NC State’s season took an abrupt u-turn when they got swept at home by Clemson a couple of weeks ago, and with it, their tournament outlook changed dramatically.
How did we end up here?
10 days ago the talk was about hosting, but now State might be a bubble team – if you want to be optimistic. You can’t get swept at home by anybody, particularly Clemson, even though they look better now. This happened last year against Wake Forest and it cost State. It cost them again this year even if they still find a way to dance.
The upside projecting State a month ago was looking at the schedule and thinking eventually their poor luck would turn. Well, they went 3-3 at home against FSU and Clemson, so the comfortable schedule is gone.
Their luck turned with a couple of tight wins against FSU (State is now 4-3 in one run ACC games, even though their +1 run differential indicates a team that should be .500 in ACC play, not four games under), but they simply have not played as well as they did earlier in the year -- even though they weren’t winning those games. I haven’t been inspired by the last four games of non-conference play, either, despite the win over ECU.
Looking back, a couple of losses sting, but none as much as the last BC game. If that’s a win, State is probably fine, but it wasn’t. An inexplicable loss at the time has gotten worse as the season has gone on.
The Resume
State’s resume is being carried by their RPI of 24. I haven’t figured out how it’s at 24, but the non conference schedule has somehow held up. There’s no dead weight in the ACC, so that’s certainly helped the case, too.
The positives are that State has no ugly losses on the resume. They’re 22-1 in games against teams outside the top 50. The series win over Louisville has lost steam, but it’s still nice. Wins over Coastal and ECU should matter, but the committee did not care about it last year, so who knows.
7-13 in top 50 games, lack of quality series wins, and ACC record are the biggest barriers for State. The Pack really needs the Louisville series to mean more than it does. If State wasn’t 8-12 it’s not as big of an issue, but at the same time, they wouldn’t be 8-12 with another series win. This is where the BC loss hurts the most.
What Needs To Happen?
There’s nine ACC games left plus the ACC Tournament, although the committee has repeatedly shown they don’t care about the latter. Additionally, the Pack is currently only 0.5 games clear of missing the conference tournament, which is another problem to worry about.
6-3 would get the Pack to 14-15 in the league, likely with a top-20 RPI. That gets you in. The Pack is currently 2-5 in league series this year which is something that was an issue last year, hence why series wins are important against fellow bubble teams Notre Dame and UNC. Note that I don’t think 6-3 is a lock if it involves a series loss to one of those teams.
I don’t see the Pack getting in with a 5-4 finish. That would put them at 13-16, which would not be an unprecedented inclusion to the tournament, but it’s a major uphill battle. With the lack of quality series wins, I don’t think it’s enough. And are you really going to count on the NCAA committee to do any sort of favor for NC State?
Will They Get It Done?
I’ve been the high man on this team all year but I’m now in “prove-it” mode. They are 2-5 in ACC series this year after going 4-6 last year. How can you project them to suddenly win three series in a row and/or six games out of nine? They’ve only done that once the last two seasons: a sweep vs GT and then two of three on the road at Clemson last year.
Will this team go quietly into the night? Absolutely not; they will be heard from down the stretch. Despite how high the ceiling is, this group has not been able to string together multiple weeks of playing up to their potential, so it’s hard to suddenly think they will as this season enters do-or-die time.
