Packchem91 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Some interesting data out of Charlotte regarding hospitalizations in Atrium's hospitals.

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First question - how does that compare to normal - that sounds like a very high utilization rate even if you took out the 29 covid patients (would still be >60%).

Second question...assume #1 is that it is high --- what is the other major factor driving that. Is it a rush to have other critical surgeries done now before covid may take over? Or just "full moon syndrome" or something otherwise normal fluctuation.

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I guess I could have read the tweet comments standard utilization is 80%

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Which means? (134/165=.812)

For some reason you didn't finish...

Saw another thread similar to this from Clay Travis.

Packchem91 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Some interesting data out of Charlotte regarding hospitalizations in Atrium's hospitals.

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First question - how does that compare to normal - that sounds like a very high utilization rate even if you took out the 29 covid patients (would still be >60%).

Second question...assume #1 is that it is high --- what is the other major factor driving that. Is it a rush to have other critical surgeries done now before covid may take over? Or just "full moon syndrome" or something otherwise normal fluctuation.

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I guess I could have read the tweet commentS standard utilization is 80%

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Healthcare consultants have been looking for any area to cut costs the past decade or so and unused bed capacity is a major data point they track and try to reduce

packgrad said:

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Saw another thread similar to this from Clay Travis.

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CANCELLED!

We've been decreasing slowly but had a slight bump this weekend. Had 40 admitted with 4 in ICU and 1 tubed Friday, now up to 51 with 8 and 3 I think.

IseWolf22 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Some interesting data out of Charlotte regarding hospitalizations in Atrium's hospitals.

---

First question - how does that compare to normal - that sounds like a very high utilization rate even if you took out the 29 covid patients (would still be >60%).

Second question...assume #1 is that it is high --- what is the other major factor driving that. Is it a rush to have other critical surgeries done now before covid may take over? Or just "full moon syndrome" or something otherwise normal fluctuation.

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I guess I could have read the tweet commentS standard utilization is 80%

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Healthcare consultants have been looking for any area to cut costs the past decade or so and unused bed capacity is a major data point they track and try to reduce

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Yup. I will say, ICU bed utilization is a very different animal tho

There used to be boxes of different masks outside each OR. Now, they've been moved to one central location and a nurse sits and guards them, and every time I'm walking back to do a case and grab a mask, the nurse has to mark it down. For some reason, that really bothers me. Sometimes it's the little things.

Mormad said:

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We've been decreasing slowly but had a slight bump this weekend. Had 40 admitted with 4 in ICU and 1 tubed Friday, now up to 51 with 8 and 3 I think.

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That is a big bump in ICU. Hopefully an anomaly and things can keep trending down.

I am curious how high numbers will be statewide when we get our next good reporting level.

TheStorm said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Packchem91 said:

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Daviewolf83 said:

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Some interesting data out of Charlotte regarding hospitalizations in Atrium's hospitals.

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First question - how does that compare to normal - that sounds like a very high utilization rate even if you took out the 29 covid patients (would still be >60%).

Second question...assume #1 is that it is high --- what is the other major factor driving that. Is it a rush to have other critical surgeries done now before covid may take over? Or just "full moon syndrome" or something otherwise normal fluctuation.

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I guess I could have read the tweet comments standard utilization is 80%

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Which means? (134/165=.812)

For some reason you didn't finish...

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"For some reason...", lol...I thought it was obvious --- not being someone who tracks ICU usage on the norm, my first Q was "how does this compare to normal" and in Jensen's further tweets, he answered that very question.
I had no idea that was the norm, though it makes sense given the idea you don't want empty rooms.

Seems Jensen was implying that, contrary to what some may convey in the news and despite the recent uptick in cases, covid patients are not inundating the ICU at the CLT hospitals, which is good. I assume then, that is in part b/c the driver now seems to be the 20-something crowd catching it, and many of them recover just fine.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to get statewide ICU numbers in over a week. Would love to know where things stand.

To date, hospitals haven't been over run. But there remains this underlying vibe that they still COULD be, which just seems unlikely if we all play nicely. So I think atrium starts to sweat a little when the get to 80 percent capacity in the ICU and 30 of those are covid instead of the normal zero covid making up some of that "normal" census. I heard some whispers of Duke considering shutting down electives again. Ugh.

TheStorm said:

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All these comparisons with EU, UK, NY, NJ, MA... kind of sounds like people are implying that we should have just let it run rampant in its early stages and let things run their course... sure... we would have had a ton more deaths, not enough hospital rooms, doctors, nurses, etc... and many more of us would have lost loved ones in the process (maybe even some of ourselves wouldn't be here anymore)... but society could already have this behind them and then the US could be held up as the proud standard of how to do it right (like EU, UK, NY, NJ, MA)!

