Good on them and I hope they are able to get back into school this fall

JasonNCSU said:

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The vast majority of teachers in my social circle (4 in the family, and several more of their friends) are anxious to get back in the classroom, especially those that teach younger kids... They tell me its nearly impossible to teach 5-7 year olds remotely... Their motivation is the same as why they became teachers, to teach kids.

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I appreciate those teachers and all they do for the kids.

I worry about those who have been infected by fear and those few that want to take advantage of the situation and (not) work from home, preventing schools from moving forward.

Wayland said:

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Schools should be in session and should never have been cancelled. Already have all kinds of European experiences to draw on.

If you want to do some sort of alternate day scheduling for high school for the fall semester maybe.

Elementary and middle schools should return as normal. Distance learning should be discouraged because no learning going on at a distance.


I am also for making whatever accommodations we need to make for teachers with legitimate risk factors/health concerns. We should use resources to protect those most at risk.

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Yeah, no way to effectively teach a group of elementary kids remotely. Maybe 1-1 or small groups, but not a large group. And that doesn't even take into account lower income schools where some kids may not even have home access.

Pfizer releases early data on vaccine, and its positive news.

Local fear headline "New Hanover County's positive Covid 19 case count has nearly doubled in 11 days". Sigh.

Mormad said:

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Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Mormad said:

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Everybody has to have an agenda. Had a local restaurant owner tell me they were likely not to make it because their dining area is small so can't have many patrons in house, but so many "people are angry that we opened the dining area" that their take out business declined greatly. What is wrong with people? I swear people just want to be angry about something. Does it make people feel better to constantly disagree and make silly irrational choices because of it???

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The situation is pretty bleak for locally owned restaurants. We're doing about 30% of normal business and I don't think it's going to get much better this year. Staff doesn't really want to come back to work yet either, and I can't really blame them.

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My dad owned Jerry's grill on east Whitaker mill in Raleigh for 40 yrs (all you that didn't give it a try really missed out, my mom made so much of it homemade it was ridiculous), and he barely survived the Carter presidency, but he'd have NEVER survived this crap. Really tough business, even when things are clicking. Good luck to you.

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Your Dad owned Jerry's Grill ? What a small world. Many years ago , as my Dad was getting ready to retire from the working for the State, he got into the pay phone business to keep him busy and make a little income. He had the pay phone at Jerry's for many years. I would help him and remember going there many times over those years. And you are right , as I recall the food was very, very good !!

Tootie4Pack said:

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Mormad said:

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My dad owned Jerry's grill on east Whitaker mill in Raleigh for 40 yrs (all you that didn't give it a try really missed out, my mom made so much of it homemade it was ridiculous), and he barely survived the Carter presidency, but he'd have NEVER survived this crap. Really tough business, even when things are clicking. Good luck to you.

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Your Dad owned Jerry's Grill ? What a small world. Many years ago , as my Dad was getting ready to retire from the working for the State, he got into the pay phone business to keep him busy and make a little income. He had the pay phone at Jerry's for many years. I would help him and remember going there many times over those years. And you are right , as I recall the food was very, very good !!

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One of the best burgers in Raleigh! Love that place and the heritage your mom and dad created!

Was your dad the owner up until it was sold in the last couple of years, or was there another ownership change before that?

Wayland said:

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My kid is at overnight summer camp this week. Although the camp session he was supposed to go to was cancelled, the camp added additional sessions at another facility in order to spread the kids out.

I couldn't be happier. He seems to be having a great time (they post pics online these days). It is exactly what kids need. To be out of the house having a good time, getting away from all this BS.

I was a little nervous to send him. But after seeing the kid at camp and smiling and having fun, it crushed me to think of all the damage that is being done to kids right now and how bad it will continue to be if they screw up school next year.

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My kids have been back in daycare since just after Memorial Day and it's been a lifesaver for all of us.

Edit. Haha. Did not mean to post this here. Oops.

Quote:

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

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7/1/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
66,513
NC Deaths
1373
Currently Hospitalized
901 <- 86% reporting (was 908 at 90% yesterday) Lower#, Lower%. Still stable
Completed Tests
942,238

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819 Deaths are now Congregate (+15)
147 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+30 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

407 Deaths assumed General Population (+14)
966 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

212 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1376* deaths

1843 positive cases over 32,205 new tests. 5.7% positive rate.

Highest case day.... BUT
DHHS says they only added 17,660 completed tests, but the actual delta is 32,205 since yesterday. Some fishy stuff going on with pushing cases around on a day Cooper is to talk. That or they had a normal reporting wave going on that would peak on Fridays. For some reason that has changed and we now have this Wednesday spike. Either way cases up. Looking over my past updates and then seeing that DHHS is now reporting for those days, they are doing a significant amount of backdating on their completed tests chart which is why some of the data is way off.

Of the deaths reported today. 21 fill in data spread over the last week.

The following dates more than 2 weeks ago had deaths added:
6/13, 6/12, 6/9, 6/8, 6/6, 6/3 AND 5/14. Two deaths also either occurred prior to 5/7 or were not charted.

I'll guess most of the backlog was Cabarrus (5 deaths) and Johnston (3 deaths) since they were the only counties reporting more than 2. Although Granville, Pasquotank, Scotland, and Wayne each reported 2 deaths and they are all typically lower number counties.

Cases nothing that unusual. Medium counties numbers were just a tick higher than normal, but Meck +364 and Wake +238 had some of their highest, if not highest reporting days.

Here is the current Date of Death graph.

At least they didn't say - FOR A WEDNESDAY!

I will be responding to the Tweet above with the following. For cases reported today, 1,264 are cases from samples taken Saturday or earlier and of these, 390 are from Wednesday or earlier. Below is the distribution of cases reported today from the dates the viral samples were taken.



For deaths reported today, below is a graph showing the dates of the actual death (Wayland - let me know if you see any mistakes in recordnig). Additionally, of the 30 deaths reported today, half are from Congregate facilities.

Your graph for deaths matches exactly what I have in my spreadsheet. (28 of the 30 added).

(minus the 2 deaths which I couldn't find a date for since I only go back to 5/7 and neither of us seem to have)

wilmwolf80 said:

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Local fear headline "New Hanover County's positive Covid 19 case count has nearly doubled in 11 days". Sigh.

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I mean they are nothing but a bunch of f'n liars at this point, pushing that narrative... 4 more months of this and similar bull**** await us... yay!

TheStorm said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Local fear headline "New Hanover County's positive Covid 19 case count has nearly doubled in 11 days". Sigh.

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I mean they are nothing but a bunch of f'n liars at this point, pushing that narrative... 4 more months of this and similar bull**** await us... yay!

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If it makes you feel any better the number of cases reported today in New Hanover was the lowest in over a week.

Sidenote: Sigh. Today is the day of the week that the CDC updates their excess death graphs. Of course NC still hasn't updated past the first week in May. Meh.