Daviewolf83 said:

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Wayland said:

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All this T-cell stuff is making me feel a little less crazy. It offers some explanation to the low AB % coming back from testing in some of the hardest hit areas. It always struck me as odd how much downward pressure there was at such a low population AB %.

And gives me hope that maybe I am not completely crazy that I could have had a T cell response despite being antibody-seronegative. Given I had repeat exposure to someone travelling back and forth from NY, and had a 'mild' two week respiratory illness in late Feb/early March. Which at the time, I never thought COVID because it still seemed to exist so far away. I know there are no guarantees and it could all be in my head still, but at least science says there is a chance I am not crazy (about this at least).

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Wayland - I think you may find this Twitter thread on T-Cells to be interesting. Seems to back up what you are thinking.

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Wow... that looks like science to me.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

"The coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to bring it under control, Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday."

PackBacker07 said:

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

"The coronavirus is spreading too rapidly and too broadly for the U.S. to bring it under control, Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday."

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LOL

No clue. But seems odd those states all have GOP governors and are treating bars the same as our Democratic governor. Why would GOP governors in red states "cave to political pressure?"

PackBacker07 said:

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For those saying the bar issue is political here in NC, why are Arizona, Texas, and Florida closing bars as well?

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Hopefully, they are closing them based on contact tracing that shows a direct link to recent cases and bars being opened. As Polimath pointed out in the article I posted, Texas also closed river rafting last week. While this seems like a strange activity to close, if there is contact tracing that points to river rafting being a super-spreader of the virus, it is an activity you would hopefully shutdown.

Hopefully, NC is looking at their contact tracing trends and if there are activities showing up that are more likely to cause viral spread, I would suggest they should be shut down until cases begin to decrease (at the same level of testing). This virus is going to be with us for a while and we are going to have to have systems in place that identify (through contact tracing) areas where spread is increasing or activities contributing to spread and selectively turning those activities off for a certain time period.

It is difficult for NC to point to keeping bars and gyms closed, since they have never been open and we do not have contact tracing that points to bars being a cause for the spread. Other states, such as Michigan, do have this more direct linkage. Personally, I am choosing to spend as little time as possible with other people in indoor establishments and I am only doing so when I can wear a mask the entire time I am in those establishments (such as in a grocery store). Personally, I would not go to a bar right now and I would only go to gym that had extensive allowances for social distancing and where everyone is required to wear a mask.

For example, my wife and I went to two restaurants this past weekend and both times, we decided to sit outside instead of inside. While the tables were spaced out appropriately inside, I personally decided to sit outside and remove my mask after ordering. I would not have been as comfortable doing the same while seated indoors the entire time. Until we ordered and when we got up to leave (even when outside) we kept our masks on. After eating and paying the bill, we put our masks back on and kept them on until we were in the car. Once we were in the car, we removed the masks and also used hand sanitizer.

PackBacker07 said:

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No clue. But seems odd those states all have GOP governors and are treating bars the same as our Democratic governor. Why would GOP governors in red states "cave to political pressure?"

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If you have no clue, then you don't know if they're treating them the same as our governor. They clearly haven't been treating them the same.

Back to an earlier post I made about protests potentially being one of the causes to the surge in cases, I present the following article from Newsweek:

"Increasing numbers of Houston residents have reportedly been diagnosed with COVID-19 after attending protests against the death of George Floyd."

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-protesters-begin-fall-ill-coronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

Wayland said:

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6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

---

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.

---

6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.

---

6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.

---

6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.

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6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.

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6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.

---

6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.

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6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.

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6/25/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
57,183
NC Deaths
1290 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1284 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
891 <- 90% reporting (was 906 at 88% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
811,278

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
787 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
130 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

373 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
917 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

200 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1317* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1009 positive cases over 19,993 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

Hospitalizations down. Cases lowest Thursday in weeks. Check out what I bolded from yesterday's post when I noticed the odd early week case spike.

Deaths were +22 on the Date of Death chart today (regardless of what they say). One death was removed from 5/8.
Deaths added today by date 5/15, 5/23, 5/27, 5/28, 6/3, 6/8, 6/13, 6/15(2), 6/16(2), 6/17, 6/19, 6/20, 6/22, 6/23(5), and 6/24(3).

So significant lagged data in the report today. It looks like they slide 6 of the old Robeson deaths and 4 old Meck deaths into today's data. Been waiting a long time for that Robeson reconciliation.

And notice yesterday when I remarked there were about an extra 260 cases that were missing a county from yesterday. Well guess what there are about about an extra 260 cases that are assigned a county over what was reported as a total. In the county level data 1254 cases were added even though the overall count was 1009. Yesterday they reported 1461 county cases but 1721 overall cases.