Anything not to have to blame it on the riots, looting, destruction, arson - oh yeah, and those peaceful protests!

The dates line up like f'n clockwork... and then you can look at NCDHHS's graphs showing age breakdown of Confirmed Cases and age breakdown of Confirmed Deaths and you can further connect the dots...

But that would be too easy... it just has to be something else.

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Who on here is implying that spread is not related to the protests? I think it most clearly is. As said in an earlier post -- I see plenty of black people out w/o masks, so you'll not convince me they suddenly decided to wear them while protesting. I think the huge spike on the last couple of weeks is absolutely a driver for that.
And as have said consistently thru this thread, the media would love to mislead us on all that.

I know this is going to sound crazy...but there can be multiple drivers for our #s being higher. And there had been a lot of talk on here recently about bars, with folks claiming its purely politics to leave bars closed and a move to win NOV.. So I've talked about bars because I don't think that is political at all, but that there is merit to avoiding bars.

I think is clear, our #s being significantly higher than any other major modern country are impacted by multiple things.....
1) people taking this too lightly, which means they don't wear masks and/or social distance
2) people being anti-government, so purposefully disobeying the asks of the same
3) 1 & 2 made worse by allowing for access to crowded bar / club scenes
4) protests that brought large crowds into tight spaces, and often had no masks / social distancing
5) how our Latin American immigrant groups live and work in America. Tends to be ideal for spread.
And I'm sure there are others.....

Where's the science that explains your fixation on bars?

Also, the naivete to think response isn't political, or based on an upcoming election, is astounding.

packgrad said:

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Saw another thread similar to this from Clay Travis.

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Good stuff, nice to get that perspective. I imagine that's what we're seeing in NC because more test availability means people that aren't the most serious can get tested. So community spread is higher and the people that need to shelter should continue to do so (immune compromised, older with weaker immune systems), but they should let others continue on with their lives and do their best to stay away from those that have those pre-existing conditions.

Mormad said:

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There used to be boxes of different masks outside each OR. Now, they've been moved to one central location and a nurse sits and guards them, and every time I'm walking back to do a case and grab a mask, the nurse has to mark it down. For some reason, that really bothers me. Sometimes it's the little things.

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That's unfortunate. The State tracking site makes it seem like there's enough PPE out there, are you seeing shortages?

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/ppe

Mormad said:

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nm

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All this T-cell stuff is making me feel a little less crazy. It offers some explanation to the low AB % coming back from testing in some of the hardest hit areas. It always struck me as odd how much downward pressure there was at such a low population AB %.

And gives me hope that maybe I am not completely crazy that I could have had a T cell response despite being antibody-seronegative. Given I had repeat exposure to someone travelling back and forth from NY, and had a 'mild' two week respiratory illness in late Feb/early March. Which at the time, I never thought COVID because it still seemed to exist so far away. I know there are no guarantees and it could all be in my head still, but at least science says there is a chance I am not crazy (about this at least).

Packchem91 said:

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packgrad said:

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Where's the science that explains your fixation on bars?

Also, the naivete to think response isn't political, or based on an upcoming election, is astounding.

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I have no fixation -- simply responding to what you and Storm have made the center of your arguments...that the continued closing of bars is somehow the epicenter of stupidity. I simply disagree.

I'm not sure how many times I have to say thru this thread that clearly politics are involved. They are. And Cooper deserves a lot of criticism, and his lack of transparency should make us all angry and questioning.

What you've yet to explain to me is how the closing of bars by a state governor plays into a national election since that is what you guys have said it is. How does people being angry at Cooper in NC hurt Trump?

If I follow the logic that NC is a state that is too close to call, wouldn't that strategy --- ticking off many folks in the state -- actually be worse for the national election? People who may have been undecided, or not going to vote, would be more inclined to rise up and go vote straight GOP?

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Bars are the center of my argument? Maybe you should read the thread. I get that you joined the discussion 3.5 months later than most commenting here, and you're trying to provoke attention based on making up things people have said. But perhaps if you actually read what people say and comment on that, you might understand.

Bars shouldn't be closed if other businesses are allowed to open. Simple as that. Is that the "center of my argument"? No. It's my argument about bars though. You've yet to show why bars need to be closed, especially when breweries and restaurants can be open. What reason, other than political, are they not allowed to open when breweries and restaurants are? Do business owners that own bars not deserve to be able to make a living?

Also, do you think Cooper is not up for election? Just Trump?

I don't post much but i think that the thought process behind the bar issue is impaired judgement during a pandemic after visiting said establishments.We can talk **** about all the decisions made on both sides of
the issues,but remember that we are responsible for ourselves and those around us.They/he is responsible
for everyone in this state,Pandemic=Global epidemic Carry on but be safe!

