We can get three 2 hour blocks (2 weekday and 1 weekend) a week. Although you can walk-up if not all the spots are taken. Usually the only 'full times' are noon to 6pm on Saturdays and Sundays, other than that you can almost always just walk in, if you don't have an available reservation spot left.

Wayland said:

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Maybe a portion of that pressure that isn't being found in AB testing?

Alternatively, is there a possibility of calibration issues in AB testing?

https://osf.io/y3fxt/

All this is why I have been going off of a 'detectable' AB %. Because while low, there was some sort of downward pressure being applied when these hardest hit places started getting to a certain % of 'detectable IgG AB with current testing'. I am still grasping at straws, but it is obvious that there has been something missing. These may not be what it is.... but there is something forcing these curves down.

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Even more along this line of non-detectable AB immune response.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449v1.full.pdf

Quote:

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Conclusion. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 can induce virus-specific T cell responses without seroconversion. T cell responses may be more sensitive indicators of SARS-CoV-2 exposure than antibodies. Our results indicate that epidemiological data relying only on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may lead to a substantial underestimation of prior exposure to the virus.

---

Killer Ts may be where the money lies. Abs are formed in response to an exposed antigen on the cell surface... The spike. That thing can change, and then the abs don't recognize it. But killer Ts recognize nuclear material... They could be real immunity???

So I just heard on the radio that "Dr" Fauci says we can't play football this fall.

Who decided that this rat-faced manlet was the new "god" of the country...and not only the "czar" of the United States entire medical system, but now the dictator of every aspect of our lives? Last I checked, he actually has no power.

And the government certainly has no rightful authority to assert this level of control over our lives. Show me in the Constitution where federal (or state) governments have the rightful power to tell us to stay in our homes, shut down businesses, and stop our entire lives?

For those that study the trends, when can we expect the number of deaths to rise in accordance with the rising cases across the country? I saw a chart this afternoon on Twitter that showed the number of deaths each day from mid-march through today. It showed a steady decline in deaths per day from a peak on April 21 or 22. I hadn't seen a graphic showing such a steady decline in deaths on the news or heard it mentioned by any newscasts I've watched. It was really nice to see the decline in daily death totals in the midst of a 24/7 news cycle where the sky is always falling. Of course, the graphic could have been fake propaganda. In that case nevermind.

I have another couple of questions that I have avoided asking to keep this thread from becoming too political. That seems to have vanished the last couple pages.

Will the governors ever be held accountable for sending covid-19 positive patients back into nursing homes whether the nursing homes were prepared or equipped to handle those infected patients? Not sure if it was a case of not being so bright or just pure evil. It is a disgrace and someone should be held accountable. One govorner in particular has been asked by our corrupt media about being "single and ready to mingle" with the ladies more times than he has been pressed on his deadly nursing home policies.

Does anyone know who is responsible for oversight of nursing homes normally? I was thinking maybe it would be each county health department. This system of oversight needs a complete overhaul no matter who is responsible. Pathetic.

Also, am I the only one who hasn't been impressed with the CDC? They look like a typical bloated government agency unable to do their job. Talk about morbidly obese. I wish enough citizens cared to force our government agencies to receive an enema. An outside group of accountants could really streamline these agencies and save the taxpayers billions and make the government more efficient and productive.

We are over 4 weeks out from the start of Phase 2 and Memorial Day weekend, I expected the death spike to start last week. Maybe we will start seeing something this week. It looks like most of the congregate outbreaks are smaler in nature now so that is keeping deaths down.

Still, I think if we can clear one more death spike we will start trending down, I just expected it by now. If not this week then I don't know when.

What people do fail to realize with the national case curve I just how many cases were out there in April that were being missed.... Like millions of them.

Quick thought. The point was made earlier that places that got hit hard early (NY, NJ, Sweden, etc), aren't really seeing a second wave at all no matter how much they "open". I know some of the antibody tests had NY at about 20% positive for the entire population there.

Maybe a portion of the population won't get sick from this virus for reasons we don't know. Maybe they got it and we're asymptomatic, and still test negative for antibodies. Could this be why Sweden and NY aren't seeing a second wave? Could they possibly be close to "herd immunity" when you combine people that have gotten over the virus, and people that won't get sick from it?

Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Quick thought. The point was made earlier that places that got hit hard early (NY, NJ, Sweden, etc), aren't really seeing a second wave at all no matter how much they "open". I know some of the antibody tests had NY at about 20% positive for the entire population there.

Maybe a portion of the population won't get sick from this virus for reasons we don't know. Maybe they got it and we're asymptomatic, and still test negative for antibodies. Could this be why Sweden and NY aren't seeing a second wave? Could they possibly be close to "herd immunity" when you combine people that have gotten over the virus, and people that won't get sick from it?

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Check out my recent posts with links ( on this page up a little) on T cell, AB test calibration, and reduction in detectable AB post infection.

I am definitely of the opinion there is a downward pressure that is not being captured in these places which is why I have started referring to 'detectable AB' when discussing seroprevelance. There is something working in combination with detectable AB which is applying downward pressure.

I am not smart enough to know what it is, but I have stared at enough charts over the last three months to know something is missing.

Wayland said:

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Tobaccoroadsportscafe said:

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Quick thought. The point was made earlier that places that got hit hard early (NY, NJ, Sweden, etc), aren't really seeing a second wave at all no matter how much they "open". I know some of the antibody tests had NY at about 20% positive for the entire population there.

Maybe a portion of the population won't get sick from this virus for reasons we don't know. Maybe they got it and we're asymptomatic, and still test negative for antibodies. Could this be why Sweden and NY aren't seeing a second wave? Could they possibly be close to "herd immunity" when you combine people that have gotten over the virus, and people that won't get sick from it?

---

Check out my recent posts with links ( on this page up a little) on T cell, AB test calibration, and reduction in detectable AB post infection.

I am definitely of the opinion there is a downward pressure that is not being captured in these places which is why I have started referring to 'detectable AB' when discussing seroprevelance. There is something working in combination with detectable AB which is applying downward pressure.

I am not smart enough to know what it is, but I have stared at enough charts over the last three months to know something is missing.

---

Thanks for posting those and for your posts in general, look forward to going through them tonight.

Speaking of how many cases may have been missed. Again, take all these things with a grain of salt. But things to think about.

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally

"Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.
....
Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period."

Link to actual full article.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/scitranslmed.abc1126

I actually caught part of Cohen's news conference yesterday... How is she allowed to get away saying non-truthful things that fly directly in the face of NCDHHS's own numbers?

"Numbers are going in the wrong direction".

"Numbers keep going up up and up"!

Then when you actually look at their own numbers here's what our running averages show:

Confirmed Cases / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) We have not had one single-day with a running average higher than it was at the start of Phase 2... and while basically flat, we are still lower than we were then.*This number is also flat over the last week (June 15 - June 22). The numbers did slowly rise the first two (2) weeks in June - but again - last week they were flat.

Confirmed Deaths / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 26 of the last 30 days and falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 46.5% from our high on 5/2. 3) Down 32.9% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

Confirmed Deaths / Confirmed Cases - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 24 out of the last 30 days and also falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 40.0% from our high on 5/8. 3) Down 32.1% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

We've either found a much more effective treatment that we are using in our hospitals over the last month and it is saving a lot more lives - or we are now admitting people that we wouldn't have admitted prior to Phase 2.

Why is Dr. Cohen communicating things that are not accurate?

Optimism doesn't fit the narrative for the plan they are about to announce. They are ignoring data that doesn't fit their pandemic plan.

ICU Data updated to show 6/21/20 data. Overall ICU numbers remain stable over the last 2+ weeks. Increase out of CAPRAC



Most of the increase in hospitalizations is coming from non-critical Meck County and CAPRAC (Wake Med, Johnston UNC, etc).

COVID-19 is still serious and we need to mitigate the spread. I am still interested though in a further breakdown of ICU vs Step-Down vs non-critical, to get a clearer picture.