Data was juiced.

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6/26/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
58,818
NC Deaths
1303 (Date of Death Graph only lists 1297 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
892 <- 90% reporting (was 891 at 90% yesterday) Same reporting %. One addl # admits.
Completed Tests
836,725

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
793 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
132 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+19 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

378 Deaths assumed General Population (+5)
925 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

203 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1338* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1635 positive cases over 25447 new tests. 6.4% positive rate.

Date of death chart makes no sense today. 5 deaths were taken off of 6/15-6/16. One death was added as far back as 5/15. And 2 additional no dates of death were added. I just can't make any sense of the changes.

Nothing that unusual the county data. Deaths seem spread around (Columbus and Forsyth with 2)

Meck a +330 in cases, Wake +159. Durham +77, Forsyth +73, Guilford +59, Iredell +48, Johnston +44, New Hanover +44, Gaston +43.

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6/27/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
60,537
NC Deaths
1318 (Date of Death Graph only lists XXXX deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
888 <- 90% reporting (was 892 at 90% yesterday)
Completed Tests
855,131

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
142 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+10)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

381 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
937 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+12)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1347* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)

1719 positive cases over 18406 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

First time I remember chaining three days of 90% hospital reporting in a row. Somebody must be getting a talking to over reporting.

I feel DHHS has gone into full on 'F*** IT' mode over location of deaths. That is 33 Unknown deaths in the last 5 days.

Deaths added today by date: 5/25(2), 5/29, 6/3, 6/9, 6/11, 6/13, 6/14, 6/18, 6/19, 6/20(2), 6/23(2), 6/25(2), 6/26.

County level data is not downloadable right now, and certainly not going to move that over manually.

6 of the deaths reported today came from Duplin County and they have only had 1 death in the last 2 weeks. So I am going to say most of those old deaths are coming out of their backlog.

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6/28/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
62,142
NC Deaths
1322
Currently Hospitalized
890 <- 78% reporting (was 888 at 90% yesterday) Big drop in report %. Small increase in Hosp.
Completed Tests
871,905

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
795 Deaths are now Congregate (+0)
144 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+4 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

383 Deaths assumed General Population (+2)
939 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

204 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1353* deaths

1605 positive cases over 16774 new tests. 9.6% positive rate.

Boring day other than cases staying about the same/high. And hospitalizations staying about the same despite a drop in reporting. (Maybe some of that is small hospitals with low case loads not reporting? Maybe some actual increase?)

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6/29/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1325
Currently Hospitalized
843 <- 75% reporting (was 890 at 78% yesterday) Lower report % Lower Hosp #
Completed Tests
886,305

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
796 Deaths are now Congregate (+1)
145 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

384 Deaths assumed General Population (+1)
941 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+2)

210 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1360* deaths

1342 positive cases over 14400 new tests. 9.3% positive rate.

I remain convinced that hospitalizations have been stable for weeks and the change is all in whatever hospitals choose to report plus any additional non-critical cases being caught with pre-procedural testing.

Concerning that congregate facilities keep going up. Hope here is that they are catching staff cases early.

So since hospitalizations down (yes, it is likely reporting) and deaths low. Expect to see CASES CASES HIGHEST MONDAY EVER!!!! out of media.

Deaths added today. 6/27(2), 6/25(2), 6/12(1).

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6/30/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
63,484
NC Deaths
1343
Currently Hospitalized
908 <- 90% reporting (was 843 at 75% yesterday) Higher#, Higher%. Still stable
Completed Tests
910,033

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
804 Deaths are now Congregate (+8)
146 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+18 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

393 Deaths assumed General Population (+9)
950 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+9)

216 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1366* deaths

1186 positive cases over 23,728 new tests. 5.0% positive rate.

DHHS says they only added 18,676 completed tests, but the actual delta is 23,728 since yesterday.

DHHS is up to almost 1000 more cases than Meck says they have. It was one thing when it was hovering around 300. But someone needs to explain that gap at this point.

Media will panic over the 908 number as being 'SECOND HIGHEST HOSPITALIZATIONS!!" But it is still less than a week ago and showing remarkable stability.

That is 12 congregate outbreaks in the last 2 days!

Deaths added today by date of death:
6/1, 6/5, 6/15, 6/18, 6/25(2), 6/26(3), 6/27(4), 6/29(5)

Bonus Data (since death location has been reported as a separate category 4/19/2020)
Average "Reported" Deaths per day By Location

April (since 4/19)
Congregate 12.75
Unknown 1.58
General 3.5
Total 17.8

May
Congregate 10.96
Unknown 1.10
General 4.26
Total 16.32

June
Congregate 8.4
Unknown 2.5
General 4.27
Total 15.17

Even with reporting lag deaths going down. Congregate dropping a lot (although Unknown takes a jump). General been stable over two months.