Danny Teal said:

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I don't post much but i think that the thought process behind the bar issue is impaired judgement during a pandemic after visiting said establishments.We can talk **** about all the decisions made on both sides of
the issues,but remember that we are responsible for ourselves and those around us.They/he is responsible
for everyone in this state,Pandemic=Global epidemic Carry on but be safe!

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I would understand that logic, although might not agree with it, if it applied to breweries, restaurants, and, ABC stores also.

If you have time today, I strongly encourage you to devote a few minutes to reading the following blog post regarding the latest surge and what it might mean. It is written by a person on Twitter that I follow named @polimath. The person writing it is a Data Scientist, living in the statistics world and interpreting the impact on the world based on statistics for a living. I always find his views to be insightful and compelling. From a qualifications standpoint, he has an undergraduate and Masters degree in Mathematics and a PhD in Political Science (where polimath comes from).

He has looked at the current data regarding the surge and in summary, he says:

"I hate the waiting. I hate how difficult it is to tell friends and family "I don't know what is going on". I like to be cautiously optimistic, but the data is giving me very mixed signals and it's best to come out and simply say what we know."

He also clearly says it is too easy to point blame on particular groups or behaviors that could be leading to the surge. I think this is a good message for everyone to adopt at this time, but I am sure the media and politicians will try anyway, since they do not care what the data is really telling us. They want to use it to attack their enemies and hold people accountable, even when they can not accurately articulate what they are holding them accountable for.

You can read the posting here:

https://polimath.substack.com/p/what-do-recent-case-surges-mean

Meck County cases seem to be stabilizing a little.



Their hospitalizations keep creeping up though.

statefan91 said:

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Mormad said:

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There used to be boxes of different masks outside each OR. Now, they've been moved to one central location and a nurse sits and guards them, and every time I'm walking back to do a case and grab a mask, the nurse has to mark it down. For some reason, that really bothers me. Sometimes it's the little things.

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That's unfortunate. The State tracking site makes it seem like there's enough PPE out there, are you seeing shortages?

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/ppe

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Not that I can tell

Really annoyed at the reporting for Meck and how they only update those graphs every 5 days or so.

statefan91 said:

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Really annoyed at the reporting for Meck and how they only update those graphs every 5 days or so.

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As much as I question leadership and some policy driven stuff out of Meck. At least we get this.

Wake provides absolute CRAP for data and does ZERO along this line. I wish Wake would provide half as much information Wake might be close to the worst county in the state when it comes to information. I have actually been impressed at the level of detail some of the medium or smaller counties provide (especially compared to Wake).

I have yet to see anyone call out Wake unfortunately.

For those saying the bar issue is political here in NC, why are Arizona, Texas, and Florida closing bars as well?

Wayland said:

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All this T-cell stuff is making me feel a little less crazy. It offers some explanation to the low AB % coming back from testing in some of the hardest hit areas. It always struck me as odd how much downward pressure there was at such a low population AB %.

And gives me hope that maybe I am not completely crazy that I could have had a T cell response despite being antibody-seronegative. Given I had repeat exposure to someone travelling back and forth from NY, and had a 'mild' two week respiratory illness in late Feb/early March. Which at the time, I never thought COVID because it still seemed to exist so far away. I know there are no guarantees and it could all be in my head still, but at least science says there is a chance I am not crazy (about this at least).

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Wayland - I think you may find this Twitter thread on T-Cells to be interesting. Seems to back up what you are thinking.

Caving to political pressure. It's an election year.

Do those states allow breweries to stay opened but tell bars they cannot open?

Very interesting thread, thanks for sharing

I try and avoid the politics side of this. But closing bars let's them appear to be in control and making an attempt to deflect blame. If deaths spike they can always say "But I closed the bars, I tried to do something." Bars are a super soft target for politicians to targets.

Kind of a form of security theater when just about everything else is open. There is problem in the massive hypocrisy in the general decision making process.

But, I will quietly back away from any political discussion now.

A lot of what is closed and what isn't comes down to pressure from media and social media. If bars are open, and a state sees an increase, then the bars get blamed and people start crowing about it until they get shut down. Whether there is any actual proof that the outbreaks come from bars or not. Same thing happened with the beaches here early on. They were initially open, and people crowded the beaches and were having parties on the islands, and it ended up on the news and that forced their hand on closures. I'm not saying whether or not bars or beaches or anything should or shouldn't be opened, but a lot of these decisions are being made based on public sentiment, not necessarily science. Reasonable people can see that there's no difference in people getting drunk in a bar and people getting drunk at a brewery, or between people hanging out outside at the beach versus hanging out outside at a park, and that's where the questions come in about what is open and why.