Wayland said:

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ICU Data updated to show 6/21/20 data. Overall ICU numbers remain stable over the last 2+ weeks. Increase out of CAPRAC



Most of the increase in hospitalizations is coming from non-critical Meck County and CAPRAC (Wake Med, Johnston UNC, etc)

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So in other words anyone can go to the hospital now even if they are just having mild symptoms? And ICU is stable which could indicate we are having our "mound". It's not really a spike but a slow mound at this point right?

ncsualum05 said:

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Wayland said:

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ICU Data updated to show 6/21/20 data. Overall ICU numbers remain stable over the last 2+ weeks. Increase out of CAPRAC



Most of the increase in hospitalizations is coming from non-critical Meck County and CAPRAC (Wake Med, Johnston UNC, etc)

---

So in other words anyone can go to the hospital now even if they are just having mild symptoms? And ICU is stable which could indicate we are having our "mound". It's not really a spike but a slow mound at this point right?

---

I can't speak to hospital admission policy, but beginning in late May the number of non-critical patients began to increase dramatically while the number of ICU admits remained relatively stable. Was that a change in admission policy? Preprocedural testing identifying people coming into the hospital for other things testing positive? An increase in younger less severely affected patients? More than likely a combination of all these things. But by not asking for any information other than 'Total COVID positive patients', we fail to understand what is behind the data.

Meck went from ICU being 37% percent of their patients on 6/10 to 28% of their patients yesterday. Their ICU number actually went down and their non-ICU increased by over 50.

The only non June ICU data I have is for mid April. And in mid-April there were about ~200 ICU patients and consistently in June we have been ~300+. Again assuming all ICU is treated equally and all hospitals are either counting Step-Down in their counts or are not. And while admits have been consistent, ICU, I would think would take longer to resolve, so some of the issue could be just longer hospitalizations backing up.

My completely unscientific opinion, is that we are actually pretty close to our peak, which is why I think if we ever start to bend down things will slowly settle. Which is why I hope every day for to see the change.

But again, every community, every region is going to have its own outbreak curve so it becomes a little hard to put that together. And not that the virus won't continue to be out there, just that it will be harder and harder for it to find pathways to outbreak.

I am less concerned about case testing because it is a crap number. We were so bad at testing early, we missed SOOOOOOO MANY cases both as a state and a country that those numbers are an awful comparison over a long period of time. You can't compare any test data from this last week to anything done in May or April since they aren't actually related data.

Wayland said:

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ncsualum05 said:

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Wayland said:

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ICU Data updated to show 6/21/20 data. Overall ICU numbers remain stable over the last 2+ weeks. Increase out of CAPRAC



Most of the increase in hospitalizations is coming from non-critical Meck County and CAPRAC (Wake Med, Johnston UNC, etc)

---

So in other words anyone can go to the hospital now even if they are just having mild symptoms? And ICU is stable which could indicate we are having our "mound". It's not really a spike but a slow mound at this point right?

---

I can't speak to hospital admission policy, but beginning in late May the number of non-critical patients began to increase dramatically while the number of ICU admits remained relatively stable. Was that a change in admission policy? Preprocedural testing identifying people coming into the hospital for other things testing positive? An increase in younger less severely affected patients? More than likely a combination of all these things. But by not asking for any information other than 'Total COVID positive patients', we fail to understand what is behind the data.

Meck went from ICU being 37% percent of their patients on 6/10 to 28% of their patients yesterday. Their ICU number actually went down and their non-ICU increased by over 50.

The only non June ICU data I have is for mid April. And in mid-April there were about ~200 ICU patients and consistently in June we have been ~300+. Again assuming all ICU is treated equally and all hospitals are either counting Step-Down in their counts or are not. And while admits have been consistent, ICU, I would think would take longer to resolve, so some of the issue could be just longer hospitalizations backing up.

My completely unscientific opinion, is that we are actually pretty close to our peak, which is why I think if we ever start to bend down things will slowly settle. Which is why I hope every day for to see the change.

But again, every community, every region is going to have its own outbreak curve so it becomes a little hard to put that together. And not that the virus won't continue to be out there, just that it will be harder and harder for it to find pathways to outbreak.

I am less concerned about case testing because it is a crap number. We were so bad at testing early, we missed SOOOOOOO MANY cases both as a state and a country that those numbers are an awful comparison over a long period of time. You can't compare any test data from this last week to anything done in May or April since they aren't actually related data.