NM

Did you click on the tweet? It has a larger picture with both people wearing a covering to show that it greatly reduces spread.

No, I didn't. If that's the case then I agree. But I've seen similar things posted with similar analogies. I just worry about a false sense of security that wearing a mask is going to keep you from contracting the virus.

wilmwolf80 said:

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A lot of what is closed and what isn't comes down to pressure from media and social media. If bars are open, and a state sees an increase, then the bars get blamed and people start crowing about it until they get shut down. Whether there is any actual proof that the outbreaks come from bars or not. Same thing happened with the beaches here early on. They were initially open, and people crowded the beaches and were having parties on the islands, and it ended up on the news and that forced their hand on closures. I'm not saying whether or not bars or beaches or anything should or shouldn't be opened, but a lot of these decisions are being made based on public sentiment, not necessarily science. Reasonable people can see that there's no difference in people getting drunk in a bar and people getting drunk at a brewery, or between people hanging out outside at the beach versus hanging out outside at a park, and that's where the questions come in about what is open and why.

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Now I think there is validity to that. We see bad behavior in bars on TV played out (from a Covid prevention perspective) and that has to impact decision makers. Just like in Charlotte when on a nice early spring w/e, a group of 10 or so were out playing volleyball in a park, and the video went viral of these horrible folks, and that Monday, parks were closed. Images matter.

Now...how you differentiate the difference in behavior in a standalone bar and one in a restaurant....agreed, no way to do that. The images in the N&O of all those folks in DT Raleigh having a big social event on the outdoor bar of a restaurant....that probably hurt the decision on opening standalone bars.

Daviewolf83 said:

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Back to an earlier post I made about protests potentially being one of the causes to the surge in cases, I present the following article from Newsweek:

"Increasing numbers of Houston residents have reportedly been diagnosed with COVID-19 after attending protests against the death of George Floyd."

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-protesters-begin-fall-ill-coronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

---

Houston was the one I was thinking of -- CBS news was there last week all over the huge increase in hospitalizations and about to become the new epicenter. They showed images of young people out and about enjoying life, bar scenes, etc.....and talked about Texas being open w/o pretty much restrictions.

Yet...not once did they mention that Houston was also one of the major cities of protests, and then long lines to celebrate the life of G Floyd's funeral. I mean....those had to make a difference.
So while I can sit here and fuss about bars.....it is mind-numbingly irritating to hear MSM fall all over themselves to point to other reasons when there is an elephant in the room.

**I do wonder why MPLS has not seen a huge increase. I think they'd been pretty much open, that downtown area has huge bar scenes, and they were the epicenter of protests. Yet I don't think MN or MPLS are on any big spikes?
Maybe the tradeoff was people who would have gone out to those places in MPLS didn't....so there was an offset?

PackBacker07 said:

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More "science" from Fauci.

10.1001/jama.2020.11623

Sorry, it's a link to an article that I'm quite sure will lead to some interesting discussion.

Mormad said:

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10.1001/jama.2020.11623

Sorry, it's a link to an article that I'm quite sure will lead to some interesting discussion.

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Is this the article?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767950

Completely agree

wilmwolf80 said:

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Why does it matter if I agree with it if I'm complying?

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I wasn't being critical, I was just curious.

It's always interesting to hear how people would handle tough issues if they were the ones making decisions about policy.

Wayland said:

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Mormad said:

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10.1001/jama.2020.11623

Sorry, it's a link to an article that I'm quite sure will lead to some interesting discussion.

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Is this the article?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767950

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Yes. As usual, thank you.

Wayland said:

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Hey, three and a half months into the pandemic NC announces testing for all LTC facilities. Good job getting right on that.

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And as those numbers roll into our State counts, expect to see more alarm raising...

Civilized said:

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wilmwolf80 said:

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Why does it matter if I agree with it if I'm complying?

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I wasn't being critical, I was just curious.

It's always interesting to hear how people would handle tough issues if they were the ones making decisions about policy.

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If you just want my unfiltered personal opinion. I don't disagree with it on merit necessarily, though I do have misgivings about it because I see that wearing masks causes people to have a false sense of security and disregard social distancing, but I do disagree with the implementation of it. I feel that like all of the directives, it lacks definition,and leaves too much to interpretation. If you are going to require masks indoors, just require masks indoors. I also feel that if you think there is a solid scientific basis for requiring masks, then why wasn't that implemented at the start of Phase 2? That science hasn't changed since we moved to Phase 2.

With pretty much all of the decisions that have been made, I feel that NC is just copying other states rather than using the data in our own state to make real, informed decisions. In my opinion, Cooper didn't want to go to Phase 3 for July 4th, because we went to Phase 2 at Memorial Day, and it wasn't good optics to have people gathering and partying on the holiday weekend. I believe the mask mandate, and the questionable reporting of numbers leading up to the decision to extend Phase 2, were used to justify a decision to try and help curtail social gatherings on what is the biggest social gathering day of the summer.

I remain skeptical that any of the measures that we have taken have had any meaningful impact on the spread of the virus, mainly because everything we have done has been woefully unsuccessful in stopping the transmission of the virus to the most vulnerable parts of our population. Rather than broad, sweeping orders that put so many of people out of work, I would have preferred detailed, aggressive measures to stop the spread to long term care facilities, processing plants, etc. Fully two thirds of the deaths in this state have occurred in congregate facilities, places that we knew at the start were vulnerable. How much different do our charts and graphs look if we devoted the resources necessary to lock down those facilities, test heavily in those areas, contract trace employees and patients alike when positive cases happen to stop whole facilities from having outbreaks? As I've written in this thread multiple times, I don't fault the decisions that were made in the early days of the virus, but once you have clear data as to where the problem spots are, focus your efforts there.

7 minutes of Michael Levitt being mad during a Lindau Nobel Laureate webcast. Again, not trying to validate all his points. But I get what he is saying, there should have been discussion, but anyone who had a different opinion was just told to shut it.

Sourced from: https://vimeo.com/433350887/33bbbe4090

Wayland said:

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7 minutes of Michael Levitt being mad during a Lindau Nobel Laureate webcast. Again, not trying to validate all his points. But I get what he is saying, there should have been discussion, but anyone who had a different opinion was just told to shut it.

Sourced from: https://vimeo.com/433350887/33bbbe4090

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The army of Stanford scientists and academics have been more right about the virus than the WHO, CDC, NIH, and most politicians.

Wake Forest Baptist Health has updated their antibody findings:

Updated 6/30/2020

• Current study enrollment:18,456
• Completed daily symptom logs: 634,123
• Positive antibody tests (percentage): 12-14%

Again, they appear to heavily lean on IgM numbers as opposed to IgG, and I don't know how that compares to other studies. Although they measure both, I was under the assumption that most were testing IgG. This is up from 8-10% last week (or maybe 2 weeks ago?)

Not to mention new findings on T-Cells.

Nonetheless, the higher the better!

Wayland said:

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7 minutes of Michael Levitt being mad during a Lindau Nobel Laureate webcast. Again, not trying to validate all his points. But I get what he is saying, there should have been discussion, but anyone who had a different opinion was just told to shut it.

Sourced from: https://vimeo.com/433350887/33bbbe4090

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Interesting that he continually says what many on here say --- look at the data. Understand the data. The data is key. And we've never really seen all the data....sometimes, I believe, by design.

Six Sigma teaches you to develop the data, and follow it.
Let the data teach YOU.

So it appears we have 1.4million "active" cases and have done roughly 34mil test so far. Now, if we take total cases and say run it out 10x for population, that would mean a total of 27mil roughly would end up with this virus IF everyone was tested. So far, almost have of all active cases have ended with a result. 90% recovery and 10% death. If that number ran true for population, we would have around 1.3mil deaths out of the roughly 320mil people in this country. 1.3mil is terrible but I don't believe it would be accurate because of the, I would bet, millions of people who have already had it and never knew it. Crazy to think how people would be acting if the actual numbers were put on tv. Specifically how many ACTIVE cases there are and not total cases. Then again, that doesn't get the eyeballs and panic that those in the media and the political parties want.

GP just posted on another thread and maybe he will put it here, that in an article dated May 21st from The Hill, it said the CDC was combining COVID19 positive test with antibody positive test and combining that number to total daily counts. Now, I am no expert but does this in any way, correlate to the spike we have been seeing for a few weeks now? Just asking for the sake of discussion not as a matter of fact.

Wayland said:

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7 minutes of Michael Levitt being mad during a Lindau Nobel Laureate webcast. Again, not trying to validate all his points. But I get what he is saying, there should have been discussion, but anyone who had a different opinion was just told to shut it.

Sourced from: https://vimeo.com/433350887/33bbbe4090

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I say we elect this guy

So the current panic is centered around the rapid escalation in cases in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California. North Carolina is reporting 46% of all cases in the Hispanic community (approximately 9% of the states population). Am I to believe that NC is an anomaly, or can we extrapolate that out to four of the states with the largest Hispanic populations in the country? 39% of California's 39.5 million citizens and 39% of Texas' 29 million citizens are Hispanic; and we wonder why their cases are spiking?

Just saw this. My how easily we forget...