---

As you know, I tried to estimate the number of currently active cases. I calculate the number active based on an assumption that people are sick for at least 21 days. Normally it is 14 days, but I added an additional week to account for a tail to the distribution and capture some of the people hospitalized.

Based on this calculation, the percentage of active cases that are currently hospitalized has been declining for the past couple of months, even with the growth in hospitalizations and cases. Case growth has been much greater than hospitalizations and this is why percentages are following as hospitalization numbers rise. Currently, I am estimating 2% of current active cases are hospitalized and this is down from 3% back in May. April was 6-7% of active cases being hospitalized.

So yes, hospitalizations are up, but they are up as a function of case growth. Since daily testing has stabilized over the past couple of weeks and the percentage positive is fairly stable around 9%, I would estimate hospitalization numbers will increase for another 7 days and then begin to stabilize. We will not see more growth unless testing increases significantly.

TheStorm said:

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I actually caught part of Cohen's news conference yesterday... How is she allowed to get away saying non-truthful things that fly directly in the face of NCDHHS's own numbers?

"Numbers are going in the wrong direction".

"Numbers keep going up up and up"!

Then when you actually look at their own numbers here's what our running averages show:

Confirmed Cases / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) We have not had one single-day with a running average higher than it was at the start of Phase 2... and while basically flat, we are still lower than we were then.*This number is also flat over the last week (June 15 - June 22). The numbers did slowly rise the first two (2) weeks in June - but again - last week they were flat.

Confirmed Deaths / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 26 of the last 30 days and falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 46.5% from our high on 5/2. 3) Down 32.9% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

Confirmed Deaths / Confirmed Cases - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 24 out of the last 30 days and also falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 40.0% from our high on 5/8. 3) Down 32.1% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

We've either found a much more effective treatment that we are using in our hospitals over the last month and it is saving a lot more lives - or we are now admitting people that we wouldn't have admitted prior to Phase 2.

Why is Dr. Cohen communicating things that are not accurate?

---

Agree completely that reports from the state are too vague, circumstantial, and potentially misleading (either internationally or not).

But regarding confirmed deaths/confirmed cases is there evidence that perhaps of both quelling CCF outbreaks (disproportionate deaths per case) and also more young people getting sick (or at least more getting tested) is driving that number down.

If CCF outbreaks are controlled and young people are going out to bars/work/restaurants, etc. it's quite possible case count would increase but deaths per case would go down.

Civilized said:

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TheStorm said:

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I actually caught part of Cohen's news conference yesterday... How is she allowed to get away saying non-truthful things that fly directly in the face of NCDHHS's own numbers?

"Numbers are going in the wrong direction".

"Numbers keep going up up and up"!

Then when you actually look at their own numbers here's what our running averages show:

Confirmed Cases / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) We have not had one single-day with a running average higher than it was at the start of Phase 2... and while basically flat, we are still lower than we were then.*This number is also flat over the last week (June 15 - June 22). The numbers did slowly rise the first two (2) weeks in June - but again - last week they were flat.
I
Confirmed Deaths / Completed Tests - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 26 of the last 30 days and falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 46.5% from our high on 5/2. 3) Down 32.9% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

Confirmed Deaths / Confirmed Cases - since May 22 (start of Phase 2), 1) Running Average has dropped 24 out of the last 30 days and also falling more and more rapidly. 2) Down 40.0% from our high on 5/8. 3) Down 32.1% since the start of Phase 2 on 5/22.

We've either found a much more effective treatment that we are using in our hospitals over the last month and it is saving a lot more lives - or we are now admitting people that we wouldn't have admitted prior to Phase 2.

Why is Dr. Cohen communicating things that are not accurate?

---

Agree completely that reports from the state are too vague, circumstantial, and potentially misleading (either internationally or not).

But regarding confirmed deaths/confirmed cases is there evidence that perhaps of both quelling CCF outbreaks (disproportionate deaths per case) and also more young people getting sick (or at least more getting tested) is driving that number down.

If CCF outbreaks are controlled and young people are going out to bars/work/restaurants, etc. it's quite possible case count would increase but deaths per case would go down.

---

I do believe deaths are declining for a couple of reasons:

1. As you point out, the average age for cases is starting to skew to the younger age groups. Since these age groups have better outcomes from a mortality and case severity, it is driving some reduction.
2. The medical community is continuing to find treatments that are effective in treating some of the more severe cases and reducing the number of deaths as a result.

Even though case counts are increasing, the following is happening (based on the data):

1. The percentage of active cases hospitalized (my estimates based on recovery times) has been declining since April and is at 2% (as I just mentioned above)
2. Deaths as a percentage of cases is currently at 2% and it has been declining over time.
3. Percentage of positive cases as a percentage of daily tests is averaging 7% over the past two weeks. This is the same percentage as the prior two week period.

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

---

6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.

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6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.

---

6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.

---

6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.

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6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.

---

6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.

---

6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.

Are you finding anything on length of stay at the hospital?

Also, I just saw something where Mayor Lyles in Charlotte wants the State to have a mask mandate. I feel like this should've been done by the State when Phase 2 started and we probably wouldn't have nearly as many cases as we do now. I'm not sure about efficacy and it seems weird that WHO and others doubted mask efficacy at the start, but I don't mind wearing one and certainly won't judge someone else who has a medical reason for not being able to wear one.

Nothing on length of stay. Would be interesting insight.

My uncle told me earlier today that he talked to a contractor who is pricing some work on a new house my uncle is building. Contractor caught the virus at a family gathering. Said his whole immediately family got it. Wife and kid mild symptoms. He went to the hospital because he just couldn't shake his fever... bad chills. That was his only symptom. But... the hospital told him he had to stay 5 days before they'd release him. He felt better within a day. That's a hospitalization to add to the numbers right there. He may not had to have gone but he was worried about the fever so he was being on the safe side.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/reconsider-what-you-re-doing-duke-er-nurse-asks-people-as-coronavirus-cases-mount/19156591/

Ncstatefan01 said:

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https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/reconsider-what-you-re-doing-duke-er-nurse-asks-people-as-coronavirus-cases-mount/19156591/

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It looks like this same nurse has been doing these videos for months.

Here is one from early April.

https://www.wral.com/duke-nurse-gives-inside-look-at-virus-battle/19051712/

Wayland said:

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Ncstatefan01 said:

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https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/reconsider-what-you-re-doing-duke-er-nurse-asks-people-as-coronavirus-cases-mount/19156591/

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It looks like this same nurse has been doing these videos for months.

Here is one from early April.

https://www.wral.com/duke-nurse-gives-inside-look-at-virus-battle/19051712/

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WRAL has had her on every week or so. It is one person's view of the situation inside the hospital, but as we say in data science - she is a data point of one.

Overall ICU down 1 on 6/22 (91% report) from 6/18 which was an 88% reporting day and previous ICU high that I had. Looks like still some growth in CAPRAC. But good sign that ICU is STABLE overall despite the rise in cases.



Interesting that while on their dashboard DHHS touts a '10 percent positive rating' but their brief says otherwise.



In overall COVID hospitalizations, Triad continues to be stable to slightly down, even with 100% of their groups reporting.
Hospitalization growth is out of Triangle and Meck.

I saw that 10% on the testing tab and was really perplexed at how they were getting to it.

statefan91 said:

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I saw that 10% on the testing tab and was really perplexed at how they were getting to it.

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Best, I can tell it is voodoo magic.

statefan91 said:

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I saw that 10% on the testing tab and was really perplexed at how they were getting to it.

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They want that to be the number that gets reported by the news media. Been that way for more than a while now.

Wayland said:

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statefan91 said:

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I saw that 10% on the testing tab and was really perplexed at how they were getting to it.

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Best, I can tell it is voodoo magic.

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The graph below shows a comparison of the calculated percent positive versus the NCDHHS reported percent positive on a daily basis, since May 1. The calculated percent positive takes the daily new cases and divides it by the daily new tests. I have no idea how the NCDHHS percentage is calculated.

If you look closely at the graph, there is a distinct upward shift that occurs in the NCDHHS graph around May 21. Since I do not have access to the NCDHHS's underlying numbers, I can not explain this shift. From May 1 to May 21, the NCDHHS percentage averaged 7% positive. From May 22 to yesterday, the average has increased to 9%. For the calculated percentages, they have averaged 7% for both periods (5/1 to 5/21 and 5/22 to 6/23). I have to assume there was a change in methodology for the calculation of the percentage by NCDHHS around the 5/21 date.

Thanks again to you guys for doing the analysis and posting your results. I really appreciate it!

Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Wayland said:

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Quote:

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6/16/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
45,853
NC Deaths
1154
Currently Hospitalized
829 <- 85% still stable since increased from 73% yesterday reporting
Completed Tests
651,421

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
723 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
97 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+7)
+36 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

334 Deaths assumed General Population (+12)
820 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+24)

193 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+6)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1196* and NandO is at 1169 deaths

751 positive cases over 12,942 new tests. 5.8% positive rate.

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6/17/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
46,855
NC Deaths
1168
Currently Hospitalized
846 <- 86% reporting (was 829 at 85% yesterday)
Completed Tests
667,422

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
729 Deaths are now Congregate (+6)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

340 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
828 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+8)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1208* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1002 positive cases over 16,001 new tests. 6.3% positive rate.

Dates of deaths reported today:
5/22 - 1
5/31 - 1
6/2 - 1
6/13 -2
6/14 - 2
6/15 - 3
6/16 - 4

Don't know who the back log belongs to. I think the majority of the deaths today were reported out of Meck/Guilford. But since they are also the two hardest places, just as likely to be the current reports.

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6/18/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
48,188
NC Deaths
1175
Currently Hospitalized
857 <- 88% reporting (was 846 at 86% yesterday) still roughly stable. higher % report.
Completed Tests
693,678

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
733 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
99 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+0)
+14 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

343 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
832 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+4)

195 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1222* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1333 positive cases over 26,256 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.

7 deaths reported today occurred between 6/11 and 6/17

54% of the delta in the case ethnicity data (where available) were Hispanic.

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6/19/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
49,840
NC Deaths
1197
Currently Hospitalized
871 <- 91% reporting (was 857 at 88% yesterday) new high, but higher %. Roughly stable
Completed Tests
712,313

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
745 Deaths are now Congregate (+12)
105 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+22 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

347 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
850 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+18)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-4)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1235* and NandO is at 1181 deaths

1652 positive cases over 18,638 new tests. 8.9% positive rate.

These hospitalizations need to go down. The only bright side is that the % of reporting hospitals has increased each day that the overall number has increased. The number is relatively stable but NEEDS to decline.

The case total is lower than last Friday, so not a new high. That is a positive we see a little case stabilization, maybe.

16 of the deaths reported today are from the last week. There was an adjustment and one death was removed from 5/27. One death reported today was as far back as 5/17, one additional on 5/31.

Deaths are still being driven by congregate facilities.

Of the cases with a reported ethnicity, over 50% of new cases are Hispanic.

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6/20/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
51389
NC Deaths
1212
Currently Hospitalized
883 <- 87% reporting (was 871 at 91% yesterday) new high.
Completed Tests
731,341

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
749 Deaths are now Congregate (+4)
106 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+15 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

357 Deaths assumed General Population (+10)
855 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

192 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1262* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1549 positive cases over 19028 new tests. 8.1% positive rate.

Hospitalizations creeping up. Both ICU and overall are higher. Still need to turn that corner. First day in a while not driven by congregate deaths. Most of the ICU increases are coming out of EHPC (Eastern NC) and MHPC (Meck). Most other groups are relatively stable.

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6/21/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
52801
NC Deaths
1220
Currently Hospitalized
845<- 74% reporting (was 883 at 87% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Stable/Small increase
Completed Tests
745,775


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
752 Deaths are now Congregate (+3)
108 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+2)
+8 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+3)
860 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+5)

190 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (-2)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1269* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1197 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1412 positive cases over 14434 new tests. 9.8% positive rate.

3 day case rate reported last 6/12-6/14 = 4638, 6/19-621 = 4613. Cases stable week over week.

60% of new cases with ethnicity reported today are Hispanic. Need to keep focusing resources there to help.

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6/22/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
53605
NC Deaths
1223
Currently Hospitalized
870<- 73% reporting (was 845 at 74% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
757.345


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
754 Deaths are now Congregate (+2)
109 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+1)
+3 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

360 Deaths assumed General Population (+0)
863 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+3)

191 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1273* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1220 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

804 positive cases over 11570 new tests. 6.9% positive rate.

Less than half of tests today had ethnicity data, would be interesting to know sourcing.

All 3 reported deaths were from 6/20-6/21.

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6/23/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
54,453
NC Deaths
1251
Currently Hospitalized
915 new high <- 91% reporting (was 870 at 73% yesterday) Higher reporting %. Higher # admits.
Completed Tests
773,828

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
771 Deaths are now Congregate (+17)
114 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+5)
+28 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

366 Deaths assumed General Population (+6)
885 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+22)

196 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+5)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1275* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1223 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

848 positive cases over 16,483 new tests. 5.1% positive rate.



Highest hospitalizations, but also one of the highest reporting days in weeks. This continues to creep up slowly and will be the reason for whatever Executive Orders come next, but dangerous to not provide context to this number.

Meck is having a tough time maintaining their peak case counts from last week. Still high but not as high.

Date of Death not updated yet.
I suspect a number of these deaths are lagged data. There has been a large gap in the DHHS data, and I feel like they were waiting for a quiet Tuesday to throw this all in. We will see if I am right. EDIT: WRAL showed a bit of a jump as well, so I expect we might see the lag data from the smaller counties come in over the next day as well.

Peak at the locations of deaths reported today, 5 Cumberland, 4 Robeson, and 3 Chatham. No other county above 2. I believe these are some of the counties I identified a while back as having a large disconnect with DHHS reporting. Most of this is 1 and 2 offs in smaller counties.

EDIT: As I was saying, 8 of the deaths added to the graph today are over 2 weeks old and an additional 3 are between 1 and 2 weeks old.

Deaths included from today are from 5/24, 5/25, 5/26, 6/1, 6/4(2), 6/5, 6/6, 6/11, and 6/13(2). The remaining deaths are from the last 7 days.

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6/24/2020 Morning DHHS update (as of 12:00pm)

NC Cases
56,174
NC Deaths
1271 (Date of Death Graphy only lists 1266 deaths)
Currently Hospitalized
906 <- 88% reporting (was 915 at 91% yesterday) Lower reporting %. Lower # admits.
Completed Tests
791,285

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
781 Deaths are now Congregate (+10)
120 Deaths are now Unknown Setting (+6)
+20 Deaths Overall since yesterday.

370 Deaths assumed General Population (+4)
901 Congregate and Unknown Setting. (+16)

197 Congregate Facilities now have an outbreak. (+1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WRAL is at 1294* deaths (Questionable sourcing. Doesn't make corrections when numbers adjusted)
NandO is at 1251 deaths (may be no longer keeping separate count from DHHS)

1721 positive cases over 17,457 new tests. 9.9% positive rate.

Case data and day of death data have not been updated. Huge case dump to justify(?) whatever Cooper's decision is. Will be interesting to see if the next two days are also huge spikes, the high reporting usually comes later in the week.

Interesting. When I break down their county data, I only get 1461 cases assigned to counties. That leaves 260 cases that are not being assigned a location. I wonder why that is? Something about this feel a little like a data dump again.

Meck+ 247
Wake+ 147
Guilford +65
Forsyth +64
No other county over 40 new cases.

Even worse they have screwed up their Total Deaths by Date of Deaths graph by adding 20 deaths today in the Outbreaks and Clusters tab but only 15 in their Date of Death tab... so there is that. They are also now listing a missing date of death... which is kind of odd they don't know when someone died but they know how.

Even worse than stating that they only added 15 deaths to the chart today, they somehow actually added 22 instead of 20. HOT MESS.

Deaths again high from Cumberland and Guilford and DHHS now reporting higher deaths than the counties themselves report, wish I know why the reporting discrepancies.

EDIT: Parts of this tweet ended up not being accurate. Masks are now required